Daily Economic Commentary: Euro zone

Trading Discussion News and Economy
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For the second day in a row, the EURUSD bulls were able to keep support at the 1.1900 handle intact. The EURUSD found itself pacing backed and forth between 1.1900 and 1.2000 throughout all three trading session before eventually settling at 1.1947 at the end of the day.

Two important events happened yesterday that kept the euro’s head above water.

The first event was the release of the German industrial production report. The report showed that production in April climbed 0.9%, which was higher than the 0.7% increase initially expected. Year-on-year, this translated to a 13.3% growth. Since weakening currency makes a country’s exports more affordable, the depreciation of the euro in the past couple of months boosted foreign demand for Germany’s products.

The second one came in the form of a central bank intervention. Apparently, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to intervene in the markets again yesterday by buying up the euro against the franc. This helped the euro rally across the board, even against the dollar.

Euro zone’s economic calendar presents no red flags, so we could see the EURUSD maintain its trading range again today.

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The EURUSD pair pulled up to a high of 1.2074 during the US session as risk appetite popped its head back in the markets. Euro zone didn’t release any economic reports yesterday as it geared up for the ECB rate statement today.

Will the euro’s rebound last or is it just temporary? Words from ECB policymakers, particularly central bank head Jean-Claude Trichet, could determine whether the euro would resume its downtrend or not. Although the ECB is expected to keep rates at 1.00%, they could highlight the improvements in their economy brought about by the weakening euro. For one, a weaker euro makes euro zone exports cheaper and more attractive to their trade partners. The ECB is also set to give its forecasts on growth and inflation, both of which could take a hit from the ongoing debt crisis and the planned austerity measures. My buddy Forex Gump talked about the effects of austerity measures in his recent entry so I suggest you check it out.

Other economic reports due today are the German final CPI, French industrial production, French non-farm payrolls, and Italian industrial production data. Although these reports are expected to post improvements over their previous figures, economic data could be upstaged by the much-awaited ECB statement due 11:45 am GMT.

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Wham, bam, thank you Mr. Risk Appetite! Okay, so that didn’t rhyme so well, but you got the point right? Risk appetite was the name of the game yesterday, which helped push the euro to its best performance this week. The EURUSD rose to 1.2140, up 150 pips from its starting point for the day!

The European Central Bank released its interest rate decision yesterday, and as expected, the bank decided to keep rates at current levels. The central bank also plans to keep buying government bonds, which should help continue providing additional liquidity for credit markets. According to ECB President Jean Claude Trichet, the bank is taking the appropriate measures to help stabilize the euro zone.

One thing to take note of is that the bank decided against expanding its bond purchase program, instead preferring to use other means to stimulate liquidity in the markets. One such tool is provide three month loans at a fixed rate, as opposed to just flooding the market with more money. Another thing I want to point out is that the bank also raised its 2010 GDP forecasts, as they now expect the economy to grow at least 0.7%, up from initial forecasts of a 0.4% rise.

By raising their expectations and not making use of additional stimulus tools, they ECB sent the message that they feel that the economy can turn around with the current measures in place. Pretty bold if you ask me, but hey, what were they supposed to do? They’re the ECB for crying out loud – they need to do their best to calm the markets!

In any case, this helped boost risk taking in the markets, which helped rallies in other higher yielding currencies. Good day to be risk hungry eh?

No major data scheduled for release today, but watch out for any strong moves. Traders may simply decide to take some profit off the board, which could lead to a sell off in the euro. Then again, maybe the tables have turned, and its time for the euro to shine! In any case, keep those risk management rules in check and be careful out there!

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After gaining for three straight days, the euro tripped last Friday and gave up some of its gains. The euro ended the week and the US trading session at 1.2093 against the dollar, around 50 pips lower from its Asian session price that day.

The main reason the euro failed to sustain its rally last Friday was the worse-than-expected results on the US retail sales. According to the report, sales at the retail sector fell by 1.2%, marking its first decline in eight months. The unexpected results tempered the growing optimism on global economic recovery and prevented the euro from piercing through resistance at 1.2150 versus the dollar.

Today, await the results of euro zone’s April industrial production report at 9:00 am GMT. The expectation is a rise 0.7%, which is slightly lower than the 1.3% increase from March. If the actual figure comes in higher, we could see the 1.2200 handle on the EURUSD break.

Looking further ahead the week, the only red flag on to keep an eye out for is the German ZEW survey on Tuesday. Set to come out at 9:00 am GMT, it is predicted to print 42, down from 45.8 seen the month before. The survey is designed to see how investors and economic analysts see Germany’s economy through a positive/negative scale. Readings above 0 means they are optimistic about the outlook of Germany, while readings below 0 mean otherwise.

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Newsflash! Greece received another downgrade from a credit rating agency. Not so much of a surprise, isn’t it? What’s more surprising is that the euro even rallied against the greenback and closed at 1.2253, up from its open price of 1.2116.

Moody’s downgraded Greece’s debt by four notches, pushing it down to junk bond status. This was nothing new for traders since Standard and Poor’s, another credit rating agency, already doled a downgrade to Greece almost two months ago. According to Moody’s, their recent downgrade was caused by doubts that Greece would be able to achieve fiscal stability amidst their austerity measures.

On the bright side, the sole economic report released from the euro zone came in better than expected. Industrial production reportedly climbed by 0.8% in April, a notch higher than the consensus of a 0.7% increase. Although the April figure is much less than the previously seen 1.5% industrial production growth, it still marks the indicators eleventh consecutive monthly uptick. This suggests that production in the euro zone remains resilient in the face of debt woes. Maybe the euro’s slide, which makes euro zone exports cheaper and more attractive, is really doing the trick in boosting demand and production…

Up ahead, Germany is set to release the results of its ZEW economic sentiment survey. At 9:00 am GMT, find out of the German ZEW reading for June rises from 45.8 to 48.7 as expected. Better than expected results could push the euro even higher because these would suggest that investors and analysts are more optimistic about economic conditions in Germany. At the same time, the ZEW economic sentiment reading for the entire euro zone is due. Similarly, the euro zone ZEW reading is expected to post an improvement from 37.6 to 41.2 this month.

Also due today are the quarterly employment change report and the euro zone trade balance. Although both reports are slated to have a minimal impact on the euro’s movement, keep an eye out for their release at 9:00 am GMT just in case there are huge surprises in store. Would there be a positive employment change figure after six months of consecutive declines? Or would there be a large improvement in euro zone’s trade surplus, which is expected to widen from 0.6 billion EUR to 1.7 billion EUR? Stay tuned!

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Shabam! Despite some poor economic data releases, the euro was able to post another round of gains versus the dollar. The EURUSD rose over 100 pips, to close at 1.2347. Where did all the sellers go?

The ZEW economic reports released yesterday revealed the confidence in the euro zone has dropped. The German and euro zone wide editions printed readings of 28.7 and 18.8 respectively, much lower than initial forecasts of a rise to 48.7 and 41.2. While this was a huge drop, I’m not too surprised. After all, things look pretty bleak in the euro zone right now, with debt concerns popping up left and right.

Trade balance figures were also disappointing, as a surplus of 1.4 billion EUR was posted, failing to meet a consensus figure of 1.7 billion EUR. Still, I wouldn’t be too worried about this, as the euro is getting dirt cheap (relatively speaking of course!). With the euro hitting 5 year lows in May, we may see this figure rise in coming months. Remember, a cheap currency helps boost exports because it effectively makes those goods more attractive due to their cheaper price.

Despite the poor data, we saw the euro rise up as risk appetite seems to be revving up. It seems that we’re seeing some short covering taking place, with traders reversing their previous short euro positions. Others are saying that the recent bullishness of the euro could have stemmed from Spain having a successful auction of new government debt.

For today, we’ve got inflation data on deck, as the consumer price index will be released at 9:00 am GMT. The headline report is projected to post an annualized increase in consumer prices of 1.6%, keeping in pace with May’s figure.

Watch out if the report prints a higher than expected figure. It might just spark speculation that the ECB will consider raising interest rates. While I don’t think the ECB will raise rates any time soon, given how the euro has been rising even with the release of poor data, what is there to stop it from rising when good news comes out?

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After gaining strongly for two consecutive days, the euro found itself reversing its gains yesterday. The combination of weaker US equity indices and rumors of Spain needing aid from the IMF/EU pushed the EURUSD back down below the 1.2300 handle.

If I remember correctly, the weakness of Spain’s financial sector first hit main stream a couple of weeks ago when the country’s central bank had to seize savings bank CajaSur because it lost almost 426 million EUR in revenues in 2009.

Data that came out yesterday was just as expected, with the consumer price index showing a 1.6% rise. The core version of the report, which excludes the prices of volatile items such as fuel and food, was also in line with forecast and revealed a 0.8% increase.

With only a couple of low-key reports due today, euro zone’s economic calendar presents very little reports of interest. This means that volatility probably won’t pick up until the afternoon trading session rolls along and economic reports from the US starts publishing.

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Even though euro zone’s second largest economy failed to score a victory in their World Cup match yesterday, the euro chalked up some wins against the Greenback and the yen. After all that action, the EURUSD chilled out near 1.2400 while the EURJPY stayed safely above the 112.00 handle.

In the absence of economic figures from the euro zone, the euro had to depend on other market events to determine its direction. Fortunately, the Spain’s bond auctions went better than expected and boosted the euro. It turns out that demand for 10-year and 30-year Spanish bonds were higher than forecast, suggesting that Spain won’t have such a tough time securing funding for its debt.

For today, Germany is set to release its PPI report at 6:00 am GMT. This could show that producer prices climbed by 0.2% in May, slightly less than the 0.8% uptick seen a month earlier. The euro could find it difficult to sustain its gains if the actual figure comes in less than expected because that would imply that inflationary pressures are subsiding, pulling the ECB farther away from a rate hike.

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With no major news coming out on Friday, euro trading was as tight as a rockstar’s leggings. The EURUSD traded within a range of just 70 pips. Still, the markets got a nice surprise over the weekend, which caused higher yielding currencies like the euro to gap up!

The gap up was apparently caused by news that China kick to the curb the yuan’s peg to the dollar. Okay fine, they won’t be kicking it out to be curb, but they’ll be keeping a longer leash and allow it to appreciate. This seems to have sparked risk appetite, as it gives Chinese importers more purchasing power, which could lead to more demand.

The only report released last Friday was the euro zone producer price index. Manufacturers rose their prices by 0.3% last May, after prices were expected to rise by just 0.2%. This indicates that inflation is rising slowly, which gives the ECB reason to raise interest rates. Still, given the current situation, I highly doubt that this will be an issue for some time to come. There’s just too much uncertainty right now that the central bank can’t afford to withdraw any stimulus at the moment!

Looking ahead, we’ve got a slew of economic reports coming out, but only a couple of red flags.

Today, watch out for ECB President Jean Claude Trichet’s speech at 2:30 pm GMT. He will be talking before the European Parliament regarding economic and monetary policy. Chances are, he will be talking about the recent government bond purchases that the ECB has recently approved. Since he will be talking at the same time that the European markets will be closing shop, we may see some wild moves! Be careful!

As for the rest of the week, watch out for the German Ifo business climate index (Tuesday), as well as German and French purchasing manager’s index reports (Wednesday). If these reports all come in better than expected, it could give the euro the boost it needs to continue its recent momentum.

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After kicking off the week strongly with a 50 pip gap higher, the EURUSD found itself being beaten furiously to a pulp by risk aversion to end the day 150 pips lower.

The wave of risk aversion seems to have rooted from two sources. The first one came from Germany’s Bundesbank when it reported that a weak euro will be good for the country’s growth. The second one was from rumors going around that the European stress tests indicate that some banks need to gather more funds to recapitalize. Hmm, has the EURUSD’s bullish run come to an end?

Up ahead, at 8:00 am GMT, traders’ focus will turn to theGerman Ifo business climate survey and euro zone’s current account balance. The Ifo survey, which is designed to determine the direction of Germany’s economy over the next six months, is predicted to print a reading of 101.2 for June. Meanwhile, the euro zone’s current balance is expected to show a surplus of 1.1 billion EUR in May, down the 1.7 billion EUR surplus seen the month before. Keep a close eye on these reports, as they could determine whether support at the 1.2300 handle would break or not!

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The euro seemed to ignore the strong results of the German Ifo business climate survey and just focused on the euro zone’s dismal current account deficit. With that, the EURUSD slid all the way down to a low of 1.2251 while the EURJPY fell towards the 111.00 area.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index posted an upside surprise as it climbed from 101.5 to 101.8 in June. It turns out that the weakening of the euro has made businessmen more optimistic about future business activity. After all, a weaker euro makes euro zone exports relatively cheaper and more attractive to their trade partners. Aside from that, the PBOC’s decision to adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy could increase Chinese firms’ purchasing power, allowing them to purchase more goods from euro zone economies.

However, the euro zone’s disappointing current account balance prevented the euro from rallying. The report showed that the surplus of 1.5 billion EUR in April turned to a nasty 5.1 billion EUR deficit in May because of a downturn in exports and a large capital outflow from the euro zone. That’s most likely because investors pulled a bunch of funds out of the region at the height of the debt crisis.

For today, sit tight for the release of the PMI figures from Germany, France, and the entire euro zone. The fun starts at 7:00 am GMT, when France reports its manufacturing and services PMI readings for June. Both accounts are slated to post declines for the month. Similarly, Germany’s manufacturing PMI could dip from 58.4 to 58.2 while its services PMI could drop from 54.8 to 54.5. Euro zone manufacturing and services PMI readings could also retreat to 55.4 and 56.1 respectively. My my, it looks like the debt crisis took its toll on the manufacturing and services industries. Worse than expected figures could push the euro even lower.

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What a weird turn of events! Despite poor data across the globe and some dovish comments by Fed officials, the EURUSD was able to withstand earlier loses, and finished 35 pips higher for the day. After hitting an intraday low of 1.2209, the pair rose up to end the day at 1.2310. What gives?

The euro zone got some relatively good news once PMI figures from Germany, France and the euro zone released yesterday. For the most part, all the reports came in line with consensus, while also staying above the boom or bust 50.0 mark. I have a feeling that the recent slide of the euro has helped the manufacturing and services industries, as their exports have become effectively more affordable compared to their competitors. Still, this didn’t really give the euro a boost during the earlier stages of the European session.

Interestingly, the euro rebounded late in the US session, even though Fed officials made some dovish comments about the state of the US economy. In addition to that, we didn’t see much of a euro sell-off even though existing home sales data was weak. Are traders are just really risk hungry right now?

For today, no red flags are coming up, but watch out for French consumer spending data (6:45 am) as well as the euro zone monthly industrial new orders report (9:00 am GMT). The French are expected to have increased their spending by 0.3% during the month of March, a nice improvement over the 1.2% drop seen in April. Meanwhile, industrial orders are projected to have risen by 1.6% in April. If these reports come in better than anticipated, we may see the euro continue where it left off yesterday.

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The euro’s price action yesterday was as crazy as a table tennis match! After experiencing a quick sell-off during the Asian trading session, the euro bounced back furiously when the US trading session went underway. The EURUSD ended the day at 1.2325, barely changed from its opening price of 1.2310.

As for the economic data, well, they were as mixed as a bag of nuts! The report on French consumer spending came in above expectations and surprised everyone by printing a rise of 0.7% In May. Meanwhile, euro zone industrial orders was reported to have increased by only 0.6%, one percent below forecast.

No biggies on euro zone’s economic calendar today so we could see the euro mirror its price action yesterday and ping pong around major highs and lows!

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Bust out your vuvuzelas because Germany just clobbered England during their World Cup match! The EURUSD must’ve seen this coming because it rallied from a low of 1.2254 all the way up to a high of 1.2396 before the weekend.

Germany also displayed signs of strength in the economic arena as it reported a 0.6% increase in import prices for May, marking its eighth consecutive monthly rise. Although still below the 2.0% gain seen in April, the May figure was considerably better than the projected 0.1% uptick. If Germany keeps this up, stronger inflationary pressures could eventually convince the ECB to hike interest rates. Find out whether the rise in import prices had a significant effect on Germany’s CPI, which is set for release today. Just like in May, a mere 0.1% uptick is expected.

By Wednesday, Germany will release another economic report, namely its unemployment change data for May. The number of unemployed people is estimated to drop by 23,000 during the month, a smaller decline compared to the 45,000 decrease in unemployment in April. Also due on Wednesday is the euro zone’s CPI reading for June, which is expected to print an annualized 1.5% increase.

On Friday, it’ll be euro zone’s turn to release its employment report. Its unemployment rate is slated to hold steady at 10.1% for May but any surprise improvements could allow the euro to push for more gains.

That’s pretty much it for the euro zone this week, in terms of economic releases at least. Keep an eye out for any updates on the euro zone’s finances, particularly for news on possible or actual downgrades. And don’t forget to tune in for Germany’s match with Argentina during the World Cup quarter-finals!

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The euro started the week off on the wrong side of the bed, as it crapped out against the dollar. EURUSD dropped almost 100 pips from its opening price, to end yesterday at 1.2273. It looks like there are still some euro bears out there after all!

Who was the culprit behind the euro’s decline? Was it the German consumer price index report? After all, while monthly figures came in line with consensus by printing a 0.1% uptick in prices the past month, the yearly figure showed a rise of just 0.9%, slightly below forecast of a 1.0% rise. This indicates that inflationary pressures remain subdued, giving less reason for the European Central Bank to raise rates any time soon. Still, I don’t think that this was the catalyst that triggered the sharp down move in the euro.

It seems that traders are still cautious about buying up the euro. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the markets and many market participants are still waiting for the results of German bank stress tests. We all know that the euro zone’s situation doesn’t exactly look too promising, so I think the recent up move in the euro the past couple of weeks was probably just the result of a short squeeze.

No economic reports will be released today, but forget that this week marks the quarterly and half-year point in most countries. Traders and companies may be fixing their books, so we may see some added volatility even without any concrete data.

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No thanks to the combination of poor economic reports and the news that the Greeks have staged nationwide protests against the Government’s planned austerity measures, the euro took a massive hit to the gut yesterday. The euro was the weakest currency across the board, posting new multi-year lows against both the yen and the Swissy.

The not-so-good data I’m talking about came from two of the world’s biggest nations – China and the US. Apparently, China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) that is designed to see how well (or badly) the country’s manufacturing industry is doing fell to 53.2 this month, down 0.7 points from May. In the US, the Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence survey printed a reading of 52.9, which was significantly below the 62.8 reading initially predicted. The weak results on China’s PMI and the CB consumer confidence survey gave reason for traders to become risk-averse, which was unsupportive for the euro.

Up ahead, two important economic reports will be published.

The first one comes in the form of the German unemployment change. Scheduled to print at 7:55 am GMT, it is slated to show that the number of unemployed people went down by 30,000 in May. Declining levels of unemployment is good for the economy, because the number of people employed has a direct impact on consumer spending and consequently, growth.

The second one is the flash consumer price index (CPI) at 9:00 am GMT. The CPI, which measures the average increase (or decrease) in the prices of consumer goods and services, is predicted to show a 1.5% increase for this month, 0.1% lower than the rise seen the month before. If the actual figure comes in higher, we could see some buying support for the euro.

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The euro recouped some of its losses against the Greenback as it climbed from a low of 1.2166 to a high of 1.2304. Similarly, EURJPY paused from making further declines as it rallied to a high of 109.13 before closing at 108.57.

Euro zone economic figures came in weaker than expected yesterday. Germany’s unemployment change report posted a 21,000 decrease in joblessness instead of the projected 23,000 reading for May. This was almost half as much as the 41,000 decline in unemployment seen in April, which suggests that the improvement in Germany’s labor market is slowing down.

Meanwhile, the euro zone CPI flash estimate for June landed at 1.4%, a notch short of the estimated 1.5% increase in price levels. This was also less than the annualized 1.6% reading for May, reflecting how inflationary pressures toned down during the month.

Despite these bleak figures, the euro was able to stay resilient to the surge in risk aversion yesterday. Apparently, the ECB announced that it would lend only 131.9 billion EUR to euro zone banks, much less than what analysts were expecting. This implies that funding pressures among euro zone banks are easing and that they don’t need that much help from the ECB. This kept the euro afloat amidst the sell-off in higher-yielding currencies spurred by the weaker than expected US ADP non-farm employment report.

The only high-impact release on euro zone’s calendar today is Germany’s retail sales report. It is expected to print a 0.5% rebound in May after dropping by 0.5% in April. A stronger than expected figure would signify that consumer spending recovered in euro zone’s largest economy, providing support for the euro. Watch out for that at 6:00 am GMT.

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KA-CHING! Nope, that wasn’t the sound from a wanna-be Car character, but the sound of euro cash registers ringing yesterday! After hitting an intraday low of 1.2195, EURUSD rose more than 300 pips to close at 1.2518. Ka-ching, ka-ching!

Now I ain’t quite sure what’s happening right now. Despite the release of poor US data, the euro managed to post its best single day performance in over a year. Normally, poor data has led to dollar rallies across the board, but yesterday, we saw the dollar take a massive whooping. Is this a shift back to fundamentals and away from the usual sentiment based moves? Not that I’m convinced the euro zone’s situation is getting better, but for now, I suppose we should take a wait and see approach.

Clearly though, the rise in the euro was not driven by any exceptional news back home. For one, ratings agency Moody’s has now put Spain’s debt on its “we should downgrade these bad boy (bonds) – they don’t deserve an AAA rating” watch list. Still, the markets didn’t really mind this news. I guess even they have priced in any possible downgrades on Spanish debt!

In other news, German retail sales rebounded and printed a 0.4% increase in May, a tad lower than the expected 0.5% figure. Meanwhile, the euro zone manufacturing PMI reports basically came in line to meet consensus. While this was okay news, it certainly isn’t anything to jump for joy for.

Today, we could get a clearer indication of where the market is headed. On the European side, we’ve got euro zone unemployment data and producer price index figures coming out at 9:00 am GMT. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 10.1%.

Meanwhile, producer prices are expected to have risen by 3.1% in the past year. This would give the impression that inflation is rising, because whenever companies are forced to pay more for their input goods, they like to pass any additional costs to consumers. I know, I know – those sneaky capitalists! But hey, that’s what makes the world go round! If prices rise, it would indicate rising demand and in turn, rising inflation, which would give reason for the ECB to actually raise rates.

Then again… these reports may have no effect whatsoever on the markets. Why not? Well, it’s NFP Friday my friend! And you know what that means! Time to bust out the popcorn and watch the markets like its Black Hawk Down – it’s gonna be crazy!

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EURUSD traded higher on Friday as it appears to have found support at the 1.2500 handle. It reached a high 1.2612 before retracing some of the gains to closed the week with a 36-pip gain at 1.2550.

The euro was still groovin’ with the bulls on Friday, and this time, it was to the beat of the disappointing US NFP report. It started rolling on the pip-river earlier last week when tensions eased about the region’s liquidity and solvency problems. On Wednesday, the European Central Bankannounced that it’s gonna lower its funding to banks and Spain’s bond auction came out a success on Thursday.

It seems like the market is starting to see past euro zone’s concerns. Since the debt crisis became focus of the markets, the euro would usually take a beating whenever reports that threatened global economic recovery came out.

So are we seeing a return to the fundamentals? Hmm… I’m not really sure. But I do know that Friday’s reports also helped tone down the debt crisis noise to let the euro move its currency-hips like yeah!

In any case, let’s take a look at some data released from the euro zone. The unemployment rate for May posted a 10% increase, beating the consensus by 0.1% and maintaining April’s figure. Although it wasn’t really impressive enough to get rumors for an interest rate hike going, the PPI that hit the market’s target at 0.3% was good enough to keep the euro’s tempo up.

Find out if the euro can still pip-trot up the charts with today’s reports. The final PMI for services is due to be announced today at 8:00 am GMT. It is seen to have been unchanged in June from May’s 55.4 implying that the servicing sector expanded. And then we have the retail sales data to look out for at 9:00 am GMT. It is expected to reveal that people shopped more at 0.1% in May after April’s revised -1.5%.

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Zzz… While the Americans were enjoying their fireworks, euro traders were seeing none in their charts. EURUSD traded along a tight 54-pip range that closed at 1.2530 after opening at 1.2563. Meanwhile, EURJPY ended the day 26 pips lower than its open price at 109.95.

The PMI reports didn’t help the euro win the ranging battles yesterday when it posted mixed results. The survey for Italy’s purchasing managers for June was printed at 51.5 after May’s 53.7 figure and the 53.5 index expectations.

France’s PMI also showed that purchasing managers were a little less confident on the services industry in May at 60.8 compared to April’s 61.6 figure. I guess their FIFA World Cup team isn’t the country’s biggest problem, eh?

Germany brought home the bacon for the euro zone, and no, it had nothing to do with their team making the FIFA semis. Their final PMI for June displayed an uptick at 54.8 from May’s 54.6 index figure.

The July Sentix investor confidence report also contributed to the euro when the pessimism eased up at -1.3 from the expected -5 and June’s -4.1 figures.

Maybe the Sentix and German reports just weren’t charming enough, because the traders took the mixed signals as a sign that the ECBmight keep their interest rates low much longer than expected.

No reports will be released today, but the US bulls and bears will be waking up from their hibernation and they are going to be hungry for some pips!