I’m a fundamentals type of guy, so my posts usually do not include technical analysis. If you’re looking for some good ol’ chart analysis, I suggest heading over to Big Pippin’s blog!
The unrest in Libya has caused oil prices to skyrocket, which is actually helping the Aussie rally. Meanwhile, the nuclear radiation concerns due to the earthquake-tsunami disaster in Japan seem to be fading now…
Score another one for the Aussie! The Aussie finally managed to rise above parity yesterday thanks to the market’s increased appetite for risk. From its opening price during the Asian session at .9959, AUD/USD rallied furiously and ended the U.S. trading session strongly at 1.0064.
There were no important economic reports released from Australia yesterday and none are scheduled to come out today again, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing any action from the Aussie! As I mentioned on Monday, risk appetite looks like it is here to stay, which means we could see the Aussie and other commodity-based currencies continue to show strength. Keep a close eye on those currencies folks!
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Aha! It looks like someone has been sneaking pips from the dollar! The Aussie ended yesterday’s trading 40 pips higher at 1.0103 despite the lack of economic reports from Australia.
Our economic calendar is still bank for reports from The Land Under today, so it may be best to keep tabs on market sentiment to help you with your Aussie trades. From what I’ve heard, news about improvements in Japan’s nuclear situation might have sparked risk appetite and helped the comdoll rally yesterday.
Traders pursued the Aussie like a bunch of princess-wannabes running after Prince Harry during yesterday’s trading. AUD/USD closed above resistance at 1.0100 and ended the day 29 pips higher at 1.0132.
Once again, the surge in commodity prices provided the comdoll its pip-royalty status on the charts despite the lack of reports from Australia. So make sure you keep tabs on the commodity markets!
Note that the biggest implication of rising commodities is higher inflation. Consequently, speculations about an interest rate hike from the RBA may just be enough for traders to overlook the not-so-impressive second-tier report we saw earlier today. The CB leading index for January printed at 0.1%, lower than the 0.7% uptick we saw in December.
May the pips be with you!
GOOOOOOOOOAL!!! There were no economic reports from Australia yesterday, but the Aussie scored another winning day against the Greenback. Soaring commodity prices supported the comdoll and pushed AUD/USD near its record highs at 1.0229.
Speaking of record highs, gold futures reached an all-time high for the second day in a row as continued concerns in markets pushed investors into buying safe-haven assets. The report gave another reason for the currency bulls to party in the pip streets since commodities make up a huge part of the Australian economy.
No economic reports will be released from the Land Down Under again today, but keep an eye out for any surprises in risk sentiment. The big Economic Summit in the euro region starts today, and any bombshell from the euro zone leaders might send the bulls scurrying!
Woah! It seems like Katy Perry was also talking about the Aussie in her song E.T as the comdoll abducted enough bulls to post a new all-time high at against the dollar! AUD/USD peaked at 1.0295 before ending the day at 1.0261 with a 61-pip gain. Boo yeah!
Without anything on tap from Australia on Friday, market junkies speculate that the Aussie’s move might have been because stops got triggered and traders just lacked interest in the dollar. Of course, it might have also helped that commodity prices continued to rise.
We still don’t have anything for the Aussie on our economic calendar today so keep tabs on the commodity markets! Don’t worry because tomorrow we’ll have the new home sales report from HIA to sink our teeth into. Watch out for a figure higher than the 2.5% uptick we saw in January as this would probably be bullish for the currency.
The Aussie ain’t no Lady Gaga, but it partied on the charts yesterday as if it was its birthday too! Yup! AUD/USD tapped a new all-time high at 1.0315 before ending the day 20 pips higher from its opening price at 1.0255. Boo yeah!
What made the Aussie’s performance even more impressive was that it was able to rally even when the HIA New Home Sales report showed that the number of new homes sold in February increased at a slower pace of 0.6% compared to the 2.5% uptick we saw in January.
Without anything on tap on our economic calendar from Australia today, a few naysayers are worried that perhaps com-doll’s pip-party may already be coming to an end. Yikes! We may have to keep tabs on market sentiment to see if they’re right. Who knows, if we see a round of risk appetite today the Aussie may just post a new high again!
Make way for the king of the pip streets! For the eight day in a row the Aussie sucker-punched its counterparts and even flirted with making new record highs against the Greenback. AUD/USD rebounded from its intraday low of 1.0204 and finished the day with a 39-pip win to 1.0294. Up top, mates!
It seemed that traders shrugged off rumors of an interest rate cut and Australia’s worse-than-expected HIA new home sales report and concentrated instead on the bit of improvement in risk appetite. Heck, the Aussie bulls were energized enough to push AUD/USD to near 1.0300!
Let’s see if the bulls manage to sustain the Aussie fever today and drive AUD/USD above 1.0300 even when there are no economic reports due from the Land Down Under. Keep your eyes peeled for any shifts in risk appetite! Remember that the high-yielding Aussie usually takes a hit if risk sentiment turns sour.
Can you say “highest level in 29 years?!?” Thanks to the expectation that global growth will cause a surge in the demand for commodities, AUD/USD was able to rally strongly and go as high as 1.0338 yesterday. For the month of March, the pair gained 1.3%. Impressive!
Earlier today, AUD/USD surged to new highs once again as Australia’s retail sales reportbeat expectations. According to the report, retail sales climbed 0.5% for February, slightly higher than the 0.4% increase initially expected.
The report on building approvals, on the other hand, was unable to get with the program. It failed to meet consensus and printed a 7.4% decline. The market had expected a 4.2% rise.
No important reports coming out of Australia today so look to data from other regions for AUD/USD’s direction. Good luck trading today folks!
What a day for the Aussie! Despite ending the U.S. trading session barely change against the Greenback, the Aussie was able to mark another new 29-year high. It rose as high as 1.0373 before dropping back down and settling at 1.0329.
The main culprit behind the Aussie’s rise yesterday was positive data. The retail sales report for Australia showed a rise of 0.5%, slightly higher than the 0.4% the market was expecting.
No data coming out of Australia today, but that doesn’t mean you should relax! At 12:30 pm GMT, the U.S. will release the much-anticipated employment report. It’s considered the biggest report in the forex market, so market participants may be inclined to simply sit in the side lines and wait for the results. Expect the Aussie’s price action to be choppy leading up to the release!
Just like the highest-grossing film last weekend, the Aussie HOP-ped to a fresh record high against the Greenback on a surge of risk appetite last Friday. AUD/USD ended its eleventh consecutive daily gain 41 pips higher than its open price at 1.0385. Boo yeah!
Will the Aussie go for 12 today? Australia’s MI inflation gauge released a few coffee cups ago revealed an increase in expectations from 0.2% in February to 0.6% in March. Also, the ANZ job ads announced an hour later showed that job advertisements increased by 1.3% in March from its 1.1% growth in February.
Only the AIG services index at 11:30 pm GMT is scheduled from the Land Down Under today, so stay sharp in your trades! Keep your eyes peeled for any changes in risk sentiment, or any clues on the RBA’s big interest rate decision tomorrow at 4:30 am GMT.
And it stops at 11! After eleven consecutive gains against the Greenback, the Aussie bulls finally took a breather and let the bears take over. As a result, AUD/USD slipped by 35 pips to 1.0363 after peaking at an intraday high of 1.0417.
Were the currency bulls simply tired from all the hustling? All comdolls lost against the scrilla! In fact, Australia’s reports released yesterday actually printed better than expected and should have had a bigger chance at pushing the Aussie higher.
Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge supported an interest rate hike when the estimate increased to a 0.6% growth in March, a bit higher than MI’s 0.2% estimate last February. Then, the ANZ job advertisements report also printed in the green, showing a 1.3% rise in job ads in March and signaling that demand for labor is improving. The data showed a contrast to the AIG services index, which dipped to a reading of 46.5 in March from its 48.7 figure in February. Remember that only a reading of 50.0 and above indicates optimism.
Today is a big day for the Aussie bulls and bears as the big RBA interest rate decision is due at 4:30 am GMT. While the RBA isn’t expected to hike its interest rates in April, market geeks are going to be glued to the tube for any dovish comments that might send the Aussie to chart deeps. After all, the Australian economy is highly dependent on its exports, and a strong Aussie would decrease the competitiveness of its exports.
If you can’t wait to trade Australia’s news though, you can always look out for the trade balance data also coming out today at 1:30 am GMT. Market junkies are expecting the trade surplus to narrow down from 1.88 billion AUD in January to 1.15 billion AUD in February, but a higher number just might wake up the Aussie bulls from their siesta!
To Aussie bears, there ain’t nothing sweeter than disappointing economic data and hawkish words. And yesterday, we got both! It’s no wonder then that AUD/USD trended lower for most of the day, ending 35 pips lower at 1.0328 after tapping an intraday low of 1.0288.
For the first time in almost a year, the Australian trade balance fell to a deficit! Surprise, surprise! Apparently, weak bling-bling exports had a lot to do with the unexpected deficit. Exports fell 2% month-on-month (largely because of a 45% drop in non-monetary gold) while imports rose 5% in February. As a result, Australia’s trade surplus of 1.43 billion AUD disappeared and was replaced by a 0.21 billion AUD deficit.
In other news, the RBA made its rate statement yesterday and decided to hold rates steady. No one was surprised to hear this because it was widely expected by market geeks as consumer spending has been on the down low lately. With the way the RBA downplayed inflation in its announcement, it probably wouldn’t be wise to hold your breath for a rate hike in the coming months… or even in the year!
The bad vibes seem to have carried over to today because even this morning’s home loans report printed in the red. Instead of the forecasted 2.6% decline in home loans, February posted a 5.6% drop! Ouch!
But so far, this hasn’t dampened Aussie bulls’ spirits. The question is whether the Aussie can continue to hold its head above water for the rest of the day. With commodities providing it with a lot of support lately, it would be best to watch this comdoll closely. It can rally (or drop) in the blink of an eye!
What weak data?! Australia’s worse-than-expected economic report was eclipsed by risk appetite in markets and the Chuck Norris-like commodity prices. AUD/USD only dipped to an intraday low of 1.0315 yesterday before it shot up to a fresh record high 117 pips from its open price. Talk about surfing up!
If traders had based their trades on Australia’s home loans report alone, they would’ve dumped the Aussie faster than Happy Pip can spot a sale on handbags! The report showed that home loans fell by 5.6% in February, the second consecutive monthly decline for the data. In addition, the AIG construction index also fell to 39.4 from its 44.6 index figure. Apparently, high interest rates, high commodity prices, and economic uncertainty are weighing on the consumers’ decisions and making it harder for the economy to recover from the flooding in Queensland a few months back.
But what’s this? Reports released a few Angry Bird rounds ago revealed that Australia’s unemployment rate dropped down from 5.0% to 4.9% in March, while 37,800 workers found job on the same month. Will this send the Aussie all the way to chart skies? Watch the AUD/USD closely!
Another record high? yawn. Yesterday the Aussie bulls gained momentum on their shopping spree as better-than-expected economic reports from Australia popped up to encourage more Aussie buying. As a result, AUD/USD hit a fresh record high at 1.0508 before finishing the day with a 15-pip win at 1.0459.
As we saw yesterday, the currency bulls got a kick when Australia’s employment figures clocked in the green. Unemployment rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% in March, with the economy tacking 37,800 more workers finding jobs in the same month. That’s a big improvement considering that a total of 8,600 workers lost job in February. The data not only beat expectations, but also supported the RBA’s positive economic outlook. Hmm, is that an interest rate hike I smell?
No reports will come out from the Land Down Under today, but keep an eye out for any shifts in risk sentiment and a bit of profit-taking! We never know when these Aussie bulls decide to cash in.
Have a relaxing weekend, kids! I know I will!
The Aussie should really teach Charlie Sheen a thing or two about winning because, unlike the Two and a Half Men star who seems to have lost his marbles, the Australian dollar just kept reaching record highs. AUD/USD ended the week 34 pips above the 1.0500 handle while AUD/JPY edged even closer to the 90.00 mark.
Even though Australia didn’t release any economic data last Friday, it seemed that nothing could keep the Aussie from climbing. The currency drew support from investors’ risk-taking and rising commodity prices, particularly that of gold. Heck, gold just breezed through the $1450/ounce level and is approaching the $1500/ounce handle!
Will the Aussie keep winning this week? This depends on Australia’s economic figures, of course!
Tomorrow, Australia is set to release the NAB business confidence figure for March, which could post another monthly gain. The index climbed from 4 to 14 in February and another rise could result in more gains for the Aussie. Make sure you keep an eye out for that report due 2:30 am GMT.
On Wednesday, the Westpac consumer confidence index is due 1:30 am GMT. Consumer confidence dipped by 2.4% in March but if the index bounces back and prints a positive reading for this month, we might just see AUD/USD reach for the 1.0600 handle! On the other hand, another decline could reveal that consumers are still sketchy with their economic outlook, which could force the Aussie to retreat.
Inflation expectations and new motor vehicle sales are due Thursday but these aren’t likely to rock the Aussie as much as the Chinese data set for release on Friday. Recall that the Asian giant has been tightening monetary policy aggressively for the past few months, which means that we should see a significant effect on their economic data. However, if Chinese CPI and GDP still show that their economy could overheat, more rate hikes could be in store and these could be bearish for the Aussie.
Things are goin’ under in the Land Down Under! The Aussie posted its biggest loss against the Greenback in a month as commodities took a spill yesterday. Without support from commodities, AUD/USD retreated from a fresh high of 1.0582 and headed south to post a 68-pip dip for the day at 1.0488.
So far, the Aussie seems content with getting beaten to a pulp by the Greenback. Even though today’s NAB business confidence survey showed a big improvement, it’s still droppin’ like a hot potato!
The index ticked up from -2 to 9 to post in the green for the first time in three months in March, suggesting that business is finally picking up in Australia. After experiencing a flood-induced slowdown, it seems businesses are finally breaking the surface with renewed economic activity! Hooray!
Ain’t nothin’ more to see from Australia today! In the meantime, keep yo’ market sentiment-hats on hand because yesterday’s price action could be the start of a big reversal! If that’s the case, get ready to sell, sell, sell the Aussie!
Is the Aussie about to go down under? AUD/USD dipped to the 1.0400 level yesterday but managed to bounce back and end at 1.0491. AUD/JPY’s performance was much worse, as it opened at 88.76 then closed at 87.58.
The only report on the Aussie’s schedule for today is the Westpac consumer sentiment index. Last month, the reading dropped by 2.4%, signaling that consumers became less confident with their financial and economic outlook. A rebound for this month could be bullish for the Aussie because it would suggest that consumers are more likely to spend in the coming months. Another negative figure, on the other hand, could give the Aussie another day of losses.
Also make sure you check out my U.S. economic roundup since the upcoming U.S. retail sales report could have a huge impact on market sentiment.
Looks like the Aussie found its mojo! After struggling to catch a wave earlier this week, the Aussie finally surfed up the charts yesterday, as AUD/USD gained 53 pips to finish at 1.0506.
According to the Westpac consumer sentiment report, our buddies from the Land Down Under are feeling more confident about the economy. The index came in at 105.3, up 1.2% from the previous month. The report indicated that consumers are more willing to buy household essentials like boomerangs, surfboards, and kangaroos.
Kidding aside, the Australian economy has been doing extremely well the past couple of months. If this continues, the Australian dollar could find itself climbing up the charts.