FE, you raised a very valid point. The influence of the S&P on JPY takes a slightly roundabout route.
The S&P influences the Nikkei 225 which in turn influences USD/JPY which in turn has an overall influence on Yen direction.
BTW the reason I said that the push down last night was ‘suspect’ was the timing. I have noticed that if there is a ‘break’ of a line when all the sessions are closed then it is often a ‘fakeout’.
The reason for the push, imo, was a large sell order went through at that time, as indeed did another later in Asia - that’s why breakout orders can cause headache if they are activated during session close.
Some people refer to this price behaviour as pin bars or price ‘rejections’ with the meaning that the lower price was rejected by the market. I always just see that there were no more sell orders at the lower price.
Two charts below, current 1hr of Nikkei and USD/JPY
Apparently the tick volume analysis is best done on lower TFs 1h or so than daily. And you want to have more confluence factors rather than just the volume itself. Try it out and let me know how it goes! I’m trying it out on 4H TF with the fibs to determine the turnaround points end of retracement and continuation of trend along with reading the candles, you know I’m having trouble with my entries.
NZD will get down eventually we’ll just have to make it to FOMC meeting I hope. Hang in there! I’ve also got two going on NZD.
Good trading guys! and have nice day everyone.
I will be out for the day. I need a break. Things to think through. About my method. And I’ll be back with some write up tomorrow or the day ;p
What I take out of this one is how the AUD is strong, for being a Major day. I think there might be a divergence somewhere in there. CAD dropped because of some real bad news. NZD dropped…well…BECAUSE THEIR SUPPOSED TO!! ahem****sorry
But somethings up with AUD. Even if it was risk off, how did they get up there, in between JPY and CHF?
I think someone has plans with them coming on up.
Ok boys. I have some catching up to do.
I’ll leave you with a 0730 shot for today.
Check out the gold. Australia is the third biggest gold producer in the world, so I guess it must have something to do with that. Oh, and New Zealand is also a large producer of gold too, btw (ranked 25?)
But I think this intermarket thingies work best for longer TFs. The rise in gold may have just meant that USD weakens.
nice analysis. I like the chart from Peter and flows a lot. There is no better way for intermarket correlation than these. Mike also gave great info on sentiment. Just like rookie, I also entered USD long trades before FOMC which is in ten minutes. The currencies are rising. I am still not 100% that the retracement is over for USD. I just do not have a very clear bias. I entered the trades because I though there is a good chance for the USD to get stronger before the report. Now the question is to take profit before the meeting, of wait for the news and close after it. I guess a bullish news might have a larger chance than bearish but as USD is not strong, I will definitely close after the news my trade, if not before. But definitely I am not planning for a long term trade now.
I do see everyone is taking a rest a bit this week but it is ok. We need to rest sometimes. I said earlier that I am busy these weeks, Peter tests a new system, rookie takes the day off, I guess Philip is trading hard, and flows with Mike keep the thread alive in the tough times. Thanks guys and good luck to those who take the action in 7 minutes!
Yeah, stupid system, it gave me a sell signal on the usdx at 7.00am this morning - did I trade it?
No, that would have been way too smart, and as for demo account, I just cannot get warmed up for it - right, deep breath - demo is real, demo is real, demo is real.
I’m off to work on this thing, demo is real, demo is real…
Oh, they gave me £10k for the bother wow, should have done this before.
well your new system just gave you a good signal If it helps your post is about my greatest weakness and Mikes greatest strength. He can trade on demo, I can’t. For me it does not matter how small the money is but it has to be real. If it is demo I could also say: demo is real, demo is real, demo is real…
Good luck and when you are ready, we will be also ready to see your work!
I’m kinda new to this BabyPips forum stuff, although I’ve been an active member of MeetPips for about 2 years now. Anyway, I’m a devoted follower of the COT report so this thread ought to be interesting. I’m glad to be here and will post my analysis tomorrow since it’s pretty late in Hungary
welcome in the thread. We analyse the COT report on the weekend, share the results, discuss it and post trade ideas for the upcoming week. We manage our trades and discuss the news and our running trades during the week.
In case you stay with us, there is always some work going on so you will be busy :-),
I just took a quick glance over weekly gold chart and apparently gold is resting on a major support level. From what I’ve read weekly support levels are usually pretty serious and there sure was some buyers that had been eyeing for this level for some long positions… wonder how far gold will go ?
Oh why did I jump on dollar longs that quick! :eek:
Silly me for thinking I’ve got it…
Intermarket correlation looks like a reliable tool to gauge dollar strength. As for silver it has already broke through weekly support and heading down. Well its about time for gold to catch up with its buddy…
I think it’s too early to say. The way I understand silver & gold relationship is that the ratio between them will favor gold. I’m not sure about which following which, but the kind of trades I can make out of this relationship is to short silver when silver price is way over or getting too close to gold.
So for the week the back and forth looks like this.
Monday: C +12
Tuesday: M +6
Wednes: C +5
And once again the NZD has struck again, being on top. They have absolutely either been on top or bottom, and has been alternating 8 straight trading days now.
Well, I’m taking a major hit guys. When I got home I got out of the NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trades. Losing big time.
But, I’m in on the AUD/JPY. Going up. That only now. I’m gonna stick with that one for a while.
As promised here’s my take on Gold. But before we get busy analyzing, I’d like to present the way I go on about my trading. So, I learned the ropes from Steve Briese and Larry Williams. I’m sure you’ve read their books. Since I don’t trust in charting services, I constructed the indicators presented in Williams’ books by myself. I use an Excel sheet and it looks something like this.
There’s nothing fancy there, only the basic tools.
Commercial & Non-Commercial Net positions for the last 3 years.
COT Comm & Non- Comm Index (3 years)
COT Comm Movement Index
Comm Long & Short + Open Interest chart.
Comm Long & Short / OI chart
Willco Indicator (1,5 years) (was pretty difficult to figure out the formula)
Okay, enough of my method. Let’s get to work.
Gold
It’s pretty obvious that we are at a major support zone. The price hit the 1180 level 3 times so far, each hit met with less Commercial buying & Non-Commercial selling.
It’s important to note that overall OI has been declining in 2014. Low OI readings are usually symptoms of a bottom. Commercials have been buying heavily into the decline, increasing their longs compared to OI from 35% to 40 % while reducing their shorts from 65% to 50%. (Bullish sign again)
If we take a look at Willco (CP / OI Index), it tells us that Commercials are favoring the long side (net 75% long compared to the last 1,5 years).
Your analysis and charts alike do look fancy to me ;p. But I like how you constructed your own indicator on excel from scratch. FE should have something to say on that. But first off allow me to take you through what we do here briefly.
FE /the captain/ and I analyse COT report on a weekly basis, FE covers specs and I do the comparison specs and commercials and occasional fundamental write ups. Mike brings on the stats along with majors and comm split. Philip is working on developing a system for crosses. Flows has joined in recently.
And last but not least we’ve got Peter, he’s the wise one we all look up to him. When he posts something you make sure to write it down on your note and keep it with you. You’ll know what I mean. We cover from COT data , fundamentals to intermarket correlation. Quite a lot actually. And the rest I’ll leave it for you.
Good morning fellas.
BB…welcome!
Wow. Looks like you’ve done your homework. I’m impressed.
Stick around. Would love to hear your opinions on what’s going on in the market. What do you watch? Anything in particular? How far out is your scope on the market? Do you see the big picture, with the different indices and market correlations, or are you zoomed in on something particular, like the commodities?
Talk to me. What do you think on the AUD/JPY? I remember we mentioned about the AUD not too long ago.
I think they are the underdog that just could be on the comeback now. Especially after the bad news that just came out for them. And their on the way up! That tells me something.
I like that idea flows, can you keep an eye on that ratio for us from time to time?
Rookie it is a very strong support level. from an intermarket perspective, FE and Peterma would know better, its a ripe time to buy gold with the weakness seen in dollar as well as the bounce in Euro. It is the biggest bounce since May. AUD is also going up.
I was planning to take a day off today. But I couldn’t resist checking our thread. Well here I am. I better post something. No write ups for today but few coming tomorrow including this thursdays FOMC minutes of meeting.
I have closed my NZDUSD, AUDUSD and EURUSD with a loss again. Stay strong guys! Mike! we’re going to get through this. I have been thinking a lot.
I was watching this film called catch a trader, that shows how hedge funds trade with ‘inside news’. These guys aren’t even looking at gartleys, or any other fancy indicators. They simply place a long order thats worth of millions right before the positive news at a bargain price and double or even triple the amount in a matter of minutes or even seconds. How do they know ? Crystall ball ? intuition ? They get inside news. I know its unfair. But thats how it is.
I’m not sure if hedge funds trade currencies but in currency trading there’re banks and institutions on the other side playing against us, the fact that banks have control over short term price makes things even harder than it already is. No wonder why its hard for a retail trader to stay in the game with consistent profit. For an outsider it seems like a battle that can’t be won.
And I’ve realized after all this what we do is probably the smartest way to play along with the big guys. From now on I will be keeping track of every annoucement from central banks, minutes of meetings on my note. I’ll be posting them here regularly and I’ll try to be on time. We knew Fed officials were getting concerned about strong dollar, and how latest payrolls data really meant. But we’ve looked past all this well I certainly did and opened couple of long dollar trades.
Look at EURUSD guys, euro has been ignoring bad data and keeps climbing up, I’m thinking its probably the banks that are marking euro higher to entice the retailers to give more momentum and once they like what they see ‘the price’ they go short wiping out the retailers that were fooled and went long.
While I do think COT data is crucial it still is few days old, and while there won’t be any drastic change from week to week on COT positioning. A lot happens during the week, like banks or instutions coming in marking the price up or down. I think we need to shift our attention to the latter , and try to find ways to figure out when banks or instituitions are buying or selling. Then we’re more than halfway to get there. Very close.
wow, should have done this before.
