Actually - while I been sitting with my Gold problem I would like to know if anybody (rhodytrader???) has any input on this phenomenon:
If there is one thing in Forex that I am (was) sure of is the fact that the USD/ZAR and Gold on a weekly chart for the past year has always been in ABSOLUTE PERFECT SYNCH. You could take a date and a time on the Gold chart and find the same date and time on the USD/ZAR chart and the movement would match EXACTLY - ALWAYS.
Now that have been sitting with this little Gold problem of mine I have noticed something: the USD/ZAR seems to have gone totally out of kilter with the price of Gold (and remember that is what our currencies’ value is based on).
In other words - two days ago - the USD/ZAR was around 7.0900 or around there and the price of Gold was around $693.00 an ounce.
NOW - the USD/ZAR is around 7.0000 and the price of Gold is at around $686.00 an ounce.
In other words - how is it possible that in the last two days - the price of Gold has dropped considerably but the ZAR is continues to strengthe?
What worries me is that I seem to remember a very long, long time ago - the USD/ZAR went to something like $12.7500 or around there and the same sort of scenario was apparent and at the time there was talk of something or someone manipulating our currency (whether this was true or not I’ll probably never know) but does this kind of thing happen? Can this kind of thing happen - i.e. manipulation of the Gold price or a currency?
I mean to say - another thing - eveyone keeps saying that the USD is on its knees - and this normally would mean a high Gold price - but I’m not seeing this - totally the opposite.
Also - from all the reading that I have been doing - the general consensus also seems to be that Gold and Silver normally run in tandem with each other i.e. Silver goes up, Gold goes up but at this time - they are doing the opposite.
Anybody have ANY ideas on this and when my beloved ZAR is going to get back in line with the price of Gold?
Regards,
Dale.
What occurred the last time the instruments you mentioned exhibited divergence? Is this where opportunity lies?
Divergance - that’s the word I was looking for!!!
You’re asking the wrong person mate - I’m sitting with about $6 500.00 trapped in hedged positions (again) so - like I said - I’m the last person to ask - UNLESS - you could see how this could work in my favour.
It just does not make sense to me - Gold going to $700.00 USD was such a ‘sure’ thing. I’m telling you - I’m moving my DSTV out of my office and throwing out the radios. If I had checked the graphs and not listened to these monkeys on Bloomberg - I be drinking Rum by this time of night - not bighting my fingernails!!!
Anyway - I digress (again). I mean - this is crazy - as we speak Gold is going down further and the ZAR is getting stronger by the minute against the USD. Mmmm…
Let me know if you have any ideas.
Regards,
Dale.
BTW - Is anybody else here having EXTREME trouble posting today - everything seems to have slowed down to a snails pace and I have to post and refresh and post and refresh a few times before my post is accepted?
Just an update.
Obviosuly this does help my situation BUT at least I have managed to find out that under normal market conditions I would have been fine.
Somebody, somewhere, has got a hard on for Gold and / or the USD/ZAR.
Why do I say this? Many reasons but to name just a few:
In order to find out more about what’s going on I signed up on my brokers Futures Forum at http://www.global-view.com. It is a live chat room (with some strange sounding people on it but they seem to have the ‘inside track’ on certain things - very interesting links to various articles regarding the current situation of Gold. Even these guys have not seen this action before and I am assuming that these are ‘professional’ traders based on the some of the conversations that I have observed.
I have just watch Gold spike from 684.49 to 687.05 and back down in a couple of minutes.
The ZAR has spiked three times (and by the way I am not talking about those spikes that look like errors - these are valid trades i.e. candles) in the past two hours between 6.9368 and 7.0067. Three times? In the space of two hours? I don’t think so. Do you have any idea how many pips that it???
Also - the divergance that I mentioned before (thanks for the word) seems to be correcting itself all of a sudden as well i.e. the ZAR value:Gold seems to be getting back in kilter with each again. How about that?
For what it’s worth I have gathered from all my reading and research in the past 48 hours that Gold is being manipulated and stops are being hunted but BIG TIME and all of this to get ready to go down and then to some or the other record high next month.
I am not one to believe in conspiracy theories but from all the people that I have corresponded with there is not logical or technical explanation for any of this to be happening. Talk about accelerated learning the hard way.
Anyway - just thought I’d let anybody who may be interested in this type of thing know what’s going on.
Regards,
Dale.
PS: rhodytrader - I would be keen to read your take on this (I have had a good look around your website so I now know where you are coming from).
And just by the way - further to the thread that I started but was ignored - yesterday I made $50.00 in two hours out of 4 $50.00 lots (i.e. $200.00) by opening a proper hedge in the middle of the range of the USD/MXN - caught it both sides - runs like clockwork. A bit slow - but I can tell you that once I’m out of this Gold nonsense that’s where I’m headed.
Regards,
Dale.