For many of us, the phrase “Made in China” has been extremely familiar for many, many years. But the connotations associated with it have changed considerably in that time from cheap, plastic throwaways, via cheap copies of consumer goods, to high technology and quality goods.
Now we see the “Made in China” label, for the first time in human history, landing on the dark side of moon. That is one amazing achievement!
But, closer to home, China was also in the news yesterday, bringing down oil prices with news of some of the worst manufacturing data for many years, with the Chinese PMI falling below 50% .
But on the same day we saw oil prices rising on the announcement from China that vice-ministerial level meetings with the US on the trade agreements will take place next week on 7-8 January. The fallout from the trade wars between the two largest economies on the globe are starting to show in company results such as Apple, falling stock values and reductions in agricultural sales.
If that was not enough input already, we have also seen OPEC announcing significant cuts in production from Saudi Arabia and others even before the new OPEC+ agreement officially started.
But we didn’t stop there either. Towards the end of the day, the API released its stock data which showed contradictory pressures, reporting a crude oil draw that exceeded expectations but a big build in gasoline stocks
Against a background of a US government shutdown sinking into a deadlock situation and further doubt about a settlement of the Brexit deal, it was not surprising to see such a topsy-turvy day in oil markets as we witnessed yesterday.
The market prices have, at least temporarily, found a base level at which noises are starting to emerge of US shale oil difficulties in making profits and therefore also in securing additional debt and investment funds to finance new developments - which casts a shadow over the optimistic forecasts for significant increased US production during 2019.
All this is not good for trading. It becomes harder to create a view, define targets, and generates so much uncertainty, as positions swing from gain to loss and back again, that as soon as 50 pips appears as profit, one is already wondering should I “take the money and run”. Then one’s focus turns from the chart structure to just eyeballing the current price as it zooms this way and that.
Yesterday, I took that one position with a small profit but closed it due to the overall uncertainty and not being present to monitor it. Later I took another long and closed that for 23 pips and then a short with a loss of -17 pips. I don’t like that kind of trading.
Towards the close, it seemed that the market was shrugging off any negative news and maybe focusing more on the potential good news from the upcoming US-China talks so I went long again and that position is still open. Currently it is around 50+ pips and, once again, that horrible uncertainty rises in one’s throat -should I take it now or wait? Do I take a smug profit here or end up choking back tears after it rallies immediately after I close it - or do I take a longer view and go for the “big pips” and end up kicking myself after it once again just collapses!
Hah! but that is the nature of trading!
I am thinking about raising my stop close to B/E, just below the last week high and a target at 48.00. A stop at 50 pips is a bit tight for my liking. but at least then I won’t end up with a loss as well as wishing I had taken the money!!!