Once again the market has delivered and account value has crept up again and at a faster rate as our position size is now bigger.
We wait for more good things to come along.
EXPERT
The market has delivered again and I am going off to sleep soon.I am sure there will be more goodies when I wake in the morning.
One thing to note, some might have already…this is a $100,000 demo account so we started off with $100,000 in funds. Our present position adds up to $12 million.
How’s that for leverage ?.. Could you ever do that with Spot only ?
EXPERT
Good Morning !!..and I do mean GOOD…
The market delivered AGAIN…it ALWAYS does, it never fails !!!
Enough said, screenshots tells the whole story better than my babbling.
EXPERT
Action taken. Screenshots to follow soon.
8,000,000 1.25 PUT liquidated. We will check profitability when I have the screenshot embedded here.
4,000,000 1.25 PUT bought 83 pips sold 103 pips 20 pips profit times 4,000,000 = $8000
4,000,000 1.25 PUT bought 83 pips sold 92 pips 9 pips profit times 4.000.000 = $3,600
We wait YET again for the market to deliver another round of goodies !!
EXPERT
This time around the market has decided that we need to wait.
It has not given to us as yet. Remember, the market NEVER fails to deliver, it is always if we are willing to wait long enough.
We wait…
EXPERT
We have increased the size of the hedge. This is to give us an edge on the hedge.
Remember, the market NEVER fails to deliver.
Sold EUR/USD 1,000,000
Bought 1,000,000 1.2900 CALL
We wait for it now.
EXPERT
The market will ALWAYS deliver, it NEVER fails to do that. That is a truism. If one has observed over a significant time there are certain laws acting within the market and these laws create a predictability but this predictability is NOT price action.
We would all like to be able to predict price movements but that is governed by the laws of chaos and stochasticity so to try and predict price movement is to gamble.
This being the weekend and the market is closed, it gives us a chance to demonstrate the effects of one of the laws in the market that makes it certain that the market will deliver always.
There are NO players in the market over the weekend, no traders on bids or offers so the human factor bearing on the market is not present.
The market now acts entirely on its own, the forces on the market is now free of human interference and the perfect way to observe it and see what the market does WITHOUT traders on the floor !!
Just before the market closed for the week end, I managed to get up from sleep to initiate this position so that we could observe this natural phenomenon.
We sold 6,000,000 1.2500 PUT
We do this to bring us back to where we want to be so that in totality, our combined position can show us something interesting.
As with every position we mount, the bid/ask spread will work against us and it takes a huge chunk out of our account value but we know the market will deliver and compensate us for that…so no worries.
The account value is at $82,240. Take a careful note of this…this is important.
The positions don’t change over the weekend. It remains static. There are no players in the market over the weekend so nothing moves and nothing is going on…correct ?
WRONG !!!
The market forces that act on the market do not STOP…they are there ALWAYS. It is a natural law. Gravity is a natural law, it NEVER takes a holiday or a day off.
Over the weekend and before the market opens again, I will take a few snapshots of the account and you will see the amazing manner in which the market will deliver, constantly and without fail.
THIS COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT POST I HAVE MADE HERE.
Remember, the markets are CLOSED…no one is trading. The only forces if any, acting on the market would be the natural market forces following a natural law which will act on the market ALL the time.
We cannot see the effects normally because of the noise and the randomness that the traders bring into the market…but we can see it as it brings up it’s head in the stillness of the market over the weekend.
EXPERT
Any trader worth his salt will know these 3 names.
Charles Henry Dow
Ralph Nelson Elliot
William Derbert Gann
Why?
They all recognised that there is an unseen force acting on the markets and they each worked out a way to handle and use it to their advantage.
Behind every theory, there must be an underlying principle at work. The only reason a theory remains a theory is because the underlying principle or law has not been identified or defined.
W D Gann was significant in a situation where he was holding a BIG position…was Corn or Cotton…can’t remember which…but it was 15 minutes to the close and his partner was nervous and asked…maybe begged… to close the position so that they could at least recover some capital and take the loss…it was 15 mins to the close and options expiry.
W D Gann said…clearly and slowly… NO. If I did, it would mean that I throw away my whole life’s work !!
Just minutes before the close…the market made a huge move !!!..they ended up with a SIZABLE profit…but what is more pertinent here…W D Gann was working on a certainty…what was it that gave him that certainty ?
What was this FORCE so great that 3 of our greatest known traders saw or felt and used ??
It is a universal law.
It will be there always…there long before we came…there long after we are gone…
The market WILL ALWAYS DELIVER…it will NEVER FAIL us.
EXPERT
I wonder how many noticed the difference in the account value that WENT UP…even when the market was still over the weekend… it was closed and YET we made $600.00
How did this come about ?
There is a constant FORCE that acts over the market all throughout…it is called TIME.
W D Gann saw this…he said…“Time is the most important factor, when analyzing and forecasting market movements.”
Actually TIME acts over the market even when price is NOT moving.
The market delivered the $600 to us over the weekend because of TIME.
And because of TIME…the market will ALWAYS deliver…we just need to know how to be on the receiving end !!
EXPERT
Good Morning. Screenshot at the start of a new trading week. Market closed over the weekend BUT the market delivered us $83,035 - $82,240 = $795 profit without any market move.
TIME.
The market ALWAYS delivers, just know how to receive.
EXPERT
I had an interesting question put forward to me by someone seeking to be coached so I will post it here and the answer too.
This question I think is a natural one to everyone who comes across this…it is this…
Can you guarantee that I will end up making money ?
I know what the answer should be so I checked around the many sites and true enough, they all say much the same thing…sing the same song, so to speak.
One of them went as such…
Can you guarantee that I will make money?
There is no guarantee, and if any forex software/product/guru
guarantees that, I suggest that you RUN as far away as possible
from them. In this professional market, it takes discipline,
time, and effort. It’s like supplying you with a car, you could
go out and crash it straightaway or take our lessons, learn what
to do, and drive safely without crashing and burning. It’s your
responsibility to drive your car.
My answer to the same question…
YES
One proviso, you MUST be willing to allow time to do its work on the market to allow it to deliver the profits to you.
If you are willing to do just that…YES, you will make money…guaranteed…or I will foot your loss !!
EXPERT
hi expert, i,m just starting to look at options and am really impressed by them. just read through this whole thread and will do so a couple of more times.
i’ve got a couple of quick questions. firstly is the account balance going up because you are writing {selling} your own options and and time decay locks in your profits. secondly if so, what happens if the market moves massively overnight against your position - which i’ve seen it do a few times lately. do you always have your positions hedged in some way?
sorry if the terminology is all wrong, but i am new to all this.
thanks doobs:)
DOOBS,
It is ok if you use wrong terminology as you get to learn along the way. Expertise is moulded through time.
Bottom line here is that it is a hedged position so the drastic effect of a violent swing one way or the other does not bring disaster. It is mostly NOT a perfectly hedged position but leakage one way or the other is small normally and can be handled without too much drama.
Remember also, the big moves are a double edged sword. In bringing disaster to some, it ALSO brings windfall to others. We DO WANT the big moves so that we have the opportunity to lock a potential which we could reap with TIME.
I hope it makes at least some sense to you.
EXPERT
PS. Answer to first question is YES.
The account value has stayed pretty much where it is, so the market is dictating that we just wait for an opportunity to arise before we can move in to do something.
We always get our cue from the market and allow it to tell us what to do. We don’t try and outguess it.
EXPERT
thanks for that expert:)
as i said, i’ve only just discovered options and they seem a much better way of managing your trades rather than using stop losses on spot positions.
cheers
doobs
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I’m still curious about how this trade is doing? Any updates?
Uh same here, options isn’t something that’s thrown around much around here, did expert end up doing his teaching thing? Anyone from it able to comment about it?
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Hi expert trader, how do I sail from zero to errmm… not hero but good at trading Vanilla options ?
Where do I start learning and trading Vanilla options ?