Hi rookie,
your mood changes quiet fast 
Well, dont get upset. I think you might just have to be more patient and might use wider stop losses. I was sitting on my JPY short trades since 5 days, I was thinking it should come back and last night the Japanese brought it back for me! So use COT for the overall view not for a couple of hours. Of course it can be good that you closed the trades but a reversal can also happen at any time!
We see what action we get today.
Hi FE,
Well Iām a little embarassed if I came off that way :8:. Itās just that two consecutive losses have shaken things a little bit. And as I always do Iāve looked back on things and tried to find where things went wrong.
You guys /peterma and yourself :)/ have been discussing how non commercials COT can give you general feel of the market rather than a timing tool. Well I read that through but havenāt really absorbed it all in until I went that through myself and went aha!. You never really realize until you go through it yourself. And same goes for forex.
Just for an update I think Iāll tweak things a little regarding my system. I do a lot of short term trades and Iāve just realized non commercials and commercials COT doesnāt really help much with my short term trades. So Iāll work on a different set of system for long term trades that uses COT as a guide.
Good luck with your trades !
Hi guysā¦
Well, this is what happened yesterday.
USD, CHF, CAD all tied for strongest (yesterday)
EUR, JPY second
GBP third
AUD, NZD tied for weakest
NOTES: CAD strongest comm.
Majors too the market
Much no changes, mostly at the top
Today: End of Asia: JPY strongest
USD getting stronger
GBP getting stronger: also the biggest mover
NZD weaker
AUD and CAD not a whole lot changed
EUR and CHF a tad weaker
Now: Things have changed since london opened. Most notables are:
USD is getting much stronger. EUR and CHF weaker still. GBP got stronger.
That is the obvious. I love to see whatās been going on. Itās the flow of the market. Plus, I donāt compile these stats for nothing. For me. But now, I can show someoneā¦YOU GUYS!
Look FE, Iāve kind of always thought that the COT report was for the longer term perspective, as opposed to the short term trading. BUT, I DO LIKE TO SEE WHATāS GOING ON IN THAT at the end of the week. Thanks to you.
Stay with me. Letās remember that the market sentiment has to do with a lot of things. Iām here giving you the strong/weak flow. And it is undeniable that there is trending always going on. I like to see it unfold from the beginning of the week to the end. And jump inā¦oooopsā¦I mean, take opportunities, when they arise throughout the week, with tight stop losses in place.
P.Sā¦ Iām still waiting to see NZD move higher. Hopefully around the end of the trading day,(asia open for wed.)
Weāll see.
Mike
Hi Mike,
great analysis, I like how you summarize with very few words what is strong and what is weak. Almost all market movements make sense for me. I get a bit of headache though because of the extreme weakness of the EUR. It is clear that EUR is very weak but after such a weakness I though a reversal has to come but it did not come until now. There is something similar going on with the NZD. NZD trades are not doing to good as NZD is weak currently. The difference is though that I think NZD has a lot higher probablity to rebound than the EUR. For EUR trades it seems like currently that my option is to decide at which level can I get out for the smallest loss.
GBP is doing what I expected and JPY is still influenced by geopolitical issues. Now we have a tier 1 report in a half an hour. We will see if we can take advantage of that one.
Keep up guys the good work and if you trade short term, do it in the direction of the long-term trend. Not like I did with EUR long positions and now I am stuck with themā¦
Good luck!
Hey Mike!
I liked your idea that youāve posted earlier last week that when you spot a trend youāll be in it. Strong versus the weak. Keep the stats coming!
I think Iām finally starting to put things into perspective. Before it was just random thoughts and ideas cluttered everywhere I was yet to make sense of things. I agree that COT is more for long term perspective but like you said its good to have the bigger picture in mind.
Iāll do post my share on a weekly basis as well if that helps at all
Hi guys!
Here goes.
Yesterday results: AUD on top, strongest.
USD, JPY, GBP, CAD, NZD all tied and equal on the strong/weak barometer (interesting)
EUR, CHF tied for weakest.
Today: End of asia session: AUD strongest by far
CAD next strongest
JPY, USD next: with USD dropping a bit
GBP stayed the same
NZD coming up the line, getting a bit more stronger
EUR, CHF bringing up the rear, with CHF a bit more weaker
London: things have changed. GBP had dropped a lot.
I havenāt bee able to keep up since the open of london. But have noticed what happened with their news. Sentiment has went south for GBP.
So, thereās the flow of things.
Iāve made many many pips off of EUR and CHF this week, going south. Iām having a good week. Locked in profits, and still in on the trending ones. Did lose some off of GBP, but minimal compared to gains.
Ohā¦manā¦I wanted to show you this weeks major/comm split.
Monday Majors +9, Tues Comms +9. So, Comms evened up the score. Itās interesting to me! I think the comms are gonna come back pretty good. Butā¦weāll see how it turns out at the end.
Mike
Hi everyone!
Important Info!!! Warning! Important Info!!!
Yesterday I was thinking the whole afternoon and at night what is happening in the markets. I was checking traders like you and me (retail traders) and most of them are losing money. I checked fundamentals, technical levels and nothing helped to make some pips. I thought market sentiment is leading the markets but I did not get with what king of a logic.
Now I have an explanation, who know if it is the right one. At least in my opinion this should be the closest to the reality. As the geopolitical conflicts started, safe havens started to get stronger (USD, JPY and CHF). This is normal. And many traders like me went against the flow because it āshould get quietā sometime and then it is great to trade the retracment. However there was no retracement until now. I did not understand why is JPY and USD getting still stronger although their economy is not that great and the conflicts should not give such a continuous and long boost to them.
The first what I did of course was to be neutral on my ealier bullish bias currencies: GBP and NZD. I closed all of my long positions in these currencies and also all short JPY positions. Maybe too late but still. It can be that JPY and USD are priced in but I do not want to risk it.
Then I looked at the currencies and found 3 weak currencies: GBP, EUR and CHF! The three European currencies!!! This was the first time I thought it is not JPY and USD strength like it was in the beginning, but GBP, EUR and CHF weakness! But why are all three currencies weak of this geopolitical problem when there is such a huge difference in the current state of the 3 economies?
I found out it might not be the war but the answer is the sanctions on Russia! As a consequence, in long-term the European economy will be hurt because of these sanctions. If there is no trade between Europe and Russia, it hurts both sides. Then it became obvious that EUR hurts most because it is the largest trading partner of Russia from the 3 European major currencies. Then comes CHF because it follows the EUR. And last but not least GBP weakens also because even if they have a strong economy it does not change the fact that their situation will get worse as well. I think this is the reason why economies do not act on news like they āshouldā and that in many currency pairs support and resistance levels basically do not exist.
I do not know how long these rallies last and what is the next move. I changed my bias completely in the morning, closed my trades and made short term trades with GBP/USD shorts. I do short-term trades now like rookie and tight stop losses if the situation changes.
Like Mikes favorite sentence: I try to see the big picture.
We have to see though when the gib picture changes again.
Hi Mike,
this is funny, we wrote at the same time basically the same thing!!!
The only difference is that your week is better than mine. I give my account number for some $$$
I agree that comdolls will be good, but more because non of them are in Europe and not because they are strong.
GBP press conference in 15 minutes. If it is bearish I go with the flow, if it is bullish I will short GBP on the top as I think it will weaken!
Good trades further on! And thanks for the stats!
Hey FE
Great post there. Learning a lot from you guys!
I agree that EUR and CHF is slacking quite a bit. In the meantime USD JPY and CAD is gaining strength. And looks like NZD isnāt going to jump higher anytime soon at least against stronger ones.
Mikeās analysis was pretty much spot on gotta say!
I went back to COT non commercials data after tuesdays loss to see if there was any indication that could explain why NZD didnāt jump any higher and why CAD is gaining strength. By the way again I agree to most of analysis from a fundamental risk on and off view FE /how should I address that?/. But I thought there might be something in COT data that we may have overlooked and that could give some sort of explanation. Hereās what I found. Not sure if it provides any value to my question at all.
Take a look guys!
Iām referring to dailies
[B]AUD[/B] has been enjoying a nice upward move against NZD, CHF, EUR, JPY even USD and CAD
Net /long/ commercials increased to 39,743 /from 36,609/ highest since 2013 July
Open interest increased to 105,209 /from 101,860/
Long position in % increased to 69,47 /from 68%/
[B]CAD[/B] is turning around to an upward move against JPY, doing well against with EUR and CHF, looks like in a tug of war with USD
Net /long/ commercials increased to 15,621 /from 10,295 quite an increase!/ note that net position was minus as of june 24. There was a turnaround and net longs have taken control since 1 july.
Open interest increased 129,787 /from 128,555/ highest since 1 apr.
Long position in % increased to 57,43 /from 54,8/
[B]NZD[/B] have been doing quite bad against USD,CAD,JPY,AUD and GBP. But strong against EUR
Net /long/ commercials 15,453 /from 14,416 slight increase/ highest net long was 20,693 for the last year.
Open interest decreased to 32,879 /from 36,123/
Long position in % increased to 70,5 /from 68,9/
In conclusion
Note that when I mean certain currency has been doing well or bad iām referring to dailies chart. So the time period usually cover few months or at least about a month. Thus Iām still looking at COT non commercials data as a long term perspective tool.
Iām hitting my head why Iāve overlooked AUD and CAD COT non commercials data. Thereās so much learn as regards to how to read COT non commercials data properly. Hopefully this is a progress.
If you look at CAD net position compared to previous week net long has increased quite a bit and there has been a turnaround in net position from minus to plus since 1 july.
While NZD net position changes hasnāt been that drastic like CAD and AUD but still managed to increase slightly. However note that the highest net long was 20,639. I havenāt been following NZD back in many months so Iām not sure if thereās any fundamental or risk on off reason to explain high readings behind net long 20,639. Still this is a threshold for NZD for the last year. Like FE said NZD economy is not in the best shape.
Iām not placing any trades this week. Thereās so much to go through before placing a trade. Letās see what will bring next COT non commercials data on this friday.
Hopefully Iāll be able to look from a different angle that will somehow explain the future and both past moves. Means more green pips!
Good luck guys
Hi rookie,
thanks for the nice post!
It is good that you look at the COT now on the longer term!
Especially I am stuck with the New Zealand Dollar. I will definitely not trade that. I had big losses with it last night. Peterma might explain it to us. I do not get that one. There is nothing better for a currency than rate hike. That gives always the largest boost. And what happend yesterday? Rate hike! It is a clear cut, the falling happens because the governor said there wont be further rate hikes soon. Ok, obvious it is a bad news but it was expected so with logic I thought it is also integrated in the price. Well, it wasnt. I was in some trade and stop loss did not occur because of high volume. Then I thought there will be a reversal but it is not comingā¦ It is a surprise for me because NZD still has the best carry trade what is an advantage and not even to mention that its economy is still doint a lot better than other economies. On the other side the Governor said the currency is unsustainable and too high so we can expect a long depreciation.
Well that is a very interesting mixā¦ I stay away and getting those pips back with HUF trades
Regarding to the new COT, keep in mind the choppy markets though! Do not forget that it is from last Wednesday until this Tuesday. I know you know that. Just wanted to be sure that this week might not be the best for future forecasts.
Have a nice day!
Great information guys thank you all :).
Hi fellasā¦
What a shocker, about NZD. Now what? It was only a few weeks ago that NZD did go through a major downswing. After up for a long time. Well, as I look at my records, it was around the end of May through mid June that they really dropped off the map. And so now, I just wonder if that will be the case. So, Iām watching them with that in mind. Big tumble.
I just want you guys to know that I appreciate all your posts. I canāt get around to telling you that except with a ālikeā. Letās keep it up. Itās fun to know whatās going on in this jungle. Oh, and FE, what a great observation yesterday about Europe! That was very insightful.
And now, I will give you a summary flow of what happened lately. (I hope this is not getting redundant. It IS after the fact. But, I only do this because I want to know the FLOW of what everyoneās doing.) I need to remember that. (In fact, Iām just reminding myself of that).
Wed. daily results:
AUD by far the strongest, trending higher against all (8hr chart look)
CAD second place, trending against most of them
CHF, USD, JPY tied for third
EUR, only higher than NZD
GBP real weak
NZD ā¦donāt even have to mention
Notes: After asia, and beginning of london.
Comm's out did Majors by +3. So, they have the edge by a little bit up to this point in the week.
Well it's hard to tell the biggest mover, cause AUD just climbing, and NZD dropping. All eyes were on them mostly.
CAD strong still.
JPY holding up also.
GBP was doing ok, until bad news. Looking like sentiment dropping today.
USD still on the strong side. Not dropping any. Not gaining either.
EUR, CHF is same, but have been rising some this week.
NZD well, you know. They are trending lower against all.
So, there you have it. I have my eyes on the NZD. Also watching the GBP. Big news tomorrow, gdp. I just wonder what the feeling is gonna be on the approach to it.
Thanks guys for listening.
Mike
Hi guys.
Yesterday: USD, EUR, : tied for strongest
CHF : close third
CAD : fourth
AUD, GBP, JPY : tied
NZD : weakest
Notes: Majors took it from the Comms ā +8. So, that will put the edge to the majors this week so far. (+5)
USDāstrong. Getting stronger still, now into london.
CADāholding up pretty good. Considered strong.
EUR, CHF --strengthened thurs. but after the news in london, now weakening much.
GBPāweak, tried to strengthen a bit going into the gdp news, but in-line expectations are taking them down now. Sentiment is not good for them going into the last of it.
JPY --weak, no strength.
AUD-- weakened, probably due to a lot of profit taking on the homestretch.
NZD-- STILL dropping.
I think the mover is the USD. Iāve been mentioning it, and the news has been fueling the fire. What happens today with the data could send them going up. Cause no one else is. Comms taking a hit, no other major is shining.
Itās the slow and steady that seems to fit USD lately.
Weāll see.
Mike
Hi everyone,
I guess I change my weekly procedure thanks to Mike! Until now there were 2 steady posts from me: 1. the Weekly Review on Friday and 2. the COT Report analysis on Sunday.
Now I have to say honostly Mike is doing a daily analysis and as far as I know we will also get in a post the weekly strength analysis + Majors vs. Comdolls. This makes my review useless because Mike explains the same things with great stats. This means less work for me and I can concentrate more on other thoughts, normals answers and posts and keeping up more with the market.
The COT analysis will follow of course, however I am not available on computer this weekend so I guess it comes unfortunately too late, early next week.
Have a great last trading session for the week and enjoy the weekend!
I got your back FE!
I would like to throw in more sentiments sometime. Like world events, even talk about the data that always comes out.
But, as long as we are looking at the big picture, and seeing the correlated movements, we should be good.
Mike
Hi guys,
Hereās the update of COT non commercials report as of 22.July.2014
[B]AUD[/B]
Net position: 38,793 from 39,743
Open interest: 109,341
Net long has decreased by 950 from previous weeks figure while open interest has increased quite a bit by 4,132. As Mike has noted earlier on his post looks like AUD long position holders have closed their longs for some profit taking. Still AUD remains somewhat strong with 68.37% still holding on to their longs. However note that last weekās /as of 18 July/ net long which came at 39,743 is so far the highest since july 2013. And now we are seeing a decrease in net long though not substantial itās good to keep that in mind for anyone whoās thinking of going long with AUD. Short term long trades might be a safer bet.
[B]CAD[/B]
Net position: 20,581 increased from 15,621 by 4,960
Open interest: 129,188
While there was a small drop in number of open interest buyers have added on their longs quite substantially. We have been seeing a nice steady increase in net longs since 1 July since buyers have taken control. And as I mentioned in my previous weekās post CAD has been dominated by net shorts since July 2013 but turned to net longs /positive/ from 1 July. CAD is definately gaining some strength as buyers add on their positions steadily.
[B]CHF[/B]
Net position: -7,380 increased from -6,262
Open interest: 38,359
CHF has been mostly dominated by buyers since July 2013 with negative net position readings of only 14 weeks. And last weeks figure -7,380 has been the lowest since July 2013. Sellers have definately been in control for the last 8 weeks. Longs have dropped down slightly while majority holds shorts. However as opposed to CAD and other currencies. CHF appears more volatile with sudden drastic changes in ratio of non commercials long and short positions.
[B]GBP[/B]
Net position: 27,497 decreased from 38,770 by 11,273
Open interest: 241,155 decreased from 255,115
GBP net long has decreased quite a bit by 11,273 thought longs still remain above 60%. Since july 1 2014 GBP net long has been decreasing progressively at a steady rate might mean the reversal might be coming soon. How soon ? Well for that we have to keep an eye on fundamentals and other factors that have an impact of GBP. And longs have been in control for much of the weeks since july 2013.
[B]NZD[/B]
Net position: 15,132 decreased from 15,453 by 321
Open interest: 32,728 increased from 32,873
While net longs saw small decrease long position holders in % have increased to 70,49% from 68,4% last weeks figure sends mixed signals from what we have been seeing on our charts with NZD. Like I mentioned in my last weekās post highest net long was at 20,693 for NZD since july 2013 and buyers having been in control for most of the time except only for 5 weeks there was negative net position readings.
[B]EUR[/B]
Net position: -88,828 increased from -62,846
Open interest: 339,706 increased from 310,661
EUR net short has increased quite drastically by 25,977 while at the same time net longs in % have dropped further down to 28,34% from 31,7% with some increase in open interest. Last weeks net position reading which came at -88,828 so far the highest since july 2013. While it seem EUR has been getting weaker and weaker but how further can EUR drop down to ? Net non commercials position turned to negative readings since 13 May 2014 and have been increading steady.
[B]JPY[/B]
net position: -53,916 decreased from -62,948 by 9,032
open interest: 162,029
JPY net non commercials position has always been negative since july 2013. So another negative reading for JPY as of 22 july is nothing new anymore. However while net shorts have decreased long position holders in % have increased to 15,38% from last weeks figure 12,5%. JPY might be gaining some strenght however is it sustainable ?
Conclusion
From what I can see from COT non commercials data CAD appears to be gaining strenght. Non commercials net position took a reversal to positive from months of minus reading on 1 July just few weeks ago. For now to me CAD appears to be the strongest of all based on my findings.
While CAD might be strongest of all but AUD and JPY equally appears to be doing better than the rest. So i might consider taking short term long trades with these pairs.
Iām not sure what to make of NZD data. So for now NZD to the side.
CHF and especially EUR is losing strenght with negative readings since may 2014. I might want to look for short term short trades with these two after I go through my charts.
Good luck guys! Keep it updated!
Hi rookie,
as I wrote earlier I do not much time this weekend but fast I look through what you work with Mike. I am a lucky guy because Mike makes half of my work and rookie does something similar as the other half of my work!
So I decided now only to share with you early my view on Mikes analysis, share with you my thought, hopefully you discuss yours with me and I can tomorrow see what Mike writes to us.
[B]AUD:[/B] same
[B]CAD:[/B] very interesting. I am also bullish but the price move lately does not confirm our view.
[B]CHF:[/B] as EUR is bearish, I am bearish too. I agree with you.
[B]GBP:[/B] exactly, I am waiting very long for the reversal. But I am still waiting for confirmation
[B]NZD[/B]: I really hope that NZD gets positive again as I am in some long positions open waiting for a reversal of the current negative trend. Hope it comes soon. I agree.
[B]EUR[/B]: I agree again. I have a bearish long-term bias on EUR.
[B]JPY[/B]: most important part of your analysis. And also the part for where I do not pay any attention because JPY was only moving on risk off sentiment. We cannot take JPY value for long term!
Conclusion:
CAD: right!
NZD: I think you are also right. I plan here though a short-term trade because after such a huge loss I think there has to be a short-term up correction. For long-term hmmm very tought. I have on COT bearish bias but the strength of the economy and the highest carry trade does not confirm my bearish bias. Hard to trade.
CHF and EUR: great that we are such the same here as well. Makes me a good feeling. I even would say that a short-term bias can be extended on long-term.
I was only missing one part of the great analysis:
Please do not forget the changing market sentiment of the last 2 weeks! It can change at this time everything in a couple of hours! I am in a JPY long trade which is against my bias but I expect on Tuesday new sanctions against Russia, which is bad for all European currencies and could boost again short-term JPY long gains. If this does not happen on Tuesday, I close my JPY trades.
Besides market sentiment, I really enjoyed what you wrote. I am interested though to see what trade setups would you find good for next week, assuming that market conditions would be normal.
Hey FE,
Hope youāre having a great weekend! Iām glad that you guys are finding my interpretation somewhat useful. Itās a progress
While my part may seem similar to half of what you have been doing I would still very much appreciate your point of view and would like you to put in some fundamentals. I agree that market sentiment /fundamentals/ changes can be sudden and quite drastic. And thereās no way to know these changes beforehand. So we have to be flexible and adapt to different market condition with ever changing market sentiment. I guess all this should come with experience ?
New sanctions against Russia on tuesday ? what time will that be out in your timezone ? If thatās the case I guess I should be wary of placing any trades involving JPY and EUR, CHF and GBP.
Iām waiting for Mikeās part as well to put together my trade plans for next week. /for confirmation/
Iām looking at EURCAD and CADCHF 4H charts for short/long set ups. For now I donāt see any entry triggers weāll see how it goes during the week. But I like what Iām seeing on EURCAD 4H chart more , CADCHF looks very choppy while EURCAD looks neat. If you know what I mean hehe 
GBPUSD is already heading down havenāt looked at this pair for a while now. But again the chart doesnāt look as neat as EURCAD /referring to 4H/ Iāll see how it develops during the weak. Maybe Iām being too picky 
Iām eyeing to go long on AUDUSD as well. 4H charts appears as choppy as CADCHF and GBPUSD but I have been trading this pair for a while now. I guess Iām used to seeing this kind of pattern on 4H and have somehow adapted to these uneven patterns.
And lastly you mentioned that you have some NZD long trades open and waiting for a reversal. While reversal or just a correction is bound to happen sometime in the future have you seen any signs of reversal on your charts ? I have just remembered this quote ātrade what you see not what you want to seeā. Sometime in the future reversal might happen but when ? and how long do you have to wait ? For me at this point in my trading journey Iām very uneasy about keeping positions for a week or longer. And I trade with tight SLs. Whenever a pair head against where I thought it would I close my positions take my losses and look opportunity elsewhere. Though it may and many times have actually came to the direction that I was trading few days or weeks after I closed my trades. I can simply go back in when a nice set ups appears instead of holding onto it through these fluctuations.
I agree with your strategy how to go about with your open JPY trades though!
Hi guysā¦
Iām pretty upset right now. Iāve been writing my report since yesterday, and I just sent it now. But it got lost. (I wanāt signed in, and when I did, it got lost) It was HUGE. So, I must start over. Give me some time. Iāll get it out soon.
These things do happen occasionally take your time! I know how its like had that happen to me once.