Daily Economic Commentary: Canada

That’s how you stop the bleeding! The Canadian dollar bulls pulled ahead yesterday, allowing USD/CAD to fall 16 pips and finish the day at 1.0254.

We could be in for more big moves on USD/CAD today when retail sales figures hit the airwaves at 12:30 pm GMT. Word from the Great White North is that core and headline sales rose by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. These would mark great improvements from the -0.9% and -2.1% we saw the month before, and should they come in even higher, it could spur the Canadian dollar to even greater gains.

It looked as though the Loonie was gonna lock in a big win against the Greenback, but it ended up slacking off towards the New York session. USD/CAD fell to as low as 1.0201 before it settled at 1.0244 with a 10-pip gain on the day.

Finally, a reason for Canada to lighten up! Retail sales posted a solid 1.0% gain in January, which is a nice little rebound from December 2.3% drop. While auto sales contributed a big chunk to this growth, core retail sales (which excludes auto sales) managed to print a 0.5% rise. Not bad, eh?

Unfortunately, that’s the last report we’ll get from Canada this week. So in the meantime, y’all should check out what’s happening in the euro zone for news that could shift risk sentiment. Peace out and good luck!

With no hard data coming out, USD/CAD traders seemed to just doze off to finish the week. USD/CAD stuck within a range of just over 40 pips, eventually ending the day at 1.0232.

Once again, we’ve got an empty economic cupboard for Canada, as no data will be released today or tomorrow. That said, we could see more subdued trading from USD/CAD until Wednesday, when CPI figures will be released.

Risk aversion? Baby, please! It got nothing on the Loonie. Well, at least not in yesterday’s trading. The comdoll finished the day with another win as USD/CAD closed 22 pips below its opening price at 1.0213.

Despite concerns over Cyprus that sent the euro to its year-to-date lows, the comdolls seemed unfazed by all the negative vibes. Would it carry on today? Err, I’m not really sure as the lack of economic reports from Canada could make the currency vulnerable to market sentiment.

So if you’re planning to trade the Loonie, make sure you keep close tabs on the market’s mood, ayt?

Score another one for the comdolls! For the fifth day in a row, the Loonie clobbered the Greenback like it was The Hulk. USD/CAD fell by 64 pips this time as it closed at the 1.0165 area. What the heck boosted the Loonie anyway?

It seems that market players are gunning for a better-than-expected inflation report, which is due to come out at 12:30 pm GMT. The BOC was surprisingly dovish in its last interest rate statement but since then Canadian data has been pretty mixed. Maybe a higher-than-expected inflation would put the BOC back to a hawkish mood?

No other data is scheduled on the Canadian docket today, so prepare well for the CPI report if you’re planning on trading the Loonie today! Keep in mind that the headline figure is expected to show a 0.6% growth from its 0.1% reading last month while the core figure is seen at 0.3%, up from last month’s 0.1%.

Doji alert! The Loonie just couldn’t get its game on against the dollar despite positive Canadian data. USD/CAD got rejected at support around 1.0165 all throughout the day. By the end of the New York session, the pair settled at 1.0164, unchanged from its opening price.

The CPI report for February showed the strongest inflation growth seen since 1982. The headline figure came in at 1.2%, twice the market forecast, while the core reading was at 0.8% and topped the consensus at 0.3%.

Of course, this sparked speculations that the BOC could stick to its hawkish bias. Unfortunately for the Loonie, risk aversion just kept traders from jumping in on higher-yielding assets.

But fret not! Today, the Canadian GDP report for February will be on tap at 12:30 pm GMT. A figure better than the expected 0.1% reading could just be enough to get traders buying up the Loonie. Don’t miss it!

Ho humm… USD/CAD simply rocked back and forth between the 1.0150 area and the 1.0170 mark on Friday as most banks were off on a holiday then. The pair appears to be breaking higher at the start of this week as it already reached the 1.0180 area during today’s Asian session.

There are no reports on Canada’s schedule for today, which suggests another round of quiet trading conditions for USD/CAD. Be mindful though that the U.S. is set to print their ISM manufacturing PMI for March and possibly show that the figure remained unchanged at 54.2. A higher than expected reading would imply stronger expansion in the manufacturing industry, which might boost the U.S. dollar during the release around 3:00 pm GMT.

The only top-tier reports due from Canada this week are its trade balance, employment data, and Ivey PMI set for release on Friday, along with the U.S. NFP figure. Until then, keep close tabs on U.S. data and changes in risk sentiment that might affect USD/CAD’s movement.

If this keeps up, I might have to start calling the Canadian dollar “Zzzoonie” instead! For the fourth straight day, USD/CAD’s price action was unable to pick a clear direction. The pair simply moved horizontally, finding support at 1.0160 and resistance at 1.0184.

It seemed that the absence of market-moving data was mostly to blame for USD/CAD’s slow price action yesterday. And with another empty data cupboard coming up, we could see more of the same today. Still, it will be best to be extra careful with your position. We could see some sudden volatility spikes today as traders return to their stations after the long holiday weekend.

What a close match! The Loonie bulls dominated USD/CAD in the early trading sessions yesterday but risk aversion dragged the pair from its intraday lows and capped its losses to only 18 pips. What the heck happened?

Positive reports from Australia and New Zealand spurred comdoll appetite early in the day, but the Loonie bulls lost momentum in the later trading sessions when risk aversion clouded the markets. Of course, it didn’t help that commodity prices of gold and oil also slipped a bit yesterday.

Canada won’t be releasing any economic report today so USD/CAD will most likely trade on the U.S. ADP report coming up at 12:15 pm GMT followed by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 2:00 pm GMT. Market players look at these reports for directional signals for the big NFP report on Friday so make sure that you’re watching your trades when these reports are released!

What an absolute snoozer! After an entire day of trading, USD/CAD settled just 2 pips below its opening price at 1.0147. Let’s see if it’ll come to life today!

It was hard for the Loonie to get its groove on without any reports from Canada to drive USD/CAD action. Even though the U.S. published a couple of notable releases, it just couldn’t get the pair to move!

Hopefully, things will change today as we have a handful of tier 1 events on tap that may shake up risk sentiment and get the Loonie going. To learn more about the rate decisions scheduled for today, I suggest you read Forex Gump’s preview. Good luck and happy trading, folks!

The Loonie is on a roll! USD/CAD extended its losing streak as the Loonie gained another 23 pips on the Greenback. And to think that Canada didn’t even release any economic report!

The dollar was doing fine in the early trading sessions but risk appetite soon took over the markets in the U.S. session while Mario Draghi was conducting an ECB’s press conference. Will the Loonie get its chance at dictating its own price action today?

Today is a big day for Canada as it’s scheduled to print not only its trade balance and unemployment numbers at 12:30 pm GMT, but also its IVEY PMI report at 2:00 pm GMT. Canadian reports have been printing to the upside lately, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t keep your eyes out for any downside surprises! Remember, the reports scheduled today are closely watched by the Loonie bulls and bears!

Did USD/CAD just wake up from its slumber or what? The pair broke out of consolidation and jumped to a high of 1.0235 prior to the NFP release then zoomed right back down when the results were printed. What was that all about?

Canadian data came in mixed last week as the jobs report disappointed while trade balance and Ivey PMI beat expectations. The employment change figure clocked in a 54.5K drop in hiring, worse than the estimated 6.8K increase in hiring. This brought the jobless rate up from 7.0% to 7.2% for March, triggering a selloff for the Loonie.

However, the weaker than expected U.S. NFP results later on resulted in a dollar selloff as the figure came in at 88K instead of the 198K consensus. The Loonie was also able to gain support from the Ivey PMI which landed at 61.6, higher than the consensus at 52.4.

Only the BOC business outlook survey is set for release from Canada today and this isn’t likely to have a huge impact on Loonie price action. After that, the building permits data, which is due Tuesday, is the only major report left on Canada’s schedule for the week.

USD/CAD’s price action yesterday was as mixed as a bag of jellybeans. At first, the pair consolidated heavily, and traded within a very tight 20-pip range. During the U.S. session, however, the pair burst into life and rallied strongly to 1.0216. Towards the end of the day, the pair gave up its gains to closed the day barely changed at 1.1074.

No important data from Canada was published yesterday as only the BOC Business Outlook Survey was released. It reported that firms expect businesses conditions to be very challenging in the next 12 months. Growth, according to them, has slowed due to weak consumer demand. Credit conditions, too, have gotten slightly tighter.

Today, we’ll see the report on building permits and housing starts. The expectation is that building permits grew 3.7% and that housing starts declined to 176,000 from 178,000. Better-than-expected results could help the Loonie rally and cause USD/CAD to break support at 1.0156.

As usual, USD/CAD moved sideways for most of the day, although volatility did pick up during the start of the U.S. session. The pair cruised between 1.0170 resistance and support near 1.0150 as Canada printed mixed reports. Will we see a breakout today?

Canadian housing starts came in stronger than expected at 184K versus the projected 176K reading while building permits fell short of expectations of a 3.7% increase and posted a 1.7% rise instead. This goes to show that the housing industry is still on a bit of shaky ground but analysts pointed out that the weak jobs growth for the month didn’t cause such a huge downturn on this sector.

The coast is clear for the Loonie today as there are no reports due from Canada. This could mean that we’d see more consolidation for USD/CAD as the U.S. FOMC meeting minutes release is also expected to have a muted impact on dollar pairs.

Once again, USD/CAD trading was as boring as a golf tournament, as it pretty much stuck within its recent range and is currently trading at 1.0150. Will we see another snoozefest today?

As it turns out, the FOMC meeting minutes didn’t really elicit too much of a move on USD/CAD. With no data lined up once again today, we could see more consolidation on USD/CAD. But of course, that doesn’t mean you can just chill out, as you never know what might rock the markets socks!

The Loonie joined its comdoll buddies on the winners’ bench yesterday. USD/CAD finished lower at 1.0106 after opening at 1.0145. Boo yeah!

Only the NHPI report was released from Canada and it showed that the selling price of new homes rose by 0.2% during the month, twice as much as analysts had predicted. However, more than the positive report, I think that the Loonie rose because of an increase in risk appetite.

With that said and given that our forex calendar is blank for reports from Canada today, be sure you get a feel of market sentiment before trading the Loonie, ayt?

The Loonie lost ground to the U.S. dollar on Friday as USD/CAD jumped from the 1.0100 area to close around 1.0130. The Canadian currency also sold off against the yen as CAD/JPY slipped from 98.80 to a low of 96.75.

There were no economic reports released from Canada on Friday but weaker than expected U.S. retail sales also weighed on the Loonie. After all, Canada is Uncle Sam’s North American neighbor, which means that economic weakness in the U.S. could also weigh on Canada.

Once again, there are no economic releases on Canada’s schedule today as the Loonie could take its cue from U.S. data. The big event for Canada this week is the BOC interest rate decision scheduled on Wednesday.

Do keep an eye out for the Chinese GDP due today as this could have an impact on comdoll action and risk sentiment. A lower than expected reading could be negative for the higher-yielding currencies so stay on your toes!

And just like that, USD/CAD is back trading above 1.0200! With oil prices dropping below $90 a barrel, the Canadian dollar took a big hit in yesterday’s trading, as USD/CAD rose 109 pips to finish at 1.0254.

Commodities like gold and oil took a huge hit yesterday, as poor Chinese data weighed on the commodities market. This didn’t bode well for the Canadian dollar, which is highly correlated to the price of oil.

Can the CAD bulls regain their bearing today? Tune in at 12:30 pm GMT, as manufacturing sales growth figures will be released. Expectations are that sales rose by 0.6% last month, which would mark a nice turnaround from the 0.2% drop we saw last month. Should this come in even higher than anticipated, it could help the Canadian dollar recuperate some of yesterday’s losses.

It has been a tough couple of days for the Canadian dollar. Thankfully, yesterday didn’t turn out so bad, as the currency was able to recover some of its losses. USD/CAD closed the day at 1.0205, 50 pips lower from its opening price during the Asian session.

The Loonie was boosted by the positive manufacturing sales report. It showed that sales grew 2.6%, much larger than the 0.6% the market had initially projected. It was also notably better than the previous month’s 0.6% decline (revised down from -0.2%).

Today will be a big day for the Loonie as the Bank of Canada (BOC) is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates. It’s widely expected for the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 1.00%, so the market’s attention will likely shift to the accompanying statement. In the last meeting, the BOC sounded slightly optimistic, as it upgraded the GDP outlook to 2.0% for 2013 and 2.7% for 2014. Let’s see if the BOC will be able to maintain its positive tone.

Thanks to change of heart by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar took a massive hit in yesterday’s trading action. After opening a shade above 1.0200, USD/CAD eventually zoomed higher following the BOC rate statement, eventually closing at 1.0265. What gives?

After raising its GDP forecast at the last meeting to 2.0%, the BOC backtracked and downgraded the growth forecast to just 1.5%. This caused a CAD sell-off, as traders completely ignored the other comments by BOC officials saying that there was still some slack in the economy and that current interest rates were appropriate.

No hard data on deck for today, but watch out for BOC Governor Mark Carney’s interview with Thomson Reuters at 3:00 pm GMT. He might just be asked questions about the BOC recent actions and this could spark some volatility in USD/CAD.