I hope you guys were able to get long on the Loonie yesterday because that thing zoomed up like a rocket! The Loonie hit a new 3-year high against the dollar as Canada’s GDP sent bulls on a buying frenzy. At the end of the day, USD/CAD finished 76 pips lower at .9715.
BOOM BOOM POW! Canada’s economy seems to be booming according to the latest GDP tally. In spite of bad winter weather, its GDP grew more than expected in December, recording a 0.5% expansion to exceed forecasts for a 0.3% growth. This brings Q4’s annualized growth to 3.3%. Not bad, not bad at all!
The economy’s star performer was the exports industry, which accounted for 32% of the economy back in 2009. It posted a solid 4.0% growth in Q4 2010, the strongest growth in 6 years!
Unfortunately, even with its record-breaking growth, it was unable to bring the current account deficit down to match forecasts. The deficit only shrank from 17.0 billion CAD to 11.0 billion CAD, and not to 9.4 billion CAD as most had anticipated.
Still, overall, we can’t deny that these numbers are awesome. But don’t expect the BOC to act on it later today when it makes its rate statement at 2:00 pm GMT. The BOC had already hinted at the possibility of stronger-than-expected growth, so this may not be such a big surprise to the central bank. Aside from that, they will probably not want to boost the Loonie any further with excessively hawkish comments.
Nevertheless, it would be wise for you to tune in when the rate announcement is made. The BOC might just drop hints as to when we should expect to see rate hikes!
With risk appetite rampant in the markets, the Loonie was able to hold its ground versus the dollar in yesterday’s trading. After hitting an intraday high of .9776, USD/CAD dropped during the New York session to finish the day at .9725, closing 25 pips lower from its opening price.
The only data to be released from Canada yesterday was the raw materials price index (RMPI). The data revealed that raw material input prices for manufacturers only rose by 0.3% last month, indicating that inflationary concerns are subdued.
One potential reason why prices didn’t rise too much is the strength of the Loonie. With the Canadian dollar on a impressive tear, Canadian manufacturers essentially have more purchasing power, which helped offset the rise in commodity prices.
Looking at our economic calendar, we got no biggies on the docket today. Still, be on your toes as you never know what news may rock the markets.
Can you say snoozefest? With no data on deck, USD/CAD movement was tight, trading within a range of just 30 pips, with the pair eventually closing at its opening price at .9724.
The good news is that we’re getting some Canadian data to end the week in the form of the Ivey PMI report. After dropping below the baseline 50 mark for the first time in a year, the index is expected to climb back up and print at 50.6. I’m gonna be keeping an eye out for this figure, because if we see another disappointing figure, it might just force the Loonie to give back some of its recent gains versus the dollar.
The Loonie ended Friday’s trading almost unchanged against the dollar despite a stellar economic report. USD/CAD closed just 5 pips lower from its opening price at .9717. Hmmm, is the Loonie’s trip to the bulls’ turf coming to an end?
It was reported that the Ivey PMI for February surged to 69.3 after coming in at 41.4 in January. This should have been the ultimate piptorade for the Loonie given that the figure also topped the market’s 50.6 forecast, but no…
Some economic gurus say that perhaps the reason for the Loonie’s muted reaction is because it was the first time the report was adjusted take into consideration the weather and public holidays. Thus, a few naysayers somehow considered it not so reliable. Nonetheless, I think the stellar figure should give the BOC more swag for Canada’s economy.
See if the Loonie will be able to rally later today with the building permits report for January on tap at 1:30 pm GMT. Watch out for a figure higher than the 1.8% uptick that the market is expecting as this will probably be bullish for the currency.
Loonie bulls still seemed high on black crack during yesterday’s trading that not even negative data kept them from ending the day with a win! USD/CAD tumbled from its intraday high of .9744 to close three pips lower from its opening price at .9728.
Yesterday we saw that building permits went back on the red in January when the report printed a 5.1% decline. This might have disappointed a few traders because analysts had predicted a modest uptick of 1.3% to follow the 2.6% increase we saw in December.
But as we’ve seen in the past few weeks, rising oil prices continued to fuel the Loonie on the charts given Canada’s rep as one of the world’s top oil producers.
Take note though that it’s also not all good for the country as skyrocketing commodity prices threaten the growth in its largest trading partner, the United States of America.
And so, some economic gurus think that in order for USD/CAD to trade lower, we have to see more evidence that the domestic economy is strong enough to offset weaker demand from the U.S.
With that said, you should make sure that you don’t miss Canada’s housing starts report on tap later at 1:15 pm GMT. Analysts are expecting to see that the number of houses that started construction in February was 174,000 more than it was a year ago.
Watch out for a better-than-expected figure as this would probably be bullish for the Loonie! Remember that many regard building construction as a leading indicator of economic health. Good luck!
There’s no stopping this steamroller! Or should I say oil-roller? Hah! Aside from the persistent high oil prices, Canada printed a better-than-expected economic report yesterday, which dragged USD/CADlower for another day by 15 pips to its .9714 closing price.
Canada’s report on the number of new residential buildings that began construction revealed an increase of 182,000 in February. This is not only better than January’s 171,000 figure, but also higher than the expected 174,000 housing starts.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt that crude oil is still near at chart highs! While word on the pip streets is that Gadaffi is already considering his exit strategy, oil prices still refuse to budge significantly from its 29-month high position. If you’ve been reading the best forex education site, then you’ll know that higher oil prices are usually bullish for the oil-related Loonie.
Let’s see if the Loonie can keep the good vibes coming today when Canada releases its new housing price index at 1:30 pm GMT. Price of new houses inched up by 0.1% in December, but a higher number for January might provide the Loonie additional boost.
Stay on top of your trades today, fellas!
Before USD/CAD ended the day 27 pips lower from its opening price at .9687, it tapped a new three-year low at .9667! Yowza! The dollar just ain’t got nothin’ on you, Loonie!
Yesterday, the only report we had on tap was the New Housing Price index for January which came in as expected at 0.2%. But I have a feeling that with oil still above 100 USD per barrel, the Loonie was able to post a new high because bulls still haven’t gotten over their black crack high yet!
So for today, continue keeping tabs on the commodities markets. Remember that the Loonie usually benefits from high oil prices because Canada is one of the top producers of the commodity in the world.
Also tune in to the country’s trade balance report for January at 1:30 pm GMT. The consensus is for a narrower trade surplus of 2.5 billion CAD following December’s report which showed that exports outpaced imports by 3.0 billion CAD.
Watch out for a better-than-expected figure as this will most probably be bullish for the Loonie. Peace out y’all!
Screeeech! Bam! After tapping a three-year high against the dollar, the Loonie crashed and burned in the bear lair yesterday as risk aversion drove market sentiment. USD/CAD sped up all the way to its closing price of .9758 after opening at .9687.
Aside from risk aversion, there was also the worse-than-expected trade balance report from Canada that might have fueled the Loonie’s downfall.
It was reported that exports outpaced imports by a measly 100 million CAD in January and disappointed the forecast for a 2.5 billion CAD trade surplus. Making it even worse is that the reading for December was revised down to 1.7 billion CAD after a 3.0 billion trade surplus was initiall reported.
Yikes! Are these figures because the Loonie has gotten so strong? Remember that a strong currency usually makes a country’s exports less competitive.
If the employment figures for February also fail to impress markets, chances are we’re gonna see another bullish candle on the daily chart of USD/CAD to follow yesterday’s fat bullish marubozu.
Due at 12:00 pm GMT, analysts are expecting to see that the labor market added a net total of 26,200 people and the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 7.7% from January.
Whew! That was a close one! Despite printing worse-than-expected employment figures last Friday, the Loonie gained on the Greenback and closed USD/CAD 91 pips lower than its intraday high at .9711.
Canada’s job figures released last Friday revealed that only 15,100 workers found job in February when markets were expecting a total of 26,200 new employed workers. Meanwhile, its unemployment rate remained at 7.8% instead of dropping to 7.7% like investors expected.
We’ll see if Canada makes up for the red economic figures this week when a couple of economic reports are released. The week will start today at 12:30 pm GMT with Canada’s Capacity utilization rate report, followed by the labor productivity report tomorrow at 12:30 pm GMT.
On Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT we’ll see if Canada’s manufacturing sales print higher than December’s 0.4% growth, and on Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT we’ll also get hold of Canada’s wholesale sales report for January. Lastly, we’ll catch the big CPI report on Friday at 11:00 am GMT and see if prices in Canada have risen faster in February than it had in January this year.
Keep close tabs on these reports!
Despite crude oil hitting two weeks lows, we didn’t see much action in the Loonie, with USD/CAD pretty much staying within its daily range. USD/CAD closed just 5 pips higher for the day, closing at .9738.
Yesterday, a report revealed that Canadian manufacturers capacity utilization rate hit 76.4%. While this failed to hit initial estimates of 79.0%, it still marked the sixth consecutive quarter that capacity utilization has increased. This indicates that manufacturing activity is picking up, which bodes well for the Canadian economy as a whole.
For today, we’ve got labor productivity data coming out at 12:30 pm GMT. Labor productivity is seen to have picked up by 0.2% over the past quarter. Still, I highly doubt that anyone will be paying attention to that report, because everyone will be waiting for the…
U.S. FOMC STATEMENT!
That’s right boys and girls, the Fed will be making its interest rate decision today! You might wanna sit on the sidelines as this event leads to a lot of volatility! Be careful out here playaz!
“Get OWT of here!” said the Loonie bears, as the Canadian dollar took a hit in yesterday’s trading. Thanks to weaker commodity trading and general risk aversion, USD/CAD soared up the charts. After opening at .9738, the pair rose to a high of .9975 before cooling off to close at .9852, good for a 114 pip gain.
With all the turmoil in the markets, we saw a whole lot of risk aversion take place yesterday. Oil prices tumbled, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil dropping 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Remember, the Loonie is highly correlated to oil prices, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Canadian dollar struggled so much yesterday.
Lost in all the confusion were better than expected labor productivity figures, which showed that Canadian productivity rose by 0.5% last quarter. This was higher than the anticipated 0.3% increase.
Considering that the Canadian labor market has shown great progress over the past year and has recovered many of the jobs lost during the recession, I’m guessing that labor productivity will be more indicative of GDP growth as opposed to jobs growth. With that said, It’ll be interesting to see whether productivity continues to pick up over the next few quarters.
Hmmm… I wonder if the Loonie will bounce back today. Looking at our economic calendar, I see that manufacturing sales figures are coming out at 12:30 pm GMT. Expectations are that sales rose 1.0% last month, up from the 0.4% increase the month before. In the past, this report has generally failed to tickle traders’ funny bones, but if today’s report does print a much bigger figure, it could give the Loonie some support.
I guess Canada’s maple syrup wasn’t the only sweet treat for the currency bears! Despite a better-than-expected economic report from Canada, USD/CAD rose for the third day in a row yesterday. Heck, the pair even tipped to an intraday high of .9967 before calling it quits at .9911!
Yesterday a report revealed that manufacturing sales in Canada rose by 4.5% in January, up from December’s 0.6% rise and the highest since October 2008. Sales volume also rose by 5.5%, boosted by motor vehicle sales and aerospace industries.
While the report is good news though, traders were too busy worrying about issues in Japan and the Middle East to pay much attention. Continued risk aversion in markets pushed safe-haven currencies higher in the charts, which took a toll on the high-yielding Loonie.
Let’s see if markets pay any attention to Canada’s reports this time. At 12:30 pm GMT the purchases of foreign securities report will be released. A total of 9.63 billion CAD worth of securities were bought by foreigners last December, but a higher number for January might support the recent good news from the Canadian economy.
Also due at 12:30 pm GMT is the wholesales sales report. A number higher than December’s 0.8% growth might support the increase in manufacturing sales that was shown yesterday.
Stay sharp on your trades today!
Looks like someone deserves a high five and a fist bump! The Loonie hammered away at the Greenback yesterday when better-than-expected economic reports from Canada lined up with the easing of risk aversion in markets. After reaching an intraday high of .9952, USD/CAD capped the day 64 pips lower than its .9914 open price.
Canada’s better-than-expected reports made it easy for the currency bulls to attack, especially when risk aversion had already eased a bit in favor of high-yielding currencies. Securities purchases of foreigners flew to 13.29 billion CAD in January, which is way higher than December’s 9.40 billion CAD figure. Then, Canada’s wholesale sales also popped up in the green when it printed a 1.5% growth for January ahead of December’s 0.9% rise.
Aside from the G7 meetings happening in the piphood, Canada’s CPI figures will also make headlines today. The country’s headline inflation figure only showed a 0.3% growth for the month of January, but a higher number for February might push the Loonie higher in the charts.
Watch your charts closely!
The Loonie must have had so much swagger like Mick Jagger during the Asian session of Friday’s trading when USD/CAD was trading lower. Too bad support at the .9800 handle held and USD/CAD bounced back up to end the day at its opening price of .9850.
I have a feeling that the disappointing CPI report for February was the reason why the Loonie became the only one among the com-doll homies that didn’t post a win against the dollar. The headline figure came in at 0.3% and missed the forecast by 0.1%. Consequently, this translated to a 0.9% uptick on an annual basis, which is the lowest reading on record.
This must have upset Loonie bulls as evidence of muted inflation pressures could give the BOC more reason to put off an interest rate hike. Yikes!
Today we don’t have anything on tap on our economic calendar from Canada, which may mean that the Loonie could once again fall victim to market sentiment. So make sure you get a feel of the market’s mood! Remember that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite is in full swing.
Then tomorrow we’ll have the retail sales report to sink our teeth into. Analysts are expecting consumer spending to have rebounded in January after declining by 0.2% in December. The headline figure is expected to print at 1.1% while the core version, which excludes automobiles, is anticipated to come in at 0.8%.
Score one for the comdoll connection! No report was released from Canada yesterday, but the Loonie bulls were busy pushing the currency higher against its counterparts on higher oil prices and a bit of risk appetite. After USD/CAD dropped to an intraday low of .9749, it capped the day 71 pips lower at .9778.
While easing concerns in Japan brought a little risk appetite in markets, escalating worries in the Middle East also pushed up commodity prices like oil. Crude prices reached as much as $102 per barrel yesterday, which was good for the oil-related Loonie. Talk about having the best of both worlds!
Let’s see if the Loonie bulls can keep their momentum today when the retail sales report is released at 12:30 pm GMT. After printing a 0.2% decline in December, markets are now expecting the headline figure to show a 1.1% growth in January, while the core figure is seen at 0.8% from its 0.6% figure in December.
Also released around the same time is Canada’s leading index report. The index of 10 economic indicators is expected to rise by 0.7% in February, but a higher number might push the Loonie higher in the charts.
Last to hit Canada’s pip-stage is the Department of Finance’s annual budget release at 8:00 pm GMT. Watch this one closely as it might give clues on the government’s plans for its economy!
Ka-Blam!!! The Greenback choke-slammed the Loonie down the charts yesterday when a carnival of worse-than-expected economic reports from Canada weighed the Loonie and dragged it to the pip deeps. After dipping to an intraday low of .9747, USD/CAD finished the day 31 pips ahead of its open price at .9809.
Canada’s retail sales report was the Loonie bulls’ biggest headache yesterday when it printed a 0.3% decline in January. Meanwhile, retail sales excluding automobile purchases came out flat for the month when markets had expected a 0.8% growth. I guess my mates over in Canada just weren’t ready to shop yet, eh?
The silver lining in Canada’s string of economic reports was the leading index data. The index of 10 economic indicators rose by 0.8% in February, which is twice as fast as its 0.4% growth in January. This is good news for the Loonie since it shows that the economy is still growing.
The economic boards will be empty in Canada today, but keep close tabs on risk sentiment! I hear that big reports will hit markets today, so we might see increased volatility!
Way to go, Loonie! The Canadian dollar put up a strong fight against the Greenback yesterday, drawing support from another rise in oil prices. USD/CAD opened at .9808, reached a high of .9844, and managed to close at .9816.
Canada didn’t release any economic data but unease over New Zealand’s fourth quarter GDP limited the Loonie’s gains. But now that New Zealand narrowly dodged a double-dip recession, traders might feel a little more comfortable buying up the comdolls.
There are no red flags on Canada’s economic agenda for the rest of the week so make sure you gauge market sentiment first before taking any trades!
Way to go, Loonie! The Canadian dollar advanced against the Greenback yesterday, allowing USD/CAD to close below the .9800 handle and land at .9752. Oil prices just keep rising, don’t they? Well, that’s good for the Loonie!
Canada didn’t release any economic reports yesterday, but USD/CAD saw a lot of movement thanks to weak data from Uncle Sam. The dollar sold off yesterday when the U.S. printed softer than expected durable goods orders data. Core durable goods orders fell by 0.6% while the headline figure sank by 0.9%, way worse than the expectations of a 2.1% and 1.2% increase respectively.
On top of that, New Zealand proudly announced that it was able to dodge a double-dip recession when it printed positive GDP growth for the last quarter of 2010. Of course the Canadian dollar showed that it was happy for its comdoll buddy!
Up ahead, there are no red flags on Canada’s economic agenda so expect the Loonie to move to the tune of risk sentiment.
[I]Mayday mayday mayday! This is the Canadian government. I no longer have a position. I require immediate assistance![/I] No economic reports were released from Canada last Friday, but its government crashed and burned on a disagreement about its 2011 budget. As a result, USD/CAD rocketed by 62 pips and ended the week at .9814.
Last Friday the Conservative minority government failed to pass its 2011 Budget when all of the three opposition parties passed a vote of non-confidence on it. Though this doesn’t directly affect the Bank of Canada’s interest rates, the collapse of the government can affect decisions in budget and government spending.
Lucky for Canada, the Loonie traders will have time to think the situation over as no economic reports are due again today. But keep your eyes peeled for any developments! You’ll never know when the Loonie bears decide to take profit or if any new announcements are made.
If you want to trade Canada’s news though, you’ll have to wait until Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT when the raw materials price indexis released. The data showed a 0.3% growth in January, but market hotshots are expecting a 2.3% rise this time around. Then on Friday, the big GDP report will be released at 12:30 pm GMT. Unlike the raw materials report, analysts are only expecting the data to stagnate at a 0.5% growth in January.
Stay sharp in your trades, homies!
In spite of the political uncertainty surround Canada, the Loonie was able to power its way through the charts yesterday. Hawkish words from Bank of Canada top dog Mark Carney urged the Canadian currency on even as oil prices slid back. At the end of the day, USD/CAD finished 34 pips lower at .9767.
No data on tap? No problem! Mark Carney’s got your back, Loonie! Yesterday, Carney warned about soaring commodity prices and that keeping interest rates low for too long may come back to bite Canada. He even added that the Loonie’s strength isn’t an issue for the central bank at the moment. With words like that, you might as well wave a red flag in front of the Loonie bulls!
With no noteworthy reports coming out of Canada today, expect USD/CAD to remain range-bound. But do keep close tabs on oil prices and risk sentiment as they may dictate the Loonie’s direction as well.