It ends at three! Despite clocking in a worse-than-expected report, the Loonie rose in the charts and even dragged USD/CAD below parity by the end of the day. The pair closed 26 pips lower than its open price at .9980.
We don’t know for sure what exactly influenced the Loonie’s strength, but it sure isn’t Canada’s economic report! Canada’s building permits registered a 12.3% decline in January, which is a lot weaker than the 10.5% gain that we saw in February. Apparently, both residential and non-residential components of the report fell as a result of a decrease in intentions of building multi-family dwellings in Ontario.
Will the Loonie go for two today? Aside from major economic reports from other regions, the Loonie pairs might also be affected by Canada’s housing starts report coming up at 1:15 pm GMT. Then, at 2:00 pm GMT the Bank of Canada will steal the limelight as it announces its interest rate decision.
Like the RBA and the RBNZ, BOC is expected to keep its rates steady at 1.00% and announce a couple of dovish reports. We might still see a couple of surprises from the BOC though, so make sure you keep close tabs on these reports!
Everything was going the Loonie’s way yesterday as a rise in oil prices and the BOC’s optimistic rate statement cleared the path for the Canadian currency to climb up the charts. USD/CAD posted a 70-pip slide, its largest in over a month, as it closed at .9910.
As expected, the Bank of Canada made no changes to its interest rates, but the central bank did manage to rile up Loonie bulls with its upbeat comments on the economy. For one, it noted that the economic outlook has improved from January, so much so that policymakers think that first quarter growth may outpace expectations.
After seeing another month’s worth of data, the BOC also realized that private demand is picking up traction and it now thinks that it may come in “slightly stronger than expected.” As a result, the central bank predicts that this could boost inflation, which would basically give it another reason to keep from easing its monetary policy further!
Today, I think the Loonie will remain in the spotlight as Canada is due to publish important employment data at 12:00 pm GMT. Survey says that the Canadian labor market probably saw job gains of about 14,200 last month, up from 2,300 in January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 7.6%.
Then at 1:30 pm GMT, trade balance data will be available. If forecasts are correct, then we’ll see Canada’s surplus shrink from 2.7 billion CAD to just 2.0 billion CAD in January.
Look for USD/CAD to forge new lows if results beat expectations, but keep in mind that the U.S. NFP report is also due at 1:30 pm GMT!
Wham, bam, thank you economic reports! Okay, I wouldn’t exactly win rhyming competitions, but that’s how the Loonie bulls must have felt last Friday! Thanks to better-than-expected economic data, USD/CAD was able to end the day at its open price while other comdolls fell across the board on poor risk appetite.
Last Friday Canada showed that employment decreased by 2,800 in the month of February. Unemployment rate sank from 7.6% to 7.4% though, which helped boost appetite for the high-yielding comdoll. Not only that, Canada’s trade balance also clocked in a bit better-than-expected at 2.1 billion CAD against expectations of only 2.0 billion CAD for the month of January.
Let’s see if Canada can follow up on its better-than-expected surprises this week with its economic reports coming up. On Wednesday at 12:30 pm GMT Canada will release its capacity utilization rate and new motor vehicle sales reports, both of which are expected to print higher than their previous figures. Then, on Friday at 12:30 pm GMT we’ll also get hold of Canada’s foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales data.
Consolidation is the name of the game! USD/CAD seems set to hold on to the .9900 handle as it moved sideways yesterday. Still, the pair managed to chalk up a tiny gain as it closed 14 pips up from its .9911 open price. Will we see a bigger move from this pair today?
The lack of economic data from both the U.S. and Canada probably explains USD/CAD’s ranging behavior yesterday, but things are bound to get pretty exciting today as a few top-tier reports are on deck.
Although Canada isn’t set to release any big reports today, you should keep an eye out for the U.S. retail sales release at 12:30 pm GMT as it could show a slight pickup in spending for February. After all, we did see strong jobs data from the U.S. that month, which could translate to an uptick in retail sales.
At 6:15 pm GMT, the Fed will make its monetary policy statement, which usually turns out to be a major market mover. Word through the grapevine is that the Fed is considering a new form of quantitative easing, but is set to keep rates on hold at the moment. Make sure you check out my U.S. economic commentary to read the rest of the details and figure out how it could affect USD/CAD!
Just like its comdoll siblings, the Canadian dollar rallied yesterday, as optimism helped the comdolls surge higher. USD/CAD closed 39 pips lower at .9886, forming a nice marubozu candle on the daily chart. Will it continue to drop today?
The Canadian dollar mostly benefitted from the rather optimistic Fed statement late yesterday. Check out my U.S. commentary to find out exactly what was said!
We only have capacity utilization data on tap today at 12:30 am GMT, but I don’t think this will be too much of a Loonie mover. The only way I see it being a catalyst is if it comes in exception better or worse than the projected 81.6% figure.
Instead, keep an eye out for shifts in risk sentiment, as this could prove to be the major driver of the Loonie today.
Ho humm… USD/CAD’s range-bound movement continued yesterday as the pair stayed stuck between the .9900 and .9950 levels. Let’s find out if there are any catalysts for a potential breakout today.
But first, a quick rundown of yesterday’s economic reports from Canada. Their capacity utilization rate came in worse than expected at 80.5% for the last quarter of 2011, less than the predicted 81.6% reading, while the previous quarter’s reading was revised from 81.3% to 80.0%. This shows that manufacturers are farther away from full capacity, which implies lower inflationary pressures for Canada.
The good news is that new motor vehicle sales beat expectations with a 15.4% increase instead of the estimated 2.1% growth. This was probably one of the reasons why the Loonie managed to stay afloat despite the U.S. dollar rallies yesterday.
Unfortunately, Canada’s economic schedule is empty for today, which means that the Loonie could give in to Greenback strength in case it continues for yet another day. Bear in mind that the U.S. is set to release a bunch of red flags today, so make sure you drop by my U.S. economic commentary to get the inside scoop!
The Loonie might not have lost so much against the dollar early this week, but it hasn’t made leaps and bounds against it either. USD/CAD only dropped to an intraday low of .9906 before it finished the day with an 8-pip slip to .9919.
The economic boards were empty in Canada yesterday, but a pullback on the dollar rally helped boost the comdolls across the board. The Loonie’s gains were limited though, as oil prices declined for the third time in four days.
Apparently, oil investors weren’t happy about the rumors that U.S. President Barack Obama and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron are talking about increasing oil supply through the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Will the Loonie catch up with the other comdolls and post more gains against the Greenback today? At 12:30 pm GMT Canada is set to release its foreign securities purchase and manufacturing sales reports. Both reports are expected to come in weaker than their previous readings, but stay at the edge of your seats for any surprises that might come your way!
Good luck and enjoy your weekend, pipsters!
Whew! The Loonie managed to end the week with a win against the dollar by a hairsbreadth! USD/CAD settled 2 pips below the day’s opening price at .9917. That was close!
However, unlike the other comdolls, the Loonie wasn’t really able to take advantage of the dollar’s weakness as worse-than-expected reports from Canada might’ve weighed it down on Friday. Manufacturing sales for January printed a 0.9% decline and disappointed the market’s 0.4% forecast. Meanwhile, foreign securities purchases for the same month posted a 4.19 billion CAD deficit and fell short of the market’s consensus which was for a surplus of 6.27 billion CAD.
I wonder if the wholesale sales report for January will weigh down the Loonie’s performance in today’s trading too. Be on your toes for it, ayt? It’s due to be released at 12:30 pm GMT and it is eyed to come in at 0.4%.
The Loonie was off to a strong start to the week as it snatched 43 pips away from the Greenback to push USD/CAD down to .9870. Will it follow through with another win today?
Walking hand in hand with its fellow comdolls, the Loonie was able to march right up the charts despite the release of downbeat wholesale sales data. According to the latest stats, Canadian wholesale sales dropped 1.0% in January, and the losses mostly came from two industries: the motor vehicles and parts subsector, and the miscellaneous subsector. Bummer! Meanwhile, oil prices rallied once more and helped the Loonie keep its head above water.
We won’t have any major reports on tap from Canada today, so in the meantime, check out what’s happening south of the border. The U.S. is set to release a few reports today that may just direct traffic on USD/CAD, so be sure to check out my writeup on the U.S. dollar as well!
With risk aversion creeping back into the markets, comdolls like the Canadian dollar took a hit in yesterdays trading. USD/CAD climbed back to as high as .9969 before finally settling at .9916, up 50 pips from its opening price. What gives?
The major reason why the Canadian dollar took a hit was due to concerns that Chinese demand may be slowing down. Take note that China has been fuelling the commodity drive, as it needed resources to keep up its production levels. If it appears that China will cut back on its orders, commodity driven currencies like the Canadian dollar stand to take a hit.
For today, the only piece of economic data on tap will be the leading index, which is set to hit the airwaves at 12:30 pm GMT. Word out of the Rockies is that the index ticked up by another 0.5%, which would be a nice follow up to last month’s 0.7% increase and would indicate improving conditions in the Canadian economy. If the index prints an even bigger increase, it could allow the Canadian dollar to bounce back from yesterday’s losses.
Despite the market’s sour sentiment, the Loonie was still able to stay afloat versus the safe haven Greenback yesterday. USD/CAD closed the U.S. trading session at .9923, just 7 pips higher from where it began that day.
The only significant report released from Canada was its leading index. It came in with a 0.6% increase, which was slightly higher than the 0.5% forecast. It was also an improvement from the previous month’s 0.4% figure.
Expect a lot of action from the Loonie today since Canada’s retail sales report will come out today. Scheduled to publish at 12:30 pm GMT, the headline report is slated to show a 1.8% increase. The core version is anticipated to print a 0.5% gain.
Market sentiment finally turned the tide on the Canadian dollar, as USD/CAD soared to new highs yesterday. USD/CAD hit a high at 1.0009 before finally settling at .9994, up 72 pips from its opening price.
The combination of dismal retail sales figures and overall risk aversion proved to be too much for the Canadian dollar yesterday.
First, the Chinese PMI report released early in the Asian session came in weaker-than-expected, as it printed at 48.1. This marked a drop off from last month’s score of 49.6. Risk sentiment has been highly sensitive to Chinese data lately, so whenever there are signs that China may be hitting a slowdown, commodity dollars like the Canadian dollar have taken a hit.
Meanwhile, retail sales figures came in deep in the red, as headline sales grew by just 0.5% last January What’s worse was that core sales actually fell by 0.5%. This was way off the expected 0.5% and 1.8% increases respectively. This data hints that the Canadian economy may be slow coming out of the gate this year.
Today, we’ve got Canadian CPI figures on tap at 11:00 am GMT. Core and headline CPI numbers are projected to print at 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. If the data comes in to show that inflation remains much more subdued than initially thought, it would give the BOC more reason to keep rates lower for an extended period of time, which in turn could weigh on the Loonie.
Party at parity! USD/CAD traded around the major 1.0000 psychological handle on Friday, tapping an intraday high of 1.0035 and a low of .9971. The pair then closed the week at .9978, with a 15-pip win for the Loonie for the day.
Apart from the pick up in risk appetite, the positive inflation reports from Canada also boosted the Loonie in Friday’s trading. The 0.4% monthly increase in the core CPI for February translated to a 2.3% year-on year growth, which is the fastest pace of increase in three years. Analysts had only expected a more modest uptick of 0.2% for the month.
Meanwhile, the headline figure came in just as expected at 0.4%.
Don’t get too excited buying the Loonie though. Remember that Canada’s employment and consumer spending figures has fallen below expectations which could be enough reason for the BOC to hold off hiking rates.
When the comdolls start gaining across the board, you just know that the Loonie bulls are in front of the action! No economic report was released from Canada yesterday, so Loonie traders turned their focus on risk appetite. USD/CAD dropped from its intraday high at parity all the way to its .9913 closing price.
As I mentioned in my USD post, high-yielding currencies got a boost yesterday when Big Ben Bernanke implied that the Fed might remain its accommodative monetary policy longer than market players originally thought. This is also partly why oil prices edged higher yesterday. And we all know how that’s good for the oil-related Loonie!
In other news, the BOC released a brand-spankin’-new bank note yesterday! The new polymer $50 bill (see image below) was released to commemorate the 50[SUP]th[/SUP] anniversary of the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker and research vessel, [I]Amundsen[/I]. The new material used for the bill is expected to be more durable and contains more anti-counterfeit features than its predecessors.
No other economic report is scheduled for release in Canada again today, so make sure you stay glued to the tube for any report that might affect risk sentiment!
Thanks to the absence of market-moving economic reports from Canada, investors didn’t go loco for the Loonie yesterday. USD/CAD traded higher to end the day 37 pips above its opening price at .9949.
A lot of market junkies, including myself, think that the comdoll’s loss was caused by the pullback following the strong dollar sell-off on Monday. But is it really just a pullback or are we seeing a reversal?
Keep that question in mind and be on your toes for signs in yesterday’s trading. Good luck!
The Loonie found itself holding on to the short end of the stick yesterday as it fell against other major currencies. Against the safe haven Greenback, for instance, the Loonie posted a 31 pip loss.
Because no real tier 1 data was released from Canada yesterday, there really was no clear reason behind the Loonie’s fall. It could be simply profit taking as the pair trades below parity or it could be also be result of risk aversion as the Dow fell 0.33%. Of course, it could also be a combination of both.
In any case, today we’ll see a couple of mid-tier data in the form of the Raw Material Price Index (RMPI) and the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI). The RMPI is expected to show a 0.4% gain while the IPPI is slated to print a 0.5% increase. The results for both reports will come out at 12:30 pm GMT.
Booooooooring! Due to the absence of major market-moving events, the Loonie pretty much traded in a tight horizontal channel last Friday. It just bounced within a 50-pip range and closed the day barely changed from its opening price.
The only news release that day was the GDP report. The report showed that the economy expanded by 0.1% in January, just as the market expected. At the same time, the GDP figure for December 2011 was revised up to 0.5% from 0.4%. This seems to hint that Canada’s economy will show some strong GDP figures for the first quarter of this year.
There are a couple of important events lined up for Canada this week, but they will all be released on Thursday. Specifically, we’ll see figures on building permits, employment, and the Ivey PMI. The reports on building permits and employment will be released at 12:00 pm GMT while the Ivey PMI will be published at 2:00 pm GMT.
Who needs economic reports when you have the U.S., China, and rising oil prices boosting the Loonie? After reaching an intraday high at .9991, USD/CAD plunged 58 pips lower than its open price and closed at .9904. Here are the details.
The Loonie started the day on the right side of the charts as comdoll bulls reacted to a better-than-expected Chinese PMI report. The rally was later fueled in the U.S. session when the U.S. also clocked in a surprisingly strong manufacturing PMI. As a result of these positive reports, oil prices shot up by as much as 2%, which only boosted the oil-related Loonie higher in the charts.
No Canadian economic report is scheduled for release today, but pay close attention to any report that might cause risk appetite to turn, aight?
The Loonie was actually one of the most resilient currencies yesterday as it was able to hold its ground against the Greenback’s advances. Even with the Fed softening its stimulus stance, USD/CAD was able to end the day at .9903, virtually unchanged from its opening price.
It seems Loonie bulls still had a bit of wind left in their sails from BOC Governor Mark Carney’s upbeat words on Monday night. Carney claimed that the economy is performing above expectations and that the threat of a European debt crisis has died down a bit. Ahhh, nothing like good ole solid fundamentals and optimistic remarks to keep your currency afloat, eh?
No major reports to track in Canada today. So in the meantime, I suggest y’all check out the heavy guns that the U.S. is set to unveil. Good luck, fellas!
Despite the crazy moves on other pairs, we didn’t see much on USD/CAD. The pair basically stayed within range and didn’t make any new significant high or low. Will we see more of the same today?
We could be in some wild moves later during the U.S. session as the Bank of Canada will be releasing its business outlook survey. The survey asks 100 participants to rate their thoughts on current and future business conditions. The report could provide some insight as to what direction the central bank tends to push monetary policy towards, so watch out!