Daily Economic Commentary: Australia

Talk about crash and burn! AUD/USD had dropped to an intraday low below 1.0400 last Friday despite the lack of economic report from the Land Down Under. What the heck is up with the Aussie bears?!

Well, it certainly didn’t help that its fellow comdoll, the Loonie, was weighed by weak economic data. In addition, many investors believe that AUD/USD was also weighed by the huge buying pressure on USD/JPY. Since gold prices actually rose last Friday and Australia didn’t release any economic report, this is probably one of the better explanations for AUD/USD’s slide.

I won’t blame the bears if they continue their cause today. A couple of hours ago Australia printed its job ads report, which showed a 1.5% decline in March after a 3.0% jump in February. No other data is scheduled for printing today so watch your Aussie charts closely to see if the comdolls continue to weaken against the Greenback!

That’s how you start the week with a bang! With AUD/JPY soaring to new highs, AUD/USD was taken along on the ride as well, as it rose 44 pips to finish at 1.0411. Will we see more of the same today?

In a few minutes, the latest NAB business confidence index will be released. Last month, the index printed a score of just 1. Any score above that could give the Aussie some support.

No other news lined up, but make sure you pay attention to that AUD/JPY pair. It looks like traders are going yield-hunting, so consistent buying in AUD/JPY may help prop up other AUD pairs as well.

Surf’s up, mate! The Aussie hanged-ten yesterday as it climbed higher up the charts. AUD/USD rose 76 pips to finish at 1.0487, and is now trading at a major resistance level. Let’s see if it can break through!

The Australian dollar got a boost when Chinese CPI figures came in at just 2.1%, way below the 3.2% registered during last month’s release, and below the anticipated 2.5% figure. With inflation cooling off, it eases off the pressure for the People’s Bank of China to hike interest rates in order to combat inflation.

This in turn was positive for the Aussie, as it means that China can stick with its easing measures to help its economy grow. Keep in mind that China is Australia’s largest trading partner, so if China prospers, Australia could stand to benefit.

Tomorrow, watch out for employment figures headed our way at 1:30 am GMT. Expectations are that 6,700 jobs were lost last month, which would be a poor follow up to the 71,500 jobs added last month. Should this come in better than expected though, it could give the Aussie a nice boost to break through key resistance just below 1.0500.

Way to go, Aussie! While most major currencies were returning their recent gains to the Greenback, the Australian dollar managed to go for more and climb closer to the 1.0550 area. Can it keep going higher today?

Despite weaker than expected Chinese trade balance and a drop in Westpac consumer confidence, the Australian dollar was able to edge higher as Chinese imports posted a 14.1% annual increase. This spells good prospects for the Land Down Under since it is the main source of China’s commodity imports.

For today, the Australian jobs release could be a make or break for the Aussie as the report is projected to show a 6.7K drop in hiring for March, following the shocking 71.5K jump in employment last February. Note that analysts remarked that the February figure was unnaturally high because of a statistical error so we might see a correction in the March data. Stay on your toes for the actual release at 2:30 am GMT.

What a crazy day for the Aussie! After it looked like it was headed for new lows, AUD/USD got a boost during the London session, rising as high as 1.0583 before eventually closing at 1.0545, just a few pips above its opening price.

The Australian labor market lost a whopping 36,100 jobs last month, which was way worse than the anticipated 6,700 job cuts. This was also a major reversal from last month’s figure of net job gains of 74,000, the best number in over 10 years. This caused the unemployment rate to jump to 5.6%, up from last month’s 5.4% figure.

Naturally, AUD pairs came crashing lower following the release of the report.Interestingly enough though, the Aussie recovered later in the day, and managed to retest former highs. Talk about being resilient!

No data headed our way today, but make sure stop by my USD commentary, as we’ve got some top tier reports lined up during the New York session that could cause some volatility in the markets!

The Aussie was no match for the dollar in Friday’s trading. For the first time in five days, AUD/USD closed lower from its opening price. The pair had settled at 1.0515 by the end of the New York session after opening at 1.0545.

But don’t fret! I would seem that the comdoll’s price action might have only been because of profit-taking. I’m just not sure if the Aussie will be able to carry on with its rally in today’s trading though.

A few economic reports are due from Australia’s largest trading partner, China, which could affect the Aussie’s performance. At 2:00 am GMT, the Chinese GDP report for Q1 2013 is eyed at 8.0% and its fixed asset investment for the quarter is anticipated at 21.3%.

Positive figures would probably be good news for the Aussie and could result to a rally. On the other hand, worse-than-expected readings would likely lead to a further sell-off. With that said, make sure you keep tabs on the reports, ayt?

Talk about going down under! The Australian dollar suffered a massive selloff during yesterday’s trading as AUD/USD slipped to the 1.0300 area while AUD/JPY dipped to the 99.00 level. What the heck happened?

China’s GDP came in below expectations of an 8.0% figure and posted growth of only 7.7% for the first quarter of 2013. This was weaker than the previous period’s 7.9% economic expansion, showing that the world’s second largest economy could be slowing down once more. This was enough to push AUD/USD below the 1.0400 handle a few hours after the release and down to the 1.0300 area for the rest of the trading day, as Australia is China’s largest source of raw materials.

It didn’t help that gold prices slumped by roughly 9% to their two-year lows on Monday, following the sharp selloff that took place last week. Remember that the Australian dollar is positively correlated to gold prices so the drop in gold, as well as other precious metals, is currently weighing on the commodity currency.

Only the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes and new motor vehicle sales report are due from Australia today, and these reports aren’t expected to make a huge impact on Aussie price action. With that, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY could continue selling off due to the ongoing economic downturn in China and the sharp drop in gold prices. Stay on your toes for any potential changes in sentiment though!

Aussie, Aussie, oi, oi, oi! The comdoll finally made a comeback yesterday after two days of massive selling. AUD/USD found support at the 1.0300 handle to finish the day 97 pips higher at 1.0396.

The minutes of the last RBA meeting didn’t really have much of an impact on the Aussie since it really didn’t present us with anything new. According to the report, growth will come in below the trend for the rest of the year and inflation gives the central bank room to ease monetary policy.

For the most part, the Aussie rallied along with the rest of the comdolls as risk appetite recovered. Will it carry on today? Market sentiment will probably continue to dictate the currency’s price action given that no reports are due from Australia today.

Just when you thought the currency was going to stage a major comeback, it makes a complete 180 degree turn and sells-off! After its strong performance on Tuesday, AUD/USD suffered a major defeat yesterday and more than 100 pips. The currency pair ended the U.S. trading session at 1.0294, down from 1.0395.

Risk aversion was mostly to blame for the pair’s decline. Apparently, in the U.S., the corporate earnings report from the major companies failed to meet market forecast.

Earlier today, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence survey was released. It came in with a reading of 2, completely opposite the previous month’s reading of -5. It was a welcome improvement, but it didn’t have any effect on price action.

Australia’s economic cupboard doesn’t have anything left on it, but I think we’ll still see some volatility especially after yesterday’s strong moves. Let’s see if the U.S. reports later (initial jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index) would give the Aussie some direction.

With no major data on tap, AUD/USD stuck within its average daily range, as it finished just two pips higher at 1.0296. Could we be in for another snoozefest today?

Unfortunately, we don’t have any data on tap today, so we may just see more consolidation on the Aussie. In any case, be careful trading out there today homies!

The Aussie’s price action last Friday was as wild as a roller coaster ride. At first, the currency managed to stage a strong rally, but as the day went on, it eventually gave back its gains to end the day barely changed. AUD/USD began the day at 1.0297, rose as high as 1.0360, and then closed at 1.0288.

This week, we’ll be treated to Australian inflation data. The Australian CPI report will be published on Wednesday, and it is anticipated to show that the average level of consumer goods and services rose 0.7% in Q1 2013. The CPI is widely watched by traders because it can provide clues with regards to future monetary policy. Generally speaking, a higher CPI is considered bullish for the domestic currency.

The Aussie sank deeper in the bear lair yesterday as AUD/USD registered another 7-pip loss by the end of the day. What the heck happened?

Don’t blame economic reports! Australia was a snoozefest in terms of economic data yesterday, so the Aussie’s price action was determined mostly by risk appetite.

Let’s see if China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI can make any difference on the comdoll’s price action. A few minutes ago the report came in at 50.5, which is weaker than the previous 51.6 reading and the expected 51.5 figure.

We’re only starting to stretch our trading muscles for the day so make sure that you keep an eye out on how long the Aussie will react to China’s major report!

What a comeback! After plunging to its 7-week low at 1.0221 following the disappointing Chinese manufacturing report, AUD/USD pared its losses in the London session. By the day’s close, the pair was back to where it started the day at 1.0267.

Will the Aussie remain resilient in today’s trading?

Err, I’m not quite sure. Earlier today, the CPI report for Q1 2013 printed at 0.4% versus the 0.7% forecast while the core reading was at 0.3%, also lower than the 0.5% estimate. The figures initially sent the Aussie lower as they indicate that inflationary pressures are still limited. Consequently, they may just give the RBA more reasons to stick to its dovish rhetoric. Yikes!

But continue to gauge market sentiment. Who knows, risk appetite could kick in and allow the Aussie to rally.

Weak inflation? Pfft. Ain’t nobody got time for that! The Aussie bulls shrugged off the possibility of an RBA rate hike and pushed AUD/USD 14 pips above its open price instead. Awesome!

Yesterday the Land Down Under printed its quarterly inflation numbers, which showed that consumer prices had only risen by 0.4% in Q1 when investors were expecting a 0.7% growth. What this means is that the RBA now has more room to cut its interest rates and boost the economy.

Luckily for the Aussie, traders paid little attention to the inflation numbers. In fact, high-yielding currencies weathered weak economic reports all over yesterday, which could signal more upticks for the comdolls in the near future.

Australia won’t be releasing any economic report today, so the Aussie’s price action will most likely depend on its counterparts. Watch your Aussie pairs closely, aight?

What a topsy-turvy day for the Aussie! AUD/USD staged a strong rally from the 1.0275 area to a high of 1.0330 during the Asian session, before reversing and dipping back below 1.0300. What the heck was that all about?

There were no economic reports released from Australia in yesterday’s trading sessions as Australian banks were on a holiday, leaving AUD/USD at the mercy of U.S. reports and risk sentiment. Stronger than expected U.S. jobless claims data did give the dollar a bit of a boost after the release of the report, which is most probably why AUD/USD erased most of its recent gains.

For today, there are no reports due from Australia again, which suggests that AUD/USD could be vulnerable to U.S. dollar action once more. Take note that the U.S. will print its Q1 2013 GDP report today and that this could have a huge impact for dollar pairs. Good luck!

For the seventh straight trading day, the Australian dollar was unable to make significant moves in the foreign exchange market. AUD/USD mainly traded sideways, finding support at around the 1.0260 area and resistance at 1.0340. The absence market-moving data from Australia seemed to be the reason behind the Aussie’s lack of direction.

This week, Australia’s economic calendar has two red flags on it.

The first one is the building approvals report. It will be published on Thursday at 1:30 am GMT and it is expected to show a 0.4% decline.

The second one is Australia’s Producer Price Index for Q1 2013. It’ll come out on Friday, at 1:30 am GMT. Market participants anticipate a 0.3% increase in the PPI. Higher-than-expected results on both these reports are normally seen as bullish for the Aussie.

Slowly but surely, AUD/USD crawled up to the 1.0350 minor psychological resistance in yesterday’s trading and consolidated in that area. Will we see a breakout in either direction today?

Although Australia didn’t release any economic data in yesterday’s trading, AUD/USD was able to edge higher because of the weaker than expected U.S. personal income and spending data. Make sure you drop by my U.S. economic commentary to see the actual figures!

For today, there are no reports due from the Land Down Under so we might see more consolidation from AUD/USD. Do keep an eye out for the release of U.S. CB consumer confidence and Chicago PMI figures if you’re trading this pair!

The Aussie stretched its lead against the Greenback as buyers lifted AUD/USD up 17 pips to land at 1.0367. That makes it two in a row now for the comdoll! Will it make it three today?

Despite printing worse-than-expected private sector credit numbers (0.2% vs 0.3%), the Aussie managed to end the day higher. But it seems as though it has the Greenback’s weakness to thank more than anything, as the American currency experienced a broad-based selloff in the New York session.

But with most of today’s reports printing in the red, can the Aussie sustain its rally? Just hours ago, Australia published its AIG manufacturing index and signaled a deeper contraction in the manufacturing sector as it slipped from 44.4 to 36.7. Meanwhile, China (Australia’s largest trading partner) printed out worse-than-expected manufacturing stats of its own, as its PMI slipped from 50.9 to 50.6. The only silver lining was the 4.2% increase in new home sales reported by HIA.

However, the markets seem to be shrugging off these reports for now, as the Aussie is still chillin’ like a villain. Traders might just be waiting for the US reports and FOMC statement due later in the New York session before they bust a move.

There goes almost all of AUD/USD’s profits! The Aussie wiped out most of its gains from last week in one day after a tandem of economic reports weakened the comdolls. The pair plunged by a whopping 96 pips and closed at 1.0271. Yikes!

China celebrated Labor Day yesterday, but that didn’t stop the government from printing a weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI report. The report came in at 50.6, lower than last month’s 50.9 reading. Strangely enough, the pair didn’t show reaction to it until the U.S. session traders opened shop. Will we see more comdoll weakness today?

A couple of hours ago The Land Down Under released its building approvals report, which showed a 5.5% decline for the month of March. Remember that a 3.0% growth was posted in February and that analysts had expected at least a 1.2% growth. If that isn’t enough to ruffle the Aussie bulls, China’s HSBC final manufacturing PMI also released earlier showed a drop from 50.5 to 50.4.

No other major reports are scheduled for today so keep an eye out for any major news that could shift sentiment for the high-yielding comdolls!

For the second day in a row, the Aussie slipped against the Greenback as AUD/USD dropped 19 pips to 1.0252. Uh oh… Is this the start of a new trend?

As I had mentioned yesterday, the Aussie was crippled early on by a weak building approvals report. Aside from that, it had to deal with disappointing results from the HSBC China manufacturing PMI.

Let’s see if today’s quarterly PPI report will change its fortune. It’s expected to show a 0.2% increase in prices in Q1 2013, the same as what we saw in Q4 2012. If it prints a strong upside surprise, it could lead the Aussie to erase some of its recent losses. Catch the report in just a few minutes at 1:30 am GMT.