What an ugly wipeout! The Australian dollar was knocked off its feet by both the Greenback and the yen, as AUD/USD hit new yearly lows while AUD/JPY fell below the 91.00 handle. Is there any chance that the Aussie could catch a good wave today?
Not even the 0.3% increase in private sector credit was able to lift the Aussie’s spirits on Friday, as the currency gave way to dollar dominance. After all, weak fundamentals in Australia and the potential weakness in China aren’t exactly brownie points for the Australian dollar!
Earlier today, Australia printed mixed data, as the AIG manufacturing index improved from 43.8 to 49.6 while the MI inflation expectations index printed a flat reading. Later on, the Chinese official manufacturing PMI could be a bigger mover for the Aussie pairs, as the index is expected to dip from 50.8 to 50.1. That’s dangerously close to the contractionary zone, if you ask me!
On Tuesday, the RBA will make its monetary policy decision and possibly address the current weak spots in the Australian economy. No rate changes are expected, as traders will be all eyes and ears on the accompanying statement.
Retail sales and trade balance figures are due on Wednesday, and small improvements are expected. Then, on Thursday, the building approvals report will be released and it is expected to show a 0.9% decline. No reports are due from Australia on Friday, leaving Aussie traders to focus on the results of the highly-anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Surf’s up, mates! The Aussie had a fantastic start of the week as it gained against the Greenback and the yen. AUD/USD popped up by 106 pips while AUD/JPY rose by a cool 140 pips.
As I mentioned in my other currency updates, an overall recovery in risk appetite as well as a rise in gold prices sealed the deal for the commodities yesterday. Don’t be too complacent though. At 4:30 am GMT the RBA is set to release its interest rate statement.
Though the central bank isn’t expected to change its interest rates, many are looking for bearish statements that would drag the Aussie lower. If you remember, the RBA cited muted inflation, weak growth prospects, and an overvalued currency as its reasons why a rate cut is still on the table. Keep an eye out for that, will ya?
Tuesday was NOT the Aussie’s day. No thanks to the dollar’s strength and a dovish RBA statement, the Aussie extended its slide against the dollar. AUD/USD closed the day 88 pips below its opening price at .9143.
According to the RBA, inflation is still not too high for them to worry about it. They once again reiterated their sentiment that it provides scope for further easing. Meanwhile, as for the Aussie, central bankers recognized that the currency has lost almost 10% of its value since April. However, they said that it is still at a high level. If that ain’t jawboning, I don’t know what is!
Will we see the Aussie bottom out soon? Err, I don’t know about that.
Earlier, the Australian retail sales report for May printed a measly 0.1% reading and disappointed expectations for a 0.4% uptick. Yikes! On the brighter side of things though, the trade balance data showed a bigger surplus of 670 million AUD versus the 50 million AUD consensus.
The RBA will most likely take into consideration these mixed figures and you should too if you plan on trading the Aussie for the rest of the day!
While other major currencies made significant advances over the Greenback, the Aussie was unable to follow suit and actually posted losses. The disappointing result of the retail sales report seemed to be the cause, leading to a 76-pip decline in AUD/USD for the day.
As I mentioned yesterday, the country’s retail sales failed to meet forecast. It only showed a 0.1% increase versus the 0.4% gain the market had initially predicted. In addition to this, the previous month’s 0.2% rise was revised down to -0.1%.
Then, earlier today, the Aussie took another hit when the country’s report on building approvals was released. It unfortunately came in worse than expected, printing a decline of 1.1% (the forecast was only for a 0.9% decline). It was opposite the previous month’s gain of 9.1%.
Nothing on Australia’s economic docket for the rest of the day, and with U.S. traders out on holiday celebrating Independence Day, we could see the Aussie move sideways. Keep a close eye on the previous day’s highs and lows as they could very well hold today!
Score one for the Aussie! After two straight days of ending in the red, it finally posted a win against the Greenback. Despite a poor showing from the building approvals report, it defied gravity to take AUD/USD 82 pips higher to end at .9148.
It seems as though construction activity topped out after posting a 9.5% surge in April, as the month of May saw building approvals decline by 1.1%. But although this decline was worse than the consensus forecast of a 0.9% decrease, it was pretty much just shrugged off by the markets.
Sadly, that’s the last major report that we’ll see from Australia this week. However, we do have some pretty hardcore reports coming out of the U.S. today. Aside from that, U.S. traders will be returning from their bank holiday, so expect to see some crazy moves in the New York session!
Just like its comdoll siblings, the Aussie fell victim to the dollar last Friday, as it gave back all of its Thursday gains. AUD/USD slipped 88 pips to finish the week at .9060, its lowest finish in 3 years! Can the Aussie bounce back this week?
Tomorrow at 1:30 am GMT, the NAB business confidence report will be released. The index clocked in at -1 last month and if we see a drop off from this number, it could lead to more losses.
Until then, we have no big reports on tap, so you may wanna take your cues from what’s happening elsewhere. More specifically, keep an eye out from any surprises from the U.S. or China, as any developments from those nations will most likely dominate the forex market.
Guess who’s back? No, it’s not Slim Shady. It’s the Aussie bulls, yo! Thanks to a pickup in risk appetite and some slightly better-than-expected data, AUD/USD was able to avoid more losses yesterday. The pair even reached a high of .9146 before it settled 80 pips higher than its open price. Booyah!
As I mentioned in my other updates, risk appetite had somewhat picked up yesterday. In the Aussie’s case though, the currency strength is further fueled by the ANZ job ads data, which only printed a decline of 1.8%, better than last month’s 2.5% downtick.
Will the Aussie go for two today? The NAB business confidence data, the only report scheduled today, printed a 0 reading a few minutes ago. This is just above last month’s -1 reading, so you might want to temper your bullish inclinations. Remember that there are still lots of big data coming up today. Don’t let yourself get caught by not being flexible in your currency biases!
The Aussie was pretty stoked yesterday as it managed to catch a good wave against the U.S. dollar. AUD/USD cruised up from the .9100 area to a high of .9199 while AUD/JPY reached the 93.00 level. Can the Australian dollar hold on to its gains?
Chinese CPI came in better than expected for June, as the figure showed a 2.7% increase. This was higher than the previous 2.1% reading and the estimated 2.5% rise. However, producer price inflation slipped by 2.7%, which is a larger decline compared to the projected 2.5% drop.
For today, Chinese trade balance figures are set for release and analysts are eyeing a larger surplus of 27.8 billion USD from the previous month’s 20.4 billion USD surplus. If the actual figure meets or beats expectations, it would reflect an improvement in global demand for Chinese products, which also bodes well for Australia’s raw material exports.
Meanwhile, Australia is set to print the Westpac consumer sentiment index for July. Recall that the report printed a 4.7% increase for June, which reflects a strong improvement in consumer confidence. Another positive figure could boost the Australian dollar as it would reveal that consumers sentiment is doing well in the Land Down Under.
The Aussie finished yesterday’s trading “down under” (Ha!) its opening price against the dollar. AUD/USD opened at .9194. It traded higher and tapped an intraday high at .9236 only to give up all its gains and finish the day at .9111.
It would seem that the Aussie got sold off on profit-taking ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. However, during the Tokyo session, it’s worth mentioning that the pair dipped a bit following some bad news from its largest trading partner, China.
According to the latest trade balance report, the country scored a 27.1 billion CNY surplus for June. However, a deeper look at the data would reveal that both imports and exports slumped during the month!
I don’t know if we’ll see the bad vibes of the report catch up to the Aussie, or if traders would rather focus on the positive labor figures we got from Australia.
Earlier today, it was reported that the labor market added 10,300 jobs in June and came in waaay above the modest forecast of 300! On the not so bright side of things though, we saw the unemployment rate trickle higher to 5.7% and May’s reading was also revised up from 5.5% to 5.6%.
It will be pretty interesting to see how the Aussie trades today. Keep a close tab on the comdoll!
The Aussie got caught up in the market waves yesterday as it lost some of its post-FOMC minutes gains against the Greenback. AUD/USD went up to an intraday high of .9307 but finished the day just below the .9200 handle.
Yesterday the Land Down Under printed its employment numbers, which showed the unemployment rate ticking higher from 5.6% to 5.7% for the month of June. 10,300 workers also found jobs during the month, but a closer look revealed that a lot of them found part time work instead of full time jobs.
Will Australia’s reports drag on the Aussie today? The home loans data released a few coffee cups ago showed a 1.8% increase for the month of May, which is higher than April’s 1.2% growth but is lower than the 2.3% growth forecast. No other reports are on tap today, so watch out for reports that might affect the comdolls’ price action!
Whoa! It looks like our homies aren’t done selling Aussie dollars yet! The comdoll ended the week on a low note as it finished sharply lower against the Greenback. After opening at .9180, AUD/USD tumbled to as low as .8999 before settling at .9061. And the sell-off may just continue today!
Concerns about China’s growth seem to be anchoring the Aussie down, as it’s set to publish its Q2 2013 GDP report in just a few minutes. With recent reports from the Asian giant showing signs of economic shakiness, traders feel that there’s a chance that growth may undershoot forecasts.
At 2:00 am GMT today, China is expected to reveal that the economy expanded by 7.7% once again. However, keep in mind that China’s very own finance minister recently claimed that he sees the economy expanding by only 7.0% this year. That tells us that that the government expects a substantial slowdown in growth later in the year and that there’s a chance that Q2 growth will fall short of expectations.
Also, Chinese industrial production data is expected to reveal a slight slowdown in growth from 9.2% to 9.1%. Meanwhile, retail sales growth is expected to hold steady at 12.9%. These reports will likely have a very strong impact on the Aussie, as a slowdown in China can adversely affect Australian exports, so don’t you dare miss these releases at 2:00 am GMT!
Score one for the Aussie bulls! Despite the lack of major data from the Land Down Under, the comdolls were able to stage a nice uptick against the Greenback. AUD/USD closed 41 pips above its open price after hitting an intraday high of .9123.
Aside from overall dollar weakness, it might have also helped the Aussie bulls that Australia’s new motor vehicle sales clocked in a solid 4.0% gain for the month of June. That’s a heck of a lot stronger than the 0.3% uptick that we saw in May!
The RBA’s minutes was the only report on deck, and, based on what I saw a couple of minutes ago, the central bank had merely repeated its sentiments from its monetary policy statement. What’s important to note is that there’s not much signs that the RBA is cutting its rates anytime soon as it’s still watching the effects of its previous rate cuts.
No other news from Australia today, so keep an eye out for any major economic news events that might influence the comdolls’ price action!
The Aussie hanged ten on Tuesday, as it led the way in the forex markets. AUD/USD had its biggest one day gain in a month, as it rose a solid 142 pips to finish at .9252. Will we see more of the same today?
The Australian dollar’s good fortune had nothing to do with anything that happened locally, and everything to do with the dollar, which was weaker across the board. We could see similar sentiment prevail today, as the biggest event marked on our calendar is Fed President Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual monetary policy speech at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a highly anticipated event, so there stands a good chance we could see choppy trading later today!
You win some, you lose some. The Australian dollar had a mixed performance in yesterday’s trading as it managed to post some gains against the yen but lost ground to the Greenback. AUD/USD ended the day around the .9200 level while AUD/JPY climbed to a high of 92.18.
The only report released from Australia yesterday was the MI leading index, which showed a smaller increase of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.7% rise. Earlier today, Australia reported a flat reading for its May CB leading index, a weaker figure compared to the 0.3% uptick seen last April. This goes to show that economic activity is starting to slow down in Australia, hinting at lower growth figures for the recent months.
Later on, Australia will print its NAB business confidence report. This is a quarterly release, which means that it could have a huge impact on the Aussie’s movement. The reading just improved from -5 to 2 in the previous quarter, reflecting a rise in confidence. Another increase for the second quarter could help boost the Aussie’s morale today.
A couple of disappointing reports crippled the Aussie early in the day and set the tone for AUD/USD trading. From its opening price of .9232, the pair tumbled and didn’t stop until it hit .9138. At the end of the day, it settled at .9172.
As I had mentioned yesterday, the CB leading index didn’t do much to lend the Aussie support. It showed absolutely no growth in May! Meanwhile, the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report printed similarly disappointing results as the index slid from a reading of 2 to -1 in June. The sub-zero reading indicates worsening business conditions, which is alarming considering that the RBA has already lowered interest rates to record lows in hopes of boosting economic activity.
Nothing coming out of the Land Down Under today. In the meantime, I suggest y’all keep track of the market’s sentiment towards the Greenback if you plan on trading AUD/USD. Good luck, fellas! The weekend is only a few hours away now, make these last hours count!
Just like peanut butter and jelly and waffles and whipped cream, there’s no denying that risk appetite and the Aussie are a good combo. The comdoll’s price action last Friday is proof to this. AUD/USD finished the day higher at .9190 after starting the day at .9172 as investors sought higher-yielding assets.
News that the PBOC removed its floor for lending rates spurred a bit of risk of appetite and boosted the Aussie. However, it’s noteworthy to mention that the move wasn’t sustained as traders soon realized that the positive effect on liquidity which could arise from this would be limited.
Today, our forex calendar is blank for reports from Australia. With that said, it would do you well to keep tabs on market sentiment as it could continue to dictate the currency’s price action.
Surf’s up, mates! The Aussie clocked in another positive day against the Greenback as AUD/USD closed 63 pips higher than its open price. What’s up with that?!
Australia didn’t release any economic report yesterday, but the broad dollar weakness as well as the jump in gold prices was enough to spur on the Aussie bulls. IN fact, ALL the major commodity-related dollars (AUD, CAD, NZD) posted gains against the scrilla!
No reports scheduled from the Land Down Under today, so pay close attention to any news that might affect the price action of the high-yielding commodity currencies!
Strike three! AUD/USD gained for a third straight day in a row even though Australia didn’t chip in any economic report. Was the pair’s 50-pip uptick all about the Greenback then?
It’s possible. The Aussie didn’t get any support from Australia’s data and it sure as heck didn’t help the high-yielding currency that gold prices inched lower yesterday. As I mentioned in my USD update, the weak reports that Uncle Sam had released really took its toll on the Greenback.
Will the tides turn against the Aussie today? A few seconds ago Australia released its quarterly CPI numbers, which barely met the market geeks’ expectations. Not only that, but China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI also came in at 47.7, which is deeper below 50.0 than investors are comfortable with. Not surprisingly, the reports are weighing on the comdolls right now. Still, you might want to keep an eye out for possible intraday reversals as we still have a couple of major reports on deck.
Abandon ship! The Aussie sank like a rock yesterday as disappointing manufacturing data from China led to decreased demand for the high-yielding currency. AUD/USD tapped a high of .9318 before it descended to .9160, marking a 133-pip loss on the day.
Oddly enough, the Aussie actually started the day with a strong rally. The headline CPI clocked in at 0.4% (just slightly below the 0.5% consensus forecast), but the markets showed more interest in the trimmed mean CPI, which increased from 0.4% to 0.5% as expected. This led to a brief but strong spike in AUD/USD, causing price to peak just above the .9300 handle.
But as I said, the rally was extremely short-lived – Chinese data released minutes later led to a massive sell-off for the comdoll. The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI printed a decline from 48.2 to 47.7 in July, falling short of the forecasts which called for a reading of 48.6. This takes the index to a fresh 11-month low, prompting market watchers to wonder whether a new round of stimulus could be in the cards for China.
Unfortunately, this pretty much set the tone for the rest of the day, as AUD/USD continued to spiral downwards. The question is, will the Aussie continue falling today? Perhaps! After all, we can’t expect any support to come from Australia since it won’t be publishing any reports. However, the U.S. has a couple of notable releases scheduled for today that may help AUD/USD recover if they print below forecasts. Check out our economic calendar to get the full deets!
It was a bounce back Thursday for the Aussie, as it came roaring back yesterday! After opening the day at .9158, AUD/USD rose 100 pips to finish at .9258. Can the Aussie continue to rise?
Keep in mind that the Aussie’s good fortune had more to do with USD weakness as opposed to any good news coming from Down Under. That said, with nothing lined up once again, we can probably expect risk sentiment to dictate AUD trading for today. Good luck, mates!