With positive data out of the euro zone, the euro strut through the charts with so much swag like Robin Thicke. Yesterday, it was able to pare its loss to the dollar on Friday when EUR/USD closed higher at 1.3065 after opening at 1.3020. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY finished with an 81-pip gain at 130.11.
The final EZ manufacturing PMI reading for June was upwardly revised to 48.8 from 48.7. At the same time, manufacturing PMIs out of Spain and Italy topped market expectations. Spain’s PMI came in at 50.0 (printing its first expansionary reading in 2 years!) while the consensus was at 48.9. That of Italy was at 49.1, higher that the 47.8 figure that analysts estimated. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for May came in better than expected at 12.1% versus the 12.3% forecast.
Today, a couple of reports are scheduled for release for the euro. Given how yesterday’s roster moved the shared currency, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some volatility on the euro following the release of the reports we have today. So make sure you don’t miss them!We kick things off at 7:00 am GMT when the Spanish unemployment change report for June is released. It is seen to come in at -83,500. Then at 9:00 am GMT, the PPI report for May is eyed at -0.2%.
After a few days of reprieve, EUR/USD returned to its downtrend yesterday and fell to its lowest level in one month. The pair began the day at 1.3064 and found itself sitting 88 pips lower at 1.2976 by the end of the New York trading session.
The pair took a dive due to the resignation of Portugal Foreign Minister Paulo Portas. The news was taken by the market as bearish for the euro, as it could further destabilize the already frail coalition government. Since its formation in 2011, it has been riddled with criticism due to unpopular austerity measures implemented to meet international bailout requirements.
Data from the euro zone was mixed. On the one hand, the Spanish Unemployment Change came in significantly better than expected, showing that the number of jobless people fell 127,200 in June. The forecast was for only an 83,500 reduction. On the other hand, euro zone’s Producer Price Index for the month May failed to meet forecast. It printed a decline of 0.3%, which was slightly lower than the 0.2% decrease initially anticipated.
No high impact reports on euro zone’s calendar today, but there are a couple tier 2 events. Starting at 7:15 am GMT, Services PMIs from Spain, Italy, and other members of the euro zone will publish. Then, at 9:00 am GMT, euro zone’s retail sales report will come out. It’s projected to show a 0.4% gain, opposite the 0.5% decline seen the month before.
The euro gave the markets quite a show as political turmoil in Portugal set off fireworks on the charts. The shared currency sold off sharply in the London session but was able to recover later in the day, thanks to a sudden drop in Portuguese bond yields. While EUR/USD finished 37 pips higher, EUR/JPY ended 65 pips lower.
News that Portugal’s finance and foreign ministers resigned from their posts sent shockwaves through the markets. It reignited debt concerns and increased uncertainty in the region, as investors feel that Portugal’s new leaders may not focus as much on austerity as Vitor Gaspar, the former finance minster. If Portugal doesn’t stick to its budget plans, it could very well bring to life another debt crisis.
Don’t take your eyes off the euro zone just yet, because the ECB is scheduled to hold its rate statement at 11:45 am GMT and its press con at 12:30 pm GMT. Word on the street is that the central bank will keeps its monetary policy guns holstered and make no changes, as the euro zone has seen more improvements in the economy since its last rate statement.
However, with Portugal’s political issue presenting a new problem and the recent volatility in financial markets, there is a chance that Mario Draghi will take a more cautious tone with his statement. In any case, y’all better tune in for this event because it might just dictate euro price action for the coming days!
Talk about getting kicked in the behind! The euro took a beating in yesterday’s trading matches, as the markets reacted negatively to the ECB rate statement. By the end of the day, EUR/USD was trading at 1.2912, exactly 100 pips below its opening price.
The ECB decide to keep rates steady at 0.50%, although ECB President Mario Draghi did acknowledge that the board did get down and dirty and had some intense talks about a potential rate cut. Naturally, this sparked some speculation that the ECB may just cut rates during the second half of 2013, and this sent the euro crashing lower.
It wasn’t all bad news for the euro though. Portuguese 10-year bond yields dropped back below 7%, as governments officials said that they would play nice and have a sit down meeting later this week.
For today, the only report scheduled on the calendar is the German factory orders report, which is projected to show a 1.3% month-on-month increase. A better than expected result could provide some support for the bulls to help recuperate some of yesterday’s losses.
You win some, you lose some. The euro ended the day in the red against the Greenback, but it also posted gains against the pound, yen, and the franc. And that’s despite the existence of bearish news from the euro region! Ha!
Last Friday Germany’s factory orders printed a 1.3% decline in May, which is a heck of a lot weaker than the expected 1.3% growth. France’s trade balance data also didn’t help as it showed a 6 billion EUR deficit instead of the 4.5 billion EUR deficit that was expected.
Will the euro be as lucky this week? The region is in for a big day today with the German trade balance data scheduled at 6:00 am GMT, followed by the German industrial production data at 10:00 am GMT. Then, at 12:30 pm GMT, Mario Draghi will take center stage. Watch out for any word on the Eurogroup meetings, which is expected to bring focus on bailout payment terms for Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus. Remember that Greece is having trouble deciding on how it can cut its government payroll while Portugal is dealing with political instability. Keep close tabs on anything from the peripheral region, as well as Germany’s economic reports!
What a relief! The euro was able to avoid another day of losses against the Greenback, as EUR/USD kept its head above the 1.2800 handle and even climbed to a high of 1.2880. EUR/JPY moved mostly sideways when it found support around 129.50 and resistance near 130.00.
Yesterday’s data from Germany turned out weaker than expected. Euro zone’s largest economy printed a 14.1 billion EUR trade surplus, lower than the estimated 17.4 billion EUR surplus and the previous month’s 17.4 billion EUR trade surplus. German industrial production posted a 1.0% decline, twice as much as the estimated 0.5% drop, erasing part of the 2.0% increase seen in the previous period.
However, a couple of good updates from Portugal and Greece were able to lift the shared currency in yesterday’s trading. Apparently, Portugal was able to fix its political rift as Prime Minister Coelho announced a reshuffling of their cabinet. Meanwhile, Greece was able to successfully secure its next tranche of bailout funds to the tune of 3 billion EUR.
There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so market watchers could continue to pay close attention to updates regarding Portugal’s political situation. Keep your eyes and ears peeled for any news on the ECOFIN meetings as well!
That must have hurt! Just like Anderson Silva, the euro got knocked down in yesterday’s trading. EUR/USD fell short of touching the 1.2900, dropping like a rock to finish the day with an 86-pip loss at 1.2786. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was down 91 pips at 129.18 by the New York session close.
What the heck happened??
For one, there was ECB Board member Asmussen’s dovish remarks. He said in a speech that the ECB’s guidance about its extended monetary policy is beyond 12 months. This worried traders as it implies that the central bank would keep rates at ultra low levels for THAT long!
To top it off, his concerns about the economy might have also weighed down the euro. He remarked that there should be a Plan B in preparation for capital shortfalls.
Last but not the least, the shared currency was also hit by the downward revision to Italy’s credit rating to BBB from BBB+. Ouch! Talk about a triple whammy, huh?
Today, only the French industrial production report is on tap from the euro zone at 6:45 am GMT (seen at -0.5%). With that said, make sure you keep an ear out for any updates from the region as we could see market sentiment dictate price action once again!
If I were to describe EUR/USD’s price action yesterday in one word, it would be explosive. After posting fresh 2-month lows the day prior, EUR/USD decided it had enough and turned on beast mode. As of this writing, the pair is trading at 1.3087, which is a whopping 300 pips higher from its opening price yesterday.
Data from the euro zone supported the upward move. The French Industrial Production came in better than expected, declining only 0.4% instead of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the German Final CPI was as expected at 0.1%.
It was the FOMC meeting minutes that truly boosted the pair though. It reported that the Fed is still dovish, and that the central bank believes that highly accommodative monetary policy is still required for the foreseeable future. The revelation was a stark contrast to the tapering rhetoric from the Fed a few weeks ago.
Will EUR/USD’s rally continue today? With no major economic catalyst on deck, I believe there is a good chance that it will as European traders haven’t really adjusted to the news. Note that the FOMC meeting minutes was released AFTER the European trading session closed.
Down but not out! After recently reaching the 1.3200 level, EUR/USD edged down slowly in yesterday’s trading but managed to keep its head above the 1.3000 major psychological support. EUR/JPY moved mostly sideways, as it struggled to stay on top of the 129.00 level.
There were no major reports released from the euro zone lately while medium-tier data came in mixed. German wholesale prices showed a 0.4% decline instead of the estimated 0.3% uptick. As for France, consumer price levels posted a 0.2% increase.
Only the industrial production report is due from the euro zone today, and it is expected to print a 0.2% decline for May. A weaker than expected reading could trigger a euro selloff and possibly push EUR/USD and EUR/JPY below key support levels, so watch out for the actual release at 10:00 am GMT!
The euro bulls and bears were all over the charts last Friday as they dragged the common currency lower against the dollar and the franc but higher against the pound and the yen.
Last Friday the euro zone printed its industrial production data, which only showed a 0.3% decline after a 0.5% uptick in the previous month. Portugal might have also contributed to the bad vibes when it had asked for a delay of the EU-IMF bailout review until August. Thanks to the uncertainty surrounding the country’s ability to meet its bailout conditions, Portugal’s 10-year bond yields had jumped by almost 8% throughout the day.
We won’t be seeing any major report from the euro region today, but watch out for the ZEW reports and Spanish bond auctions due this week in case we see increases in volatility! Oh, and keep an eye out for any news event that might influence risk appetite. With only a handful of major data scheduled to come out from the region, I won’t be surprised if the euro trades on its counterparts’ price action.
Mixed trading for the euro, as it traded with a mostly bearish tone for most of the day before retracing later on in the New York session. EUR/USD hit as low as 1.2992 before recovering late to finish at 1.3069, down just 5 pips on the day.
We could see more action on euro pairs today, as the ZEW economic sentiment reports will be released at 9:00 am GMT. The German and euro zone editions are scheduled to post readings of 39.8 and 31.8 respectively, just slightly higher than the figures posted last month. Better than expected results could buoy the euro and allow it establish new highs versus its major counterparts.
After a couple of days of consolidation, EUR/USD seems to be showing upward momentum as the pair surged above the 1.3100 handle in yesterday’s trading. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, remains stuck around 130.50.
Data from the euro zone came in mixed during yesterday’s London session, as Germany printed weaker than expected ZEW figures while the entire region got a better than expected result. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 38.5 to 36.3 instead of improving to 39.8 while euro zone’s ZEW reading ticked up from 30.6 to 32.8, outpacing the consensus at 31.8.
There are no economic reports set for release from the euro zone today, as traders will be all eyes and ears on the German bond auction. Watch out for a possible spike in yields, which would reflect higher borrowing costs and might be negative for the euro. Be careful out there!
Where did all 'em euro bulls go?? The shared currency pared some of its gains from the dollar yesterday. EUR/USD opened at 1.3167 and traded all the way down to 1.3100 before closing the day at 1.3120.
The lack of economic reports from the euro zone left the currency vulnerable to market sentiment. Unfortunately for it, Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his earlier remarks, saying that the Fed could taper off its asset purchases this year. Consequently, this boosted the dollar.
Of course, it also did not help the euro that the Bank of Italy slashed its growth forecast for the country. It now expects the economy to contract by 1.9% versus its initial estimate of a 1.0% contraction. Yikes!
Our forex calendar still doesn’t have any market-moving reports scheduled for the euro today. With that said, it may be a good idea to take your cues from the events happening for the euro’s counterparts. Good luck!
Weak sauce! The euro had another dismal performance against the dollar yesterday. EUR/USD sank lower, tapping a low of 1.3067 before finishing the day with a 9-pip loss at 1.3111. However, it got lucky against the yen, as EUR/JPY finished the day 111 pips above its opening price at 131.80.
The weaker than expected current account report from the euro zone is partly to blame. It came in at 19.6 billion EUR versus the 21.3 billion forecast for June. Of course, this figure gave investors very little reason to buy up euros especially against the dollar which enjoyed its share of positive data from the U.S.
Today, no reports are due from the euro zone. However, the G20 meetings are set to start today. Keep an ear out for updates from key policymakers as their remarks regarding the global economy or Europe’s financial health could affect the markets!
The euro traders were in no mood for news trading last Friday, so it’s not surprising that the common currency had mixed performances against its counterparts. It gained pips on the Greenback and the yen, but lost a couple to the pound and the franc.
Last Friday Spain printed its quarterly house price index numbers, which showed a 2.4% decline for Q2 2013 after already falling by 0.8% in the first quarter. Germany’s PPI report also didn’t do the euro any favors since it only printed at 0.0% in June, just slightly higher than the expected 0.2% decline.
Will the euro bulls and bears spend the rest of the summer lollygagging or will they be fired up this week? We won’t be seeing any major data out of the region today, but make sure you’re well prepared for other major reports like the French, German, and euro zone manufacturing and services PMI scheduled on Wednesday as well as the German IfO business climate on Thursday.
Good luck!
Solid start to the week for the euro, as it edged 46 pips higher versus the dollar to finish at 1.3184. The question is, can the euro bulls sustain the momentum or will they falter today?
Despite the Portuguese coalition parties and opposition failing to come to terms, it appears that the current government has just enough control to avoid another set of elections. This gave the euro enough support to hang on to its gains yesterday.
Looking ahead, we don’t have any hard data coming out from the euro zone, so we’ll have to take our trading cues from elsewhere. Pay attention to risk sentiment, as any shifts in sentiment may direct euro trading today.
There goes the 1.3200 handle! Even without help from economic reports, the euro was able to rise to new highs, claiming control over EUR/USD and taking the pair up 39 pips higher to 1.3224. What’s next?
With the euro zone set to publish its manufacturing and services PMIs later today, activity on euro pairs might pick up even more! The action starts at 7:00 am GMT with the release of French PMIs. At 7:30 pm GMT, Germany will follow up with its own reports. Finally, at 8:00 am GMT, we’ll wrap things up by taking a look at the euro zone-wide versions of the PMIs.
All the reports are expected to print improvements, which could explain why the euro extended its gains yesterday. However, there are downside risks involved, as recent reports from Germany haven’t exactly been stellar.
If today’s PMIs print below forecasts, it could seriously dampen demand for the euro and send EUR/USD crashing back down to 1.3200!
It was quite a good run but all good things come to an end, don’t they? EUR/USD ended its four-day winning streak as it closed in the red yesterday. Was this just a retracement though?
The euro was off to a good start during the London session, as strong PMI figures from Germany and France lifted the shared currency. In fact, ALL manufacturing and services PMIs beat expectations while Germany’s figures even landed above the 50.0 mark, which indicates industry expansion. Euro zone’s overall flash manufacturing PMI also showed an expansion, as the reading came in at 50.1.
However, the tides turned during the U.S. session, as EUR/USD slid back down to the 1.3200 handle. Strong U.S. new home sales, along with risk aversion due to China’s weak PMI, boosted demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
Germany is set to print its Ifo business climate index today and possibly show an improvement from 105.9 to 106.3 for July. Meanwhile, Spain is scheduled to release its unemployment rate, which is expected to hold steady at 27.2%. Stay tuned for these releases starting 8:00 am GMT since these could dictate euro price action for the day!
The euro had another stellar performance on the chart despite the sub-forecast reading from the German IFO survey. Thanks to a strong finish in the New York session, EUR/USD ended 87 pips higher at 1.3285.
The German IFO business climate index crawled higher for the third straight month in July, rising from 105.9 to 106.2. However, it wasn’t enough to match the consensus forecast, which called for a reading of 106.3.
Sure, this is good news, at it shows that the euro zone’s recovery is really gaining traction. But it seems that the markets were expecting something a little bit better in light of the previous day’s solid PMI readings, as they sold off the euro despite the small rise in the index.
No notable reports on tap today, so for now, y’all should keep tabs on market sentiment. Let’s see if the euro can end the week on a high note!
D’oh! That was so close! After gaining ground in early Friday trading, the euro gave up some of its gains against its counterparts. This resulted to minimal gains for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, but significant losses for EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF. What happened?!
The euro started the day strong when a report revealed that Greece had finally met the last condition of its 2.5 billion EUR bailout tranche by transferring several thousand public workers to a “special labor reserve.”
Unfortunately for the common currency, profit-taking and risk aversion ruled the later trading sessions as traders prepare for the high-risk events on tap during the NFP week. This is probably why we saw EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF fall like there was no tomorrow.
The euro region’s economic docket is empty today, so the euro will most likely move on news about Greece’s bailout tranche as well as any report that might impact the overall risk sentiment.Good luck and good trading, forex warriors!