What a way to end September! After experiencing a three-day slide against its southern neighbor, the Loonie fought back against the Greenback to force USDCAD lower. The pair dipped from its opening price of 1.0340 to reach a low of 1.0231 before it finally took a chill pill and rested at 1.0289.
Talk about overcoming adversity! The Loonie had to hurdle over a 0.1% decrease in GDP in July to overcome the Greenback. Though analysts were right on the money when they predicted a 0.1% decline after seeing a 0.2% uptick in June, the latest results are still a bit disappointing since it marks the first GDP contraction in 11 months.
It looks like the BOC will have even less reason to hike rates in 2010 since Canada is still battling anemic domestic demand and a growing trade deficit. But BOC Governor Carney refuses to feel overly pessimistic over this. In his speech yesterday, he said he expects the economy to continue chugging along, but at a modest pace. Way to look on the bright side!
No more reports from Canada today. For now, keep an eye on risk sentiment and oil prices, since they can move the Loonie in the absence of any reports. You can also check out what the US has in store for us as they’re set to publish a few headliners of their own.
No mercy! The Loonie was simply ruthless against its American counterpart last Friday. For the second day in a row, forex geeks chose the Loonie over the Greenback as USDCAD ended 87 pips lower at 1.0202.
It seems like no one wants the Greenback these days. They dumped it for the Loonie even though Canada didn’t release any reports.
Don’t fret, my forex bros. Canada plans to make up for it this week.
The action starts on Wednesday when the Ivey PMI report comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. Investors like to keep an eye on this one because it gives a good idea of the general health of various industries in Canada. Back in August, the report printed a reading of 65.90. But most analysts say we’ll probably see this fall to just 62.00 in September.
Then on Thursday, we take a look at Canada’s building permits report, which is expected to show a 2% decline after July recorded a 3.3% drop. Keep tabs on this one, folks. Since it measures the change in the number and value of new building projects for construction, it’s a good indication of future growth and activity in the construction industry. That being the case, higher results are usually bullish for the currency. Tune in at 12:30 pm GMT to catch the report.
Capping the week off on Friday, we have Canada’s employment figures at 11:00 am GMT. Analysts say we should expect to see a net increase in employment of 10,000 in September after August posted a 35,800 uptick. If they’re right about this, it should help bring down the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 8.0%, just as they predicted.
A few hours after that, we should be seeing the housing starts numbers for September. The annualized number of new houses that began construction is expected to have cooled down from 183,300 to 179,500.
With so many hard-hitters lined up for the week, will we finally see USDCAD bust out of its range?
The Loonie got as much thumbs downs in yesterday’s trading as Tyra Banks did when she wore a fishnet stocking over her face. Ha! USD/CAD ended the day 25 pips higher at 1.0221, after bottoming at 1.0180.
With no economic hollers from Canada yesterday, the Loonie was left vulnerable to the dollar’s strength. But don’t fret! Tomorrow we have the high-caliber Ivey PMI report at 2:00 pm GMT which will most probably rock the Loonie’s path on the charts. Analysts are bracing to see that manufacturing activity slowed in September with the forecast down to 62.0 from its 65.9 reading in August.
For today, we have BOC Senior Deputy Governor Macklem’s speech entitled “Reflections on Monetary Policy After the Great Recession” at 5:00 pm GMT. You may want to tune in to that as he might drop some hints about the bank’s future policy decisions.
“It’s my turn!” screamed the Loonie as it arose victorious against the USD yesterday. It managed to bounce back from its loss to the USD at the start of the week to push USD/CAD lower. At the end of the day, the pair closed 48 pips lower at 1.0173.
No reports were released from Canada but USD weakness helped make the Loonie more attractive to investors. In addition to that, rising commodity prices also gave it a boost. Com doll power!
In other news, BOC Senior Deputy Governor Tim Macklem sided with the US and predicted bad things to come for the global economy is China doesn’t allow the yuan to appreciate enough. He also expressed concern over the possibility of QE part 2 in the U.S. Don’t forget, the US is Canada’s largest trade partner, so any economic changes in the U.S. may have a heavy impact on Canada as well.
Today, Canada is scheduled to roll out its Ivey PMI report. Analysts weren’t feeling September’s performance as much as they did August’s and say the report will likely record a drop from 65.9 to 62. Still, this decline isn’t as bad as you would think. After all, it’s still well above a reading of 50, which is indicative of expansion. Tune in at 2:00 pm GMT to see the actual results!
Throw your hands in the air and wave ‘em like you just don’t care if you’re rooting for the Loonie! All it needed to forge a new 5-month high against the Greenback was a positive Ivey PMI report. USD/CAD plummeted 64 pips for the day to finish at 1.0109 after it had hit an intraday low of 1.0063.
Yesterday’s release of the September Ivey PMI sent the Loonie less than a penny away from reaching parity with the Greenback. Analysts crunched some numbers and said last month would earn a reading of 62 after seeing a 65.9 in August. However, results came in much better than expected as last month’s performance earned a reading of 70.3. As an important measure of business sentiment, the report recorded its second straight uptick, providing further evidence that things are picking up in Canada.
Canada is releasing another potential market-mover today. Its building permits report is scheduled to hit the stands at 12:30 pm GMT. The number of new building projects authorized for construction is anticipated to fall another 2.0% in August following the 3.3% drop in July. Since the report reflects growth in the construction industry, you ought to stay on your toes and be ready for a Loonie rally just in case results come in better than expected.
The Loonie’s gains against the dollar disappeared like honeybees on a rainy day during the New York session. USD/CAD hit rock-bottom at 1.0078 during yesterday’s trading, before it soared to its intraday high at 1.0212. It then ended Thursday at 1.0186 with the Loonie nursing a 78-pip loss against the dollar. So, what’s the buzz?
Well, aside from investors locking in profits ahead of the [NFP](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Employment_Report) report, there was also the bad figures from the country’s construction sector. The number of new building projects authorized for construction in August fell by a whopping 9.2%! This might have ticked off a few Loonie bulls because the forecast was a softer decline at 2.0% following July’s -3.8% reading.
I wonder if the com-doll will get a boost from the economic hollers we have on tap for it today. At 11:00 am GMT, market participants are expecting to see the labor market to have added a net total of 10,000 workers in September while the rate of joblessness projected to have remained at 8.1%. Then just minutes before the NFP at 12:15 pm GMT, we’ll get a sneak peek on the country’s housing market. Analysts are anticipating to see that 179,000 residential buildings started construction in September.
If you’re planning to go long on the Loonie, you better keep your fingers crossed for better-than-expected figures as these may be bullish for the currency.
That’s all folks! Be extra-careful with your trades today, aight?
Thanks to the contrasting results between the data from Canada and the U.S., the Loonie was able to post some sweet gains over the Greenback last Friday. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0113, down 65 pips from its opening price in the Asian session.
The number of Canadian housing starts in September, which was initially expected to be 186,400 (annualized), was actually 186,000. In addition, the unemployment report covering the same period showed that joblessness fell to 8.0% from 8.1% the previous month.
Not all news was good though. The Canadian unemployment change revealed that companies shed a net number of 6,600 versus the 10,000 gain expected.
While the positive data helped the Loonie last Friday, it also lowered the possibility of a rate hike from the BOC in its next meeting.
With Canadian banks on holiday mode, the economic calendar presents very little event risk. Do still be careful though, as the low level of liquidity could cause some sudden spikes in volatility. You don’t want to get whipsawed!
What a boring day it was for the Loonie yesterday! With most traders out on holiday, USD/CAD found no reason to move. The pair only managed to crawl up to 1.0138, just 40 pips higher from its week open price.
Hmmm, with no real economic catalyst on Canada’s economic calendar again, today’s trading sessions could prove to be another boring one. But, as I’ve said yesterday, do be careful! Thin liquidity means price is susceptible to sudden volatility spikes, which could lead to massive whipsaws.
The market will probably be back in full swing tomorrow, when traders come out of their long holiday and high-profile economic reports start coming in. Hope you can stay awake till then. Hah!
Volatility will probably return tomorrow, when traders come out of their long holiday and Canada releases its report on house prices.
“Greenback’s got nothing on you Loonie,” sang traders yesterday as the com-doll pared most of the pips it lost on Monday against its counterpart. After hitting an intraday high of 1.0184, USD/CAD went on a downtrend and ended the day 31 pips lower at 1.0107, just a few pips above the week open price.
Without any economic reports to tune in to, both bulls and bears were all ears for Finance Minister Flaherty’s speech yesterday. Lucky for the Loonie, the market found the official’s remarks positive enough when he said that Canada is in no need of stimulus. Boo yeah!
However, Flaherty also expressed concern for Canada’s economic growth. Yikes! He said that he and his homies will keep a close eye on how the economy behaves. So I think would be wise for us to do the same, starting with the house price index for August which is due later at 12:30 pm GMT.
The market is bracing for a second month of decline in house prices with the forecast still down at -0.1%. If you plan on betting your pips on the Loonie, you may want to keep your fingers crossed for the actual figure to come in higher than the consensus, as this would imply that Canada’s housing industry is A-okay!
“But I won’t stop until those pips are mine… papa-paparity,” sang the Loonie yesterday as it tapped its six-month high against the dollar at 1.0012. USD/CAD found some support at its intraday low and bounced a little to end the day at 1.0048, giving the Loonie a 59-pip gain.
Thanks to a better-than-expected economic report, the com-doll was able to continue on its advances against the dollar. Boo yeah! Statistics Canada reported yesterday that house prices increased by 0.1% in August which might have been a pleasant surprise to some as analysts advised the market to brace for a 0.1% decline.
I have a feeling that if the trade balance report for August impresses traders later at 12:30 pm GMT, there’s a good chance that the Loonie will be able to strut its swagger even past parity! Take note that analysts are expecting to see that imports outpaced exports by 2.3 billion CAD during the month. May the pips be with ya!
And USD/CAD hits parity again! Fortunately, the Loonie’s was short-lived, as traders bought up USD/CAD quickly after seeing it go under the 1.0000 handle. The pair ended the U.S. trading session at 1.0049, just 11 pips lower from its Asian session opening price.
Apparently, the better-than-expected results on the Canadian trade balance was enough to whet traders’ appetite for the Loonie. The report showed that exports to the U.S. rose during September unexpectedly rose, which caused the country’s trade deficit for August to shrink to 1.3 billion CAD from 2.7 billion CAD July. In addition, the figure was lower than the 2.3 billion CAD deficit initially predicted.
No major data coming out from Canada today, but still do watch out for its manufacturing sales report. It is expected to print a 0.5% rise in sales for September, opposite the 0.9% decline seen the month before. If the number comes out off-target, we may see the Loonie move… I wouldn’t bet on any major moves though, as this report isn’t heavily monitored by traders.
The Loonie showed the market why it’s nicknamed after a flightless bird during Friday’s trading when it gave up 59 pips to the dollar. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0105, ending the Loonie’s 6-week winning streak. Tsk, tsk.
Too bad for the com-doll, better-than-expected figures we saw weren’t enough to convince traders to show it some love. Statistics Canada reported that manufacturing sales for August grew by 2.0%, beating its 0.5% forecast and erasing the 1.1% decline it posted in July. There was also motor vehicle sales report for the same month which showed a softer decline at 4.8% than what the market was bracing for at 5.0%.
We’re in for a treat this week with a handful of high-caliber reports for the Loonie and we’ll kick start things tomorrow with the BOC’s interest rate announcement at 1:00 pm GMT. A lot of my buds in the FX hood are not keeping their hopes up for another hike given that consumer spending and employment have both declined since the last rate announcement.
Then on Wednesday the central bank will release its Monetary Policy report along with BOC Governor Mark Carney’s speech. For that, you may want to keep an ear out for hawkish mumbo-jumbo if you want to place your bets on the com-doll. We’ll then end week with the CPI reports for September and retail sales report for August on Friday.
Happy trading everyone!
Too bad the Loonie’s pips during yesterday’s trading weren’t as sweet as Canada’s maple syrup. USD/CAD traded higher yesterday, peaking at 1.0228 before it closed the day at 1.0141, with the Loonie sustaining a 20-pip loss.
It looks like the Loonie won’t be getting any love from traders until after the [BOC](http://http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/BOC) interest rate decision which is due later at 1:00 pm GMT. After three consecutive hikes, most of my buds here in the FX hood are expecting to hear the BOC holler a pause. Some are even bracing for dovish remarks from BOC Governor [Mark Carney](http://http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Mark_Carney) given that both [employment](http://http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Net_Change_in_Employment_-_Canada) and [retail sales](http://http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Retail_Sales_-_Canada) have been lower since the last rate announcement. Uh oh...
Make sure you don’t miss the rate decision and note that Carney is also giving a press conference along with the release of the Monetary Policy report at 2:30 pm GMT. May the pips be with ya!
“[I]Mayday, mayday, mayday…Position 178 pips north of yesterday’s open price… The Loonie is sinking.[/I]” The bulls were distressed over the Loonie’s dive in the pip charts yesterday as Canada was hit by a combo of dollar strength and Loonie weakness. USD/CAD soared to an intraday high of 1.0374 before leveling off to its 1.0319 closing price.
With the dovishness of yesterday’s economic reports, who could blame the currency bears for snacking on the Loonie? Not only did the Bank of Canadadecide to keep its interest rates at 1.00% yesterday, it also lowered its 2010 growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.0%. Uh-oh, is the lack of growth in the US, Canada’s largest trading partner, weighing on the Canadian economy?
Maybe the BOC monetary policy report today at 2:30 pm GMT could tell us more about the BOC’s economic outlook.
The wholesale sales for August will also be released today at 12:30 pm GMT, and a figure higher than the expected 0.5% rise in sales could provide the Loonie some relief.
Keep your eyes glued to the tube yo!
After losing for three straight days, the Loonie bulls decided that they had enough of just sitting back and letting the bears trample all over them. USD/CAD fell to 1.0222 by the end of the U.S. trading session, 130 pips lower from its Asian session opening price. Was the upmove we saw the past three days simply a retracement of the overall downtrend? Hah, that’s what it seems like!
Apparently, risk appetite from positive corporate earnings and the overall sentiment that the Fed will engage in another round of quantitative easing were the primary culprits in USD/CAD’s decline. Traders turned their “risk” on and started dumping the Greenback in favor of higher-yielding currencies like the Loonie.
Canada’s wholesales report also helped. It revealed that sales grew 1.2% in August, more than double the 0.5% increase initially predicted and a huge improvement from the previous month’s flat reading.
Not everything was rainbows and sunshine though. The BOC monetary policy report that was released yesterday showed that the bank has lowered its growth forecast for the upcoming quarters as currency tensions and global trade imbalance continue to get worse. It also provided no hint of another rate hike, which could cap the Loonie’s rally.
For today, the data to keep an eye out for is Canada’s leading index at 12:30 pm GMT. A 0.2% reading is expected for September, which is slightly lower than August’s 0.5%. The leading index tries to predict the direction of Canada’s economy, so falling figures mean that growth in the country is expected to slow down. If the actual comes out higher, we may see the Loonie climb higher against the Greenback again.
“We’re going down, down, in an earlier round. And com-dolls we’re going down swingin’,” sang the Loonie as it joined its homies in the bear lair. It was able to drive USD/CAD to an intraday low of 1.0168 before it lost its ground to the dollar and ended the day with a 43-pip loss. Drats!
So what caused the Loonie’s boo-boo on the charts? Naysayers point to the worse-than-expected leading index for September which tumbled to -0.1% when the market had been expecting the composite index based on ten economic indicators to cite a 0.2% growth rate for the month.
This might have upset a few Loonie bulls as the decline (which is the first one since April 2009) confirms talks that the [BOC](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/BOC)won’t give another rate hike shoutout this year. Yikes!
If today’s economic reports disappoint the market, then we may just see the Loonie continue to chill with the bears for some time. At 12:00 pm GMT, we’ll have the official [inflation](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Inflation) report for September. The headline [CPI](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/CPI) figure is anticipated to come in at 0.1% while the Core CPI is seen at 0.3%. Then at 1:30 pm GMT, analysts are expecting to see that [retail sales](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Retail_Sales) declined by 0.1% in August.
May the pips be with y’all! Peace out!
The Loonie was wrestling for pips against the dollar last Friday with USD/CAD falling to an intraday low of 1.0224 right after tapping a high of 1.0303. Too bad for the com-doll, it didn’t have enough swagger left to end the day with a win as USD/CAD closed 6 pips higher at 1.0270. Drats!
Better-than-expected consumer spending and [inflation](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Inflation) reports might have helped the Loonie hustle against the dollar. Statistics Canada reported that [CPI](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/CPI) was at 0.2% in September which was 0.1% higher than what the market was anticipating. On the other hand, the core rate which excludes volatile items only printed at 0.2% and fell short of the 0.3% forecast.
Retail salesalso came in as a pleasant surprise at 0.5% for August which beat the 0.1% decline that analysts were bracing for.
Some of our buds here in the FX hood say that the currency’s loss might have been because the BOC’s pessimism on the country’s economic outlook. Uh oh…
Our awesome [economic calendar](http://www.babypips.com/tools/forex-calendar/) shows that we’re in for a snoozefest for the Loonie until Friday when the [GDP](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Gross_Domestic_Product_%28GDP%29) report for August is released. Analysts are expecting to see that the economy expanded by 0.3% during the said month, erasing the 0.1% decline it posted in August.
And so, it may be wise to get a feel of the market’s sentiment in trading the Loonie as the lack of economic reports may leave currency vulnerable to market’s mood swings. Good luck y’all!
Score another one for the comdoll connection! Like the other commodity-related currencies, the Loonie gained against the dollar after the dollar-bearish sentiments from the G20 meeting and Goldman Sachs estimates. USD/CAD dropped to an intraday low of 1.0155 before leveling off 53 pips lower than its open price at 1.0203.
The boards were empty yesterday, but Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney will make things interesting at 7:30 pm GMT when he gives his speech before the Standing Committee on Finance in Ottawa.
Don’t even think of missing all the action!
The Loonie practically erased its gains against the Greenback from Monday as the American currency beefed up and pushed USD/CAD higher yesterday. The Loonie hardly put up a fight! The lack of reports from Canada allowed USD/CAD to finish at 1.0240, up 36 pips for the day.
Unfortunately, the Loonie couldn’t find support from commodities either. Moves in the commodities markets remained weak yesterday and couldn’t give bulls what they needed.
Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. FOMC statement next week seems to be taking its toll on the Loonie as well. Remember, the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner. Since the two are practically joined at the hip, what affects the U.S. usually has a great impact on Canada, too.
In other news, BOC Governor Mark Carney took center stage and spoke before the Finance Committee of the House of Commons. He sounded particularly concerned about Canada’s labor productivity, saying that it is woefully low. He also said that even though the economy has been faring better than most advanced countries, he’s expecting business investment to take over and fuel economic growth as consumer spending is expected to weaken in the coming years.
Today, we’ll hear more about what Carney has to say about the economy when he speaks at 8:15 pm GMT. This guy just loves the spotlight, doesn’t he?! Maybe he’ll give us something new to chew on and drop hints about future policy moves. Stay glued to the tube, brah!
Yeouch! The Loonie lost against its major counterparts yesterday despite the absence of economic reports in Canada. USD/CAD rose to an intraday high of 1.0340 before leveling off 47 pips higher than its open price at 1.0288. Meanwhile, CAD/JPY plunged to an intraday low of 78.94 before ending the day at 79.42.
Is it because investors agree with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney? In his speech before the Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce, Carney relayed his concerns over the economy’s exports. Apparently, weak demand from the U.S., its largest trading partner, and a strong Loonie are making exporters skittish over the Canadian economy. Uh-oh.
The boards are still empty in Canada today, but keep your eyes peeled for any reports that might influence comdoll trading!