I wouldn’t want to put you off a trade and it does look likely to go our way but it’s stopped being nice clean price action you could enter a trade with confidence on.
We’ll see how it goes. Usdchf has indeed started going up but usdjpy and all the other yen pairs have been a bit up and down over the last few days. This kind of thing happens. No big deal.
RD
Chf/jpy clicked out for a loss. -150 pips. Frustrating but still only one trade, on to the next one.
The volatility in the yen pairs due to oil going up $3 a barrel today. That’s a relatively big move for oil in one day. Cad pairs reacting in line too.
Usdcad is looking good for a potential trade next week. I’ve attached 2 charts, the first is the daily zoomed right out. See how price has reacted several times to the 1.08-1.075 area. The secdond one is the daily a bit closer, notice the nice clean downtrend reaching a significant area. I’ll be watching this one very closely.
Eur cad looking similar but not at such a good area and I’d prefer to trade the major out of choice.
So would it make sense to go short or long?
Hi RD, I am looking on this pair as well, and it seems that my S+R lines are similar to yours, which is a great sign for me 
I must say that something is missing for me to enter a trade now. You can see in my chart that the white areas are S+R zones. Personally I do not think that trading INTO any S+R zone is a good idea cause then you will be caught in a sideways market, right?
The regular brown background in my chart is a free space area when the price moved a bit more free in the past. I think that a good trade will be INTO that area when the price is bouncing from the S+R zone into that area.
So I am considering going long or short depending on what side of the S+R zone the price will bounce to.
If there will be a reversal I will want to see a nice bullish pin bar or a DBLHC or a bullish outside bar. A inside bar before will be also good. To conclude, any bullish bar pattern.
If the price will keep dropping nicely I will enter short after a major breakout.
What do you think?
Ben
I’ll wait until the market tells me which way it wants me to trade.
Only a few things could happen here, it’ll either form a very clear candlestick pattern (reversal OR continuation) or it will blur itself, start ranging and give conflicting signals.
If I get clear price action telling me which way it’s going to go I’ll take a trade.
Good call. You’re on the right track but if you are going to trade zones rather than just lines you need to bear in mind a few things.
Take a look at the top of the white area we’re at now. That on it’s own doesn’t really act as any s/r. The zone is there to encapsulate visually the area near to the major s/r line that you want to trade. I don’t use zones as it makes my chart too messy but I do know that my lines are not always going to hold exactly and that any very clear price action within 50 or so pips either way of the s/r line would still be valid. So, your zone is visual on the chart, mine is in my head. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because it’s a line on your chart it must be s/r. I would say the top of the white zone is the first line at which you would want to look for a pattern but in all probabilities it will carry on down a bit further before it tells you what it’s about to do.
You are right that you want to trade when it shows signs of moving OUT of the zone but it should be the end of the daily candle that gives you your trigger and not the break of the zone. Meaning also that even if that candle is still inside your zone it’s still a valid trade.
RD
Thanks for mentioning those points to me
Ben
Why do many people fail as salespeople? Fear of rejection.
It is a well known fact among successful salesmen and women that in order to sell one unit of whatever you are selling you need to pitch to a certain number of people. You can think of it as a strike rate, hit rate or yes rate, whichever you like. Different salespeople will have different strike rates for different products.
Lets say Bob is a successful salesman selling widgets. He knows that he has a 2% strike rate on widgets. This means that for every 100 people he pitches to he will sell 2 widgets and earn his commision for the week.
Lets also say that Rich is another salesman who isn’t as successful as Bob. Rich sees Bob making his 2 sales and earning his commision but he never can quite hit the same stride as Bob.
The difference between these two salesmen is that Bob knows that as long as he approaches and pitches to 100 people a week he will earn his commision every week. Bob doesn’t care about rejection, in fact he welcomes it. He doesn’t know in what order his sales are going to come from those 100 people so he just keeps plugging away being fully motivated and happy in his work. He learns to welcome rejection because a quick ‘no’ means he’s not wasting time trying to sell some guy who isn’t interested in widgets no matter what he says.
Rich doesn’t have the same goal, he just sees widgets he has to sell and every time he tries to sell one he gets a knock back. This leaves him nervous and feeling negative which shows through when he pitches to the next prospect and so again he fails to sell. It’s a never ending vicious circle.
If only Rich could see what Bob sees and stay positive, motivated and happy even when he’s collecting a bunch of 'no’s. Bob loves 'no’s because a ‘no’ is another tick on his 100 prospect list for the week, one more prospect nearer to his next ‘yes’.
What has this got to do with trading?
Well… Every system you use from wherever you get it from has a strike rate, a percentage chance of winning or losing. If you had a system with a 2% strike rate, meaning that for every 100 trades you only had to win 2 to make a profit, could you trade it? Imagine how you’d feel psychologically after 98 losses before your 2 wins came in.
In reality most systems have a strike rate of between 30 and 70% but the most important point is that this strike rate will only ever apply if you stick to the rules exactly. If you deviate from the rules you are no longer trading that system, you are trading that system combined with playing it by ear.
The other important aspect is the risk to reward ratio. A system with a risk reward of 1:1, meaning you are risking x pips to win the same value x pips, needs a strike rate of over 50% but only a fraction over. Remember that a roulette wheel gives the casino only a fraction over a 50% edge on any one bet but in the long term the edge makes them money.
Trading is no different, it’s a numbers game. Find a system that gives you a good risk to reward and a good % strike rate and have the dedication to stick to the system and you will make money, it’s as simple as that.
A fairly quiet week last week, lots of volatility on the yen pairs but not no clear trading signals.
Usdcad and eurcad both looking very interesting. Audusd could be interesting from the 0.80 level later on in the week.
Audcad has formed an interesting candle on Friday but has possibly moved a bit too much for me to trade given the next s/r level is not too far above, one to watch rather than trade.
Cadchf interesting at 0.99 but needs another day to show the way.
I’m interested in taking only one of these trades though, it’s not a coincidence that the cad is mentioned in most of the pairs worth trading. It would pay to find the best currency to short it against and leave the rest or it’s just double exposure to cad.
Let’s hope I can get a good trade in this week anyway so I can show you I actually know what I’m doing 
RD
A trade I opened last night… Woke up 40 pips up, nice. Fairly clear price action at a significant level.
Nice move up during the day retraced in the evening. Moved stop loss to break even.
No other trades catch my attention tonight.
Hi RD.
Quite a stupid question…what is “break even”?
Break even is the point where, if stopped out, you didn’t lose or gain anything.
Basically it’s the entry price of the trade give or take a few pips due to the spread cost.
E.g.
Enter at 1.2500 with a 2 pip spread. Price moves in your favor so you want to make the trade risk free - you therefor move the SL to Break even, which in this case might be 1.2502
Hope that helps
Hi o990l6mh,
All clear to me now. Thaks
Ben
Couldn’t have said it better myself
Just woke up to find it stopped out though, oh well, that’s trading, on to the next trade.
An interesting day, no trades to take and audcad stopped out at break even. A little disapointing but no major shakes, got to keep going. Sooner or later I’m going to hit a nice big trade and the interest level in this thread might increase a little
It’s very silent in this thread. What do you think about upcoming week Roberto? Are there any trading opportunities?
Sorry, been away on holiday
I’m short GbpUsd at the moment. Going to hold on for a big move south.
Not much else is catching my attention at the moment.
