Daily Economic Commentary: Euro zone

Trading Discussion News and Economy
736

Hmmm, it looks like the euro is off to a relatively good start. After EUR/USD fell from its intraday high of 1.3268, the pair was still able to pare its losses and close the day 3 pips above its opening price at 1.3237. It might not be much, but a win is a win, right?

Yesterday, we found out that Spain is in the same rut as the U.K., officially falling into recession. The country’s Q1 GDP 2012 matched its previous reading for the last quarter of 2012 at -0.3%. Yikes! Luckily for the euro, market participants had braced themselves enough for the report and the news of recession didn’t come as a surprise.

Germany’s retail sales report for March also didn’t catch anyone off-guard when it came in as expected at 0.8%.

A lot of economic gurus feel that the euro has Lady Luck to thank for its 3-pip win yesterday because U.S. data came in mixed and affirmed the Fed’s plans of providing the economy with more stimulus.

Today our forex calendar is blank for reports from the euro zone because of Labour Day. However, we do have a couple of top-tier reports from the U.S. that could affect EUR/USD’s price action today. So be sure you don’t miss 'em!

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With euro zone markets closed in celebration of Labour Day, EUR/USD spent the entire day chilling on the charts. As a matter of fact, after 24 hours of trading, it finished just 2 pips lower at 1.3239, forming a third consecutive doji on the daily chart! Will this pair finally bust a move today?

There’s certainly a chance, homies! Volatility could pick up later in the day and the euro could break out of consolidation as European traders pour back into the markets.

Also, we’ve got a couple of employment reports on deck that could budge the markets. German unemployment data is due at 7:55 am GMT, and survey says we’ll see a decrease of 9,000 in the number of unemployed individuals in April, a soft followup to the 18,000 decline in March.

Then at 9:00 am GMT, we’ll take a look at euro zone-wide employment, as the unemployment rate is slated to rise from 10.8% to 10.9%.

And just in case you wanna catch the final manufacturing PMI (expected to remain at 46.0), tune in at 8:00 am GMT when it’s scheduled to come out.

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With poor economic data from the euro zone and risk aversion settling in markets yesterday, can you blame the euro bears for attacking? EUR/USD ended the day with an 84-pip loss at 1.3156, while EUR/GBP edged closer to its 2-year low at .8121.

The euro came back from the holidays on the wrong side of market sentiment as weaker-than-expected German employment figures greeted the day. The data showed that 19,000 workers went jobless in April, which missed expectations of a 9,000-increase in jobs.

Unemployment rates in Italy and the euro zone also disappointed expectations. Unemployment in the euro region reached a 15-year high at 10.9% in March, while Italy’s jobless rate also rose from 9.6% to 9.8%. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI in the euro zone slipped to 45.9 after showing a 46.0 reading in March.

Today we’ll see the region’s PPI report at 10:00 am GMT. However, all eyes will be on the ECB at 11:45 pm GMT when it announces its interest rate decision. Market gurus aren’t expecting a rate cut this month, but they’re gonna be watching if ECB head honcho Mario Draghi will hint at any monetary easing efforts in the near future. Recall that since its last interest rate statement, economic reports from the euro zone have been showing weaknesses.

Oh and don’t forget to keep tabs on the French and Spanish bond auctions also due today, will ya? Word in the hood is that investors are finding it harder to buy bonds from Spain (which had just been downgraded to BBB+ by the S&P) and France (which is about to hold a presidential election). Stay sharp in your trades, homies!

739

What an eventful day for the euro! With the Spanish bond auctions and the ECB rate statement going on, euro pairs were just all over the place as volatility spiked during the London session. How did those events turn out?

First up, the Spanish bond auction gave mixed results as they were able to reach their target bond sales but ended up having to pay higher yields. French bond auctions, on the other hand, were much more successful as borrowing costs declined for euro zone’s second largest economy. French 10-year bond yields were down from 3% to 2.92%, easing funding concerns in the euro zone and keeping the euro afloat against its major counterparts.

The ECB monetary policy decision also lifted the euro’s spirits as ECB President Mario Draghi made no mention of rate cuts or any kind of further easing AT ALL. The central bank kept rates on hold at 1.00% as expected as ECB policymakers still seem to be in a wait-and-see mode. With that, the euro was able to keep its head up, with EUR/USD closing only 3 pips below its 1.3156 open and EUR/JPY ending 2 pips up from its 105.44 open price.

Only the retail sales report for March is set for release from the euro zone today and this probably wouldn’t have much of an impact on the euro’s movement unless the actual figure comes in way worse or much better than the expected 0.1% uptick. Also keep an eye out for the upcoming NFP release or, better yet, read up on Forex Gump’s NFP preview if you’re planning to trade EUR/USD. Good luck!

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Yowza! After dropping 64 pips on Friday to close at 1.3089, EUR/USD has gapped down over 50 pips and is now sinking below the 1.3000 handle! Could this be a sign of more losses for the shared currency this week?

The euro has taken a hit over the past couple of days for a number of reasons.

First was the dismal U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which triggered a massive wave of risk aversion last Friday. Make sure to hit up my U.S. commentary for more details on that report homies!

Second, France now has a new president, Mr. Francois Hollande. Questions on whether he can get along with Germany and Chancellor Merkel and his lack of political experience may lead to some political instability, which is why some market players have decided to dump their euros.

Third, we’ve now got some political rumblings out of Greece, as Syriza is now ahead of the Socialist Pasok party and second in the overall rankings in the race for Parliament. The problem with this is that Syriza is anti-austerity and this could prove to be a stumbling block for Greece to receive bailout funds. Yikes!

Fourth, we can’t forget that the ECB recently released its interest rate decision but failed to establish whether or not it would be cutting rates. This has led to some uncertainty in the markets and has made the euro weaker across the board.

The only bit of good news we got last Friday was that euro zone retail sales came in slightly better-than-anticipated. Retail sales rose by 0.3% last month, after it was expected to have shot up by just 0.1%. Nevertheless, this was received just like a Ben Affleck performance. Sorry Ben, but you just got no game playa!

For today, we’ve got some second tier reports in the form of the Sentix investor confidence index and the German factory orders report, which are set to be released at 8:30 am and 10:00 am GMT respectively.

Investor confidence is expected to deteriorate further and print at -15.3, which would mark a downtick from last month’s -14.7 reading. Meanwhile, factory orders growth is seen to rise from 0.3% to 0.5% over the past month. Still, I doubt these reports will have much of an effect on the markets.

Instead, I suspect that the markets will be focusing on the French and Greek elections and the aftermath of the NFP report.

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The euro may have been off to a shaky start as both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY gapped down over the weekend, but these pairs managed to fill part of those gaps on Monday. EUR/USD opened at 1.3034, dipped to a low of 1.2955, then closed at 1.3057.

Euro zone economic reports came in mixed yesterday while political uncertainty in the region also affected the currency’s movement. First up, the Sentix investor confidence index for the euro zone missed expectations and printed a -24.5 reading, much lower than the estimated -15.3 figure and the previous month’s -14.7 reading. Later on, Germany posted a 2.2% increase in factory orders for March, way better than the consensus of a 0.5% uptick. On top of that, the previous month’s figure was revised upwards from 0.3% to 0.6%, giving the euro another boost.

Only the German industrial production report is on the euro zone’s agenda for today, and the report is expected to show a 0.8% increase for March. However, if the actual figure misses expectations or even posts another decline for the month, the euro could be forced to give up its recent gains. Keep an eye out for the actual figure due 10:00 am GMT.

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Yowza! The political uncertainty in Europe really did a number on the euro as the currency erased all of its gains from Monday. Surprisingly, both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY slid 45 pips lower yesterday! And who do we have to blame for the bearish sentiment for the euro? Greece!

It seems investors are shying away from the euro once again as political uncertainty continues to cloud the release of the next tranche of Greece’s bailout package. Some say that if Greece fails to put together a new government and pass new austerity measures, we could even see Greece get booted out of the euro zone! Ouch! To learn more about the iffy Greek situation, I suggest y’all check out Forex Gump’s blog. He wrote an interesting piece about the possibility of a “Grexit” that should fill you in on everything you should know.

In other news, the markets appear to have ignored Germany’s strong industrial production report, which printed a 2.8% increase in output instead of the 0.8% uptick that most had predicted. The previous month’s 1.3% decline was also revised upwards to a 0.3% slide. From where I’m standing, this just highlights the growing divide between Germany and the rest of the euro zone. While its neighbors are suffering from weak economic activity, Germany is chugging along solidly!

The only reports on tap for today will come in the form of German and French trade balance data. These probably won’t have much of an impact on euro price action, but they could be worth catching just in case they print huge surprises. You can catch the German trade balance (seen at a surplus of 13.4 billion EUR) at 6:00 am GMT, and the French trade balance (seen at a deficit of 5.8 billion EUR) at 6:45 am GMT.

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So long 1.3000! EUR/USD had been able to close above the major psychological handle for a couple of times in the past few months, but it looks like the euro didn’t have Lady Luck on its side yesterday. The pair tapped its 4-month low at 1.2911 before ending the day at 1.2947, 65 pips below its opening price.

The political drama surrounding Greece continued to weigh down on the shared currency. Yesterday, a couple of German officials hinted that their patience is already running low for the debt-ridden country. It was announced that only 4.2 billion EUR of the 5.2 billion aid package for Greece will be released for now. Whether or not the Greeks will get the remainder of it will be determined by the government’s ability to implement the previously-agreed austerity measures.

And as though the news wasn’t enough to upset investors, Spanish bond yields spiked above 6% too which only sparked funding concerns for the region’s fourth largest economy. Yikes!

It seems that risks of a Grexit and a contagion still remain to be the primary driving factors behind price action. But I wonder if perhaps economic reports from the euro zone will be able to sooth investors to some extent and help the euro pare some of its losses. Well, that is if they come in better-than-expected.

Today’s roster of economic data start off with the French industrial production report for March at 6:45 am GMT. It is eyed to come in at -0.4%.

Then at 8:00 am GMT, we’ll have the ECB monthly bulletin on tap. The report details the statistics reviewed by the central bank before it made its most recent interest rate decision as well as its economic outlook. If it proves to be more hawkish than expected, we could see the the euro rally. So watch out!

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Just when it looked like euro pairs were revving up for a bounce, risk aversion popped its head back in the markets and kept the euro’s gains in check. Still, EUR/JPY deserves mad props for putting an end to its losing streak and ending 40 pips up from its 103.09 open price. EUR/USD managed to trim its losses and close only 4 pips down from its 1.2948 open price.

Euro zone economic data came in mixed yesterday as France printed weaker than expected industrial production data while Italy chalked up a surprise 0.5% uptick in its version of the report. What really moved the euro yesterday was the drop in Spanish bond yields, helping alleviate funding concerns for euro zone’s third largest economy.

However, it wasn’t long before Greek political problems took center stage and weighed on the euro again. As it turns out, the odds aren’t looking too good for a coalition government yet many are hopeful that the third try would be the charm for Greece. Otherwise, they’d have no choice but to hold another round of elections next month, which would mean more political uncertainty for the country and more volatility for the euro.

There are no economic reports due from the euro zone today, which means that euro pairs could be moved by risk sentiment and news from the euro zone, particularly in Greece. Stay on your toes!

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For the seventh time in eight trading days, the euro finished weaker last Friday, as EUR/USD closed 21 pips lower at 1.2923. For the week, EUR/USD finished just over 100 pips below its weekly opening price. Will the euro continue to slide down the charts this week or can it make an unlikely comeback?

The major reason why the euro took an old school, back-alley beating last week was due to concerns surrounding Greece. With the New Democracy, Syriza, and Pasok political parties failing to form a coalition government, the chances of a Grexit are becoming higher than if you were to bet on the outside lines on a roulette table!

For today, we’ve got euro zone industrial production figures due at 9:00 am GMT. Expectations are that production picked up by 0.6% in March, which would be a nice follow-up to the 0.8% uptick we saw in February. If this comes in better-than-expected, it could provide the euro some nice support to go on a Monday rally.

Don’t forget that we’ve also got some Italian bond auctions during today’s London session. It should be interesting to see whether all the recent developments in the euro zone have taken its toll on Italian yields. Take note that the last auction resulted in yields of 5.84%. If we start seeing Italian yields creep back above 6.0%, it may trigger another run of risk aversion in the markets!

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This is turning into a bloodbath! EUR/USD marked its [B]FIFTH[/B] losing day yesterday as risk aversion reared its ugly head in the markets again. EUR/USD closed the day at 1.2836, 72 pips lower from its opening price.

Just like the previous days, risk aversion was the result of Greece’s political chaos. President Papoulias’ talks failed to create a unity government in the first round of talks yesterday which the speculation of a “Grexit.” Negotiations will continue today, and if that falls through again, we may see EUR/USD experience another sell-off.

On the economic front, there are a couple of medium-tier data scheduled for release.

Between 5:30 am GMT and 9:00 am GMT, the different members of the euro zone will release their GDP reports. First is France’s, then Germany’s, then Italy’s. The market expects the GDP report for the entire euro zone to show a 0.2% contraction.

The ZEW economic sentiment survey will also come out. It will publish at 9:00 am GMT and is predicted to print a reading of 11.7. If the actual reading beats forecast, we could see EUR/USD recover some of its losses.

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So much for making a comeback! After hitting an intraday high at 1.2871, EUR/USD came crashing down to finish at 1.2729, down 106 pips from its opening price. What rocked the euro’s socks this time around?

First we had mixed data from the euro zone.

Euro zone GDP figures were generally better than expected, as German GDP grew 0.5% last quarter, which was way higher than the projected 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, euro zone GDP figures printed a big fat 0%, but this was still better than the predicted 0.2% decline.

However, the German and euro zone ZEW economic sentiment reports both printed worse-than-expected, coming in at 10.8 and -2.4 respectively. Early estimates were for readings of 19.1 and 11.7. This indicates that sentiment in the euro zone is deteriorating, as economic conditions worsen and contagion fears are returning.

The straw that broke the euro’s back yesterday though was news that Greece would be holding a new election in June. Since the Syriza, New Democracy, and Pasok can’t get along, the Greek government felt it would be better to just have another election for Parliament seats. This news sent the euro sinking quickly during the latter part of the London session.

For today, we’ve got CPI figures on tap at 9:00 am GMT. Word on the street is that headline inflation will clock in at 2.6% while headline inflation will print a figure of 1.5%, which would in line with what we saw last month. If these figures come in lower-than-expected, it could give the ECB some room for more quantitative easing measures, so make sure you tune in and listen for the results!

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Talk about having a bad week! Euro bulls lost to the bears for the seventh day in a row yesterday. EUR/USD sank to its 4-month low at 1.2682 before ending the day at 1.2709, 20 pips below its opening price.

But I guess you can say that the euro has seen worse days. It only suffered a measly 9-pip loss to the yen as EUR/JPY closed at 102.06. In fact, it even scored a win against the pound. EUR/GBP ended yesterday’s trading at .7989 after opening at .7958.

Perhaps the relatively positive roster of reports that we got from the region yesterday helped the euro limit its losses. We saw that the region-wide CPI remained steady at 2.6% in April and came in just as expected. Excluding volatile items, the core reading topped expectations by 0.1% when it printed at 1.6%. The region’s trade balance also came in in-line with forecasts, showing that exports outpaced imports by 4.3 billion EUR, indicating an improvement in March from February’s 4.0 billion EUR trade surplus.

Don’t start thinking that Europe’s debt woes have gone away though! The ECB announced yesterday that it stopped providing cash to some Greek banks that were extremely undercapitalized and instead put them under an emergency liquidity assistance program.

Of course, the news only intensified fears of a Grexit.

With that in mind, it’s noteworthy to mention again that the losses which the euro suffered yesterday weren’t as severe as what we’ve seen earlier on in the week. Could it be possible that markets are starting to price in a Greek exit from the euro zone and we could see the currency rally soon? Or could the euro’s price action yesterday signify nothing more than just a pullback?

Hmmm, it might be too early to say. But perhaps paying attention to the shared currency’s performance in today’s trading will give us more insight on my little theory.

Our forex calendar is blank for reports from the euro zone today. But I bet we’ll have more juicy updates regarding Greece. So keep an ear out, folks!

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Rough day for the euro, as EUR/USD tested new lows at 1.2670, while EUR/JPY sank over 120 pips to establish new lows at 100.70. Can the euro pare some of its losses or will the beatings continue today?

The euro was hobbled yesterday as 10-year Spanish bond yields popped back above 6.0% Meanwhile, Spanish bank Baxia, which was bought out by the government recently, just saw 1 billion EUR vanish off its balance sheet as depositors withdrew their funds. This doesn’t bode well, as not only does this mean that consumers are afraid of leaving their money in the bank, but the bank will also have a harder time lending and carrying out its operations.

Contagion fears are beginning to emerge again so make sure you keep an eye out for more developments from Spain, as this could spur on risk aversion.

Today we’ve got the German PPI figures due at 6:00 am GMT. Expectations are that producers paid 0.4% more for their raw materials last month. Remember, this is another indicator of inflation, as producers normally simply just pass any additional production costs to consumers. If it comes in lower-than-expected, it may indicate that inflation remains subdued in Germany.

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Finally, the euro’s losing streak ends at eight! EUR/USD closed last week 72 pips above Friday’s open at 1.2776. Meanwhile, against the yen, the euro was able to score a 35-pip win at 101.02. What turned around the shared currency’s luck?

Nothing much really. In fact, there were actually more bad news in the headlines for Europe last Friday.

For one, the German PPI report for April came in lower at 0.2% versus the 0.4% consensus. Even worse, Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields spiked up to 6.05% and 6.35%, respectively. This happened following the announcement of renowned credit rating agency Moody’s of downgrading several Italian and Spanish banks. Yikes!

Some analysts say that investors might have only taken profits on Friday and the excitement over the Facebook IPO might have helped the euro push higher.

With that in mind, they warn that we could see the euro get sold off even further this week especially since there really weren’t any significant decisions made to address the debt crisis during the G8 meetings over the weekend. They could be right, so be sure you be careful, ayt??

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Thanks to a little bit of market optimism from the G8 meetings over the weekend, the euro was able to continue rebounding and post another winning day against the safe haven dollar. EUR/USD closed out the day at 1.2816, 33 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian session.

Last week, sentiment in the foreign exchange market was at a low point as Greece’s political problems led to a lot of speculation of a “Grexit.” But during the G8 summit, European leader showed positivity as they reaffirmed the importance of Greece remaining in the euro zone. Moreover, the leaders also discussed ways to strengthen growth in the euro zone.

Since there are no red flags on euro zone’s forex calendar today, I only see two likely scenarios for the euro today. The first one is that the euro will continue to gain as the “short squeeze” continues. The euro has been severely oversold and traders may start taking profit.

The second possible scenario is that the euro will simply consolidate. Market sentiment seems to be mixed now. One the one hand, a “Grexit” is still in the cards but on the other hand, European leaders want Greece to stay in the euro zone.

As for a complete reversal… Well, I don’t see the euro rallying strongly just yet. The macroeconomic environment hasn’t really changed and I don’t see any major catalysts today.

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And it returns! No, I’m not talking about the Dark Knight. I’m referring to good ole risk aversion! The euro found itself crashing again as EUR/USD fell from the 1.2800 area and closed at 1.2680. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, tried to rally from its 101.63 open but was rejected at the 102.00 handle.

As Forex Gump predicted in his article reviewing the G8 summit and the bout of optimism that followed, the risk rallies were bound to be short-lived. The euro sold off prior to this week’s EU summit as it appears that traders are losing hope about a resolution to the Grexit scenario.

You see, newly-elected French President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel just can’t see eye to eye when it comes to deciding the best plan of action to take. On the one hand, Hollande believes that Greece should aim for economic growth and that introducing Eurobonds could help alleviate the situation. On the other hand, Merkel insists that austerity measures are the key to solving the crisis and remains completely against the idea of Eurobonds.

It didn’t help that former Greek Prime Minister Papademos started blabbing about Greece’s preparations for exiting the euro zone, convincing market participants that this possibility is slowly turning to reality.

As for economic data, both the industrial new orders report and the current account balance are set for release from the euro zone today. After slipping by 1.2% in February, industrial new orders are expected to dip by 0.1% for March. Meanwhile, the current account deficit of 1.3 billion EUR in February is expected to turn into a 4.7 billion EUR surplus for March. However, these reports aren’t expected to have a huge influence on the euro’s movement today as all eyes and ears are on the EU summit. Stay on your toes!

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Stop, drop, kaboom! The euro came under a lot of selling pressure again yesterday as “Grexit” concerns continued to plague the foreign exchange market. EUR/USD closed out the U.S. trading session with a 79-pip loss at 1.2601.

It appears that the market isn’t letting this one go easily. Fears regarding Greece’s ability to remain in the euro zone still persist, which is hurting the euro a lot. Even the better-than-expected economic reports yesterday failed to provide support for the euro (Current Account Balance came in at 9.1 billion EUR surplus versus the 4.7 billion EUR surplus forecast while the Industrial New Orders showed a 1.8% gain versus the 0.1% decline expected).

Today, the economic docket has a lot in store for us. Every half hour starting 7:00 am GMT, the PMIs for the major members of the euro zone will begin publishing. First up is France’s, followed by Germany’s, then finally at 8:00 am GMT is the PMI for the entire region. These reports tend to have a strong impact on the euro, so make sure you catch ‘em!

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And it’s strike three for the euro! No thanks to weak economic data and a disappointing speech from ECB’s Draghi, the euro continued its losing streak against its major counterparts. EUR/USD fell by another 68 pips to 1.2533, while EUR/GBP capped the day right at .8000.

As if fears of a Greek exit wasn’t enough to energize the euro bears, most of the region’s PMI numbers also disappointed expectations. Manufacturing PMIs from France, Germany, and the euro region all printed weaker than their previous figures.

Meanwhile, Germany was the only economy that was spared from weaker services PMI. All isn’t good in Merkel’s country though. Germany’s Ifo business climate index, a measure of investor confidence, fell to a 106.9 reading in May after clocking in at 109.9 in April.

Will the German consumer climate report at 6:00 am GMT show the same weakness in the economy? Only that and the Italian retail sales report at 8:00 am GMT is scheduled to come out of the region today, so you better keep your eyes peeled for any euro zone official that might shake risk sentiment!

Word on the hood is that market players are waiting for the ECB to show signs of helping Greece before they let up on the euro selling. Will the ECB rise to market expectations? Stay at the edge of your seats!

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With the threat of a “Grexit” still looming over its head, the euro found itself continuing its steady crawl down the charts last Friday. It lost another 19 pips to the dollar as EUR/USD greeted the weekend at 1.2513, while EUR/JPY slid down another 9 pips to 99.68.

However, it seems that bearish sentiment for the euro has eased over the weekend as euro crosses all gapped up to start the week. Still, the euro ain’t out of the woods! The threat of a Grexit is as real as ever, homies!

In other news, the homeboys that predicted that the German GfK consumer climate report would come in at a reading of 5.7 again were right on the money! The index stayed flat for the month of May, indicating stability at the start of the summer. I did a little research, and as it turns out, consumers have become more optimistic and are now more willing to spend their dough! Leave it to Germany to show the rest of the euro zone how its done!

Meanwhile, Italian retail sales disappointed as it showed a 0.2% decline (versus forecasts that called for a 0.1% decrease) following the previous month’s solid 0.9% surge.

If you plan on trading the euro today, take note that French and German banks will be closed in observance of Whit Monday. As for the rest of the week, we’ll see a bunch of tier 2 reports. One of the main events we have to watch out for is the Italian 10-year bond auction on Wednesday. Weak results could indicate contagion and trigger another bout of risk aversion, so be sure to tune in!