Are you serious, VictorS? I just got an e-mail about your post above - thank you for your very kind and encouraging words!
I am not by any means any kind of veteran in oil trading but I am still finding it both fascinating and profitable. I confess that I have just started posting this weekend elsewhere, but if you are really interested in sharing some thoughts about Crude OIl then I will put my thoughts and discoveries here.
If you have been following my posts here then you will have seen that I am following two methods here. In addition to my own charts I am also following the direction of the "High-5" method promoted on this site by Turbonero.
To bring you up to date with the High 5 situation, it just closed its 5th consecutive win on 28.6. with a profit of 402 pips and is now long from 44.42 (WTI) - currently an open profit as at close 30.6. of 179 pips (stop currently at 42.605 being low from 26.6.)
I just posted elsewhere my views on where we stand right now after last week's strong rally ahead of the "extended" weekend to include US Independence Day next Tuesday. and I'll copy it here at the end.
If you really wish, and find it useful, then I will of course naturally continue posting my stuff here - I prepare it anyway so its no problem - just don't hold me to any views!
As I state below this Daily chart is not a trading chart - I just compile there all the indicators that seem to be widely used and it does seem to give a visual on where we are at any time. My own charts are bullish from 4H downswards but this Daily is pointing more to just a retracement at the moment. Maybe up to 49 dollars or so before we could say that we are starting a serious, longer term bull trend as such. I dont feel the longer term underlying fundamentals changed at all last week so I am very wary of the upside potential here unless next thursday's EIA figures point to a possible more significant shrinking in US production output. I don't see that happening if drilling is still profitable, afterall, we are still talking of US reaching record production levels and in line with Mr Trump's ambitions to increase all hydrocarbon output, be it gas, coal or oil....
But the US upstream industry comprises many private companies and their breakeven price varies a lot. They will drill if there is a profit and shutdown when the price is too low.
So here's where I am right now:
Last week was a firm, consistent upward move which, in my opinion, was generated by two things:
1) The week produced first signs that prices approaching USD 42 per barrel are starting to edge below the breakeven level for many conventional and even some US shale oil producers. The EIA figures on Wednesday revealed a slight drop in US weekly production and the Baker Hughes US rig count on Friday evening showed the first drop in 23 weeks - albeit only by 2 rigs.
2) The market was apparently already heavily short and the above -mentioned data prompted short-covering/profit-taking ahead of an exceptionally long weekend with the US Independence Day holiday on Tues 4th July (preceded by Canada Day on Mon 3rd).
But the question is will the upside be further extended beyond Tuesday?
The core fundamental issue is still the global excess in crude oil stocks and that has not changed. The OPEC production cuts are still being largely neutralised by increased production elsewhere in, for example, the US, Libya and Nigeria. Also, on the demand side, projections are being lowered across the globe by many analysts.
So, I think last week's upmove was more a bounce off the bottom than a start of a bull move. Further price increases will induce further production increases which, unless OPEC decides to deepen the level of production cuts, will again cap prices as producers start to lock in levels.
The Daily chart below is NOT a trading chart. It is just a collection of major indicators that are variously used by traders which helps to put a broader picture on where we are - from the bottom upwards as follows:
a) RSI is neutral
b) Momentum has just turned bullish
c) We are still under the 50% Fib retracement of the last move (at around 47.00)
d) We are still under the Ichimoku cloud
e) We are still under the 200SMA
I would expect to see Monday as a quiet trading day with a range held by roughly 45.75 - 47.00.
The rest of the week will probably depend on the EIA release on Thursday, after the holiday, as this was catalytic in the rebound last week and US production is perhaps the most sensitive issue around at the moment.