The Aussie hustled hard towards the latter part of yesterday’s trading against the dollar. AUD/USD rebounded from its intraday low of 1.0567 and closed at 1.0664. Too bad the Aussie’s piptorade wasn’t enough for it to score a win. AUD/USD ended the day 32 pips below its opening price.
Aside from the slump in commodity prices, Australia’s disappointing employment report for April also injured the currency’s chances of bagging pips. It was reported that the number of employed people fell by 22,100 during the month when the market had braced for a modest increase of 17,600 to follow the 43,300 hires we saw in March.
Not surprisingly, many naysayers think that this momentum-breaker for the Australian labor market could be enough reason for the RBA to stop hiking interest rates. Yikes! How’s that for crushing the bulls’ spirit, huh?
On the brighter side of things, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9%.
No economic data on deck from The Land Down Under today, so better be on your toes for what’s happenin’ in the commodity markets. Keep in mind that the Aussie usually mimics gold’s moves on the charts. Peace out!
The Aussie sped up all the way to the 1.0700 handle only to be attacked by bears. From an intraday high of 1.0717, AUD/USD crashed and burned to its closing price of 1.0566 which was 98 pips lower from its opening price. Ouch!
What caused the Aussie to lose control of its pips?
Two words: Risk aversion. Talks of Greek debt restructuring spooked investors once again and sent higher-yielding currencies lower.
With that said, make sure you keep an ear out for developments in the Euro Zone as we don’t have any economic report left on our calendar for the Aussie today. I think I mentioned last week that the region’s finance ministers are meeting today and tomorrow to discuss Greece’s situation.
Earlier it was reported that home loans for March declined by 1.5% and disappointed the market’s 2.3% forecast. Meanwhile, new motor vehicle sales came in at -3.5% following the 3.4% uptick for March. Yikes! Those figures can’t be good for the comdoll. But who knows, maybe we’ll see risk appetite pick up again and boost the currency.
The Greenback took an early lead against the Aussie as home loans data slowed the Australian currency down, but in the end, the Aussie had the last laugh! After hitting an intraday low of 1.0513, AUD/USD rallied to close the day 17 pips higher at 1.0590.
Ain’t nobody borrowing money to buy houses in Australia these days! According to the most recent home loans report, home loans fell 1.5% in March. That makes three straight months of declines! Apparently, analysts were overoptimistic when they forecasted a 2.3% increase after February posted a 4.7% drop. Is this the result of low confidence, or is it because consumers find borrowing rates too high in the Land Down Under?
The RBA shed a bit of light on this in its monetary policy minutes released earlier today. According to the central bank, borrowing is down because of the increase in housing loan interest rates in November. It also added that the Queensland floods might have also played a role in dampening housing credit.
As for growth, it seems like the members of the RBA all agree that the economy will be strong over the coming years. They even expect the unemployment rate to edge even lower! It was also interesting how the RBA noted that CPI will probably remain in the top part of its target band. Hmm… Sunny growth outlook and inflation expectations on the rise? Could this mean we’ll see a rate hike soon?
I’ll let you mull over that since that’s all the Australian data we’ve got for today! If you plan on trading AUD/USD, be sure to check out our economic calendar for other countries’ releases! Risk sentiment can change in the blink of an eye, so we’ve gotta stay alert. Don’t get blindsided by today’s events, folks!
Mission 1.0600 accomplished! After getting rejected at the psychological handle a couple of times yesterday, the Aussie was finally able to hustle enough muscle to break through resistance just before the end of the New York session. AUD/USD ended the day 29 pips higher from its opening price at 1.0619.
The hawkish tone of the RBA minutes must have fueled the commdoll’s rally. Although the bank left interest rates unchanged earlier this month, officials feel that more tightening is needed to fight off inflation. Ooooh, does that mean it’s time to start buying the Aussie again?
Err, I wouldn’t want to be too hasty about that. Take note that the central bank’s statement happened before we saw the labor market lose 22,000 jobs in April which is the largest drop in two years. And not only that! Earlier today we saw that consumer confidence deteriorated in May. Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment report printed a 1.3% decline and erased its 1.2% uptick for April.
Lastly, keep in mind that commodity prices have already weakened since the RBA interest rate decision. With that said, I don’t think our central banking mates may be as excited about raising rates as they were before.
We don’t have anything left on tap from Australia today so make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment. Remember that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite kicks in.
Did you get chopped up trading the Aussie yesterday? I hope not! Due to the lack of high-profile economic reports in Australia, the Aussie’s price action yesterday was as choppy as my TV reception! AUD/USD bounced around a 100-pip range with resistance at 1.0666 and support at 1.0570. The pair ended the U.S. trading session at 1.0624, a mere 5 pips higher from its day open price.
Earlier today, Melbourne Institute’s survey on inflation expectations came out. It showed that expectations have fallen to 3.3% from last month’s 3.5%. This means that consumers believe that pace of increase of consumer goods have slowed down.
Still, I believe that 3.3% is pretty high, and could mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise hikes sooner than the market expects. Let’s see how the market digests this information today.
Just like its comdoll siblings, the Aussie went on a nice roll yesterday, posting a nice gain versus the dollar. AUD/USD closed at 1.0672, up 48 pips on the day. What’s more is that this marked the fourth consecutive win for the Aussie. Can it make it a clean sweep to end the week?
The Aussie benefited from overall dollar weakness, which weakened thanks to poor economic data. With gold on the rise and a stronger fundamental outlook, the Aussie should remain steady versus the dollar. Just be wary of any shifts in risk sentiment that may cause traders to unwind their positions in higher yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.
No biggies out today, so don’t expect much movement in the markets. Watch out though, as we may see some profit taking to end the week.
Booooooooooooring! Due to the absence of economic data, the Aussie snoozed it’s way across the charts yesterday. Against the dollar, the Aussie ended the day unchanged at 1.0672. Versus the yen, the Aussie was able to post a small 17-pip gain.
According to the forex calendar, this week will probably share the same boring tune as no tier 1 data is scheduled to come out. The only reports due are the MI Leading index on Wednesday and the Capital Expenditure report on Thursday, but those reports do not usually have an impact on price action.
The week will be pretty uneventful in terms of data for Australia, but we could see some action on Thursday once the U.S. GDP report comes out. Cross your fingers!
Whoa! Take it easy boys! The currency bears gobbled up the Aussie yesterday like they were teenagers rushing to see Johnny Depp in the latest Pirates of the Caribbean movie. AUD/USD broke the pattern that Happy Pip pointed out, and plunged by a whopping 137 pips to 1.0507! What gives?
Though there were no big economic reports from Australia, many investors got spooked when risk aversion in markets took a turn for the worse, and not even rising gold prices was able to soften the blow. You see, aside from more downgrades in the euro area, China’s manufacturing PMI also registered a five-month low! This was a bad sign for the Aussie bulls since China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
The economic boards are empty in the Land Down Under again today, but keep an eye out for any news on risk appetite!
Slow and steady was the way to go for the Ausse in yesterday’s trading. After opening at 1.0507, AUD/USD crept up the charts, wiggling its way through resistance at 1.0550, and ending the day at 1.0559.
Whew! Good thing risk appetite kicked in, huh? Aside from the positive reports from the U.S. and euro zone, the rally in commodities yesterday and might have helped boost the comdolls.
Hmm, I wonder if there’s enough risk appetite to go around and offset the not-so-impressive roster of economic reports we saw from Australia today though.
Earlier, a leading indicators report showed that growth could be slowing in the country. The Conference Board leading index March came in at 0.4% from its 0.6% reading in February. Meanwhile, Melbourne Institute’s leading index for March just matched its previous reading of 0.5%.
A report was also released which showed that construction work done in March only increased by 0.7% and fell short of the 1.5% forecast.
Yikes! Make sure you get a good feel of the market’s mood before you enter your trades, ayt? Good luck!
Risk aversion sure did its number on the Aussie! AUD/USD dropped to 1.0450 early in the Asian session, but soon recovered to only a 27-pip loss against the day’s open price. What gives?
Aside from the overall risk aversion in markets, Australia’s weak economic data dragged on the Aussie. For one, the CB leading index rose to a slower pace in March, printing only a 0.4% gain against February’s 0.6% increase. What’s more, the construction figures for the first quarter only showed a 0.7% rise, which is way lower than the previous quarter’s 1.4% gain. Good thing the MI leading index steadied at a 0.5% growth in March while its February reading was revised higher from a 0.4% gain.
Let’s hope that Australia’s private capital expenditure figures at 1:30 am GMT provide a healthier picture for the economy! Market geeks think that the data will increase by 2.8% in the first quarter when there was only a 1.3% gain in the previous period. Be careful in your trades though, because risk sentiment in markets could still cancel out the effects of the report!
Boy did the Aussie get all fired up yesterday! AUD/USD jumped from its 1.0532 open price and reached a high of 1.0643 before closing at 1.0636. Aside from the pick up in risk appetite, what else could’ve boosted the Aussie’s spirits?
It turns out that Australia’s capital expenditure report for the first quarter of 2011 came in much better than expected as it printed a 3.4% increase, way higher than the projected 2.8% reading. Private business investments in buildings and infrastructure were the key factors for the increase. This spells upbeat prospects for the Australian economy because higher capital expenditures would later on translate to improvements in hiring, earnings, consumer spending, and overall economic growth.
Australia won’t be releasing any data today but, if risk appetite keeps up, AUD/USD could be in for more gains. Make sure you check out my U.S. daily commentary as well to see the red flags that could affect risk sentiment.
Give the Aussie a round of applause folks, as it was able to score another win! Thanks to the prospect of further loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, AUD/USD was able to rise in the charts and close the U.S. trading session 63 pips higher at 1.0693 last Friday.
This week will be a big one for Australia, as plethora of high-profile reports will be released.
On Tuesday, at 1:30 am GMT, Australia will release its report on building approvals. The market expects a decline of 1.7%, opposite the huge 9.1% increase seen the previous month.
Then on Wednesday, Australia’s GDP report for the first quarter of 2011 will be published. It is expected to show that Australia’s economy contracted 0.3% due to the damage caused by the floods.
The last set of important reports, the data on retail sales and trade balance, will come on Thursday. Retail sales are predicted to have climbed 0.4% while the trade balance surplus is anticipated to rise to 2.13 billion AUD from 1.74 billion AUD.
Since the Aussie tends to have a positive correlation with economic data, expect better-than-expected results to provide support for the currency. Good luck trading this week folks!
The Aussie seemed too excited to get a headstart against the U.S. dollar as AUD/USD gapped higher over the weekend. However, the pair was unable to hold on to its 1.0728 open price as it edged lower for the rest of the day and closed at 1.0683. Let’s find out whether the Aussie could bounce back today.
Australia’s HIA new home sales report printed a mere 0.2% uptick for April, slower than the 4.3% jump seen last March. This was the slowest pace of increase this year as the housing industry struggled under excessive taxation and strict regulation. On top of that, expectations of a rate hike from the RBA are discouraging consumers from taking home loans in buying new houses.
Aside from that, Australia’s company operating profits for the first quarter of the year turned out to be a disappointment. The report showed a 2.0% drop instead of the projected 2.1% increase. This followed a 1.7% decline in company operating profits seen in the last quarter of 2010, suggesting that Australian businesses are having a hard time getting back on their feet after the floods.
Australia will release its building approvals report and current account balance at 1:30 am GMT today. Building approvals are estimated to dip by 1.7% in April, erasing part of the 9.1% increase seen last March. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is predicted to widen from 7.3 billion AUD to 10.1 billion AUD for the first quarter of the year. Make sure you keep a close eye on these reports because worse than expected figures could force the Aussie to go down under!
With the mixed reports we got from Australia yesterday, it’s no wonder Aussie traders didn’t know where to go. AUD/USD traded to an intraday high of 1.0758 before it came back down to end the day practically unchanged at 1.0678.
While building approvals data was bullish (-1.3% vs. -1.7%), the rest of yesterday’s releases weren’t as uplifting. Australia’s current account revealed a wider deficit of 10.4 billion AUD, up from 8.1 billion AUD. Likewise, private sector credit data was also a big downer as it showed no growth following the previous month’s 0.6% increase.
And the bad news just keeps coming! Today it was revealed that Australia’s GDP shrank by 1.2% in Q1 2011, which is a bigger contraction than the 1.1% drop that many pessimists had already predicted. The weird thing is, the Aussie is rallying!
What gives?? Well, the bearishness of Q1 2011’s headline figure might have been countered by the fact that Q4 2010’s growth was revised up from 0.7% to 0.8%. And keep in mind, even though Q1 posted negative growth quarter-on-quarter, its GDP is still 1.0% than Q1 2010.
But I’d keep my eye on the Aussie for the rest of the day. This might just be a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction we’re seeing.
It’s best to stay alert, especially since we still have commodity prices data comin’ up at 6:30 am GMT. The report last printed a 32.3% increase in the change in the selling price of exported commodities. If an even stronger figure is released this time around, it could spark another Aussie rally.
Geronimooooo!!! The Aussie sharply went down under against its major counterparts yesterday when a worse-than-expected GDP report lined up with the risk aversion that loomed over markets. After tipping an intraday high near 1.0750, AUD/USD plunged hard and ended the day with a 62-pip loss at 1.0616.
Despite Australia’s GDP report surprisingly printing a contraction in the first quarter, the Aussie bulls were able to push the Aussie higher during the Asian session on a better-than-expected PMI report from China, and assumptions that the 1.2% economic growth contraction is just the effect of the calamities that struck the country in the first quarter.
And the buck (or the Aussie) didn’t stop there! Risk aversion soon hovered over markets and dragged on the high-yielding currencies like the comdolls. Of course, it didn’t help that weak employment and manufacturing figures in the U.S. added in the risk aversion mix.
For today the cool cats in the markets will be keeping close tabs on the effect of Australia’s retail sales and trade balance figures for April. Data released a few espresso shots ago revealed that retail sales inched higher by 1.1% in the month, while the country’s trade surplus narrowed down slightly to 1.60 billion AUD from March’s 1.69 billion AUD figure.
Watch your trades closely, brothas!
That’s the way I like it… making pips to positive data! Holler! The Aussie grooved its way to the bull turf, bouncing from support at its opening price of 1.0617 a few times before ending the day at 1.0678.
The comdoll was probably able to perform its own rendition of the Deep Side hit when the retail salesreport for April came in at 1.1%. FYI, it wasn’t only almost triple the 0.4% forecast, but it was also the biggest increase since November 2009!
I wonder if there are enough good vibes for the Aussie to score another win against the dollar, given that a couple of failed to meet expectations.
The trade balance report for April disappointed the consensus, printing only a 1.60 billion AUD trade surplus. Analysts expected exports to have outpaced imports by 2.07 billion AUD during the month.
The AIG Services Index also didn’t impress. According to the report which surveys service-based companies, business conditions weren’t as A-okay in May than they were in April. The index printed lower at 49.9 from its 51.5 reading for the previous month.
Be extra careful out there today, ayt? Remember that it’s NFP Friday and we’ll most probably see a lot of volatility. Peace!
Up, up, here we go! Just like the Far East movement’s hit single Rocketeer, Aussie rallies never get old! Even with the AIG services index ticking down, the Aussie dollar was able to rise above its American counterpart, pushing AUD/USD up 43 pips to 1.0721.
Aussie traders didn’t seem to mind that the AIG services index fell from 51.5 to 49.9… at least not after seeing the U.S.’s dismal NFP report! The U.S.’s disappointing labor market data pushed investors to seek out the safe haven arms of gold, which in turn helped lift the Aussie against the Greenback.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Aussie can extend its gains further this week. Today, we have the ANZ job ads report coming out at 9:30 am GMT. This report could send the Aussie in the right direction if it prints a number better than the previous month’s 1.0% increase. Remember, Australia already boasts of a very low unemployment rate, so if this shows that companies are STILL looking to hire, it would be very impressive.
Also, we’re less than 24 hours away from the RBA rate statement. Do your homework and read Forex Gump’s guide to the central bank’s interest rate decision! Peace out, playaz!
Ouch! The Aussie took a hit yesterday as risk aversion popped its ugly head in the markets. AUD/USD closed a couple of pips below the 1.0700 handle while AUD/JPY fell by more than 25 pips from its open price. Could today’s RBA statement change all that?
To hike or not to hike? That is the question on RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’ mind while traders await the central bank’s rate decision at 4:30 am GMT today. The RBA kept interest rates on hold at 4.75% during their May meeting and could keep it there this month. Then again, RBA policymakers did mention during their latest meeting that rates need to be increased at some point. If you’re planning to trade this event, make sure you check out Forex Gump’s Guide to the RBA Rate Statement first!
With the RBA giving us a rather flat tone in its interest rate statement, we didn’t see much change in AUD/USD trading. After spiking lower midway through Asian session, AUD/USD recovered and managed to close at 1.0712, a mere 13 pip gain for the day.
As expected, the RBA did not raise interest rates, nor did it give any inclination of raising them any time soon. Some traders were expecting hints of hawkishness, but instead got a rather flat and neutral tone. This initially sent the Aussie lower, but just like other higher yielders, AUD/USD recovered on overall dollar weakness.
As long as we’re comparing interest rates though, I think that the Australian dollar has an advantage versus the dollar. The RBA is probably just waiting for stronger signs of recovery in Australian economy and we may still see a rate hike later this year. On the other hand, the U.S. economy is struggling right now, and the markets aren’t pricing in a rate hike until mid-2012.
Just a few minutes ago, house financing data became available. In the past month, home loans were up 4.8%, a nice improvement over the -1.5% dip we saw the previous month, and more than double the expected 2.3% increase. Home loan approvals is an early indicator of construction, as people need to borrow money before they can start building their homes.
Early tomorrow, we’ve got a red flag coming up in the form of the monthly employment reports at 1:30 am GMT. Word on the street is that 25,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, a major improvement from the previous month’s 22,100 reduction. Watch out though, because if this report fails to please the markets, it may send AUD/USD through major support at 1.0600!
The Aussie played slip ‘n slide on the charts yesterday. Too bad the comdoll ended the session with a 95-pip booboo. AUD/USD opened at 1.0710 and fell all the way down to its closing price of 1.0615. Ouch!
Risk aversion stemming from worries over Greece and the lack of economic reports from Australia might have pushed the Aussie into the bear lair yesterday. But err, I don’t think today would be any better given the disappointing jobs report for May.
After the employment change report for April printed a 22,100 decline in jobs, analysts had giddily anticipated a rebound of 25,600 for the following month. However, the actual report showed that only 7,800 jobs were added in May. Yikes!
On a slightly-brighter note, the unemployment rate remained steady and matched the consensus at 4.9%.
We don’t have any report left for the Aussie today, so it may be better to gauge the market’s mood before you decide jump in on any trade. Good luck!