COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment

Philip, I now use the ifx simply because it has the zero line.

MT4 do it differently now, with any chart open, top left under “File”, click on “open data folder”.

Then ‘MQL4’ folder, the ‘indicators’ folder and just paste the IFX_Willspread.ex4 file in there and restart mt4.

FE, yes those are on futures, all vs USD.

For Nov:

Sell CAD Nov 7…exit Nov 20
Sell AUS Nov 8 …exit Nov 17
Buy CHF Nov 16…exit Jan 03
Sell USDX Nov 16 exit Jan 04
Buy CAD Nov 21 exit Jan 12
Sell USDX Nov 24 …exit Dec 06
Buy GBP Nov 24 … exit Dec 16
Buy Euro Nov 24 … exit Jan 03
Buy NZD Nov 24 … exit Jan 12

Some crosses to follow.

Credit to Welcome to Moore Research Center

  1. When you say sell CAD that means buy USDCAD or sell USD against CAD?
  2. What is that wicked moving average you are using on your chart? its absolute perfection! it looks like an exponential MA, but what’s the value.
  3. I’m glad you guys sorted out willspread. Next challenge, figuring out Williams forecast cycle, Larry’s top secret weapon.

Hey guys.
Tuesday results.

CAD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
AUD: +6 -1 0///+5 -0 0
NZD: +4 -2 1///+4 -0 1
CHF: +3 -2 2///+0 -2 1
EUR: +3 -3 1///+0 -3 0
GBP: +2 -5 0///+0 -3 0
USD: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
JPY : +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0

Well Comms crushed them : +14
Interesting that yesterday both AUD and CAD were dead last, with NZD on top.
And I hope you all (FE) are taking advantage of the weak JPY. Risk is (was) off!

I did. I’m with GBP/JPY this week, as stated earlier with the end of month play. I’m keeping it running.


Mike

Yeah, they are talking of the futures so they mean buy USD/CAD.

The MA is a 50 simple moving average, it’s a common one on the hr1 stock indicies.

Hi guys,

i haven’t caught up with the thread but wanted to share with you that Copper closed above the daily channel. We have to decide if the breakout is valid. It is on our COT watchlist.

FE

I’m sitting this one out. It’s late for me to take a position.

Hi Peter,

thanks a lot! I wrote them and hang it on my wall. I check it live this time. I give credit to it. I was thinking what kind of strategy they follow. I cannot be the usual technical indicator as they do not say the level to sell but the data. I might think it has to do with the Elliot Wave or the Harmonic patterns because they also forecast the actual data. Although they also forecast the entry level…

Philip,

sell CAD means you sell CAD. It is not the pair. Sell AUD means also, buy USD and sell AUD. Also not the pair but AUD. Hope that helps. And as I read Peter’s post I think the “weird looking indicator” is the SMA :slight_smile: But it does look pretty powerful, I agree with you.

FE

I can only agree with BB, great post Peter, this stuff looks very powerful to me too.

Thanks for sharing,
FE

Hi Mike,

keep us updated with the end of the month action! Yes, I also liked the JPY weakness. Trades are running good, tonight I make though tighter SL before the FOMC Statement. I give some space for spikes but not for complete reversals. If USD would have been just a bit higher on the ranking then it would have fulfilled all my wishes :slight_smile:

How is your month by the way? Could you rebounce to get the pips?

FE

Its a great strategy. The problem I’m having is that my broker does not offer charts for things like bonds or dollar index so it limits my use of the indicator. I’ll see if I can create it on trading view.

Hi Peter,

I have some problems with setting up my Willspread on S&P. I thought I share the problems here as it might help others. I also attach a picture how it looks like at this point.

Issues:

  1. I am not sure what are your exact settings in Oanda mt4. Here is what I have on my charft: FastMAPeriod: 3, SlowMAPeriod: 15, SecondMarket: USD10YUSD and MarketDirectCorrelation: true. I did not change any other original settings in any window. So the first question is if it right or do I have to change some other things?

  2. Is there a list for second markets abbreviations? Above I mentioned 10yr, but I do not know any others. In your post you suggest to use gold and USD index. Well, I tried both but they do not fucntion the way I tried. My try on USD index was “USDX”, and for gold I tried two possibilities: “GOLD” and “XAUUSD”. The gold problem is funny actually because “GOLD” is the default setting of the Willspread but if I just click “ok”, it still does not show anything.

  3. The zero line. For you it is in the middle. As you see, for me it is not. Why is that?

Thanks a lot,
FE

EDIT: with a huge delay but the GOLD Willspread appeared now on my chart. So the only missing element is USD index (maybe USD/JPY?)


Hi Team,

good news: after a lot of background work the Table of Content is ready for the thread! Check out the very first post.

With Mike and Rookie we have read the whole thread and re-read the most important parts. I get the bronze medal with reading 600 posts, Mike becomes silver with 900 posts and the gold goes on ROOKIE with reading 1 200 posts (2/3 of the whole thread!!!). Thanks guys for the reading, sorting, re-reading and checking.

Very important to clear: the thread had very many good posts, both Rookie and Mike sent me a great number of good posts from which I sorted out actually quite a lot. For this reason I want to make clear that the table of content is not there for all valuable posts as that would have very many links and everyone would lose the overview. I strictly chose posts about the COT report. That is what new readers have to see. This means that many good posts from Peter on intermarket analysis, or from Philip about technicals, Mikes and Rookie Fundamental writeups are not included because they have not much to do with COT analysis. I thought it is important to clear.

BTW I have wrote out many posts for my own use, if someone is interested, write me in private.

I have to say we came quite a long way. Some early questions from us to Peter makes me laugh, even if we are only a couple of month older now. Maybe in some months we will be laughing on our conversations which take place now :slight_smile:

Have a nice afternoon/evening/morning depending on where you live,

FE

Guys, Willspread setting - change correlation to false.

Oanda offer a free mt4 with bonds etc.

Forex Ltd offer a free MT4 with USDX

Both these companies will not make any nuisance calls.

The secondary market - you have to enter exactly as it is described on the platform, so on Forex.ltd, they describe gold as “GOLD”, on oanda XAUUSD.

If It appears as just one long line, then flick to a different time frame and back, if the space is blank then re-check the spelling of the support market - has to be exact.

The zero line will set itself in relation to what’s above or below, the correlation true to false will fix that.

The USDX as a support market gives good signals, the USB10YR (as described by Oanda) gives good, no maybe excellent readings on S&P,

I have found USD/JPY also excellent on stocks (not surprising).

On Oanda it’s possible to use XAUGBP as supporting market on a GBP based cross.

One other thing, try an oscillator with one of the crosses and willspread running.

Now post FOMC, USD took a good jump, though I exited GBP/USD before all the shenanigans, I’ll wait now until tomorrow morning before going back.

Interestingly the S&P took a nose dive, that is a normal reaction because money being pumped into the economy is good for business, take it away and the knee jerk is to sulk.

I was interested to see how Willspread would and will cope under stress.

If the secondary market is USDJPY then it’s gone haywire due to the surge there - the important supporting markets USB10YR and XAUUSD are now showing a buy - the indicator refused to go below zero, even when price fell below the 50sma, now that price has gone above the ma … who is brave enough :slight_smile:

Oanda price now 1975.00 … we will watch closely

Update: Oil and Copper now in agreement with the S&P, they too have reacted negatively, to the effect - now business will need us less, so price is dropping.

USDX chart hr1 at present.

EDit: Willspread on a sell signal now on S&P/ LOL it’s a buy! (or stay out during fomc)

Can you help me with one thing, I am trying to understand why the USD surged after the FOMC but the DOW and S&P plummeted…I would appreciate some insight on this thanks for reading

Long story short, when the Fed announced QE, many see that as money printing, reduces or dilutes the value of a currency.

Then more recently the Fed announced they were cutting back on QE, so that encouraged more USD buying on the basis of less printing.

Finally, as anticipated, they announce it’s ending, then another USD boost. Sure it was expected, but now the uncertainty is gone, no more will they, won’t they, it’s finished - that’s seen as USD positive (whether that will last or not is yet to be decided).

As far as Stocks are concerned, the idea of an increase of money supply, whether printed or not, is seen as good for business, the more money the more spending, thus more buying - so up goes the value of company shares and their the stock indicies.

Reducing that supply is perceived as negative in the short term for business - thus the drop in the index.

The reality is that these are knee jerk reactions, the important guys in the stock market are the investors, it’s unlikely that they will waken up tomorrow morning and decide to off load their investments in stocks as a result of the FOMC announcement.

Peterma: I’m brave enough :slight_smile: I stayed in the long S&P trade I opened.

blkwllst: Well logic said it shouldn’t happen right? Well FOMC was running a program where it is buying and putting money in the US economy for years. As a result of this FED buying, stocks went up [B]regardless[/B] of its company’s performance.

The latest FED meeting so them announcing the end to that buying program. As a result, now companies need to perform if they want to attract buying stocks. This prompts fear in people buying in S&P to pullout just to see how companies will do.

In short, this fall in S&P is normal, the longer term view (for now) remains bullish. [B]Having said that if you are trading SPX and is losing get out of the trade now.[/B] It is not the best trade available. I would recommend following us on the weekends, that’s when we provide in depth views of a wide variety of markets including S&P.