Along with the passing of Octopus Paul, the Aussie bulls mourned for the pips that they lost in yesterday’s trading. AUD/USD ended Tuesday 60 pips lower at .9844, erasing the gain it posted on Monday.
The lack of economic hollers from Australia left the Aussie at the mercy of the market’s sentiment. Too bad for it, pips were on the dollar’s fate yesterday thanks to better-than-expected reports.
Ah, and it looks like the cards aren’t in the com-doll’s favor today either. Earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI for September was lower at 0.7% than the predicted 0.8% increase. Hopes were high that the actual figure would beat the forecast given the stellar figure that the PPI report posted for the same month. But no…
Don’t scrap the possibility of a one last rate hike before the year ends just yet though. Because despite the actual figure falling short of expectations, the inflation reading for September was still higher than the one for August. Who knows, that may be enough for the RBA to give another rate hike shoutout.
We don’t have anything left on tap for the Aussie today so make sure you get a feel of the market’s mood before you bet your pips on it, aight?
AUD/USD sank down under yesterday as the U.S. dollar flexed its currency muscles, pushing the pair down to a low of .9669. AUD/JPY had a rough day too after it broke below consolidation near 80.00 and slid to the 79.00 area.
Weaker than expected Australian CPI, combined with speculations of a strong U.S. GDP reading for the third quarter, weighed on AUD/USD yesterday. As I mentioned in my earlier post, the not-so-stellar inflation figures crushed hopes for another RBA rate hike before the end of the year.
Australia won’t be releasing any high-impact reports today, which means that yesterday’s bearish sentiment for the Aussie could carry on. Still, keep an eye out for any changes in risk sentiment since this could give AUD/USD a chance to recover.
After finding support at last week’s low, the Aussie rode a wave of risk appetite to keep its head above water versus the dollar. AUD/USD finished yesterday up 74 pips from its opening price at .9714, to finish the day at .9788.
No biggies coming out from our mates from the Land Down Under, so I expect Aussie trading to be based off of risk appetite. With the U.S. dollar taking some hits yesterday, let’s see whether risk appetite can remain high to finish off the week.
Whew! That was close! The Aussie managed to stage another win against the dollar last Friday despite the not-so-stellar economic data from the Land Down Under. AUD/USD dropped 108 pips from its open price at .9679 before ending the week at .9797.
Are the traders getting jumpy on Australia’s figures? Although the HIA home sales data clocked in at 0.6% after declining by 2.6% last August, the report on private sector lending remained weak at 0.1%. This highlighted the pressure of having high interest rates, and made the traders cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision this week.
Will the Aussie continue to trade on the edge this week? Reports released over the weekend showed improvement, with the AIG manufacturing index coming in at 49.4 from its 47.3 figure last September. The MI inflation gauge also put on a happy face when it improved by 0.3% from September’s 0.1% growth.
But will the good times roll for the rest of the week? The quarterly house price index released a few coffee cups ago already revealed a weak 0.1% growth, which might be in line with market expectations, but is a lot cooler than the previous quarter’s 3.1% rise.
I guess we’ll know more about the Australian economy when the annualized commodity prices report is released today at 5:30 am GMT.
Then we’ll see the RBA take the spotlight tomorrow at 3:30 am GMT when its interest rate decision is announced. Market geeks expect the interest rates to remain at 4.50%, but any sign of dovishness from the RBA could throw off some of the Aussie bulls.
We’ll also see the AIG services indextomorrow at 10:30 pm GMT, followed by the building approvals report on Wednesday at 12:30 am GMT. Then on Thursday we’ll get hold of the retail sales and trade balance reports at 12:30 am GMT. Retail sales is expected to pick up by 0.5% in September, while the trade balance is estimated to narrow down to 2.13 billion AUD from 2.35 billion AUD last August.
Last, we’ll hear the RBA’s monetary policy statement on Friday at 12:30 am GMT. Will the RBA address the hassle caused by its high interest rates?
Keep close tabs on these reports!
The Aussie gained on the dollar for the third day in a row yesterday despite the worse-than-expected reports were released from the Land Down Under. AUD/USD dropped to an intraday low of .9816 before ending the day with a 17-pip gain at .9871.
Aside from the disappointing house prices, Australia’s commodity prices report also limited the Aussie’s gains when it only fell by 1.1% in October after declining by 0.9% in September. The drop in prices was credited to the weakening of estimated export prices of iron ore and coal.
Will the Aussie go for gold today? The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to hog the spotlight at 3:30 am GMT today as it releases its interest rate decision. Market junkies say that the rates will remain at 4.50%, but keep your eyes peeled for any surprises!
Also look out for the AIG services index report out at 10:30 pm GMT. The data printed at 45.6 last September, but a higher figure for October might keep the Aussie’s bulls energized!
Kaboom! The Reserve Bank of Australia dropped another surprise bomb on the markets yesterday when it unexpectedly increased its interest rates. This rocketed AUD/USD to an intraday high of 1.0024, a high not seen since the Aussie dollar was floated in 1983. Heck, that was back when Mark Hamill was struttin’ his stuff as Luke Skywalker in Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi!
As Forex Gump mentioned in his latest blog, the RBA hiked rates to prepare for more inflationary pressures. You see, even with a strong currency and last quarter’s weaker-than-expected CPI reading, the RBA believes that there will be enough growth in public spending, private lending, and export demand in the near future to merit another interest rate hike.
Of course, it didn’t hurt the Aussie that the AIG services index for October also surpassed its 45.6 September figure by printing at 50.7. This supported the RBA’s declarations of robust economic growth, and attracted more currency bulls to the Aussie despite its record-high figures.
The building approvals report released a few School of Pipsology pageviews ago is the only report scheduled for today. The data dropped by 6.6% in September, which was a lot lower than the estimated 0.3% rise. Will this affect Aussie trading today?
Good luck in your trades today, kiddos!
Surf’s up for the Aussie! After getting wiped out at parity a couple of times during yesterday’s trading, the com-doll wowed the market when it pulled off a hang ten by ending the day at 1.0062 against the dollar. In case you don’t know, that’s a new high mates!
As you probably heard by now, the Federal Reserve launched QE2 and stoked traders into bailing out on the dollar. Lucky for the Aussie, the news weakened its counterpart enough to offset the negative vibes that might have been brought about by the 6.9% decline in building approvals in September that disappointed the 0.3% growth that the market was eyeing.
The AIG services index for October might have also helped the Aussie rip up the charts when it tapped its 5-month high at 50.7, indicating that the service industry is doing A-okay!
But wait, uh-oh… Today’s roster of economic reports suggests that the fun might already be over for the com-doll.
Earlier, we saw that retail sales in September fell short of the 0.5% forecast when it only printed at 0.3%. Making things even worse is the trade balance report which showed that exports outpaced imports only by a measly 1.76 billion AUD. The market had been anticipating for a trade surplus amounting to 2 billion AUD, just a tad lower than the 2.35 billion AUD that we saw in August. Yikes!
We don’t have anything on tap left for the Aussie today, but we do have a few top-tier reports for its counterparts. Make sure you tune in to those events before you bet your pips, aight? Later dudes!
There’s no stopping this steamroller! Despite printing worse-than-expected economic data, the Aussie managed gain against its major counterparts for another day yesterday. AUD/USD rose by a whopping 87 pips at 1.0149, while AUD/JPY flew by 36 pips at 81.94.
Australia’s retail sales only grew by 0.3% in September when analysts already pegged the figure for a 0.5% rise. The trade balance report could have also dampened the demand for the Aussie after it narrowed down to 1.76 billion AUD after printing 2.45 billion AUD last August.
Good thing the AIG construction index went against the current and clocked in at 44.00 following its 40.8 figure in September.
And this just in! The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary statement released a few coffee cups ago revealed the RBA belief that strong economic growth will continue next year, and that the Aussie’s rise to parity will help the RBA fight inflation. Hmm, will we soon see more Aussie bulls party in the forex streets?
No other data is scheduled for release today, but keep close tabs on any reports that might influence comdoll trading!
Whew, that was a close one! The Aussie managed to inch higher against the greenback last Friday on the bullish report from the Land Down Underdespite an upside surprise in the U.S. non-farm employment report. AUD/USD enjoyed all of its 3-pip gain at 1.0152 after hitting an intraday low of 1.0085.
Last Friday the Reserve Bank of Australia released its monetary policy statement, which revealed its forecast of strong economic growth for next year on robust trade and mining demand. Meanwhile, it also expects inflation to cool down in the near future as the Aussie’s gains on the dollar tempers the rising prices. This tempted the currency bulls out of their siesta, and pushed the Aussie higher in the pip charts.
Will the reports this week change the tune for the Aussie? The ANZ job advertisements report released a few dumb bell reps ago revealed a 0.6% increase in job advertisements and an upward revision of last September’s figure from 0.7% to 1.1%.
Tomorrow we’ll see if the businesses and consumers share the RBA’s optimism. The NAB business confidence will be released at 12:30 am GMT, while the Westpac consumer sentiment report will follow at 11:30 pm GMT.
Then on Wednesday the monthly home loans report at 12:30 am GMT will get some attention, especially if it prints higher than the expected 1.1% increase.
Thursday will be a big day in Australia as the unemployment rate is published at 12:30 am GMT. Market geeks are expecting the rate to go down to 5.0% from its 5.1% figure in September, but a lower number could add to the bullishness and energize the Aussie bulls enough for another round of Aussie-buying.
Good luck in catching those pips!
Consolidation was the name of the game for AUD/USD yesterday as it moved between the 1.0150 area and 1.0080. The jobs advertisement report from Australia came out strong but this wasn’t enough to bust AUD/USD out of its range.
Today, be on the lookout for the release of Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index. This report could show that consumer sentiment improved yet again in November, after seeing a 3.3% rise in October. Another improvement in consumer confidence could be bullish for the Aussie because a better financial and economic outlook usually translates to more spending. More spending then leads to increased economic activity, which is good for the Australian dollar. Will this be enough to push AUD/USD out of its range? Stay tuned at 11:30 pm GMT!
At first, it seemed like the Aussie was in for another winning streak against the Greenback as AUD/USD kept its head above the 1.0080 support. However, as the U.S. session rolled along, the Aussie’s rally came to an end as it plummeted below the support level.
Weak sentiment figures from Australia, combined with the surge in risk aversion, caused the Aussie to give back some of its recent gains to the U.S. dollar. The NAB business confidence report revealed that business confidence fell from 10 to 8 in October. Later on, the Westpac consumer sentiment report printed a 5.3% decline for this month, erasing the 3.3% improvement seen in October. Most of the consumers in the survey commented that they expected the recent rate hike to result in a slowdown in economic activity in the near term.
Today, the Aussie was able to enjoy a bit of relief as Australia’s home loans report came in better than expected. The report showed a 1.3% increase, a couple of notches higher than the 1.1% estimate. Also, China’s trade balance came out strong, which means that demand for Australia’s raw materials could also be expected to stay resilient.
No other reports are due from Australia today, but make sure you stay tuned for any news that could affect market sentiment.
Whew! The Aussie got a break from its losses against the greenback early this week when Australia popped up a better-than-expected home loans report. AUD/USD dropped to an intraday low of .9975 before ending the day 24 pips higher at 1.0057.
Yesterday the home loans data from Australia showed a 1.3% increase in September, which was an improvement from its 1.1% rise in August. This signaled that houses are still in demand, and energized the Aussie bulls into pushing the currency higher against its pip rivals.
But what’s this?! Economic reports published a few School of Pipsology pageviews ago showed less-than-stellar employment figures. While an additional 29,700 jobseekers were added to the workforce in October, Australia’s unemployment rate also shot up to 5.4%. Yikes! Are we seeing the beginning of a weakening labor growth in the Land Down Under?
Of course, it also might hurt the Aussie that the Melbourne Institute inflation expectation only clocked in at 3.1%. This was cooler than September’s 3.8% figure, and might attract the currency bears into thinking that economic growth in the short run might not be as sleek as the Reserve Bank of Australia projected.
No other report is scheduled to hit the markets today, but watch your trades closely for any drama! I hear that the big G20 meeting is causing a lot of ruckus in the pip charts lately. Stay sharp!
Risk appetite, where have you gone?! Waning risk appetite once again took its toll on the Aussie and the rest of the comdolls. AUD/USD slid 78 pips to finish below parity at .9984 while AUD/JPY ended 46 pips lower at 82.37.
Price action on the charts suggests that investors still haven’t gotten over Ireland’s debt woes. I guess this explains why many have sold off “riskier” assets such as the Aussie for the safe haven currencies.
As for economic data, there was no shortage in Australia. The MI inflation expectations report recorded a softer figure of 3.1%, down from 3.8% in September. Unfortunately, if this downtrend continues, it could mean that it may be a while before we see another rate hike from the RBA.
The series of rate hikes the central bank implemented throughout 2010 is already affecting consumer confidence. Confidence has been plummeting and spending may follow suit, which makes the case for a delayed rate hike even stronger.
Employment data was also released yesterday, but unfortunately, it wasn’t too good. Employment rose by 29,700, instead of just 20,000 as forecasted. However, this came hand in hand with a surprise spike in the unemployment rate from 5.1% to 5.4%.
There’s a positive side and a negative side to these figures. On one hand, the increase in the unemployment rate was caused by a rise in participation. With many jumping back into the workforce, fears of labor shortage are beginning to subside. But on the downside, the quality of jobs that were added wasn’t top notch. October saw a decline in full-time employment while part-time employment rose.
With no reports scheduled for release in Australia today, it would probably be best to monitor risk sentiment since it seems to be the driving force in the markets lately.
Down goes the Aussie for another 76 pips against the Greenback! Continued risk aversion, together with commodity weakness, delivered heavy blows to the Aussie. At the end of the day, AUD/USD finished well below parity at .9867 while AUD/JPY slid down over 100 pips down to 81.34.
Since Australia didn’t release any reports last Friday, there was little reason for the Aussie bulls to stage a rally. Concerns in the euro zone over Ireland’s debt problems were still keeping risk appetite at bay, to the dismay of the bulls. To make matters worse, gold, which is one of Australia’s biggest exports, experienced a massive drop in prices.
The report to watch this week is the release of Australia’s latest monetary policy meeting minutes. If you remember, we were recently surprised with a 0.25% rate hike which pushed the Aussie to parity. When the minutes of that meeting come out tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT, we’ll get a better look at what exactly was discussed. Heck, we might even get valuable insight on the possibility of future rate hikes!
On the same day, the Melbourne Institute will publish its leading index, which uses 9 indicators to try to predict the future direction of the economy. Will we see an improvement from August’s 0.1% decline? Find out at 11:30 pm GMT!
Also noteworthy is the wage price index report which will be available Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT. The report, which only comes out quarterly, is predicted to post a 1.1% rise in wage prices in Q3, 0.3% higher than the previous quarter. Should we see a stronger-than-expected increase, it could highlight the solidity of Australia’s labor market and send the Aussie skyward again.
Sorry mates, not today either. The Aussie lost to the greenback for the third day in a row yesterday when not-so-awesome economic reports from Australia jumbled with a few positive reports in the U.S. AUD/USD fell by 39 pips at .9838 after peaking at its intraday high of .9921.
The new vehicle sales report from Australia printed a 0.6% in October, a drop from September’s 1.0% increase. The data supported concerns on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate hike, and motivated the currency bears to push the Aussie lower in the pip charts.
And this just in! The RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes released hot off the press showed the RBA’s confidence at the recent interest rate hike, calling it “prudent” in light of its expected rise in inflation and mining investment. Now that’s positive thinking!
Only the Melbourne Institute leading index is scheduled for release today at 11:30 pm GMT. A figure higher than August’s 0.1% slip might provide the Aussie some relief, but keep close tabs on the reports for any surprises!
And the Aussie is down for the count! Yesterday marked its fourth consecutive slide against the USD as risk aversion took its toll on the comdolls. From its opening price of .9838, AUD/USD fell to .9769, while AUD/JPY slipped 46 pips to finish at 81.38.
The only noteworthy event in Australia was the release of the monetary policy meeting minutes. As you may remember, the meeting resulted in an unexpected 0.25% rate hike. The minutes clarified that the rate hike was made to combat inflation brought about by strong job growth, a booming mining industry, and growing exports.
The minutes also helped shed light on the possibility of future rate hikes. It showed that the RBA considered both sides of the coin and is also worried about a potential domestic economic slowdown. With the unemployment rate jumping from 5.1% to 5.4% in October, and the possibility of a Chinese growth slowdown on the horizon, the RBA has even more reason to postpone future rate hikes.
Earlier today, just as expected, the quarterly wage price index reported a 1.1% increase in wages, up from the previous quarter’s 0.8% increase. As labor costs are often passed on to consumers, an increase in wages usually translates to stronger inflation, which was probably a big consideration in the RBA’s decision to increase rates last month.
Nothing more to see from Australia today! For now, you ought to monitor risk sentiment because if it continues to turn sour, it will probably result in more losses for the Aussie.
Choppy is the best way to describe price action for the Aussie yesterday! Though it was practically unchanged versus the Greenback, you could say it was a “g’day” to be an Aussie bull. AUD/USD modestly recorded its first rise in five days, closing at .9780 after opening at .9769. Likewise, AUD/JPY climbed 11 pips to finish at 81.49.
As for yesterday’s wage price index report, the third quarter came in line with expectations, posting a 1.1% increase in wages following the 0.8% uptick in the second quarter.
Australia has been concerned over the state of its labor market, believing that the lack of spare capacity may translate to inflationary pressures. The latest wage price index seems to confirm these fears as it translates to an annualized increase in wages of 3.5%, up from 3.0%. As you know, businesses tend to pass on additional costs, such as wages, to consumers, resulting in inflation. I’m inclined to think this is probably one of the reasons why the RBA decided to hike rates last month.
Today, action from Australia will be limited to a speech from RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battelino at 5:05 am GMT. Since he’s a key central bank figure, it’s important to tune in to hear what he has to say because any extreme comments from him could move the Aussie.
Up, up, and away! The Aussie kept soaring higher against the Greenback and the Japanese yen yesterday. Because of that, AUD/USD closed at .9882, more than a hundred pips higher than its open price wihle AUD/JPY reached a high of 82.79.
Australia didn’t release any economic reports yet the Aussie bulls still surged yesterday when RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino hinted that the central bank could raise rates yet again. He mentioned that inflationary pressures continue to rise while economic growth picks up. He also pointed out that strong demand for Australian products has prompted some companies to increase hiring and investment.
No economic reports are due from Australia this Friday, but do stay tuned for any shifts in risk sentiment which could affect the Aussie’s movement. If risk appetite keeps up, AUD/USD could aim for parity once more, so watch out!
Is the Aussie aiming for parity with the Greenback again? Well, it sure looks like it since AUD/USD staged a strong rally towards the end of last week and gapped higher over the weekend!
This week might be a light one for the Aussie since Australia is set to release just a couple of economic reports. On Wednesday, the Land Down Under will report the construction work done for the third quarter. After seeing a 3.5% leap in the second quarter, construction work is expected to post a slightly slower 2.1% rise for the third quarter. Still, a positive figure could contribute to the nation’s GDP and a higher than expected reading will probably be bullish for the Aussie.
Then, on Thursday, the private capital expenditure report is due. This could print a 3.3% increase for the third quarter, erasing part of the 4.0% drop in the previous period. Again, another stronger than expected figure could push the Aussie higher, probably closer to parity with the Greenback.
Of course, let’s not forget the top-tier reports due from the U.S. this week since those could have a huge impact on risk sentiment. Stay on your toes!
Surprise, surprise! Unlike its comdoll brothers, the Aussie held its ground against the USD amidst the bout of risk aversion that swept the markets. AUD/USD was practically unchanged at the end of the day, finishing just 4 pips higher at .9889.
Even though risk sentiment turned sour yesterday, the Aussie was able to counter the pull of gravity as it received a helping hand from gold prices, which rose about 1% yesterday.
If you’re itching to trade news from Australia, you’ll have to stay up late for the CB leading index. The report is due at 11:00 pm GMT and recently printed a reading of 0.2% for the month of August. Since it takes into consideration 7 economic indicators, it gives a pretty well-rounded view of the economy. As such, a higher figure for October may provide additional support for the Aussie.