The AUD rode a wave of optimism yesterday, clearing out its losses for the week. The AUDUSD pair closed at 0.9172. The last two Fridays, we’ve seen the pair make solid dips – will today make it three weeks in a row?
Like I said yesterday, risk sentiment got a nice boost from employment data that showed that the job market grew once again. With the labor market showing signs of improvement, this should put pressure on the RBA to keep raising rates in 2010. Word on the street is that we could see another rate hike in the first meeting next year…
While nothing is coming out from Australia today, I’m keeping an eye out for data out of China that will be available at 2:00 am GMT. The most notable data will be the industrial production y/y report, which is expected to show that production has grown by 18.2% from levels a year ago. Take note that China is one of Australia’s major trading partners. If the Chinese are doing well, it could be bullish for the AUD.
After a brief period of consolidation, the Aussie edged lower against the greenback as US retail sales came in much better than expected. Strong economic data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, provided a bit of support for the Aussie.
This week, Australia has a couple of top-tier reports scheduled. The action kicks off on Tuesday when the RBA releases the minutes from their latest monetary policy meeting. This report, which is due 12:30 am GMT, should provide in-depth information behind their most recent interest rate decision. Aside from that, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to downplay the hype for another rate hike come February.
On Wednesday, traders turn their attention to Australia’s third quarter GDP. Their economy probably expanded by 0.4% during the quarter, bringing the annualized growth rate to 0.7%. Continued strength of the Australian economy could keep driving the Aussie higher.
No other economic reports are due for the rest of the week but these two high-impact reports that I discussed could dictate the direction of the AUDUSD for the entire week.
Price action for the AUDUSD was a little flat as well yesterday. The pair, though, managed to sport some gains. The AUDUSD closed at 0.9168 from 0.9110.
Higher yielding assets like the AUD fared better yesterday over the relatively safer USD and JPY because of the news that Dubai World, which earlier stated its intention to freeze its debt payments, got some credit worth $10 billion from Abu Dhabi.
Earlier today, data on Australia’s housing starts during the third quarter was released. The number of new residential buildings that began construction during the period surged by 9.4%, better than the 6.4% estimate. The Aussie, however, still lost some support following the release. Traders could have sold on news given the building permits data which is released on a monthly basis.
On a separate note, the RBA just published the minutes of its recent monetary meeting. In the report, the RBA said that it will have to increase the interest rate further as the Australian economy improves. Remember that the RBA already made a hike for the past three periods. The central bank’s interest rate currently stands at 3.75%. With a robust domestic consumption, led by the country’s housing sector, plus a growing export demand from China and India, the RBA sees a very sustainable growth for the country.
A possible rate hike on February would of course be bullish on the AUD unless it is sold on news.
The Aussie took a major hit yesterday, falling more than a hundred pips from its Asian open price. After hitting a high of 0.9174, the Aussie remained well-sold throughout the day, closing the US session at 0.9059.
Australia’s GDP report just released seems to agree with the Aussie bears. The GDP report showed that Australia’s economy grew only 0.2% during the third quarter, half the 0.4% gain initially expected. The lower-than-expected figure is putting even more selling pressures on the Aussie. If this kind of selling momentum keeps up, the Aussie could burst through support at the 0.8950-0.9000 region.
No high-profile economic reports from Australia today so the Aussie’s price action would be largely dependent on the FOMC interest rate decision later in the day. Forex Gump did a short article on the event, so head on over to his blog if you want more information.
The Aussie hit the canvas once again and barely made the 8 count in yesterdays trading round. Most of the movement came early in the day, when the GDP report came out worse than expected, causing traders to sell the AUD. Ultimately, the AUDUSD pair closed at 0.9007.
It seems that with traders are taking the FOMC positively, which in the past could have been bullish for higher yielding currencies like the AUD. However, the last few weeks have taken a sudden shift as we end the year – good US data has led to bullish USD movement. Is this a case of fundamentals driving the market now? Or merely traders unwinding their short USD trades that were made during the past 9 months?
Nothing on deck for Australia for the rest of the week, so we could see more range bound movement. Look out for the unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index from the US. If these come out better than expected, it may boost the USD, leaving higher yielding currencies like the AUD out to dry.
Down, down, down… That’s pretty much where the Aussie’s been headed for the past 24 hours. Heck, it’s been tumbling down for almost an entire week already! With the lack of high-impact Australian economic reports, the Aussie gave way to US dollar strength in a jiffy.
The AUDUSD has been breaking one support level after another as it took a sharp dive from the 0.9200 area at the beginning of the week and reached an intraday low of 0.8870 yesterday. My buddy, Forex Gump, has an interesting take on the probable demise of the Aussie and you can read about that here.
No economic reports are on deck for Australia until the end of the week. This could mean that the US dollar would continue to trample on the Aussie as the week draws to a close. Ouch!
Whew! The Aussie was able to recover some of its Thursday losses against the dollar to conclude last week’s trading. The AUDUSD fell to a low of 0.8811 before closing higher at 0.8907.
Australia’s economic calendar was report-free last Friday. Though, better-than –expected earnings results from US firms like Nike, Accenture, Oracle, and Research in Motion helped keep buying interests in the US capitals markets which incidentally benefited the likes of the AUD as well. Still, the US equities markets together with the Aussie were down for the week.
No economic reports are due in Australia this week. The Aussie could stay range-bound until after the Christmas holiday given the lack of economic flows.
The Aussie began the week on a sour note as it fell almost 100 pips from its Asian open price. It looks like the 0.8600 handle isn’t too far away for the Aussie, especially since the dollar has been showing a lot of strength in the past couple weeks.
Just released was Australia’s CB leading index for October. The report, which is designed to predict whether the economy is improving or not, printed a reading of -0.3%, lower than September’s revised down reading of 0.0%… Heh, it seems like nothing’s going right with the Aussie.
As I said in my update yesterday, no highly important economic data coming out of Australia this week so we could see the Aussie stay range-bound ahead the holidays.
Another down day for the Aussie, as it succumbed to USD buying pressure in yesterday’s trading sessions. The AUDUSD pair closed at 0.8762 and is now approaching potential resistance turned support. The question is, will it hold?
The AUD has been hit by falling gold prices, which is now trading at around $1,086 an ounce. With no economic reports coming out to help support the AUD, we could see more of the same slow but steady dollar buying that’s been happening the past couple of days. Watch out for news from the US, more specifically the new home sales report, which could buoy USD sentiment once again.
Staging a comeback during the Christmas holidays, the Aussie capped its losses against the greenback and rallied towards the 0.8850 area last week. No economic reports were released from Australia then but the rebound in commodity prices may have provided a boost for the Aussie.
This week, Australia’s economic calendar is pretty much barren, with the exception of the private sector credit data due on Thursday. The report could show that the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses rose by 0.1% in November. Watch out for the actual figure due 12:30 am GMT.
Other than that, the coast is clear for the Aussie. With greenback strength seen to dominate for the rest of 2009, the Aussie could sink down under with no economic reports to boost its appeal. Then again, we could be in for a few more surprises just before the New Year kicks off so stay on your toes!
After several days of falling, the AUD rallied against the dollar to end the year 2009 on a positive note. Will the AUD be able to sustain this run to start the new year?
Later at 5:30 am GMT, Australia’s y/y commodity prices will be released. Prices fell by 25.3% in October. With commodities making up over 50% of the country’s export earnings, a similar drop in prices could dampen the value of Australia’s total exports. Note that the account is used as a leading indicator of Australia’s trade balance which will be issued later this week.
Tomorrow (January 5), data on HIA new home sales for the month of November will be reported. The time of release is, however, tentative. Anyway, sales have been declining for the last three reported months with sales dropping by 6% in October. Another slide would reflect negatively at least on Australia’s housing sector and on the AUD.
A couple of top tier economic releases are scheduled on January 6 – November retail sales, and building approvals. The number of new building approvals issued is expected to have risen by 3.1% in November after falling by 0.6% during the month prior. Australia’s retail sales, on the other hand, are also seen to have outpaced October’s 0.3% gain with a 0.4% expansion in November.
Australia’s trade balance will be published on January 6 as well. The country’s trade deficit is projected to have improved to –A$1.79 billion from –A$2.38 billion. Though, we could already see a sneak preview of this account today depending on the change in commodity prices.
The Aussie, helped by risk appetite and the rising price of gold, staged a furious rally yesterday. From its Asian open price of 0.8976, it soared almost 150 pips, closing out the US trading session 0.9126.
Australia’s y/y commodity prices released yesterday showed that prices fell 16.6% in November, lower than the 24.4% decline (revised down from 25.3%) seen in October. Although still in the negative territory, the pace of decline has consistently slowed in the last couple of months. Given the “improvement” in commodity prices, will we see Australia’s trade balance to be released later in the week get better too?
The [HIA new home sales](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Housing_Industry_Association_New_Home_Sales) shared the same optimistic tune as it showed that prices picked up 0.3% in November. This was certainly a welcome improvement from the huge 6.0% drop in home sales seen the month before….
Like I mentioned in my New Zealand report, it seems that risk appetite is back in play as positive readings from manufacturing data from US and China managed to boost demand for the Aussie and other high-yielding currencies.
No highly important economic report due today but do expect the report on Australian Building Approvals tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT to cause some ruckus in the forex market. The expectation is that approvals grew 3.1% November-on-October. If the actual figures come in higher than consensus, we could see the Aussie find further buying support.
The Aussie bulls attempted to take the AUD to new highs yesterday, hitting as high as 0.9175 before cooling off. The pair eventually closed lower at 0.9126. Could this be the end of the recent AUD bullish run? Or will traders take this as an opportunity to buy the AUD at a cheaper price?
Early today, building approvals data was made available at 12:30 am GMT. The report showed that building permits rose by 5.9%, beating expectations of a 3.1% rise. This is a good sign for Australian housing sector, as permits are an indicator of future construction activity. In addition, this hints that the RBA was right in raising interests for three months running. As the housing market continues to improve, the need for lower interest rates decreases.
Tomorrow will be a busy day on the Australian front, as retail sales and trade balance data will be released at 12:30 am GMT. Retail sales are projected to have risen by 0.4% during the month of November. Traders look at this report because it is a signal of consumer spending. The trade balance report is expected to show that the trade deficit has shrunk from A$2.38 billion to A$1.79 billion, indicating that more goods were exported than imported in November.
After consolidating for a bit, the AUDUSD zoomed up during the latter half of the US session after the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. The Aussie was also able to benefit from the surge in November building approvals and the commodity price rallies.
Australian building permits rebounded by 5.9% in November, ahead of the expected 3.1% increase. This report reinforced the bullish sentiment for the Australian economy and their currency, keeping the AUDUSD safely above the 0.9100 mark.
Today, Australia just released their retail sales report and trade balance data. Retail sales grew by 1.4% in November, much higher than the consensus of a 0.4% increase. The November reading is also a large improvement over October’s 0.4% uptick in retail sales. Meanwhile, Australia’s trade deficit reportedly narrowed from 2.08 billion AUD to 1.70 billion AUD in November.
Later on, Australia will release its AIG construction index at 10:30 pm GMT. The index stood at 47.6 in November, indicating that the construction industry contracted then. Although the report is slated to have a minimal effect on the AUD, a reading above 50.0 could add to the bullish bias for the currency.
The Aussie continued its awesome run against the yen in yesterday’s session. Presently, the AUDJPY is trading on a new 15-month high!
The Aussie resumed its rise following a better-than-expected retail sales and trade balance figures. Retail sales jumped by 1.4% in November due to a strong demand for clothing, household goods, and food. Clothing sales rose by 2.5% while sales of household goods expanded by 1.7%. Food sales, on the other hand, also increased by 1.6% during the period.
On a separate account, Australia’s trade balance showed an upbeat figure as well. The country’s trade deficit came in at –A$170 billion, better than the –A$179 billion consensus. Australia’s improving trade gap adds to signs that China’s demand for raw materials such as iron ore and coal would continue to bolster Australia’s exports over the next periods. The increase in demand for raw materials, however, is also prompting the mining companies to import more mining equipments.
The positive figures above also add to the possibility of another rate hike on February 2.
No economic reports are due today in Australia. Given this, the Aussie may take a breather today before it resumes its upward movement. Don’t get too lax, though, as volatility might still ensue later with the release of the US NFP report.
Thanks to the ugly data from the US, the Aussie was able to get a leg up on the greenback last Friday. The Aussie traded sideways during the Asian session but instantly flew almost 100 pips when disappointing results from the US non-farm payrolls came out.
The US non-farm payrolls report, which was expected to show that only 3,000 net jobs were lost in December, printed 85,000 net job losses instead. Meanwhile, joblessness in the US remained at 10.0% for the second month in a row as the labor force got smaller. Remember, when unemployed people looking for jobs STOP looking for jobs because of laziness, depression or whatever reason you can think of they are excluded from the count.
No significant economic data today from Australia but looking ahead the week, we’ve got a couple of important releases that could cause some serious Aussie movement.
First up is the report on Home Loans for November at 1:30 am GMT tomorrow. This report measures the month-on-month change in the number of new loans approved. Increasing home loans is usually seen as bullish for the currency because it indicates that there are a good number of financially capable people in Australia’s economy. Home loans are predicted to have decreased 0.4% in November, which, if holds, is an improvement of the 1.4% decline seen in October.
More importantly, at 1:30 am GMT on Thursday, data on Australia’s labor market will be released. The employment change section, which measures the net monthly change of employed people, is predicted to show a net increase of 10,200 in December. During the same month, however, the unemployment rate of the country is expected have edged up to 5.8% from 5.7% the month before as the number of people who entered the labor market surpassed job creation. If any of this data comes out better than expected (especially the employment change), we would probably see the Aussie be bought up.
The Aussie dollar benefited from a nice price gap over the weekend, giving it the boost to stay ahead in yesterdays trading battle. The AUD finished up at 0.9316 and looked poised to test its 2009 highs…
That was of course, before the home loans report was released earlier this morning. Home loan approvals fell by 5.6% in November, its biggest drop in 18 months. Yikes! Could this be a side effect of the RBA’s decision to raise interest rates late last year? Well if that is truly the case, we may just see home loans dip once again in December. Seeing as how the Aussie has dropped since this mornings report, if we continue to see poor data from the housing sector, it could lead to some bearish sentiment towards the AUD.
No data on deck today, but Australian employment data will be available on Thursday at 12:30 am GMT. It is projected that the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 5.8% despite forecasts estimating that 10,200 jobs were added to the economy this past December.
The Aussie fell down under yesterday as commodity prices dipped. Adding to the selling pressure for the Aussie was the disappointing Australian home loans report, which pushed the AUDUSD to a low of 0.9206.
Home loans in Australia surprisingly plummeted by 5.6% in November, way below the consensus of a 1.2% decline. This massive drop in home loans was most likely a result of RBA’s withdrawal from their easing policies by hiking interest rates and the Australian government’s slashing grants to first-time home buyers. Some economists expect further weakness in Australia’s housing market even as the home loans indicator stands at its lowest level in 18 months.
No economic reports are due from Australia today, leaving the AUDUSD at the mercy of commodity prices and economic reports from the US. Australia’s next economic report, its employment change data, is set for release tomorrow 12:30 am GMT. An upbeat employment report could provide the boost that the Aussie needs.
After tumbling sharply the other day against the yen and the dollar, the Aussie was able to recover some of its losses and keep itself back on the game in yesterday’s trading. The AUDJPY reached a high of 84.74 before closing slightly lower at 84.52. The AUDUSD also bounced to a high of 0.9269 before ending at 0.9243.
No economic reports were due in Australia yesterday. The Aussie was able to hold its ground due to the resurgence of risk appetite in the US equities markets.
Earlier today, Australia’s December employment change and jobless rate were released. Australian employers added another 35,200 workers in December, topping the 10,200 consensus. During the last four months, the country has added about 135,000, causing its jobless rate to improve to 5.5% from 5.6%. The recent strength of Australia’s labor market as evidenced in the latest accounts fueled some speculations that the RBA could hike its interest rate again in February. Of course, the Aussie soared following the upbeat results.
In the mean time, the 0.4% expected gain in the US headline retail sales in December, which will be released later at 1:30 pm GMT, could further carry the Aussie upwards.
Thanks to the stellar results on Australia’s employment situation report, the Aussie managed to stage a magnificent rally and test this year’s highs yesterday. The Aussie found itself at .9312 by the end of the US trading session, 70 pips higher from its Asian open price.
Its employment change for December revealed that 35,200 net jobs were added, more than triple the 10,200 gain initially expected. Meanwhile, joblessness in the country for the same period eased to 5.5% from 5.6% in November. This drove currency traders to speculate that the bank would continue to raise rates throughout 2010.
Australia’s economic cupboard will be empty so the Aussie’s price action will probably be dictated by the upcoming US CPI. If the US CPI comes out worse-than-expected, we could finally see the Aussie break major resistance at .9326, this year’s high.