Any apprehension trading tomorrow with the Brexit vote and potentially bad juju flowing over to EURUSD?
@mtb_rex, I avoid trading the news. But for this one I would expect a fail of No deal Brexit vote today and a success of extension of Brexit date vote tomorrow. This would mean bullish momentum for both EUR and GBP. But it’s better for GBP, cause German economy is very sluggish and I would not expect a big rally on EUR. I would look for short opportunities on EUR USD somewhere near 1.13 and long opportunity on GBP right after the vote. But I will avoid GBP trade unless there is a clear PA signal that fits my strat.
@Wightpips, thanks for the comment!
Your CADJPY trade looks a bit risky, cause the 83.800 major resistance is in front of you, so it could turn out as a head and shoulders pattern. But if the price breaks through, there could be a place for a huge rally. And the entry point and signal are really nice. So, good luck with this one!
BTW, if stocks rally, probably oil will too which would mean also a rally in CADJPY 
So, we basically on the same side
See what you mean, I expect it might stall there a bit… and hopefully carry on - You clearly know more about correlation than me though
Personally I think all of the downside to the pound is built in already - after all it has dropped some 14% and in reality nothing has changed - its all about the uncertainty. Vote yes = big gain (certainty), vote for delay = nothing or small drop, ditto more pointless political point scoring - same uncertainty.
If some of the anti-deal people publicly come over the rest will follow. Thought about buying it against the yen as it’s weak - but big resistance at 149 - so on reflection think I’ll leave the news trading to others and like you look for some clear PA.
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Nice way to think about the Brexit news. I’ll be still paying attention as it is the first time I am able to follow a story like this, for a long time and see how it reflects on the markets. It will be very interesting if some unprecedented third option comes into play, even as a rumor.
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There’s a good discussion of Brexit going on here
Excellent advice. Always go back to your strategy and analysis. Thanks!
Yup, I’m thinking this too.
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Alright, folks, my Dow Jones trade hit TP today. And I even managed to squeeze in a pyramiding step from 25800 to 26000, to add to profits. Well done, so to say.
Right now I see a nice bearish pinbar forming and if it does form, I will go short on DJ, trageting at least 25300 and maybe more. If not, I will be on the sidelines.
@Wightpips , if you are in the CADJPY long, I would quit if today ends with a bearish pinbar at that level. Seems like there could be a big reversal. I might even go short myself, if it does, thanks for the idea! 
There is also a huge fakey bullish pinbar forming at USDCAD, if you look at 4H chart, it is straight off 200 SMA. A nice signal to go long. Will be watching this one as well.
Nice job on the S&P/DJ 
- I learnt my lesson with that one about staying with the trend, really should have entered long at the same place as you - always another trade! Though I will be watching to get in on a re-trace if there is a pullback.
I am long CAD/JPY, but at the moment I just see it dithering - I will be out if there is a bearish PB or I will possibly be scaling in if I get a close above the S/R around 83.800 that you mentioned earlier.
I put a long stop order on the CAD/USD Daily at close last night - looks like it could be good!
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Thank you, @Wightpips!
Oh, what a day we have today, ha?!
My buy limit order for USDCAD has been activated at 1.329 and I entered manually for DJ short at 25900 and CADJPY at 83.3. Feeling a little bit uneasy about DJ due to very wide SL, 200 points. Overall exposure with these three trades is also a bit too much, but I accept the risk of loss. Let’s see how this plays out.
For those following Brexit - stay out of this one, guys! The probability of no deal is now rising after today’s events. If this will be the case, it will a spectacular example of collective self-harm.
Holding my nerve on the CAD/JPY - that tanked pretty quick! My stop is almost at B/E at 83.1 so I’ll let it run. Funny how the mind plays tricks - you (not in the trade) see a bearish pin bar, me (in a long trade) see an undecided bar !
However when I look left I can see a similar volatile pattern - I had set my stop to the 10 day ATR rather than right at B/E - not sure that’s going to save it but at least I traded the plan.
Every pair with GBP on one side has the same WTF? pattern 
Are you sure your DJ entry wasn’t a bit driven by your previous win - in the same way my non entry in the same was driven by my previous loss!
I was a bit more cautious on the USD/CAD and used a stop entry - I like to see it heading the right direction before I jump on it - not triggered yet.
Still in EUR/JPY from 9 days ago at +140, though I just tightened the stop right up after the pin bar-ish yesterday - no S/R though so not bailing yet…
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@Wightpips, your comment is of maximum value to me! Although I read it after I have quit my DJ entry (with minimum loss), you precisely explained the reason for me taking that trade - winner’s bias from recent successful trade. I think that DJ might go south, but with possible US-China trade deal soon (which might spark a rally in stocks) I think I better stay away.
I am with you on CAD/JPY, we have now reached the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, so I added another position from there on, at 82.4, targetting 80.
USDCAD seems to develop alright, let’s see how it behaves at recent swing high, 1.346. If a bearish signal is forming there, I quit. If a weak pullback with pussible bullish signal, I add to the position.
GBP is a mess, really. And JPY really became the winner now, on any pair, it seems. Meanwhile EURUSD produced a failed breakout and now returning to the downward channel. If anyone made a blind entry at 1.14, they are now pretty happy
I also put buy limits on NZDUSD and AUDUSD for those huge pinbars that they produced. But I put entries high enough to reduce the risk. I dn’t think they will be triggered.
Yep we have all done it - glad you got out with minimal damage.
I put a sell limit ion the EUR/USD last night but it didn’t trigger - most of the recent similar patterns had a big spike up before diving down - but not this one - so I missed it by a few pips.
Stopped out CAD/JPY - but only for 3 pips loss, 7 days up 2 down! Now watching for a reversal so I can go with the trend.
I’m in the USD/CAD as my entry was triggered - looks good so far- thinking the same about the 1.346 level
Did OK in EUR/JPY my stop got me out at about 135pips so happy with that.
Thanks for the heads up I’ll take a look at the NZD and AUS after NY close.
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Took at look at the AUS and NZD thanks for that- NZD is a bit too choppy for me and the AUS is a bit aimless - I like something with a direction or a range up/down/sideways type pattern. Sounds like you have a good structured entry though.
CAD/JPY looking good for you, are you sure about the 80 level for a TP though ? Looking at the weekly line chart there is quite strong historic support around the 80.56-80.80 mark - if I was in it I would be looking at nearer to 81 for a safe exit.
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Thank you, @Wightpips! Let’s look at it together. I will now describe what I see and would then be thankful for your input!
AUD USD is in a clear downtrend. It broke out of a channel in late October 2018. But it has since set up a new descending channel. Since late January 2019 we see two clear downward legs (waves) with lower lows and with weak corrective movement, failing to make higher highs. And the Thursday’s pinbar marked a possible end to corrective movement at 61.8 Fib level of recent downswing. My take would be that the price will go down as far as the September-December 2015 lows, at 0.69. Or at least to the lower border of the new channel, at 0.696. But I have already missed the entry on Friday and do not want to put too much risk into the trade, given that I have two other open trades. So, I guess I will let it go unless I see a lower risk entry in following days or later on at some lower point.
NZD USD is in a range that is getting narrower since November-December 2018. The price on Thursday bounced off the upper boundary of the channel forming a pinbar. A good entry here would target the lower boundary of the channel, 0.6725, or pre-flashcrash low of 0.666. But again, no handy entry was in sight on Friday. If it does appear, somewhere at 0.69, I will go for it. If not, I will let it go.
CAD JPY is a very nice head and shoulders, it seems to me. A double shoulder on the left at 83.8, a head above 85 (bounced off 200 daily SMA) and a shoulder on the right at 83.8 with pinbars that marked failed breakouts above that level. The neckline is almost flat at 82.425. According to the textbooks, we should expect the price to go down from the neckline the same distance it went from the top of the head to the neckline. That is, 280 pips, as I see it. So, the target would be 82.425 - 2.800 = somewhere near 79.625. I never came across such a clean H&S pattern, so I am very thrilled about this one. Aiming at 80.5 level to not be greedy
By the way CADJPY became top SW trade on Friday. I would potentially expect the return of the price to the neckline or near it and enter from there, with 100 pips SL, but I have already entered from the neckline at 82.4, as I posted on Friday. If no such pullback I personally would have let this trade go.
USD CAD - we have analyzed it before. But pay attention to the weekly chart. The bearish week before the last one had been an inside bar in a clear uptrend. And our last week when we entered was a bullish engulfing based on failed bearish breakout from the inside bar. So, we should be very optimistic if price goes beyond 1.347 and add to the position, like we discussed earlier.
Finally, look at DJ Oh dear, I should have held on to my trade! I think that even the US-China deal will not spark a significant rally, cause the US economy is clearly slowing down. So I think I will be seeking a re-entry on DJ/SP/NASDAQ to go short. For DJ - somewhere at 26000 with 26200 SL. DJ looks good to me, cause on the weekly chart we have a coil inside bar setup which promises us an explosive breakout. My guess is that it will be downwards.
With all that said, we certainly remember that in the market ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. And all of the above is just my personal view of what’s going on.
Would be happy to read your thought on these, @Wightpips! And from other guys on BabyPips as well, certainly!
@belarusian.by Thanks, that’s a lot of work in that analysis!
I draw look at trends from the close line charts Monthly/weekly/daily, interestingly when you switch to line on the AUD/USD then the down trend is not so clear.
To me the last month is a narrow range and whilst there is the pin bar I don’t see anything to define an exit.
Looking again at the NZD/USD, I like your thinking! The upper range is a weekly SR line (thicker in the pic) as well so I am with you in looking for a confirmed rejection and entry for a short down to .673 mark
With you on the USD/CAD. watching carefully for what happens at 1.347
The S+P Weekly has a bearish pin too, but still not convinced 
. I am looking at it as a re-trace so if I see any bullish action I will be straight in (well with a stop entry anyway)
Thanks again for this - I am now added NZD/USD to my watch list, there is room as I just deleted anything with GBP in it!
Great perspective here. Glad you caught that and made time to share it.
Thanks for sharing your views!
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@belarusian.by hope you caught the NZD/USD down elevator too! Thanks for the tip on that one. As it tanked 80 pips overnight I am having to sit on my profit taking hands so that I trade the plan to .673 - I have recently made a rule that I can not get out early for less than 2:1 unless there is a clear end of day signal.
Busy evening, as I put a sell stop on NZD/JPY as it is sitting on a strong S/R line so I have an entry below that.
A Buy Stop on the S+P if it breaks the SR at around 2816 and a Sell stop on the EUR/NZD as it just hit the top of its down trend channel, but there is no PA so it might just blow right through - but stop entries are cheap!
@mtb_rex, you are welcome! and will be happy to read your thoughts on the markets as well.
@Wightpips, nice to hear you are in NZDUSD as well. My sell limit was activated, so now I am waiting for the target at that level as well. Also holding on to CADJPY and USDCAD.
For stocks I am patiently waiting a handy entry point to go short, on DJ It looks like this week will be another inside bar in the succession of coiling inside bars, 4th in a row. That promises an explosive breakout, albeit unclear in what direction There are some events that support bullish bias - like possible long delay of Brexit, fixing of Boeing stuff and US-China trade deal. But US economy is obviously slowing down (as yesterday’s data showed) and no deal Brexit is also a higher probability event now. So I am kind of bear on stocks markets
As we can see from the SW thread, most of other markets are in congestion too with top and bottom pairs being within 2% range. That means that we might see some intensive moves all across the board in the future. And hope to get on the right side.
There has been a nice bullish pinbar on Brent Oil recently. Although not too far from the top. I will skip this one. And the same we had on AUS200, resulting in a nice bullish candle. We’ll see if it has a follow through.
By the way, @Wightpips, did you hit TP on your gold trade? Got out on time?
Good luck to us all!
@belarusian.by Nope got stopped out on Gold - and had my two stop entry’s triggered and stopped out in the same move and missed the short of EUR/USD - so not a good day yesterday. However learned a few things about over exposure to one currency and entry placement so not a complete waste (he says through gritted teeth!).
I am bullish on the S+P waiting for a close above the 2816 SR - I did have a stop entry but sworn off them until I figure out how to avoid the same farce as yesterday!
On a separate subject the passive aggressive notes from the forum algorithm when I post are really getting on my wick.
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