Up, up, and away! The Aussie kept soaring higher against the Greenback and the Japanese yen yesterday. Because of that, AUD/USD closed at .9882, more than a hundred pips higher than its open price wihle AUD/JPY reached a high of 82.79.
Australia didn’t release any economic reports yet the Aussie bulls still surged yesterday when RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino hinted that the central bank could raise rates yet again. He mentioned that inflationary pressures continue to rise while economic growth picks up. He also pointed out that strong demand for Australian products has prompted some companies to increase hiring and investment.
No economic reports are due from Australia this Friday, but do stay tuned for any shifts in risk sentiment which could affect the Aussie’s movement. If risk appetite keeps up, AUD/USD could aim for parity once more, so watch out!
Is the Aussie aiming for parity with the Greenback again? Well, it sure looks like it since AUD/USD staged a strong rally towards the end of last week and gapped higher over the weekend!
This week might be a light one for the Aussie since Australia is set to release just a couple of economic reports. On Wednesday, the Land Down Under will report the construction work done for the third quarter. After seeing a 3.5% leap in the second quarter, construction work is expected to post a slightly slower 2.1% rise for the third quarter. Still, a positive figure could contribute to the nation’s GDP and a higher than expected reading will probably be bullish for the Aussie.
Then, on Thursday, the private capital expenditure report is due. This could print a 3.3% increase for the third quarter, erasing part of the 4.0% drop in the previous period. Again, another stronger than expected figure could push the Aussie higher, probably closer to parity with the Greenback.
Of course, let’s not forget the top-tier reports due from the U.S. this week since those could have a huge impact on risk sentiment. Stay on your toes!
Surprise, surprise! Unlike its comdoll brothers, the Aussie held its ground against the USD amidst the bout of risk aversion that swept the markets. AUD/USD was practically unchanged at the end of the day, finishing just 4 pips higher at .9889.
Even though risk sentiment turned sour yesterday, the Aussie was able to counter the pull of gravity as it received a helping hand from gold prices, which rose about 1% yesterday.
If you’re itching to trade news from Australia, you’ll have to stay up late for the CB leading index. The report is due at 11:00 pm GMT and recently printed a reading of 0.2% for the month of August. Since it takes into consideration 7 economic indicators, it gives a pretty well-rounded view of the economy. As such, a higher figure for October may provide additional support for the Aussie.
Being a high-yielding currency, it wasn’t so shocking to see the Aussie get wiped out amid risk aversion. AUD/USD opened at what would be its intraday high at .9890 and surfed to its rock-bottom at .9709 before finishing the day at .9724.
And it looks like the Aussie will have a hard time paring its loss given the the disappointing report we saw earlier today. Yikes! The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that construction work done declined by 2.1% in the third quarter and missed the forecast for a modest 2.3% uptick to follow the 3.5% reading for the second quarter.
But as I always say, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings. If we see an improvement in [market sentiment](http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-market-sentiment.html), we may just see the [com-doll](http://www.babypips.com/school/as-gold-as-it-gets.html) rally. I wouldn’t hold my breath for that though.
After opening at .9724, AUD/USD paddled its way to a closing price of.9814 just ridin’ the risk appetite wave. Gnarly dudes!
Threats of a debt contagion in Europe and the clash between North and South Korea limited the appetite for risk, but there was enough good vibes for the Aussie to hustle despite disappointing economic data.
It was reported yesterday that the construction sector contracted in September. The value of implemented construction projects declined by 2.1% and missed the 2.3% growth forecast that the market was anticipating.
The [com-doll](http://www.babypips.com/school/as-gold-as-it-gets.html) might be able to get some support on the charts with today’s report though. Private capital expenditure data showed that businesses increased their investments in new capital by 6.2% in the third quarter, which was almost double what analysts estimated! Hollah!
But don’t be so sure of the Aussie just yet. Remember that risk aversion could pop its ugly head back in the markets again and send it into the bear lair. So be careful!
Same story, different currency! Despite the release of a meaty economic report, the Aussie was practically dead on the charts yesterday. It closed hardly unchanged against both the yen and the Greenback.
Thanks to its booming mining industry, Australia’s capital expenditures doubled the expected growth and printed a 6.2% rise in Q3. The good vibes were so strong, the Bureau of Statistics decided to revise the previous quarter’s 4.0% decline to just 3.2%.
But this figure came with a bit of bad news as investment in new plant and equipment, which contributes to GDP, dropped 1.1%. This has caused many to worry that the RBA may have acted too soon with their rate hikes.
For the coming months, GDP is expected to stay on trend, so perhaps we won’t see another rate hike until 2011. RBA Governor Stevens certainly sounds like he agrees with this idea. In his speech yesterday, he said that monetary policy is appropriate for the moment, and that inflation should stay near current levels for the year to come.
Nothing on tap from the Land Down Under today. But be sure to buckle your seatbelts because the day following Thanksgiving has historically been a volatile one. Be safe out there, kids!
Just like Alicia Keys and Lady Gaga ditching Twitter, traders also dumped the Aussie in exchange for the dollar. It was all downhill for AUD/USD as soon as it opened Friday’s trading at .9813. At the end of the day, the pair was at its 7-week low at .9643.
In addition to risk aversion weighing down the Aussie, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens talked about rate hikes not being on the central bank’s schedule until around mid-2011. According to him, although the dudes at the RBA still have their eyes on inflation, they think that it might be best to take into consideration the negative effects of Europe’s austerity measures to demand for Australian exports.
Earlier today, AUD/USD went under selling pressure when the third quarter Company Operating Profit report showed a 1.5% decline after increasing by 17.0% in the second quarter, and missing the 4.3% growth forecast. Ouch! That’s gotta hurt the bulls.
Keep an ear out for what RBA Governor Stevens speech later at 7:30 am as his remarks may cause some volatility on the currency. Good luck y’all!
Along with its com-doll homies, the Aussie fell victim to the dollar’s strength as risk aversion kicked into high gear. AUD/USD was on a rally before it skidded to a stop at the .9700 handle and tumbled to a low of .9567. The pair then inched a bit to close at .9632 with a 56-pip loss for the Aussie.
So what fueled the Aussie’s trip into the bear lair?
If you answered trouble in Korea and Ireland’s bailout, then give yourself a pat on the back. But yesterday’s disappointing Company Operating Profit report for the second quarter might have also made things worse for the com-doll. After profits increased by 17.0% during the second quarter, the market had eyed for a modest increase of 4.0%. But the actual reading printed a 1.5% decline! Tsk, tsk…
And it looks like the disappointment didn’t end there. Earlier today, we saw mixed economic reports with building approvals for October coming in at 9.3%, better than the expected 1.4%, while current account and private sector credit fell short of expectations.
Australia printed an account deficit of 7.8 billion AUD in the third quarter, bigger than the 6.6 billion AUD deficit that the market had braced for. On the other hand, the value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses disappointed for the fourth consecutive month when the data for November printed a puny 0.1% uptick. Analysts had eyed for a 0.2% increase.
See if AIG’s performance of manufacturing index for November, due later at 10:30 pm GMT, will be able to provide the Aussie with some support if a figure higher than October’s 49.4 reading is reported.
But note that any possible rally of the Aussie could be limited as investors would probably reduce their risk ahead of the third quarter GDP report due tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT. Remember that the consensus forecast is for a 0.5% growth.
It looks like bad news just keeps piling in for the Aussie! Earlier today, the GDP report revealed that Australia’s economy expanded only 0.2%, which was less than half the initial forecast. Ouch! As a result, AUD/USD is currently trading at .9544, almost 100 pips lower from where it was at 24 hours ago.
The strong Aussie seems to finally have caught up with the economy. Apparently, the main reason why the GDP report missed consensus is because exports fell 2.4% during the second quarter of 2010. That 2.4% decline translated to a 0.6% decline in the country’s GDP.
If it hadn’t been for the 0.6% uptick in household spending, then Australia wouldn’t have grown in the second quarter! Now, now, don’t get too worried… On an annual basis, Australia still grew 2.7%, which is still quite respectable in my book!
For today, keep an eye out for is the retail sales report and the trade balance. Both reports will come out at 12:30 am GMT and will probably have a large effect on the Aussie’s price action. The retail sales report is predicted to show a 0.4% gain while a 2 billion AUD surplus is expected from the trade balance. If the actual results come in below forecast, then we could see the Aussie post losses across the board again.
Awesome Aussie for the rebound! Thanks to increased risk appetite, AUD/USD bounced from a low of .9538 and climbed to a high of .9695. AUD/JPY also enjoyed a nice rally as it rose almost 150 pips from the 80.00 area to a high of 81.45.
Even though Australia’s GDP came in weaker than expected, the Aussie was able to benefit from the improvement in investors’ risk sentiment. It turns out that credit spreads in the euro zone started to ease, showing how lenders are no longer that hesitant to loan money to the debt-troubled nations in the region.
Going back to Australia’s third quarter GDP… The report printed a measly 0.2% reading, which was less than half the expected 0.5% uptick and much slower compared to the 1.1% expansion seen in the second quarter. It’s bad enough that the second quarter reading was downwardly revised from 1.2% to 1.1%! Could it be that the aggressive RBA rate hikes are taking their toll on the Land Down Under? And does this mean that the central bank would refrain from hiking rates another time before the year comes to a close?
Today’s economic reports should provide more insight on the performance of the Australian economy. The retail sales report and the trade balance are due 9:30 am GMT today. Retail sales are expected to be up by 0.3% in October while the trade surplus is expected to expand from 1.76 billion AUD to 2.07 billion AUD during the month. Better than expected figures could provide another boost for the Aussie today so make sure you stay tuned for that!
The Aussie was still able to get its groove on and end the day with a win despite mixed reports. After tumbling to .9630, the com-doll shook its tush to rally up the charts and park 78 pips higher at .9759.
It was reported that exports outpaced imports by 2.62 billion AUD in October and overshot what analysts had predicted which was for a 2.00 billion AUD trade surplus.
Too bad consumers weren’t feelin’ so fly as exporters were. The retail sales report for the same month showed that consumer spending declined by 1.1% and disappointed the 0.4% uptick that the market was anticipating.
Lucky for the com-doll, risk appetite had its back and helped it post its second consecutive win against the dollar.
Word on the street is that the better-than-expected housing report from the U.S. caused the improvement in market sentiment. And so, with nothing on tap for the Aussie today, you may want to be on your toes for the NFP report later as this may affect the market’s mood. Good luck!
Boooing!!! Like the famous kangaroo from the Land Down Under, the Aussie leaped higher against the Greenback last NFP Friday on a surge of anti-dollar sentiment in markets. AUD/USD rose for the third day in a row at .9923, 165 pips higher than its open price.
No economic reports were released from Australia last Friday, but I’m seeing a lot of red flags up ahead! We started the week with the MI inflation gauge clocking in a 0.4% rise in November, as well as a 2.9% increase in the ANZ job advertisements report, which is the seventh consecutive monthly rise for the data. Not a bad way to start the week, eh?
The AIG construction index report at 10:30 pm GMT will also pop up in markets today, while the big RBA interest rate decision will be out tomorrow at 3:30 am GMT. The home loans report for October also will show up on Wednesday at 12:30 am GMT. Lastly, we’ll see Australia’s unemployment rate on Thursday at 12:30 am GMT. Market geeks are expecting the number to go down to 5.2%, but keep your eyes peeled for any shocks!
The Aussie danced to my brotha Nelly’s tune as it reversed the effects of positive economic reports in Australia like it was just a dream. AUD/USD capped the day 10 pips lower after reaching an intraday high of .9927.
Yesterday’s ANZ job advertisements report revealed a 2.9% growth in November, the strongest in nine months. Apparently, the surging demand for iron and ore in China is fueling employment demand in the commodity-related Australian economy. The strong demand for jobs was also one of the reasons why the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its interest rates last month.
Speaking of interest rates, the RBA is scheduled to announce another decision today at 3:30 am GMT! Market junkies are saying that positive economic conditions have already been considered in the last decision, so another interest rate hike is almost impossible.
And why would the RBA need a higher interest rate? With the recent disappointments in Australian data including the AIG’s 42.2 construction index figure yesterday, a rate hike could just choke the economy’s growth!
But be alert for any surprises, will ya? Bombshells from the RBA usually produce huge spikes in the charts!
Drats! The dollar was just too hot to handle for the com-doll homies. After AUD/USD peaked at .9966, the pair went on a downtrend all the way to its closing price of .9841, giving the Aussie a 57-pip loss.
In case you still haven’t heard, the RBA left the official cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. But the currency’s loss had more to do with the dollar’s strength than the central bank’s decision to take a break from hikes.
After all, almost everyone had already seen a pause coming. In fact, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’ less-dovish-than-expected remarks might have even cushioned the Aussie’s tumble! Tune in to Forex Gump’s blog later to find out more about the RBA’s decision.
Hmmm, perhaps positive economic reports will get the Aussie some lovin’ from traders. Earlier today we already saw that the amount of loans granted in October was higher at 1.9% than what the market had anticipated which was a puny 0.1% increase. Up top!
Don’t get too excited just yet. I have a feeling that the Aussie’s gains will be limited until the much-anticipated employment report for November is released tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT.
Hopes are high the Australian labor market will once again wow the market with the consensus hollering for an additional 20,000 jobs during the month, and the unemployment rate eyed at 5.2%, lower than its previous 5.4% reading.
So until then, make sure you gauge market sentiment before you call the shots on your Aussie trades!
The currency from the Land Down Under turned out to be a sinker yesterday when the Aussie lost ground against the Greenback despite the better-than-expected reports from Australia. AUD/USD capped the day with a 45-pip loss after dropping to an intraday low of .9753.
As I mentioned yesterday, Australia’s home loans report surprised the markets with a 1.9% increase, which might have signaled that the Aussies are taking the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rates in stride.
But since no other economic report was scheduled for release, the market’s focus turned to the country’s unemployment numbers. Expectations were low for the data as the markets considered the possible drag of the disappointing PMI numbers that recently popped up.
Surprise, surprise! The employment reports released a few coffee cups ago showed that an additional 54,600 workers found jobs in November, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.2% from its 5.4% figure in October.
Keep close tabs on the Aussie pairs to see if the currency bulls will do their thang on the com-doll!
Score! The Aussie ended the three-day losing streak against the Greenback yesterday when economic reports from the Land Down Under pointed to a stronger economy. AUD/USD closed 48 pips higher at .9885 after reaching intraday high of .9885.
With employment figures like Australia’s, who wouldn’t want to get a piece of the action? As I mentioned yesterday, Australia added an additional 45,600 workers found jobs in November, which brought the unemployment rate down to 5.2%.
What made the data even more of a knockout are the other details of the report. Aside from showing the largest jobs increase in 10 months, the workers’ participation rate also grew by 66.1%. This means that more workers are encouraged to join the labor force. Sweet!
See if the Aussie can keep up the happy tune today even with the lack of economic reports from Australia. Our dishy forex calendar says that China is set to release its trade balance data, so be careful in taking your Aussie trades! With China as Australia’s largest trading partner, the Australian dollar usually reacts strongly to Chinese data.
Boooring! Pick a direction already! With nothing on its economic cupboard, AUD/USD’s price action was as bouncy as a basketball last Friday as it simply moved between Thursday’s highs and lows. At the end of the day, AUD/USD closed at .9828, hardly changed from its opening price of.9843.
It looks like we’ll be seeing another uneventful week for the Aussie as its economic calendar presents very little high profile events. In any case, let’s take a look at what we have for today…
At 12:30 am GMT, expect to see the NAB business confidence survey. The last time the report printed, it showed a reading of 8. The report on Dwelling Starts (that’s just a fancy name for housing starts) will also be released at the same time. Dwelling starts are expected to have fallen by 5% quarter-on-quarter after rising by 0.8%.
While the reports may cause a bit of movement, I don’t think the impact will be significant at all. Historically, these reports tend to be ignored, as traders focus on “more important reports” such as the Fed’s decision on interest rates.
I love you China! Thanks to China’s decision to [B]NOT[/B] raise key interest rates, the Aussie was able to stage an amazing rally against the Greenback yesterday. By the end of the U.S. trading session, AUD/USD was trading at .9949, more than 100 pips higher from its Asian session opening price.
Earlier today, however, the Aussie took some hits and fell a couple of pips due to some weak economic data. The report on dwelling starts showed a fall of 13.5%, more than twice the 5.0% decrease initially expected. Meanwhile, the NAB business confidence survey declined to 6, two points lower than last month’s reading of 8.
For today, focus will turn to the Fed’s interest rate decision at 7:30 pm GMT. The market widely expects the Fed to keep rates at 0.25%, which means attention will turn to the accompanying statement. Any talk of further easing from the Fed could cement the Aussie’s victory over the Greenback for the holidays! Good luck folks!
The Aussie went all ninja yesterday when it sneaked on the Greenback despite the red figures in Australia’s economic reports. AUD/USD soared to an intraday high of 1.0029 before it leveled off with a 36-pip gain at .9985.
Yesterday’s NAB business confidence report printed at 6, a few notches lower than October’s 8 index figure. Housing starts for the third quarter also surprised the markets when it clocked in a 13.2% decline after growing by 2.1% in the second quarter. Is it me, or are the home buyers finally feeling the weight of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s high interest rates?
The Westpac consumer sentiment report was the silver lining in the very dark cloud when it improved by 0.2% after slipping by 5.3% in November.
Good thing it was followed up by November’s improvement in new motor vehicle sales! The data popped up by 0.2% from its 0.5% decline in October. No other reports will show up from Australia today, but keep close tabs on reactions to these reports!
Look out below! Egged on by risk aversion, the Aussie took a sharp dive yesterday. AUD/USD fell 130 pips to land at .9855 while AUD/JPY dropped 55 pips to 83.05.
Even with positive new motor vehicle sales, the Aussie was unable to escape the Aussie-bearish round of risk aversion yesterday. New motor vehicle sales rose 0.2% last month after dropping 0.5% in October. Since cars are durable goods and tend to last quite a while, the rise in sales could be signaling improved consumer confidence. Consumers tend to invest in durable goods in times when they feel secure about their future financial positions.
Earlier today, Australia published the MI inflation expectations report. Unfortunately, it didn’t bear good news. In October, consumers had expected inflation to clock in at around 3.1% over the next 12 months. But according to the latest results, consumers have lowered their expectations and now believe inflation will hang at around 2.8%. Sorry to say this, Aussie bulls, but this decline in inflation expectations gives the RBA another reason to hold back on hiking rates.
Since we don’t have any more reports due today, you should monitor risk sentiment for the rest of the day. The low liquidity that the holiday season brings can often lead to explosive moves, so be sure to stay alert for any sudden changes in sentiment!