Alright, my trade has been going well so far, but I quit at 70 pips profit, at 1.1330, making it 2:1 RR, a day ago. Obviously I should not have done that and could have locked in almost twice that profit even that same day. So I see this as a fail - too strong desire for controlling what cannot be controlled. It would be interesting to see, though, whether this one will eventually reach the 1.126 initial target.
While I am studying the Strong Weak analysis thread, it weights a lot on my mind and I feel the need to factor it into my trading. But I have not yet fully understood how I can sync my strat/approach with SW. Will work on that more.
Looks like I was right to exit and you were right to enter!
70 pips on a 2:1 is not exactly a disaster!
I just bailed early shorting gold, thought it was going to be a short re-trace but it’s still going down - (though I am watching for some PA around the 1280 mark or beyond that the 20MA) to get back in long.
From a psychology point of view I think either set and forget (sit on your hands!), a fixed RR ratio or number of pips. That way you save all that self recrimination - it changes from “I got that wrong” to “I followed the plan”
I am still settling on my trading style, I am very much minimalist PA and don’t trade below the daily. Trying out 3 slightly different approaches to see which one suits.
The SW analysis to me is about an edge when choosing which pair to trade - more of a pointer of where to look - of course when you look there you may or may not see an entry depending on what you are looking for.
Oh hope you don’t mind my thoughts/conversation in your journal, I won’t be offended if you do!
@Wightpips , I absolutely enjoy your comment, so, please, share whatever thoughts you have.
As you see from today’s results, my exit from EURUSD short trade at 70 pips was a disastrous mistake, costing me over 100 pips of lost profit. Should have stayed away from the charts.
At least you were in it - as per my comment I just didn’t see it - Anyway, there is always another trade. USD seems to be on a rocket today (excuse the fundamental analysis )
Yep read the whole SW thread, I look at Dennis’s sheet and the 2 websites though this one mainly Forex Power Indicator | Trading Strategy Guides as the other one re-sets after NY close which is when I look at the charts.
Got 3 trades on all of a sudden as my S&P short stop triggered, I’m short AUD/USD and I have a Short CAD/JPY using a different system. Apart from moving to a trailing stop I hope not to mess - though I forgot it was NFP tomorrow. oops…
So having sworn off EUR/USD I am possibly back in with a buy Stop just above the 8/3 candle (daily) - bit of an experiment as it is a strange looking inside bar I guess - but I do see it repeated at 3 out of the last 5 swing lows and it closed just above S/R. TP at 1.133 on the top channel line.
Couple of things I found this week end you might fine interesting - Oanda’s sophisticated SW analyser - this is updated 1hr before NY close Currency Strength | OANDA watch the vid to understand it! - Also has XAG & XAU
Also talking of vid’s I came across this guys channel, check out the play list- all his stuff, good and entertaining (promo starts to get a bit much on the more recent ones!) YouTube - did an interesting vid on "large numbers! ie probability distribution - flipping a coin 100 times he still managed to get 9 heads in a row - so 9 consecutive losses on a 50/50 win rate …
Hey, Wightpips, thank you for the input! I think your EURUSD trade might make sense. This inside bar showed some strength in bulls. But I will not jump on it, prefer to avoid countertrend.
Those strength meters seem to be really nice. As far as I get it, if we put in 1 month timeframe into them we will get smth pretty close to what Dennis does in SW thread. Or not? Anyways, I am still not sure of how to look at those. I don’t think I have the time to run more than one strat. And I would like to stick to what I have learned a bit with NF, cause it seems to me I am getting some grip of it So, my challenge then is to factor in SW analysis (any version of it) into that framework.
The only thing I have come up with so far is to use SW analysis for lower timeframe entries, off 4h or 1h charts, in good trends. But it definitely requires more attention to stuff like for how long a pair has been of top/lowest strength, how big is the percentage difference between the extreme pairs and so on. I haven’t got the understanding of it yet. What I see now is that all of the pairs are within 1.35% range which is too little to give a clue of where things are heading.
Meanwhile - my congrats to you on your Gold long trade! I regret I missed it. Hope it will go back to 1320.
I am also curious about the bullish pinbar on DJ index. If there is a handy, lower risk entry, I will be in it (will set buy limit order at 25300 with SL below daily 200 SMA, at 24995, targeting return to 26100).
If I get the basics of markets correlation right, possible surge in stocks would mean USD weakness might come back, at least for a while. So I would not take an AUDUSD trade, although it is very tempting.
There is the same bullish pinbar on oil charts. But the structure of this is not as clear to me as on DJ charts.
@mtb_rex, see my reply to @Wightpips. I would not jump on this trade right away. Cause the price might well go all the way to the upper border of the channel. So I would wait for it somewhere there and then a bearish PA signal to enter short.
Yeah, so much to look at out there Thankfully, I don’t have the time for this, like physically
Meanwhile my Dow Jones buy limit order has been triggered today due to the Boeing affair. Since then price seems to have reversed and gone my way for a while. Let’s see if there will be a follow up.
One thing I am happy about is that this specific signal was highlighted in NF’s recent weekly commentary (I posted it here before he posted his). Just like previous EURUSD pinbar signal. To me that means that I am probably having some progress with mastering his approach. Which is good, because the essence of it is to trade what’s obvious
Probably the same time as my S&P 500 got stopped out (basically the same index) - though I saw the pin bar on Friday and put a very tight stop on it so only a small loss. Really should have put a buy stop in at the same place - not thinking!
Thanks for the comment on the Gold - no matter how it goes I have been planning it since the 21/2 (notes all over my chart) so feeling that I was in control of the trade entry.
Have just gone long CAD/JPY its a bit slow and winding but a good set up with a tight SL.
@mtb_rex, I avoid trading the news. But for this one I would expect a fail of No deal Brexit vote today and a success of extension of Brexit date vote tomorrow. This would mean bullish momentum for both EUR and GBP. But it’s better for GBP, cause German economy is very sluggish and I would not expect a big rally on EUR. I would look for short opportunities on EUR USD somewhere near 1.13 and long opportunity on GBP right after the vote. But I will avoid GBP trade unless there is a clear PA signal that fits my strat.
Your CADJPY trade looks a bit risky, cause the 83.800 major resistance is in front of you, so it could turn out as a head and shoulders pattern. But if the price breaks through, there could be a place for a huge rally. And the entry point and signal are really nice. So, good luck with this one!
BTW, if stocks rally, probably oil will too which would mean also a rally in CADJPY So, we basically on the same side
See what you mean, I expect it might stall there a bit… and hopefully carry on - You clearly know more about correlation than me though
Personally I think all of the downside to the pound is built in already - after all it has dropped some 14% and in reality nothing has changed - its all about the uncertainty. Vote yes = big gain (certainty), vote for delay = nothing or small drop, ditto more pointless political point scoring - same uncertainty.
If some of the anti-deal people publicly come over the rest will follow. Thought about buying it against the yen as it’s weak - but big resistance at 149 - so on reflection think I’ll leave the news trading to others and like you look for some clear PA.
Nice way to think about the Brexit news. I’ll be still paying attention as it is the first time I am able to follow a story like this, for a long time and see how it reflects on the markets. It will be very interesting if some unprecedented third option comes into play, even as a rumor.
Alright, folks, my Dow Jones trade hit TP today. And I even managed to squeeze in a pyramiding step from 25800 to 26000, to add to profits. Well done, so to say.
Right now I see a nice bearish pinbar forming and if it does form, I will go short on DJ, trageting at least 25300 and maybe more. If not, I will be on the sidelines.
@Wightpips , if you are in the CADJPY long, I would quit if today ends with a bearish pinbar at that level. Seems like there could be a big reversal. I might even go short myself, if it does, thanks for the idea!
There is also a huge fakey bullish pinbar forming at USDCAD, if you look at 4H chart, it is straight off 200 SMA. A nice signal to go long. Will be watching this one as well.
Nice job on the S&P/DJ - I learnt my lesson with that one about staying with the trend, really should have entered long at the same place as you - always another trade! Though I will be watching to get in on a re-trace if there is a pullback.
I am long CAD/JPY, but at the moment I just see it dithering - I will be out if there is a bearish PB or I will possibly be scaling in if I get a close above the S/R around 83.800 that you mentioned earlier.
I put a long stop order on the CAD/USD Daily at close last night - looks like it could be good!
)
Anyways, I am still not sure of how to look at those. I don’t think I have the time to run more than one strat. And I would like to stick to what I have learned a bit with NF, cause it seems to me I am getting some grip of it 
Thankfully, I don’t have the time for this, like physically 
- I learnt my lesson with that one about staying with the trend, really should have entered long at the same place as you - always another trade! Though I will be watching to get in on a re-trace if there is a pullback.