Just when the Loonie got its Tim Tebow on, reaching a high of 1.0140 against the dollar, it started to lose its momentum. USD/CAD then spiked up to 1.0200 before ending the day 24 pips above its opening price at 1.0193.
Our forex calendar didn’t have anything on tap from Canada which left the Loonie at the mercy of market sentiment. Too bad it seemed like investors weren’t in the mood to buy riskier assets.
I wonder if the NHPI report for November will become the currency’s piptorade in today’s trading and allow it to hustle some muscle on the charts. Due at 1:30 pm GMT, it is expected to show that house prices grew by 0.2% during the month.
A better-than-expected figure will probably be bullish for the Loonie so stay tuned!
The absence of high profile economic reports on Canada’s economic calendar kept USD/CAD trading within a relatively tight 70-pip range yesterday. USD/CAD ended the day at 1.0191, just two pips lower from its opening price at 1.0193.
There was only one report that was released. The New House Price Index, or NHPI, showed an increase of 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% rise initially predicted. It was also a better figure than the one seen last month.
Today, only the trade balance is scheduled to be published. The market is expected the report to show a 500 million CAD deficit, which is a significant decrease from the previous month’s 900 million CAD deficit. Await the actual figure at 1:30 pm GMT.
Risk aversion strikes back! After a couple of days of staying below the 1.0200 handle, USD/CAD surged to a high of 1.0284 on Friday as higher-yielding currencies lost their ground. With the pair gapping higher over the weekend, could this mean that risk-taking would remain in check for the coming days?
Better than expected data from Canada wasn’t enough to keep the Loonie afloat last Friday even though the trade balance showed that the 0.5 billion CAD deficit in October turned into a 1.1 billion CAD surplus in November. It turns out that this piece of good news was overshadowed by the set of debt rating downgrades doled out by the S&P on the euro zone. Make sure you drop by my euro zone economic commentary to find out what happened!
This week, the BOC is set to make its interest rate decision on Tuesday while the Canadian manufacturing sales data is set for release on Thursday. By Friday, Canada will report its headline and core inflation figures for December. As far as top-tier events are concerned, that’s pretty much it for Canada so make sure you keep an eye out for those reports if you plan to trade the news!
Thanks to rising commodity prices, the Loonie managed to get on the winning side of the fence yesterday as it marked 63-pip gain over the Greenback. USD/CAD sat at 1.0180 by the end of the U.S. trading session.
In terms of economic reports, the Canadian front had nothing to offer. But today, expect something different as the Bank of Canada will be announcing its decision on interest rates at 2:00 pm GMT.
The market widely expects the central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%, so pay attention instead to the accompanying statement. Hawkish remarks, such as a potential rate hike in the coming months, tend to be bullish for the Loonie.
There were plenty of good vibes among the Loonie bulls yesterday as better-than-expected reports from Canada fueled appetite for the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD fell for the second day in a row, this time sliding by another 32 pips to 1.5566.
The foreign securities report started the party by printing at 14.99 billion CAD in November, which not only exceeded October’s 3.85 billion figure, but also expectations of 6.78 billion demand. Looks like investors like to buy them Loonies, eh?
The Bank of Canada was also a big hit as it kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.00% this month. Not only that, it also raised its 2011 economic growth forecast from 2.1% to 2.4%; its 2012 estimates from 1.9% to 2.0%. The central bank also expects inflation to reach its 2% target by the first quarter of 2013, a quarter earlier than previously predicted.
Will the BOC follow through with more good news today? The central bank will release its monetary policy report at 3:30 pm GMT today, which will be followed by a press conference at 4:15 pm GMT. Don’t even think of missing these reports!
Yesterday was another good day to be siding with the Loonie as it pocketed a few more pips to add to its recent collection. USD/CAD dropped 40 pips to close at 1.0113, recording its third straight daily slide. Will it make it four in a row today?
With markets worldwide enjoying a broad risk rally, the Loonie and its fellow comdolls had another field day on the charts.
As for the BOC’s monetary policy report, well… It really didn’t tell us anything new about the Canadian economy. It pretty much just reiterated what the central bank announced in its rate statement on Tuesday, but with more details. Basically, though the growth outlook has improved for Canada (Remember the upward revision to growth forecasts?), the BOC remains worried about the European debt crisis’ potential impact on Canada. They say that a recession in the euro zone could slash Canadian growth by 0.6%!
Anyway, today we have more Canadian data to work with. At 1:30 pm GMT, manufacturing sales data will be available. Survey says sales probably increased by 1.0% in November, a nice reversal to the 0.8% slide in October. Should results come in better than expected, look for the Loonie to extend its rally!
Even though risk sentiment was up, the Loonie was unable to capitalize. The Loonie gained early during the day, but lost midday to end the U.S. trading session where it started. USD/CAD closed at 1.0114, just a single pip higher from its opening price. It appeared that the Loonie was severely overbought, as it had already gained greatly in the last three days.
The only news report released, the manufacturing sales, came in better than expected. It printed a 2.0% gain, double the market forecast and opposite the 0.6% decline from the previous month.
Today will be a big day for the Loonie as Canada’s consumer price index will be published. The market is expected the report to show a 0.1% decline. Meanwhile, the core version of the report is predicted to show a 0.2% decrease. The actual figures will come out at 12:00 pm GMT.
The Loonie found itself sitting on the weaker side of the fence as the trading week closed last Friday. USD/CAD was unable to find a break below 1.0100 and closed the day 28 pips higher from its opening price that day.
The losses of the Loonie could be attributed mainly to the weak inflation figures. The country’s consumer price index printed a decline of 0.6%, much higher than the 0.1% decrease initially expected. Meanwhile, the core version of the report showed a 0.5% drop versus the 0.2% predicted.
This week, the only red flag on Canada’s calendar is the retail sales report. The report is slated to print a 0.2% increase, which is slightly lower than the previous month’s 0.7% gain. Better-than-expected figures typically result in Loonie rally.
Just like its comdoll siblings, the Canadian dollar managed to post some decent gains versus the dollar, as USD/CAD fell 76 pips to close at 1.0074. Now the pair is sitting just below major support at 1.0100, what could be in store for the Loonie?
We could be in for some wild moves during the New York session, as retail sales figures will be on tap at 1:30 pm GMT. Expectations are that headline retail sales growth was at 0.3% last November, while core retail sales increased by 0.2%.
If the report comes in much higher-than-anticipated, USD/CAD may just head off for new lows! Parity anyone?
Not this time, Loonie! Though Canadian core retail sales clocked in above forecasts, the Loonie was unable to capitalize on the better-than-expected data. As a result, USD/CAD inched up 25 pips from its opening price of 1.0074 to end the day just below the 1.0100 handle.
Canadian retail sales delivered a pleasant surprise yesterday as the core figure exceeded expectations. It came in at 0.3% in November, which is just a tick above the 0.2% rise that analysts had predicted. On the other hand, the headline figure fell in line with expectations at 0.3%. The downside is that the previous month’s 1.0% rise was revised down to just 0.9%.
No hard stats on tap today, but with the FOMC statement due later in the New York session, we could very well see plenty of action on USD/CAD. Stay sharp, fellas!
Way to go, Loonie! Thanks to renewed risk appetite, the Canadian dollar pocketed huge gains against the Greenback yesterday. USD/CAD opened at 1.0099, reached a high of 1.0148, then ended the day at 1.0036.
Even though Canada didn’t release any economic data yesterday, the Loonie was able to take advantage of the risk rallies which boosted commodity prices and the comdolls. Aside from that, the Loonie was also able to cash in on the dollar selloff that followed the FOMC statement. Apparently, the Fed plans to keep rates at their current levels until 2014. That’s a couple more years’ worth of low U.S. interest rates!
For today, Canada’s economic calendar is still empty, which means that the Loonie will have to take its cue from risk sentiment again. Be mindful that the U.S. has more than a few red flags on deck so make sure you also check out my U.S. economic commentary before trading USD/CAD!
And parity holds for USD/CAD! But for how long? The Loonie made a strong rally yesterday but quickly reversed during the U.S. session when euro zone debt concerns resurfaced. Still, the Loonie was able to save some of its gains as USD/CAD closed 19 pips down from its 1.0036 open price.
Although Canada didn’t release any economic figures yesterday, the Loonie was still able to join the risk rally that took place during the first few hours of the London session. However, risk aversion popped its head back in the markets later on when market participants found out that the ECB still couldn’t reach a deal with Greece’s creditors.
There aren’t any economic reports on Canada’s schedule for today so make sure you keep close tabs on risk sentiment to figure out where USD/CAD could be headed. Bear in mind that the U.S. is set to release its advanced GDP figure at 1:30 pm GMT today, and that could be a huge market mover. Stay on your toes!
Parity holds AGAIN! Though the Loonie gained 9 pips against its American counterpart, it was unable to push USD/CAD below parity as the pair greeted the weekend at 1.0008. Will Loonie bulls attack 1.0000 again today?
Risk appetite gave the Loonie and its comdoll brethren one final boost before the weekend, but it looks like the effects are starting to wear off. The comdolls are off to a weak start this week! Is risk sentiment starting to shift against risk takers, or is this an opportunity to load up on long comdoll positions?
That’s certainly something to think about while we wait for Canadian data to come out tomorrow at 1:30 pm GMT. The monthly GDP report is due and slated to show a 0.2% uptick for November following October’s 0.0% growth.
Then on Friday, Canadian employment data will be available. Look for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 7.5% and expect this to be accompanied by a growth of 23,500 jobs in January.
In the meantime, keep your eyes on risk sentiment and commodities markets if you plan on trading the Loonie! Peace out and good luck, homies!
With the dollar off to a quick start, the Loonie saw itself trading lower to begin the week. USD/CAD hit a high at 1.0071 before eventually stabilizing at 1.0028, just 18 pips above its opening price for the week. Will the bears eventually take over and push USD/CAD back below parity?
No biggies released from the Great White North yesterday, but make sure you tune in today at 1:30 pm GMT, as monthly GDP figures will be hitting the markets. Word is that the Canadian economy grew by 0.2% in November, which would be a nice improvement from the flat growth we saw in October. If we see the report print higher-than-anticipated, it may just give the Canadian dollar the fuel it needs to break past the key 1.0000 mark.
No thanks to Canada’s disappointing GDP figures and the slight case of risk aversion in the market, the Loonie was unable to make significant gains yesterday. Against the Greenback, for instance, the Loonie ended the day at 1.0027, which was just a 1 pip difference from its opening price.
The GDP report for the month of November showed a 0.1% contraction, opposite the 0.2% growth initially expected. It was also worse than the month prior’s flat reading. According to the data, the decrease was primarily the result of the fall in mining, oil, and gas extraction.
The unexpected drop hints that the slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2011 was much sluggish than forecast, and could lead to the annualized rate being cut to 1.5% from 3.5% during the quarter before.
No major report coming out of Canada today, so pay attention to the ADP non-farm employment change from the U.S. to determine where the Loonie is headed. The report will come out at 1:15 pm GMT, and is anticipated to show a 189,000 gain.
And just like that, USD/CAD is now officially on the other side of parity! USD/CAD closed at .9991, as the Loonie closed 36 pips lower on the day. Is the pair destined for new lows?
Just like other higher yielding currencies, the Canadian dollar took advantage of U.S. dollar weakness and crept higher. Interestingly though, crude oil has now dropped the past four trading days. I’m curious to see whether the Canadian dollar will remain resilient or if it’ll eventually follow oil’s lead.
No data on tap today, but be on the lookout for any surprises in the market. You never know what might move the markets!
Talk about a neck-and-neck fight! Bulls and bears played tug-o-pips on USD/CAD yesterday, with the pair just seesawing around its opening price of .9991. However, it was the dollar who came out on top by the end of the day’s trading as USD/CAD closed at .9996. Sorry Loonie!
The lack of economic reports might have limited the comdoll’s moves. With our forex calendar still blank for reports from Canada today, you may want to keep tabs on market sentiment. Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk appetite is up.
On top of that, be sure to keep an eye out for the much anticipated NFP report from the U.S. Forex Gump wrote a blog that will help us anticipate the report better, so it might be a good idea to check it out.
Never mind poor economic data – risk appetite is here to stay! Thanks to a strong NFP report, USD/CAD blasted below its .9950 support and ended the day with a 60-pip drop at .9936. Boo yah!
Last Friday Canada printed weak employment reports as its unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 7.6% in January. In addition, its employment change report revealed only an addition of 2,300 in the month instead of the 23,300 figure that many were expecting. Good thing the positive NFP report from the U.S. saved the day for high-yielding comdolls!
Will Canada continue to print disappointing reports this week? The week will kick off with the IVEY PMI report at 3:00 pm GMT, followed by the building permits data tomorrow at 1:30 pm GMT; the housing starts data on Wednesday at 1:15 pm GMT, and the trade balance report on Friday at 1:30 pm GMT.
Peace out, homies! Go forth and make some pips!
Cheer up, Loonie bulls! Yesterday was just one of those days when you still lose despite positive data. The Loonie ended Monday’s trading with a 3-pip loss against the dollar as USD/CAD closed higher at .9955.
The Ivey PMI for January topped both the 58.6 forecast and the 63.5 reading for December. Although this implies that the manufacturing industry grew at a faster pace during the month, traders seemed to have been pre-occupied worrying about Greece still not reaching a deal with its creditors.
Given that, you may want to gauge market sentiment in today’s trading. I have a good feeling that updates from the euro zone will primarily dictate investors’ moods. Also be sure to be on your toes for December’s building permits report from Canada due later at 1:30 pm GMT. If the tier-1 report prints higher than 0.2%, we may just see the Loonie rally!
Who paid attention to the Loonie yesterday? Nobody, apparently, as USD/CAD hardly exhibited any volatility. It simply moved sideways the entire day and ended the U.S. trading session at .9949, a mere 6 pips lower from its opening price.
Even though the report on building permits came in greatly above forecast, it failed to make an impact on the Loonie’s price action. The report revealed an 11.1% gain, significantly higher than the 0.2% increase initially expected. It was also a very welcome improvement from the previous month’s 0.2% decline.
Today, only the housing starts report is on Canada’s economic cupboard. It is slated to show that 193,000 homes (annualized) began construction in January. Rising housing starts are usually considered good for the currency, as it reflects the health of the economy. A better-than-expected figure could provide support for the Loonie.