I am so bored - or is it frustrated!
I do not remember a time ever before when all the markets that I look at are so indecisive, even stagnant.
My mainstays this year, Crude Oil and SP500, have been “Trumped” into a state of loose neutrality, whilst EUR and GBP are deeply anaesthetized by Brexit.
But I have to admire the shrewdness of the US President in gaining two victories in one swipe and getting paid for it in the process.
Sending warships and bombers into strike range of Iran and uplifting the possibility of a war was sure to result in an unwanted upsurge in oil prices……… But that was neatly offset by a somewhat simultaneous weekend tweet threatening real increases in tariffs on Chinese goods just ahead of this week’s US/China trade discussions. The resultant threat of a further slowdown in global trade was enough to paralyse oil prices as well as numbing the stock markets.
If the tariffs threat results in a better agreement then the US wins, if not, then the US pulls in the extra revenues from the increased tariffs.
But, who, in the longer term actually suffers from these tariffs is another issue. Is it the Chinese exporters who have to lower their prices, or the US customer who has to pay more for the same goods, or is it businesses on both sides that have to endure painful contracting business levels and /or lose business to other companies in other nations.
Either way, for the first time for as long as I can remember, I am totally devoid of any trading ideas to match my continuing enthusiasm to be “out there”. Frustrating, but at least the garden is getting a lot of extra attention this year!
Just some thoughts on a sunny afternoon.