Daily Analysis Thread

ForexPros · October 8, 2008, 3:08am

[B]Today�s US Dollar Trading[/B]

� USD remains range-bound
� Traders see two-way action and stops as the main event today
� Fundamentals being ignored in favor of rhetoric

[B]Overnight Preview[/B]

� Look for the USD to back and fill ahead of US news tomorrow
� Expect current ranges to hold
[B]
Looking Ahead to Wednesday[/B]
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 7:45am USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
� 10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m
� 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories

[B]Summary[/B]
The USD is mixed to end New York after a solid two-way session driven mostly by active buying and selling. Although stops were triggered for part of today�s volatility in most pairs, the majors remained inside established ranges for most of the day. Today�s fundamental news was benign and not market-moving; traders remained focused on how global leaders will attempt to restore confidence to the financial system. Finance leaders today meeting in Luxemburg made a token gesture to guarantee bank deposits up to 50K EURO in the Eurozone but most traders saw that as only a minor step. Most are looking toward a US Fed rate cut sooner rather than later with some calling for a rate cut this week. The Fed increased the lending window using the TAF program to include more potential securities or collateral but the markets appear heavily focused on a rate cut by the Fed as well as other Central Banks. While waiting for that to happen the major pairs remained whippy inside established ranges and remained two-way all day. GBP rose to a high print at 1.7660 in early trade before backing off to the 1.7500 area and slightly below; traders note stops both ways during the day. EURO rallied in sympathy with Cable for a high print at 1.3744 before falling back as well; traders note that the lows of 1.3479 are a technical low suggesting that the larger range today off the lows may be a near-term bottom. In my view, the USD is severely over-bought near-term and a long-liquidation break is likely soon. I like buying the EURO and the GBP on dips and the markets should give us at least one try this week. USD/JPY whipsawed all day first making highs overnight at 103.30 before dropping back to trade under the 101.70 area; the rate rallied hard on news that the RBA had cut rates but sellers were active at the highs. In the USD/JPY the threat of a coordinated rate cut scenario by the three largest CB�s is keeping the Yen well-bid; traders expect more losses by the USD/JPY near-term. In my view, the USD is setting up for a break lower�keep vigilant and be ready to move on further USD strength.

[B]GBP/USD Daily[/B]

Resistance 3: 1.8180
Resistance 2: 1.8050
Resistance 1: 1.7880
Latest New York: 1.7493
Support 1: 1.7310/20
Support 2: 1.7280

[B]Comments[/B]

Rate is two-way on the way down to trade under support around the 1.7300 area; volumes better and traders note large names on the bid possibly covering shorts. Rate is likely heavily over-sold. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical�s and spillover from EURO. Aggressive traders can buy this dip around the 1.7380 area; look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term. Two-way action likely near-term; heavy focus on bailout plan. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Major support has held for two weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. OK to buy any time in my view. Let price orders work near-term.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m
5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
10:30am GBP CB Leading Index m/m

[B]EURO/USD Daily [/B]

Resistance 3: 1.3900/10
Resistance 2: 1.3880
Resistance 1: 1.3800/10
Latest New York: 1.3623
Support 1: 1.3480
Support 2: 1.3440

Rate has inside range day but rallies on news of potential rate cut; OK to look at the buy side on weakness to the bottom of the range. Pullback to the 1.3400 handle on lighter volume. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil weaker helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market but those likely remain out of range today. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. A bottom is due soon but the question is where.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
2:45am EUR French Government Budget Balance
2:45am EUR French Trade Balance
6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m

Support 3: 1.3400

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Mennon · October 8, 2008, 7:33am

Such good theme also has no continuation ((

ForexPros · October 15, 2008, 3:52am

[B]Today�s US Dollar Trading[/B]

� USD has a technical day, holds S/R
� Volumes continue to remain off
� Traders remain unsure how to play the bailout

[B]Overnight Preview[/B]
� Look for continued two-way trade
� Economic news tomorrow may encourage some USD selling

[B]Looking Ahead to Wednesday
[/B]All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
� 8:30am USD PPI m/m
� 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
� 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
� 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
� 10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m
� 1:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
� 2:00pm USD Beige Book

[B]Summary[/B]
The USD had a uneventful day of mostly technical trade with only the USD/JPY stretching outside established overnight ranges to the downside and USD/CAD suffering a rally to the upside. Most pairs made early highs or lows on the news of additional government-sponsored bailout options provided by the US and other G-7 nations as the prop of the financial system continues to remain center-stage. With additional economic news due tomorrow expected to be USD bearish, it is likely that traders will see a bit of long-liquidation in the USD but the fact is most sentiment remains supportive of the USD near-term. Traders are expecting more two-way action similar to today�s trade at least through the end of the week. Aggressive traders will likely have the more short-term opportunity as the majors are likely to cover the same ground twice the next few days. Although initial reaction to the G-7 support was USD bearish the majors have not seen an increase in volumes and order-flow has been patchy some desks report. In my view, the majors will continue grinding sideways in a broader range the next few days as details begin to emerge that might break the Greenback one way or the other. GBP fell back from an early high at 1.7634 to trade back under the 1.7500 handle into the close. Traders note a lack of fresh buying after a round of short-covering lifted the rate in early trade. Cross-spreaders for Yen appear active again and a dip into the 1.7300 handle might be a buying opportunity near-term. EURO dipped a bit in sympathy as traders saw solid offers appear on the move to the 1.3700 handle; most desks are looking for a pullback to the 1.3500 area soon although good bids were seen around the 1.3620/30 area and above today. USD/JPY held near the 103.00 handle for most of the morning then began to slide off as equities retreated from their early gains. Most desks report that the volumes were light on the rally suggesting a �dead cat bounce� may be developing in the rate. Low prints in late New York at 101.49 no doubt left the late longs stinging. USD/CHF failed to extend gains past the recent highs around the 1.1400 area; high prints at 1.1388 were turned back to close around the 1.1320 area. USD/CAD bounced higher after the 8-figure slide from Friday�s highs to trade the 1.1600 handle into the close; again traders have no reason to support such a move other than continued panic buying of USD by someone. Look for the rate to remain volatile. In my view, the whippy nature of the majors underscores the current lack of confidence traders continue to operate under. With a rally in equities fizzling into the close it underscores the lack of real progress made despite the promises of help from the powers that be. Look for the USD to remain two-way again overnight with a slightly higher bias into tomorrow�s news.

[B]GBP/USD Daily
[/B]
Resistance 3: 1.7720
Resistance 2: 1.7680
Resistance 1: 1.7630/40
Latest New York: 1.7438
Support 1: 1.7440
Support 2: 1.7380
Support 3: 1.7300
Comments
Rate falls back after recovery to trade flat; likely to pullback to support around the 1.7380 area for a buy point. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate but two-way action adding to volatility. New Lows around the 1.6800 area likely to draw additional bids and will likely hold on further weakness, traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle will likely help the longs. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Volumes lighter after the open. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical�s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index y/y
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate

[B]EURO/USD Daily[/B]

Resistance 3: 1.3880
Resistance 2: 1.3820
Resistance 1: 1.3780
Latest New York: 1.3653
Support 1: 1.3580
Support 2: 1.3520
Support 3: 1.3480
Comments
Cross-spreading is mitigating and EURO/JPY is recovering driving support for EURO; bailout plan is likely to fuel recovery. Dip from highs holds technical support and should attract a rotation higher. Two-year low on a Friday likely a bottom near-term. Rate at a buy point, OK to buy the next dip. Aggressive traders can add to open longs on a close over the 1.3700 area. Pullback under the 1.3400 handle this week on lighter volume would be a great buy in my view. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil two-way spills over into pricing; weaker oil helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m
5:00am EUR CPI y/y
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · October 16, 2008, 3:27am

[B]Today�s US Dollar Trading[/B]

� Two-way trade after the open
� US data negative but traders still watching credit
� Technical trading finds some stops
[B]
Overnight Preview[/B]

� Look for some light follow-on buying of USD, then a fade
� Should get quiet ahead of US data
[B]
Looking Ahead to Thursday[/B]
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 8:30am USD CPI m/m
� 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
� 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
� 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate
� 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m
� 10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

[B]Summary[/B]
The USD is ending the day mixed today after a solid two-way overnight session last night; holding on to gains against the GBP and EURO and making new highs around the London fix. Traders note that focus remains on the weakness in the financial markets and a 500-plus point drop in the DJIA today didn�t help sentiment despite weak economic data this morning. US data was USD-negative this morning and more is due tomorrow leaving the fundamental picture for the Greenback looking dismal; so why are traders still buying USD today? Some desks suggest that the tide is beginning to turn on that thinking and note that despite the credit-crisis and the liquidity crunch, the major pairs are all being sold for JPY for the most part. If the situation in the US is similar to the situation in Japan during the 1990�s then a sharp devaluation of the currency would be expected. It is hard to argue for a stronger USD long-term if the Fed will be forced to drop rates back down to the 1.0% level or lower in order to attempt a recovery from a recession/depression;; which the US is no doubt on the verge of. Still, USD remains bid against most pairs today with the exception of JPY. GBP high prints at 1.7604 went unchallenged today in New York and at the London fix dropped to new lows; traders note stops triggered along with active selling for a low print in late NY at 1.7298. GBP is very near a technical buy-point in my view after this morning�s failure to hold gains above the 1.7550 area; look for bids around the 1.7250 area overnight to support. EURO followed GBP lower for a low print at 1.3495 and is hovering off the 1.3500 handle in light trade. Volatility is likely a sign of near-term bottoming and I would look for a buy point in EURO on further weakness to the 1.3420/30 area if we get it overnight. USD/JPY fell victim to the weakness on Wall Street today holding its own for most of the day near the opening ranges but unable to show any strength at all in NY; low prints came as the DJIA slide off with current low prints at 100.42 making for a try on weekly lows but finding a bit of support; look for more downside in Asia overnight. USD/CAD continues to baffle traders as a rally through the 1.1850 area topped out at 1.1889; a full three big figures off the lows seen in Asia overnight. Panic trading of the pair likely was augmented by falling oil prices as Crude dropped three bucks to trade at another weekly low. Traders remind that the USD has a significant economic problem to reflect and current pricing is looking very toppy; but until the sentiment turns on the credit crisis the USD will likely suffer more two-way action with lots of volatility. Look for the USD to remain range bound after a try for slightly better highs overnight as tomorrows data is likely to be unfriendly.

[B]GBP/USD Daily [/B]

Resistance 3: 1.7720
Resistance 2: 1.7680
Resistance 1: 1.7630/40
Latest New York: 1.7327
Support 1: 1.7300
Support 2: 1.7250/60
Support 3: 1.7220
Comments

Rate firms after fall back yesterday but suffers selling after London; pullback to support around the 1.7380 area challenged and stops found under for lows. Rate at buy zone now but wait for further drop into 1.7250 area. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate but two-way action adding to volatility. New Lows last week around the 1.6800 area likely to hold now. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle has likely helped the longs; expect more buying on dips. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Follow-on selling likely from technical�s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
NONE

[B]EURO/USD Daily [/B]

Resistance 3: 1.3880
Resistance 2: 1.3820
Resistance 1: 1.3780
Latest New York: 1.3507
Support 1: 1.3500
Support 2: 1.3480
Support 3: 1.3450
Comments

Cross-spreading is mitigating and EURO/JPY is recovering driving support for EURO; bailout plan is likely to fuel recovery. Dip from highs holds technical support and should attract a rotation higher. Two-year low on a Friday likely a bottom near-term. Rate at a buy point after latest attempt higher; OK to buy the next dip. Pullback under the 1.3500 handle likely to attract bids as further dip was bought aggressively last time. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view but be ready for continued two-way action ahead of a rally. Oil two-way spills over into pricing but rate firm despite lower oil. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Mennon · October 18, 2008, 11:31pm

USD-CAD
Preferred view is for a fall to below 1.1712 while 1.1783 - 1.1854 area resists. A clear break of 1.1925 would be bullish.

ForexPros · October 22, 2008, 3:53am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� GBP drops to 2008 lows; EURO makes new 2008 lows
� Technicians suggest over-sold conditions brewing

Overnight Preview

� Look for majors to hold ranges
� Light economic news

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories
Economic news continues light today for everyone
The USD continued to advance against the majors today as stops under recent lows were triggered in thin trade; traders note two-way trade early overnight gave way to additional risk-aversion trade as desks reported USD buy-side interest into the London fix. After the noon hour traders note that the majors continued to drift lower as sell-orders and stops continued to pressure EURO and GBP into lows. Equities were under pressure after an early rally failed and USD/JPY dropped to new lows as exporters and Japanese lifers were seen on the offer late European trade and early New York. Semi-official names and sovereigns were on the bid for EURO and GBP early traders say but support evaporated as the day went on. EURO dropped to a low print of 1.3077 before profit-taking bids lifted the rate back over the 1.3140 area; again traders report thin conditions. GBP dropped to the 1.6800 handle for a low print at 1.6835 in late New York action and the 2008 lows are now under threat; technicians are targeting the next layer of support in GBP at the 1.6750 area. USD/JPY dropped to the 100.15 area before a late rally in equities lifted the rate back to the 100.80 area. Traders note that both Swissy and Loonie extended their respective ranges higher but sellers were active on the rally and both rates dropped back into the close a bit. Most pairs have completed technical objectives analysts say and are showing signs of oversold conditions suggesting that the USD may be finally due for a correction. In my view, the USD is overdue for a correction and now that the credit crisis may be showing signs of resolution the Greenback may fall back quickly; especially if economic news is unfriendly to end the week. Tomorrow is a light day for news but later in the week Existing home sales will likely show another decline. Regardless of near-term sentiment the USD has horrible fundamentals underlying current action; I am still looking for the USD to fall back to end the year. Tomorrow will likely be a day of technical trade as the calendar is again light; look for the majors to hold existing ranges.

[B]GBP/USD Daily [/B]

Resistance 3: 1.7380
Resistance 2: 1.7320
Resistance 1: 1.7250
Latest New York: 1.6707
Support 1: 1.6700/10
Support 2: 1.6650/60
Support 3: 1.6600
Comments

New low late trade today; pressured lower from stops and general technical selling. Light UK data no help overnight; traders note middle-eastern names on the bid as the rate drops. Today�s action again very two-way; stops under the lows drive trade also. Drop under psychological support at 1.7000 challenged again. Rate at buy zone now but range appears wider. Drop under the 1.7200 handle finds light stops. Monthly lows give way as sentiment won�t rally. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. Aggressive traders can buy under 1.7000 area but expect more whippy action. Follow-on selling likely from technical�s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes

[B]EURO/USD Daily [/B]

Resistance 3: 1.3500/10
Resistance 2: 1.3450
Resistance 1: 1.3380
Latest New York: 1.3060
Support 1: 1.3050
Support 2: 1.3000
Support 3: 1.2950/60
Comments

More lows late New York; stops drive trade into next technical support. Option barriers reported on the dip. Official interest noted traders say around the 1.3250 area on the break with stops driving the dip lower. OK to look to the buy side now; rotation off the lows to hold above 1.3350 suggests a near-term bottom. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil two-way spills over into pricing but rate firm despite lower oil. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names overnight this time.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

sam111 · October 22, 2008, 8:54am

Hello friends i have visited the site forexpros.com it is the acurate site for news and to know about technical and fundamental analysis. Apart of it you get the news of commodities and shares as well.

ForexPros · October 23, 2008, 4:42am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� Traders note volumes and conditions at almost zero
� Stops drive a lot of the majors lower
� USD/JPY into the 97.00 area

Overnight Preview

� Look for consolidation and a quiet night
� USD likely to be sideways ahead of data

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
� 10:00am USD HPI m/m
� 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage

Summary
The USD continued to advance against most majors but lost ground against Yen to end the day mixed and at new highs for the year. Stops were triggered in thin trade traders report suggesting that some bottom-picking has been done recently but the relentless one-way USD advance today made quick work of the USD bears today. Traders report that conditions were horrible and volumes almost non-existent suggesting that a potential bottom is once again forming. With most traders focusing almost exclusively on liquidity, bank lending and the financial crisis, it appears evident that finding a USD bear will be hard work. In my view, the charge higher by the USD is suspect because it can�t last due to the underlying fundamentals being what they are. Lately traders have ignored US economic data preferring to trade on rumor and conjecture; tomorrow is regular unemployment and Friday is Existing home sales; both expected to be negative for the Greenback. On the day, Cable sank like a stone for a low print at 1.6138 after the London fix as more dovish rhetoric from the BOE filtered through the markets. Traders note that order boards are blank after the 500 point move overnight and the 1200 point move the past 48 hours; most are looking for a bounce to at least hang a hat on. EURO likely fell in sympathy although some suggest the EURO led the decline; either way the EURO dropped through the 1.3000 handle for a low print at 1.2737 before a bounce was seen. Traders report model accounts selling the rate under the 1.2900 area. USD/CHF rallied also for a high print at 1.1714 in NY before falling back on profit-taking; mist expect a test for stops again over the 1.1720 area near-term and that may finally be the sell for a potential top. USD/JPY fell in line with equities weakness; the DJIA losing 460 points on the day heading into the close. Low prints in USD/JPY at 97.29; aggressive traders can sell more on the close at the 97.50 area. In my view, the USD rally has got to be nearing the end of this move; fundamentals don�t support it and the financial crisis is showing signs of mitigating as some banks are returning to normal operations. Once USD bulls figure out they are holding expensive USD I think at least a small correction will force a top in the rate. Look for quiet overnight action as volumes are light and a steady open in NY tomorrow ahead of US data.
GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6800
Resistance 2: 1.6730
Resistance 1: 1.6500
Latest New York: 1.6234
Support 1: 1.6130
Support 2: ?
Support 3: ?

Comments

Follow-on selling surprises to the downside; stops cleared and orders thin. Traders note solid bids but offers remain. Rate at new support level but ranges appears wider. Drop under the 1.6500 handle finds light stops. Monthly lows give way as sentiment won�t rally. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. Aggressive traders can buy anytime but expect more whippy action. Follow-on selling likely from technical�s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Model accounts seen selling GBP and EURO overnight.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
Tentative GBP MPC Member Gieve Speaks

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3300
Resistance 2: 1.3120/30
Resistance 1: 1.3060
Latest New York: 1.2832
Support 1: 1.2735
Support 2: 1.2660
Support 3: ?

Comments

More lows overnight; stops drive trade into next technical support. After all is done today the rate is unchanged from US opens. Option barriers reported on the dip but those are cleared. Model accounts seen selling the rate under the 1.2800 area. Official interest noted traders say but rate continued to sell-off. OK to look to the buy side now; rotation off the lows will likely signal a near-term bottom. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil two-way spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names overnight this time.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00am EUR Current Account
5:00am EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate
Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.A

ForexPros · October 29, 2008, 3:28am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� USD falls back for the most part
� Volumes a bit better late
� Traders note a correction is likely

Overnight Preview

� Look for more weakness near-term
� USD likely to correct on good volume as equities rally

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
� 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
� 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories
� 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
� 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate

Summary
The USD is two-way into the New York close as traders continue to fear global recession and potential intervention from our trading partners. Rumors that the BOJ was ready to sell Yen to stop the recent sharp rally against most major pairs helped the USD score gains against the Yen but the potential correction has likely run its course and sellers of the rate will return near-term once the US FOMC releases the latest interest rate policy tomorrow; traders feel that the recent volatility in the majors has likely run its course near term as volumes begin to show signs of improving. Rallies in most of the worlds equity bourses certainly helped the majors but there is concern that the equities markets can�t hold gains as a �sell the rallies� sentiment continues to offer sellers in the indexes. In my view, the USD is likely due for a correction lower and I would look for the majors to rally through the end of the week making this month a consolidation month after the recent strength in the Greenback. For the day the GBP had a high print in New York trade at 1.5831 finding stops and solid buying off the overnight lows seen in early Asia overnight. Traders note that stops were about where expected after the recent sell-off. EURO also rallied for a high print at 1.2628 in late New York trade; although both rates were inside ranges it clearly shows the majors are under upward bias near-term. USD/JPY sold off overnight on follow-through for a low print at 92.47 before a rally brought new buying; high prints at 97.79 into late New York. In my view, it should be apparent that the USD is overbought and due for a correction. Look for the Greenback to weaken through the end of the week. It is likely that the market is voting positively to an FOMC rate cut tomorrow; likely to be followed by more rate cuts from our partners as well. Look for the USD to continue lower by the end of the week.
GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: ?
Resistance 2: ?
Resistance 1: 1.6330
Latest New York: 1.5859
Support 1: 1.5400
Support 2: 1.5250
Support 3: ?

Comments

Volatility decreases a bit as today is another inside range day but trading higher. Traders note stops and unwinding of cross-spreads supporting the rate. Follow-on selling finds bids at prior low. Bounce off the lows yesterday and today leaves a healthy bid wick suggesting some upside coming soon but volatility is still high. Traders note liquidity is still thin. Rate at new support level but ranges appears wider. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere but buyers have been stepping up for 1000 points now; many likely sidelined. Aggressive traders can buy anytime but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
5:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
5:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals
2:00pm GBP MPC Member Blanchflower Speaks

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3050
Resistance 2: 1.3000/10
Resistance 1: 1.2800
Latest New York: 1.2646
Support 1: 1.2330
Support 2: ?
Support 3: ?

Comments

More lows overnight; but buyers show up. Hook reversal showing from the toolbox today suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate soon. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Overnight news shows inflation not as bad as expected also helping to lift the rate a bit. Support possibly from option trades; but those are cleared. Official interest noted traders say but rate continued to sell-off. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers but conditions are not right I think; possibly overnight tonight into Wednesday. Oil pressure likely spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis by: Forex | Forex Trading | Currency Trading | Forex Brokers - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Comments
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · October 30, 2008, 9:24am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� USD ends lower after starting weaker in Asia overnight
� Fed cuts rates as expected but only 50 BP
� Equities firm but two-way lending pressure to the majors.

Overnight Preview

� Look for the USD to trade sideways
� Should be quiet ahead of US data in the morning

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
� 8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q
� 8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q
� 8:30am USD FOMC Member Kroszner Speaks
� 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
� 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage

Summary

The USD ended the day weaker across the board but intraday volatility and whipsaw kept traders on their toes; most traders noting that large order to sell USD were moving through the markets and thin conditions exaggerated the moves. Most desks report that stops and aggressive long-liquidation hit most pairs to drive prices lower across the board; USD/CAD took a major hit dropping over 400 points for a low print at 1.2124 before a bit of short-covering brought the rate back to the 1.2200 handle. Conditions were thin as expected and some traders report that firmer oil prices help support the Loonie and EURO today. EURO almost traded 1.3000 today with a high print at 1.2993 before dropping back as volatility dropped the rate back under the 1.2800 handle briefly. Traders note that fears of a global slowdown plus intervention to slow down the rise of the Yen helped underpin the rate but all eyes were on the US FOMC rate announcement today. As expected the Fed cut rates but the markets were expecting more than a 50 BP cut today; some desks report that the USD was �disappointed� that the cut wasn�t larger but fed watchers note this leaves room for the Fed to cut more later if needed and helps the recovery in equities. Although the DJIA has had a two-way session and will close with only slight gains; after yesterdays massive move the market likely needs to pause for a day or two and get more information before extending the recovery if that is in the works. In my view, the Majors are beginning to show signs that the bottom is in near-term but the volatile nature and thin conditions in recent trade likely mean we will cover a lot of the same ground twice. I would look for a pullback in EURO and GBP to buy and certainly sell rallies in the USD pairs. For the day, GBP performed the best crossing the 1.6400 handle and closing firm on the day. Traders note that liquidation of Yen cross-trades likely supporting most pairs leaving the USD in a corrective mode to end the week. Look for a quiet overnight session ahead of US GDP data in the morning. Most traders are expecting a �recession-like� number so expect more downside from the USD to end the week.
GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6650
Resistance 2: 1.6580
Resistance 1: 1.6500
Latest New York: 1.6400
Support 1: 1.5400
Support 2: 1.5250
Support 3: ?
Comments

Upside finds stops, volatility decreases a bit as today as market extends range in good two-way trade. Traders note stops and unwinding of cross-spreads supporting the rate. Follow-on selling finds bids at prior low. Bounce off the lows early in the week leaves a healthy bid wick suggesting some upside coming. Traders note liquidity is still thin. Rate at new resistance level but ranges appears wider. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in finally but expect volatility. Aggressive traders can buy anytime on weakness but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling/JPY lifting the rate.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
3:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
8:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3100
Resistance 2: 1.3050
Resistance 1: 1.300/10
Latest New York: 1.2957
Support 1: 1.2330
Support 2: ?
Support 3: ?
Comments

Rate begins to rally as ranges extend a bit to the upside; hook reversal showing from the toolbox suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate on dips. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Overnight equities stronger also helping to lift the rate a bit. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers; conditions are almost right to buy on the net pullback. Oil pressure likely spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:55am EUR German Unemployment Change
6:00am EUR Consumer Confidence

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

martin01 · October 31, 2008, 12:14am

For today i have some news.

0400 GMT reported the following bids, mergers, acquisitions and disposals involving European, U.S. and Asian companies on Friday.
Version Wireless won antitrust endorsement to purchase urban wireless contributor Alltel Corp on the state that it strip assets in 22 states, the U.S. Justice division said. To understand more.

Happy trading

ForexPros · November 4, 2008, 2:46am

Become part of the Forexpros webinar club as they launch their first ever webinar on Monday 10th November at 3pm GMT. Hosted by Dr. Sivaraman from i-know indices, it will focus on current Forex market conditions. For free registration simply click here and find out what everyone’s talking about!

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� Japan closed for minor holiday
� US data shows recession potential growing
� USD holds gains into the close

Overnight Preview

� Look for some follow-on USD buying
� Two-way action likely on election day

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
� All Day USD Presidential Election
� 10:45am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Summary

The USD continued to advance today against the majors with the exception of the Yen; making new highs in New York trade into the end of day after the London fix. Traders were expecting potential for more month-end USD buying although not on the scale seen last week and with weaker energy and equities the USD firmed all day. Finding stops below Friday�s lows the GBP and EURO both slide to session lows amid light volumes as has been the case; low prints in Cable at 1.5779 after breaching the 1.6000 psychological level with more losses due on follow through. Low prints in EURO were more subdued holding above the 1.2580 area with low prints at 1.2595 before staging a modest rebound to the 1.2640/50 area. Traders report stops helping to drive trade in the rate but also note weaker energy. Both pairs are under interest rate watch as both Central Banks meet this week with cuts across the board expected. Some analysts have the BOE cutting a full 100 BP but a 50 BP cut is likely factored in to current pricing suggesting that a 50 BP cut will disappoint the market into the end of the week. Not so well anticipated in the ECB cut with most analysts calling for a 50 BP cut but given Trichet�s hawkish rhetoric a 25 BP cut is more likely leaving the EURO/USD differential favoring a firm EURO for the month. Not so clear is what the Fed will do at the December meeting where another 50 BP cut is rumored. Despite all the potential rate moves today�s US data was decidedly bearish leaving more underlying fundamentals the USD will have to eventually price in. PMI was down and so was Construction spending although both numbers were better than expected which might have provided a bit of upside support. USD/JPY held to established overnight ranges leaving the 99.66 high print unchallenged today. Cross spreaders appear willing to buy Yen to start the week but the rate is firm into the end of day around the 99.00 area. USD/CHF rallied to the 1.1700 handle for a high print at 1.1750 before backing off as stops above the 1.1720 area get triggered. The rate is now back to the earlier highs and due for a correction lower. Aggressive traders can look to sell the rate soon. Looking ahead to tomorrow the US Presidential election will dominate trader interest. Analysts are divided as to near-term direction depending on who wins; look for more two-way action overnight with an early USD rally in Asia overnight.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6550
Resistance 2: 1.6480
Resistance 1: 1.6400
Latest New York: 1.5835
Support 1: 1.5775
Support 2: 1.5700
Support 3: 1.5650/60

Comments

Rate falls back on cross-spreading reverses and fears of a large rate cut loom over traders; rate continues to correct into buy zone. Stops noted on the move lower during the day suggesting some bid interest is early. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Large range suggests more volatility coming soon. Traders note liquidity is better than last week. Aggressive traders can buy anytime on weakness but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders expect follow-on selling into Asia and then possibly the bottom.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Construction PMI
7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3150
Resistance 2: 1.3030
Resistance 1: 1.2900
Latest New York: 1.2648
Support 1: 1.2600
Support 2: 1.2550/60
Support 3: 1.2500

Comments

Rate two-way in solid action; bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Drop through early support finds stops and new lows attract technical selling. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported on a move over the 1.2900 area. 1.2700 handle fails to hold on a dip and stops likely cleared. Hook reversal showing from the toolbox suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate on dips. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers; conditions are right to buy on the next pullback in my view. OK to buy on a limit order. If oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
5:00am EUR PPI m/m
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meeting
Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · November 5, 2008, 2:41am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� US data shows more contraction, equities rally
� USD hit hard but drop may be temporary
� All eyes turn to election results

Overnight Preview

� Look for two-way trade and volatility
� Equities may soften in Tokyo

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y
� 8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
� 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
� 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories

Summary
The USD fell hard today as the equities and commodities rallied across the board. Most major pairs were driven by Yen liquidation most desks report making this rally in the majors likely only temporary. GBP rallied for a high print at 1.6108 before liquidation pressure stopped the advance; technical traders note the highs were also capped by aggressive selling by large names likely covering early longs or adding to open shorts. EURO also rallied for a high print at 1.3030 before dropping a full handle ahead of the close. Both pairs saw stops in waves easily overcome selling through the highs. USD/JPY rallied past near-term resistance for a high print at 100.55 before falling back to the 99 handle; Yen crosses dominated lifting the Greenback as it fell against other pairs. Other USD pairs also broke lower; Loonie and Swissy both fell through support but found technical buyers into the lows. Attention now turns to the outcome of the US election with an Obama win looking likely; equities held gains as market participants see a democratic win as mildly supportive at this time. In my view, the USD fallback was likely a book-squaring move and due to the large amount of interest in the Yen today likely to recover overnight. I would look for a two-way Wednesday tomorrow and if holding open USD shorts to remain nimble as volatility is still being exaggerated by thinner conditions; although many desks reported better volumes in GBP and EURO today. Expect the USD to whipsaw the next 24 hours as traders decide what to do with an Obama win or a McCain upset. Aggressive traders could be flat ahead of the Asian open.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6320/30
Resistance 2: 1.6250
Resistance 1: 1.6100/10
Latest New York: 1.5961
Support 1: 1.5600
Support 2: 1.5550
Support 3: 1.5500

Comments

Aggressive traders had their buy opp overnight as rate touched then bounced off support around the 1.5600 area; official buyers in the market lifting rate back to the psychological 1.6000 area. Fears of a large rate cut apparently not in play today. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.5780 area and above Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Large range suggests more volatility coming soon. Traders note liquidity is better than last week but still low. Aggressive traders should be flat ahead of the election results. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip overnight in both EURO and GBP; lately Asian names.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
4:30am GBP Services PMI
4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m
5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
10:30am GBP CB Leading Index m/m
7:01pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2990
Support 1: 1.2520/30
Support 2: 1.2500
Support 3: 1.2480

Comments

Rate falls to support and rallies as Asian sovereigns power the rate into stops back above the 1.2700 area; high prints at long objectives so aggressive traders should flatten out. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Semi-official names on the offer near the highs with stops reported on a move over the 1.2900 area. Stops likely cleared. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil rallies likely took EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:00am EUR Final Services PMI
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis by: Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

martin01 · November 5, 2008, 6:55am

Hello Friend,

I have also analyzed the market and written few points how r they please tell me.

EUR/USD intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 1.275
Our preference: Long positions above 1.275 with targets @ 1.291 & 1.3 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.275 look for further downside with 1.269 & 1.265 as targets.
Comments: the RSI broke above a bearish trend line.

GBP/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.581
Our preference: Long @ 1.582 with targets @ 1.6 & 1.6095 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.581 look for further downside with 1.5725 & 1.566 as targets.
Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

USD/JPY intraday: supported by a rising trend line.
Pivot: 99
Our preference: Long @ 99.1 with targets @ 100 & 100.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 99 look for further downside with 98.35 & 98 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

ForexPros · November 10, 2008, 9:16am

[B]Overnight Asia/Europe[/B]

� Equities firmer overnight; underpin EURO
� China announces stimulus plan, USD falls
� Commodities higher also helping the Majors

Today�s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� Tentative USD Assist Treasury Sec Kashkari Speaks
Light day for US news�expect two-way action.
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
� All Day USD Bank Holiday�Veterans Day
US data continues light tomorrow.
[B]
Summary[/B]
The USD opens New York mixed after a quiet two-way overnight session aided by non-USD cross spreading; minor economic news helped to underpin the majors as the week gets underway. Overnight China announced a large economic stimulus plan and �appropriate measures� to be taken in order to continue China�s record expansion; traders note that most of the Asian currencies were slightly weaker against the Yen and USD on the news. Equities rallied in Asia as well taking their cue from the news despite ongoing concerns of global recession; Wall Street is expected to open firmer today as well likely due to spillover effects from European bourses which are mostly higher as well. USD/JPY is the only pair holding gains this morning as demand for Yen continues; high prints at 99.49 are still below major topside pressure around the 100.00 area but traders note solid offers are likely waiting. Low prints in the rate at 98.65 so far unchallenged in early New York leaving a narrow range to start the week. Traders note reserve-manager buying of EURO/GBP today helping to lift the EURO today; higher oil and gold pricing also underpinning the rate today; high prints so far at 1.2928 with the rate firm at 1.2900 area to start New York. Traders note that EURO has stops likely building above the 1.2950 area with resistance around 1.3000 making for a potential top to start the week. GBP is solidly two-way but holding some lift from spillover in EURO; high prints at 1.5886 before sellers emerged putting the pair into the 1.5780 area in early New York. Traders note solid sales by Russians at the highs helping to cap the rate on the rally. In my view, the majors are continuing to consolidate their recent dip lower as the flight to quality USD buying appears to be mitigating. Although world credit conditions are still very tight it is beginning to show signs of loosening enough for traders to begin seeing reasons to let loose of extra USD perhaps. The majors are likely to remain in two-way trade until the end of the year as traders digest both the economic conditions as they are as well as what the new US President will bring to the table initially. In my view, the USD is setting up to decline as the US economy is likely in recession with little to do to help without a significant new stimulus. What has been done will take time to filter into the system and new plans will take time as well. Until then, the Greenback is likely to remain range bound to lower as traders attempt to make sense of the potential speed of the recovery.
[B]
GBP/USD Daily[/B]

Resistance 3: 1.6320/30
Resistance 2: 1.6250
Resistance 1: 1.6100/10
Latest New York: 1.5795
Support 1: 1.5520/30
Support 2: 1.5500
Support 3: 1.5420

[B]Comments[/B]

Cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure overnight; rate firm against USD in two-way action. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.5800 area on the way higher with offers mixed in; resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. UK PPI data was weaker but not as bad as expected; likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Trade Balance
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y
[B]
EURO/USD Daily [/B]

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2900
Support 1: 1.2520/30
Support 2: 1.2500
Support 3: 1.2480

[B]Comments[/B]

Short squeeze likely over if the rate can trade 1.3000 handle this week. Expect a rotation lower as the rate continues to consolidate in two-way action. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try. Russians buying EURO around the 1.2860 area last week traders say; offers from same likely were seen in GBP this morning. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Additional Oil rally likely will take EURO with it. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
2:00am EUR German WPI m/m
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5)

Analysis Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

[B]Disclaimer:[/B]
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · November 11, 2008, 3:05am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� USD holds gains despite thin conditions
� Equities fail to advance, oil rallies but fades
� China news not enough to inspire confidence

Overnight Preview

� Holiday trade will make for thin conditions
� Look for continued two-way action in thin trade

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
� All Day USD Bank Holiday�Veterans Day
US data continues light tomorrow.

Summary
The USD ended near the highs of the day in late New York as the major pairs failed to hold early overnight gains. Despite a higher opening on Wall Street equities gains fizzled as investor confidence started the week on a down note; early excitement over the Chinese stimulus package announced over the weekend did not attract further buying. Traders note that continued concerns over emergency funding requested for the car makers weighed on investors as well as volatility in energy prices; crude oil had near a $6.50 range on the day before giving back gains and closing slightly better. With a US bank holiday due tomorrow liquidity in the markets was light and many desks only had skeleton crews as traders made a long weekend out of the Tuesday holiday. FX markets will be closed in the US for most of the day tomorrow and overnight action is expected to be very light as well; traders say that the exceptionally lower volumes and thin conditions likely exaggerated moves in the Greenback again today after early volumes died post-fix today. After a better start overnight despite cross-spreading for other pairs, the GBP made marginal lows late in the day for a low print at 1.5582 with volumes described as dismal. EURO/GBP cross made lifetime highs overnight before correcting but the focus remains centered on the EURO side of the cross; traders note that despite pressure from GBP EURO held up technically well and analysts note technically bullish developments point to a potential short-squeeze coming soon. Tomorrow�s action is expected to be light and tight-ranged with EURO likely to remain within existing ranges barring any unforeseen fundamental developments. High prints in EURO at 1.2928 were not challenged in New York after the open; low prints came late in the session at 1.2739 before bids showed up. USD/JPY failed to advance as equities advanced on the open leaving the 99.49 highs intact and slowly deflated lower all day; low prints at 97.59 remain under threat into the close. On the day the USD is trading inside established ranges with more of the same expected in holiday trade tomorrow. In my view, any dip in the majors is a buying opportunity and aggressive traders can buy further weakness in EURO and GBP; under the 1.2700 handle in EURO and under the 1.5500 area in GBP. Look for a bit of follow-on selling of the majors overnight but due to holiday trade conditions will likely be thin and whippy.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6320/30
Resistance 2: 1.6250
Resistance 1: 1.6100/10
Latest New York: 1.5578
Support 1: 1.5550
Support 2: 1.5520/30
Support 3: 1.5420

Comments

Cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure overnight; rate gives back gains against USD in thin two-way action. Stops noted on the move back through the 1.5800 area on the way higher with offers mixed in; resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. UK PPI data was weaker but not as bad as expected; likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP reaches a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Trade Balance
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2728
Support 1: 1.2680
Support 2: 1.2550
Support 3: 1.2480

Comments

Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; likely they will be gone for the holiday so more losses likely. Aggressive traders can buy the next dip under the 1.2700 handle. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try if a bounce from potential pennant bottom holds. Russians buying EURO around the 1.2860 area last week traders say; offers from same likely were seen in GBP this morning. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
2:00am EUR German WPI m/m
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

Analysis written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · November 12, 2008, 2:27am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� USD rallies in thin conditions
� No news, likely technical trade
� Equities fall driving EURO lower

Overnight Preview

� Look for two-way action and consolidation
� Better liquidity will help with ranges

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 11:00am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
� 1:00pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks

Summary
Despite a US holiday and thin conditions the USD rallied after the start of the mostly-closed New York markets opened today; traders note that technical factors likely drove trade as the USD rose to new highs against the Swiss Franc. Rising to a new two-year high for a high print at 1.1880 conditions were dismal as traders were forced to cover back open shorts expected to be set into Wednesday. News was light as the Greenback continued to rally all day making significant highs against all pairs but still holding existing monthly ranges for the most part. EURO sank back under the 1.2600 handle in a surprise move as US equities fell back for triple-digit losses; low prints at 1.2508 making a mess of near-term balance sheets. GBP also fell in sympathy with EURO for a low print at 1.5361 finding stops under the 1.5500 handle layered all the way under 1.5400; traders note cross-spreading continued for Yen as the Yen held firm across the board. USD/JPY held earlier ranges but did drop on equities weakness for a low print at 97.30 before recovering back to trade the 98.00 handle but was unable to hold. In my view, the USD benefited today from super-thin conditions and poor liquidity driving back to test previous highs but is unlikely to hold gains. Two-way trade is likely into tomorrow and the lows from the major pairs are likely to hold at least for one try. Tomorrow�s data is likely not to be market moving at all suggesting that more technical trade is coming. Look for two-way action tonight in Asia with light follow-on buying of USD early overnight.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.6320/30
Resistance 2: 1.6250
Resistance 1: 1.6100/10
Latest New York: 1.5402
Support 1: 1.5380
Support 2: 1.5280/1.5300
Support 3: 1.5220

Comments

Follow-on selling drops rate, cross-spreaders on the sell side of the sterling pairs kept the rate under pressure. Thin two-way action. Stops under the 1.5500 area drop rate into next support area around 1.5400. Technical trade overnight. Resistance at 1.6000 likely to cap near-term. Likely more bad news also due this week which will pressure calls for another BOE rate cut next month but that might be factored in. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP still near a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate
5:30am GBP BOE Governor King Speaks
5:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2535
Support 1: 1.2480
Support 2: 1.2420/30
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments

Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; Russians possibly buying on the dips. Stops under the 1.2600 area possibly in size. Traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on first try if a bounce from potential pennant bottom holds. Bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m
1:00pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)
Forex Analysis - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · November 13, 2008, 4:52am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� Thin conditions exaggerate moves, USD firms
� GBP at new six-year low
� Other pairs two-way and volatile

Overnight Preview

� Look for two-way action overnight
� USD likely to consolidate ahead of news

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 8:30am USD Trade Balance
� 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
� 11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories
� 11:00am USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
� 2:00pm USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks
� 2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance

Summary
Thin liquidity continued to plague traders today as USD buying at the London Fix drove the majors to fresh lows for the week and in the case of the GBP to multi-year lows. GBP is now trading at prices not seen since January of 2002 with a low print at 1.4893 before likely profit taking bids supported for a rally to the 1.5000 handle. Gains were short-lived after the noon hour as both the GBP and EURO slowly deflated to finish lower on the day. Dragged lower by GBP, EURO held above the 1.2450 area of rumored stops for a low print at 1.2466 before recovering a full handle in later trade; gains evaporated as the rate returned to the 1.2500 area in to the end of day. Traders note in both pairs that moves may have been exaggerated but the bears remain in control although EURO is holding firmer likely due to cross-spreading for Sterling which took the brunt of the moves today. USD/JPY fell as stocks retreated as has been the case dropping to a low print at 94.46 before short-covering lifted the rate a full handle back to the 95.60 area in late trade. Yen crosses again in focus the past 24 hours as the Yen appears the strongest currency on the board today; traders note that all the major Yen and Sterling pairs are suffering deep losses and volatility making for violent and difficult trade. Spillover weakness against the USD appears to be by default but the result is the same as traders hold long USD. USD/CHF fell making a hook reversal on the day for a low print at 1.1762 before recovering a full handle back to the 1.1860 area putting the bears on the defense after early topping formations are pressured. Traders note that commodity pricing and weaker stocks may be adding a bit of lift to the rate as gold and oil were lower today. Despite USD two-way action elsewhere the USD/CAD remains firm finding stops and active buying above the 1.2300 handle with tech resistance between 1.2330 and 1.2390 area offering some cap to the rate; traders note the rate has retraced a solid 50% from the recent drop and sellers are active but still plagued by thin conditions. In my view, the USD is whipsawing hard exacerbated by thin conditions and signs of topping are evident but so far the bid is still on for Greenbacks. Overseas data is light tonight but heavy in the US suggesting a round of profit-taking by the USD longs may surface tonight in Asia. Look for more two-way consolidation ahead of US data in the morning.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5800
Resistance 2: 1.5500
Resistance 1: 1.5250
Latest New York: 1.4944
Support 1: 1.4900
Support 2: 1.4810/20
Support 3: 1.4750

Comments

Selling just relentless as cross-spreaders and thin conditions find no bids; low prints at 1.4895 are a new six-year low. Some stops noted on the break of 1.5100 but absolutely no two-way action yet. Technical trade overnight, more expected tonight as well as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5500 area likely to cap near-term. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note unwinding of Yen cross-spreads driving a lot of trade after the open. EURO/GBP still near a record high encouraging a round of profit taking soon I think. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action needed to find a bottom.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
NONE

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3200/10
Resistance 2: 1.3150
Resistance 1: 1.3030
Latest New York: 1.2490
Support 1: 1.2480
Support 2: 1.2420/30
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments

Rate drops back in thin conditions; resistance is sold but large names on the dips traders say; Russians possibly buying on the dips. Two-way action all day despite weakness elsewhere; lows hold around weekly lows despite new low by GBP. Stops under the 1.2450 area possibly in size; rate holding 1.2500 into the close a good sign for the bulls. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap on strength ahead of 1.2700 I think; bids on dips from profit-taking shorts some desks report. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP and vice-versa suggesting both pairs may track each other near-term. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m
4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)
Forex Analysis- Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · November 17, 2008, 9:41am

Overnight Asia/Europe

� G-20 fails to inspire the USD bulls
� Majors initially weaker then reverse into New York
� Japan data benign

Today�s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
� 9:00am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
� 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate
� 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 8:30am USD PPI m/m
� 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
� 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
� 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index

Summary
Disappointment from the weekend G-20 summit in Washington gave USD bulls a slight advantage in early Asian trade but the Greenback is off marginally against the majors by the start of New York trade. Initially expecting strong rhetoric or even an agreement of some kind to give traders a reason to believe the credit crisis will be resolved quickly, the statement was seen as �more of the same� by most traders. Trading down to recent support and then rallying, GBP and EURO are still inside-range to start the week. Low prints in Cable at 1.4650 encouraged a round of short-covering and traders report large investment groups on the bid as the rate rose through stops around the 1.4850 area; high prints so far at 1.4966 with the rate holding the 1.4900 handle in early trade. EURO fell to tech support at 1.2513 holding the important 1.2500 handle on the dip with light stops reported under the 1.2550 area; high prints on the recovery at 1.2702 with stops reported around the 1.;2630 area in light trade. The two-way action suggesting that both pairs are tracking each other with the main interest seen in the crosses; Yen continued to remain stronger despite the drop in Q3 GDP estimates released overnight. High prints in USD/JPY at 97.57 in Asia before profit-taking hit the rate along with exporter selling traders say; low prints at 95.92 with the rate holding firm around 96.50 in early New York. USD/CHF rallied to a new two-year high before reversing; high prints at 1.2010 with lows at 1.1886. Making yet another hook reversal on the daily charts the USD/CHF is really trying hard to find a top and aggressive traders can sell the rate over the 1.1950 area today looking for the reversal to hold. Following the Swissy higher was Loonie making a try for highs over the 1.2400 handle; high prints at 1.2426 before reversing for lows at 1.2220; the rate holding early New York a full handle off the highs at 1.2320. With a light economic calendar for the start of the week the USD is likely to continue in two-way trade with the technical�s mostly driving trade. Late buyers will likely have stops close-in suggesting some whippy action is also possible. To start the week it is apparent that the USD bulls are getting tired at current pricing; I think the potential for a long-liquidating break is building and if the USD can�t extend gains by mid-week I would look for a drop in the Greenback to end the week.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5150
Resistance 2: 1.5080
Resistance 1: 1.4990/1.5000
Latest New York: 1.4918
Support 1: 1.4650
Support 2: 1.4580
Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500

Comments

Rate rallies off technical support on G-20 news; potential short-squeeze with more likely coming. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Rate rejecting trade inside previous wick is a sign of bid pressure taking the lows; likely some spillover from EURO. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850 area and the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5000 area likely to cap near-term. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip. Expect more whippy action. Two-way action needed to find a bottom and we saw some of that last week near the lows.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
10:30am GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.2900
Resistance 2: 1.2850
Resistance 1: 1.2820/30
Latest New York: 1.2645
Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500
Support 2: 1.2450/60
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments

Rate follows GBP higher from overnight but still an inside range despite two-way action. Still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2630 area or so cleared after the lows suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 24 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5)

Forex Analysis by Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros · November 18, 2008, 3:48am

Today�s US Dollar Trading

� USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade
� Equities rally lifts EURO
� Volumes remain light

Overnight Preview

� Look for follow-on USD selling
� Two-way action likely as technical�s dominate

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
� 8:30am USD PPI m/m
� 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
� 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
� 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index

Summary
After starting overnight Asia better the USD reversed to continue mostly lower as US equities attempted to rally to start the week. Traders note that volumes thinned out after the London fix but the majors continued to hold gains and advance. GBP rallied into stops placed above the 1.5000/10 area for a high print at 1.5085 as stops above the 1.5050 area also were triggered; large investment house bids and sovereign bids were seen in earlier trade helping to hold the rate firm. As equities advanced into their highs EURO found additional stops above 1.2710 area for a high print at 1.2743 before backing off as equities deflated but not before two attempts at stops above the 1.2750 area were turned back. Poor economic data in the US also helped to keep the majors firm and tomorrows data is likely to remain unfriendly to the USD, traders expect additional upside pressure in both EURO and GBP after today�s upside action scored above near-term resistance. USD/JPY tracked stocks as expected and lifted to an intraday high at 97.57 before dropping back later in the day; traders note that two-way action and Yen cross spreading continue to dominate action and further losses are likely this week. Upside resistance is high above the 98.00 handle suggesting that the USD may be finding willing sellers on rallies. USD/CHF continued to hover at or near the two-year high around the 1.1950 area with thin conditions exaggerating the moves but high prints at 1.2010 went unchallenged in New York trade. In my view, the USD is setting up for a long-liquidating break near-term. Technical trade and low volumes likely have helped the Greenback hold recent gains but additional US data and overbought conditions suggests that at least a correction is due. Failure of the USD to score new highs this week make a correction to end the month more likely in my view. Aggressive traders can look to sell USD/CHF above the 1.2000 handle and sell USD/CAD above the 1.2375 area; expect volatility and always run your stops.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5200/10
Resistance 2: 1.5150
Resistance 1: 1.5080
Latest New York: 1.5028
Support 1: 1.4650
Support 2: 1.4580
Support 3: 1.4480/1/4500

Comments

Rate rallies off technical support on G-20 news; potential short-squeeze with more likely coming. Cross spreaders continue to hold interest near-term; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Rate rejecting trade inside previous wick is a sign of bid pressure taking the lows; likely some spillover from EURO. Thin conditions continue to exacerbate moves. Some stops noted on the break back over the 1.4850, 1.5000, and 1.5050 areas; the rate continues two-way on the move. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. Resistance now at the 1.5000 area likely to cap near-term; expect a pullback of some kind. BOE rate cut next month increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
10:30am GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.2850
Resistance 2: 1.2800
Resistance 1: 1.2750
Latest New York: 1.2670
Support 1: 1.2520/1.2500
Support 2: 1.2450/60
Support 3: 1.2400

Comments

Rate follows GBP higher from overnight; attempts highs late despite two-way action. Still suggesting a point on indecision; traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2630 area or so cleared after the lows suggesting short-term traders active. New weekly low rejected fairly hard suggesting a re-test is a solid buy if not already long on the dip. Traders report some semi-official interest the past 24 hours. Resistance is still formidable but large names on the dips traders say. On a rally, traders note large stops at the 1.2950 area with more over 1.3000 but offers likely to cap. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Official interest noted traders say. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view�I can�t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
1:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Forex Analysis by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.