Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Crude supply risks are back in focus as WTI trades within a 3-year down trending channel, with attention turning to economic growth and trade momentum amid OPEC’s planned supply cut unwinds. What are the key levels to watch this week?
By :Razan Hilal, CMT, Market Analyst
Key Events to Watch
- Chinese CPI – Wednesday: Will deflationary pressures deepen?
- FOMC Minutes & USD Weakness: Possible policy clues and implications for oil demand
- U.S. Crude Inventories: Retesting 3-month highs, adding pressure to prices
As WTI trades back inside the 3-year downtrend channel established since the 2022 highs, the outlook has shifted to a neutral-to-bearish tone, with markets awaiting a decisive breakout.
Several macro and supply-side factors are reinforcing this stance, including OPEC’s planned unwind of voluntary supply cuts totaling more than 400,000 barrels per day starting in August, rising U.S. crude inventories nearing 3-month highs, and ongoing trade uncertainty tied to near-term tariff decisions.
Crude Oil Inventories:
Source: Forex Factory
Despite current downside pressure, several bullish factors are helping to hold prices and are worth monitoring:
- Continued U.S. dollar weakness could lend support to commodity prices.
- OPEC’s confidence in phasing out cuts suggests a more optimistic supply-demand outlook.
- Expectations for interest rate cuts and potential trade agreements may boost demand sentiment.
So what are the key levels I’m watching?
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
As oil holds back within the 3-year down trending channel, a bearish-to-neutral stance persists in line with OPEC’s supply strategies. The latest oil drop found support above the 64-mark, aligning with the neckline of a previously formed inverted head and shoulders pattern that corresponded with the breakout above 70 during Middle East escalations. Now that we are back at that support and technical checkpoint, the scenarios are as follows:
Bearish Scenario: Should oil close below the 63.40 level, downside risks may accelerate toward the midzone of the established 3-year channel, aligning with the 60, 58, and 56 levels, respectively, before confirming projections for new 2025 lows.
Bullish Scenario: On the upside, if crude holds above the 64–66 support zone, it may recover toward the 69 and 72 resistance levels, where it is likely to challenge a fresh breakout attempt. Such a move could reshape the broader WTI outlook, either sustaining or overcoming the dominance of the long-standing down trending channel.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.