New Zealand dollar fell to its lowest levels in over a year after the central bank reiterated the exchange rate is “unjustified and unsustainable” and added that these are important considerations when assessing whether intervention is feasible. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler said the exchange rate is susceptible to a significant downward adjustment and the bank would welcome a move toward sustainable level.
NZDs is off the near record highs it reached in July but the exchange rate is at exceptional levels compared with its history said Wheeler. NZDs strenght is largely a result of the country’s strong performance relative to other developed nations since the global financial crisis.
Wheeler has made several similar comments over the past few months leading to a speculation that the central bank is poised t intervene in the market to sell NZD. ANZ currency analyst says central bank is clearly stepping up their focus toward the currency and believe it is creating imbalances in the economy at the current level.
Looks like both AUD and NZD is in for some downward pressure for sometime before things turn the other way around. I’ll write some fundamental posts on NZ soon probably by tomorrow /now that I’ve looked at NZD fundamentally they’re not doing as bad as we assumed - talk about speculating on Fonterra pay out cuts to its supplier. I think its worth asking can or do we expect NZD to trade higher against some weaker currencies probably not against the dollar some time in the future when exchange rate lowers their exports will be cheaper in this case their dairy products will be able to compete with Chinese producers gaining back its market share in China. Sounds feasible to me an idea worth exploring…
two good posts, I like them. The very key point for me to take is to let both of AUD and NZD fall a bit and then buy it vs. the weakest currencies. Even if they just float, with a good carry trade we will make money. These trade will be for me very long-term trades. With Mikes article from yesterday, I still think about shorting NZD.
Rookie, Philip adviced to us to change the R% values to -5% and -95% to get more extreme values for the entries. It seems like it is a good idea. That is the only difference to the original Williams system.
Philip,
thanks! Now it is clear! And I also like this trailing stop idea. I refered “more complicated system” to your system what you explained to us It is definitely more complicated than most of the systems. But once it is set up then it hopefully works good! My entry system was easier and I will compare the two, but the early results shows to me that it does worth to invest the time in the new system. Looking forward fot the good results.
I closed almost all my trades. Just wanted to say so next week you are not surprised that I do not have to report too much. It has only to do with a bit changing the trades, margins etc. on my two live account where I trade. No other issues. I opened on my other account XAG/USD already as I think it can be a market bottom. Besides that I only have a AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD open.
My closed trades generated an overall good profit. I reached my all time “biggest major currency pip count trade” with closing my [B]EUR/USD short with +412 pips[/B]! I opened it on 2014.09.03. and sit it through until today, 2014.09.26. All other USD trades generated a great profit too. My larger loss was with the XAG but I am already in it again as I said. Other losses were the last 3 exotic currencies with huge pip numbers but a lot less in value compared to my USD trades. The trades which I will not reenter is the EUR/CHF trade, I still think it is a good idea on a long-term because of the “defence from under” at the 1.20 but EUR is just so extremely weak, it cannot rise and carry trade eats me slowly (ended -38 pips after 38 days of having it open). CAD/CHF long I will also not open, here I made a very small win though (+9 pips).
I am looking forward to enter USD again vs. EUR and CHF as I believe the rally is not over yet.
Thanks for this Mike, Yen is looking so strong do you think its time to sell it?
FE answered you perfectly Rookie with regards %R. The other change is to set the indicator to 4 period instead of the customary 14. Larry Williams himself recommended the 4-period as the best and he invented the indicator.
I liked your posts on AUD and NZD. Although doesn’t the two sound like they will diverge? with AUD looking to raise interest rates and NZD saying the currency still remains high? You have been doing a good job giving us a bird’s-eye view on the Forex World. You have discussed China many times and I wanted to ask you, what do you think of the impending change of Central Bank Governor? what does it reflect and how will it affect commodity currencies in your opinion?
Hi guys.
I was just sitting here thinking. We’re at the end of the week now, and I remember I made a comment of what I thought the week might look like. And there it is above.
So, what did happen?
Summary.
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
GBP////GBP///////AUD///////JPY////////
JPY/////EUR///////CAD///////GBP///////
EUR////CHF///////USD///////USD///////
CHF////USD///////NZD///////EUR///////
USD////JPY///////GBP////////CHF///////
NZD////AUD//////EUR////////CAD///////
AUD////CAD//////JPY/////////AUD///////
CAD////NZD//////CHF////////NZD///////
M +15////M +15////C +13/////M +15
Well we can bet that the Majors are gonna take it. Was right about that.
I’m glad Philip was right about the pound!
JPY took a day.
This week has really been a Major vs. Comm doll week. Look at how they are laid out. Grouped so perfectly!
It’s not usually like that.
So, actually I was pretty much on the money with my thinking huh?
And what’s gonna happen today? Any profit taking in order?
“Talk to me Goose” …One of my favorite sayings, from the movie Top Gun, (from the 80’s) with Tom Cruise and his partner (co pilot, named Goose) scrambling in a dog fight, in their fighter jet. Loved that movie.
I think what will happen today is USD takes the day so your prediction turns 100% true and we will then call you a wizard.
I have to say I’m really glad I stumbled upon this group. You guys area good bunch. Everyone of us has his specialty and does it perfectly. We are also always providing criticism to one anther’s work to drive each other forward. I haven’t worked or seen a better team and I can’t wait to see what we will do next.
Good point! Good idea!
We know that Friday’s a turn around day.
JPY surely doesn’t stay up on top 2 days in a row.
They corrected some now, and maybe the big money will beat up on them against whoever they are riding with.
Hey boys…it is getting down to the end of the month. Let’s see, today’s the 26th. Next week is 29th and 30th.
So we should keep that in mind also. Like what might be the play.
I call on Peter, “come on Peter, take the mic and talk to us” about what we need to be mindful in these last few days of the month.
P.S…
Philip, I can’t agree with you more, about this group. And a big part also is YOU being here. Cause now I am amongst 4 genius’. (Peter being the oldest genius) :27:
I think very highly of you guys. That’s all.
I do not think Peter will talk too much today as today is Friday and he does not trade Fridays. Although he might give us good tips to make some pips. As you said it is month end so we will pay attention, talk about our month and fix in the beginning of next week and hopefully will make pips on it just like last month!
I talked to you! (sounds like indians talking to each other)
I can only promise you, you shouldn’t make any worries what comes next. The issue is under control in good hands. So I just share the upcoming short-term plan:
continuously analyse and discuss the COT report as it is the basic for determining our bias (we are here the farest but can still be optimized)
using your new entry technique to see how it works (under test)
searching for a better exit strategy than what we currently use (you mentioned two earlier, I also have one; we need to test them)
someone should write down all results in an excel sheet and post the weekly and accumulated results (this is not in progress)
extand our analysis and trades to other markets
find the weak points of the system and correct them
after we make the whole process a lot more efficient, we will produce a document for it to summarize every single step and make it clear how to use it. It can be call the flowsForExchangeMikepetermaPhiliprookie System or just FFMPPR System
I have the further plans also already in my mind but they take a long time. The testing, optimization and efficiency for all the different stages are the most important tasks at this moment.
Mike…I would actually prefer the comeback of the commdolls and some profit taking especially on USDJPY
I’ve got something on USD rally I’ll get it up tomorrow something that we should be wary of I think in the weeks to come.
I can’t agree with you more Philip on the teamwork that we have here. I’m thinking it must have been fate. I mean how often does this happen we’re not even in close vicinity all we’ve got is this thread thats how we’ve been working together and yet seeing how dedicated each one of us leads me to believe it must have been fate really guys!
We’re in good hands guys ;p our captain FE… I might have to change my name when it comes a time where we’ll have to name the system FE… who would want a system that says rookie
Well, here we go with the total, so far. (1100 GMT)
GBP/NZD— +471
GBP/CHF— +114
GBP/JPY---- -19
(USD/CAD)-- +140
That’s over 700 pips!!
Major over a Comm.
Major over a Major.
Major over a Major.
Major over a Comm.
I’m glad this works out that it’s a Major dominating week. So, if we get that part right, it’s probably gonna be a win. (I always like to have that in mind)
I will read the rest of your posts but I wanted to report that the rumors are of a revision up on GDP to 4.9%. Despite that I still closed my short-term AUDUSD short for 87 pips of profit. My longterm one is still open with more than 300 pips of profit.
I closed another trade, GBPCHF for a profit of 200 pips. It is at its yearly highs and refusing to break that level. May be a good GDP result next week will do the trick but I just wanted to move on with my life.
My total profit on trades closed this week is 232 pips. I’m taking the rest of the day off and will report to you guys after the US session.
Hi Guys - just had a look at today’s action, no trading - Friday and end of Sep near, also Qtr end)
USD/JPY is interesting, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a push for 110, maybe just fall short of it.
It is at that point that there may be some shorting on USD.
The COT set up on USD now is almost identical to GBP some months ago - June 29, comms were at an extreme short, price was at 7200 , there were calls for 8000, you just had to buy cable on every pull back and win, there was talk of interest rate rises ahead.
The number 4 on Zulu got there by trading only cable and by just buying it, (now somewhere around 9000 in ranking)
At present the comms are an extreme low on the Euro, extreme long on USDX, there is talk of interest rate rises…
I know I’m probably completely wrong, and most def a voice in the wilderness, but I just have this sneaking feeling that I’ve seen this before.
Anyways, only time will tell, in the meantime I’ll go along with the trend, it is after all my friend.
It is definitely more complicated than most of the systems. But once it is set up then it hopefully works good! My entry system was easier and I will compare the two, but the early results shows to me that it does worth to invest the time in the new system. Looking forward fot the good results.
