Daily Economic Commentary: Japan

Strike two! The yen lost against the euro for a second day yesterday when positive economic reports were released in the U.S. EUR/JPY climbed by 30 pips at 112.03, while USD/JPY closed 29 pips higher than its open price after dropping to an intraday low of 82.84.

Was it because Japan’s industrial production for October was revised down to a 2.0% dip? Let’s see how markets will react to Japan’s economic reports released a few Facebook pageviews ago. The big Tankan manufacturing report printed an index number of 5, which is than the expected fall to 4, but is also the first drop in seven quarters. The non-manufacturing bit of the report also showed a slip, falling to an index number of 1 from the third quarter’s 2.

Meanwhile, another report indicated that the value of services purchased by businesses rose by 0.5% in October, up from September’s 0.8% decrease.

No other economic report is scheduled for the rest of the week, but that doesn’t mean that you can pack up and go to your ski lodge! I hear that hotshot economic reports are slated to come out from the other major economies, so watch the yen pairs closely, will ya?

As it tends to do in times of risk aversion, the Japanese yen walked tall and held its head above the forex crowd yesterday. Save for the dollar and Loonie, it gained against all of its major counterparts. EUR/JPY fell 61 pips to 111.41 while GBP/JPY slid 113 pips to 131.01.

Thanks to rising concerns over the outlook for the global economy, the yen didn’t need any new news releases to chalk up some gains. But that doesn’t mean that Japan’s economy is free from worries. Studies show that large manufacturers are also becoming more pessimistic over the bleak economic outlook. It seems that nobody is safely out of the woods yet.

For today, it looks like you’ll have to don your risk sentiment hats again because Japan isn’t scheduled to publish any reports. Just remember, risk aversion is the yen’s friend!

No economic reports were released from the Land of the Rising Sun yesterday, but the yen’s price action is far from being a snoozer! The yen clobbered its major counterparts once again, with USD/JPY falling by 25 pips after climbing to an intraday high of 84.45, while EUR/JPY ended the day with a 19-pip loss.

Many market hotshots are saying that USD/JPY was largely moved by the U.S. bond yields’ price action. If you’ve been attending the best forex school on the planet and beyond, you’ll know that higher bond yields mean lower bond prices, which would also lessen the demand for the currency. The bond yields rose by 26 basis points early this week, and even reached a seven-month high before leveling off to its current levels.

Keep your eyes out for more news on this one, will ya? Since no economic report is slated for release, then we might see the yen dance to the tune of risk appetite once again!

[I]Yokatta koto[/I]! Risk aversion enabled the yen to clobber its major counterparts for another day last Friday despite the lack of economic reports from Japan. USD/JPY suffered a 15-pip loss, while EUR/JPY dropped by 137 pips from its intraday high and closed at 110.58.

USD/JPY action was a lil’ tight last Friday as the yen continued to dance to the tune the U.S. bond yields, but let’s hope this week will be more exciting for the Land of the Rising Sun!

The Bank of Japan will start the week with a bang when it releases its monetary policy statement tomorrow, which will be followed by a press conference. The interest rate isn’t expected to budge from its rock-bottom figure of less than 0.1%, but it will be interesting to see if the BOJ will have other tricks up its sleeve in boosting the Japanese economy.

The trade balance report is also scheduled to pop up at 11:50 pm GMT. While the data is expected to show a trade surplus of 630 billion JPY, any number higher than last October’s 580 billion JPY could support the yen.

Last to hit the pip stage is the BOJ’s monthly report on Wednesday at 5:00 am GMT. Don’t miss this one as it could provide more details on the BOJ’s immediate plans for the economy!

Be careful in your trades this week, kiddos!

Yesterday was about as chill as it gets for the yen. With no hard-hitting releases, it cruised its way to victory against most of its counterparts. It gained 31 pips against the Greenback, while climbing 79 pips versus the euro.

Trading was uneventful yesterday, but it looks like we may have a potentially explosive situation on our hands today.

The BOJ is supposed to make its monetary policy statement within the day. Remember, interest rates are already effectively zero in Japan, so the central bank can’t really lower the overnight call rate much further. And since its economy is still struggling, we probably won’t see a rate hike either.

Actually, more noteworthy is what the BOJ may announce at its press conference today. I have a feeling that we’ll be getting more of the usual “wait-and-see” remarks that we’ve gotten from other central banks. The BOJ just rolled out its asset buying scheme last week, and so it may wait to see how this will affect the economy before it acts again.

If trading numbers is your thing, we’ve got a couple of reports on the table today as well.

First is the METI all industry activity report due at 4:30 am GMT. October is expected to print a 0.2% decline following a disastrous 0.8% drop in September.

Just before midnight, Japan will roll out its November trade balance data. Will Japan’s trade surplus shrink from 820 billion JPY to 480 trillion JPY as analysts had forecasted? More importantly, how has its export industry been faring? Let’s find out together at 11:50 pm GMT!

Unlike the previous day, the yen found itself on a shaky ride and had mixed results against its major counterparts yesterday. While USD/JPY closed at its opening price of 83.73, the yen did manage to post gains versus the euro and pound. However, the yen lost out against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Will we see similar results today?

Perhaps one reason why the yen was unable to win across the board was due to the somewhat pessimistic tone of the Bank of Japan’s MPC statement yesterday. Recognizing weakening economic conditions, the BOJ downgraded its future outlook on the economy, pointing to weak manufacturing sector figures. As a result, they kept interest rates unchanged at less than 0.10%.

Hmmm… Is the strong yen starting to affect Japan’s export industries? If you look at the latest trade balance report, it just might be! The most recent report indicated that the surplus shrunk from 820 billion JPY to just 430 billion JPY in November! Remember, a smaller trade surplus indicates that less goods were exported. If this trend continues, we may just see the Japanese government intervene yet again…

Looking ahead, it looks like there are no more major reports scheduled for release for the rest of the week. With Japan going on holiday starting tomorrow and ordering their KFC, we may just see liquidity dry up.

It looks like the yen bulls received their presents early this year, as the yen was able to edge out all the other major currencies on the charts! Yesterday, after it had opened the day at 83.73, fell and closed the day lower at 83.55. Similarly, EUR/JPY ended the day at 109.43, 22 pips below its opening price.

Apparently, the yens gains were mostly caused by weak risk appetite as caused by disappointing economic data. The U.S. existing home sales showed that the annualized number of home sales in November rose only to 4.68 million from 4.43 million, which was significantly lower than the 4.72 million initially predicted. While not totally disappointing, it shows that the economy of the U.S. isn’t performing as strong as expected, which is dampening investors appetite for risk.

Japan’s economic calendar for today has nothing to offer, so data from other major economies will be the ones driving the yen’s price action. Keep a close eye on the U.S. durable goods orders and initial jobless claims reports later on because they could cause some major volatility spikes in the yen’s price action! With the low level of liquidity, prepare yourself for some choppy trading today!

Talk about a strong finish! The yen tore right through its American counterpart in the last 2 weeks of 2010, pushing USD/JPY about 300 pips lower. Last week alone, it gained over 2% versus the dollar in spite of mixed economic data. Let’s see if it can start 2011 off just as strongly!

Japan published a string of reports just before the year came to an end. Industrial production, manufacturing, and retail sales figures gave yen bulls reasons to smile. But weak household spending and a slower pace of inflation in November raised concerns and burst their bubble.

Remember, the BOJ has been fighting off deflationary threats, so the fact that inflation weakened from 0.2% to 0.1% in November is a big pain in the neck for the central bank.

We’ve got a very light economic docket this week for Japan with no tier 1 nor tier 2 reports due for release. It might be best to keep an eye out for U.S. releases if you’re looking to trade the news with USD/JPY. Good luck out there, kids!

The yen couldn’t pick up where it left off last year as it was unable to start 2011 with a win. After two weeks of trampling the Greenback, it finally weakened and gave way to risk appetite, causing USD/JPY to rise 46 pips to 81.73.

Risk appetite showed signs of recovery yesterday as U.S. equities soared and invited investors away from the yen and towards the dollar.

This is quite the opposite of what we had seen in the last couple of weeks of 2010, when the yen was recording gains day after day against the dollar. In fact, its rapid appreciation has caused the BOJ to speak up again! According to Finance Minister Noda, the BOJ is ready to take action “when rapid moves occur.” Hmm… Is this another attempt at jawboning, or is it really just a matter of time before the central bank steps in to intervene again?

The economic docket will be practically empty for Japan today as no potential market-movers are due. In the meantime, head on over to the U.S. because the release of its FOMC meeting minutes may give you the chart action you’ve been waiting for.

The lack of economic reports made the yen vulnerable to the market’s mood swings in yesterday. It won against the comdolls and the euro but it was unable to nudge the dollar and the pound. USD/JPY was up 30 pips at 82.04 and GBP/JPY was 137 pips higher at 127.84 at the day’s close.

With still nothing on our economic calendar for the yen today, you may want to keep tabs on what’s happening with its counterparts.

Worse-than-expected PMIs from the euro zone could allow it to stack up its gains against the euro. On the other hand, if the ADP Employment Survey and ISM Non-Manufacturing index fall short of expectations, it may just be able to pare its losses against the dollar.

So stay tuned!

Another day, another loss! The yen has failed to show any signs of strength this week as it slid ever so sharply during yesterday’s trading. In light of positive employment data from the U.S. and depressing economic conditions in Japan, USD/JPY staged a 121-pip rally that ended at 83.25.

The BOJ must be grinning from ear to ear with the way the yen has been performing this week. If you recall, Finance Minister Noda recently spoke up to hint at a possible intervention and air the central bank’s concerns over the yen’s appreciation. But if the yen keeps this up, it seems like the BOJ can kiss its worries goodbye!

Unfortunately, that’s about the only reason the BOJ has to celebrate because the economy is still burdened by slow growth and deflationary threats.

The economic docket is empty for Japan today, so check out what the U.S. has to offer if you’re planning to trade the news with USD/JPY.

After strutting its stuff on Wednesday, the yen bear camp decided it was time to take a chill pill as it put a halt to the sharp yen selloff. With no Japanese data to fuel the markets, USD/JPY stayed in a tight range and finished practically unchanged at 83.32.

You could hear a pin drop with the way the yen traded yesterday… It was an absolute SNOREFEST! It seems yen bulls and bears have agreed to wait until the U.S. NFP results before they continue to duke it out once again.

The economic docket is empty for Japan today, but the much awaited U.S. NFP report may trigger another round of yen selling if it meets or exceeds expectations. Be sure to have your trading hats on when it hits stands at 1:30 pm GMT!

The lack of economic hollers wasn’t a problem for the yen in Friday’s trading as it wrestled pips out of its counterparts. It choke-slammed the euro from its intraday high of 108.56 all the way to its 4-month low at 106.95. It also pared some of its losses against the dollar when USD/JPY closed 28 pips lower at 83.04.

The Asian currency got lucky that lower-than-expected economic reports and sovereign debt concerns popped up and weakened the dollar and the euro, respectively.

So with our economic calendar still blank for economic reports from Japan today, you may want to tune in to reports from its counterparts and gauge market sentiment to help you with your yen trades.

Good luck and happy trading y’all!

It was a day of mixed trading for the yen yesterday, as it posted some nice gains versus the dollar but remained within range versus the euro. USD/JPY dropped 47 pips to close 82.73 after gapping up to start the week, while EUR/JPY finished just 5 pips lower to end at 107.17.

The yen has been benefitting lately from runs of risk aversion, as heightened concerns about European debt have kept risk appetite at bay. So while we will be getting some Japanese reports today in the form of the leading indicators index and bank lending data, you should be keeping your eyes and ears open from news coming out from other countries.

More specifically, watch out for bond auctions coming out from the U.S. and Europe. If the auctions show that yields are rising, it would indicate that market confidence is fading and that we may see risk aversion run its course.

What happened to all the yen bulls? Was there a Naruto convention somewhere? The yen lost against most of its major partners yesterday, as USD/JPY closed nearly 50 pips higher at 83.21, while EUR/JPY rose 84 pips to end the day at 108.01.

The yen lost despite the fact that the leading indicators index posted a better than expected score at 101.0%, beating out expectations of 100.9%. Still, as I mentioned yesterday, this report normally does not generate any buzz in the forex markets, so yesterday’s yen pairs were mostly driven by external factors. Higher yields on U.S. bonds helped boost USD/JPY, while the euro actually managed to post gains across the board.

Looking ahead, we’ve got the Economy Watchers Sentiment report due at 5:00 am GMT, while core machinery orders data will be released at 11:50 pm GMT. The former is a measure of consumer spending and is expected to print at 44.9, indicating less pessimism in the consumer sector.

Meanwhile, core machinery orders are projected to have picked up by 2.2% in November. Better than expected figures could give yen bulls reason to rejoice.

The yen was as directionless as a zombie on the charts during yesterday’s trading. It lost against its higher yielding counterparts, giving up 94 pips to the euro and 87 pips to the pound, but gaining 24 pips from the dollar when USD/JPY closed at 82.97.

The pickup in risk sentiment accounts for the yen’s loss against the high beta currencies. However, its win against the dollar had taken a few economic gurus off guard. USD/JPY usually increases with Treasury yields and equities but yesterday, it didn’t.

Not to mention that there was also the worse-than-expected core machinery orders report for November which showed that orders placed with manufacturers declined by 3.0% when the market had projected a 2.1% uptick.

But perhaps the improvement in sentiment on current and future economic conditions was enough for the yen to rally. It was reported yesterday that the Economy Watchers Survey increased to 45.1 in December from its 43.6 reading in November, overshooting the 44.9 forecast.

So keep tabs on both market sentiment and the Japan’s CGPI for December at 11:50 pm GMT to help you with your yen trades. The market is eyeing a 1.0% uptick in the price of goods purchased by corporations to follow its 0.9% increase in November.

The yen’s scorecard was as mixed as a Long Island Iced Tea for a second day in a row. It lost to the euro when EUR/JPY closed 158 pips higher at 110.53, but gained 17 pips from the dollar when USD/JPY ended the day at 82.80.

Word of the street is that the market was still hung about the worse-than-expected Key Machinery Orders report that we saw on Wednesday. Despite marking its 13th straight month of annual growth at 11.6%, the report stated that the strong yen has taken a toll on exports and might have kept the actual figures from meeting expectations.

Good thing the CGPI for December posted its third straight month of increase when it came in at 1.2% and overshot the consensus forecast by 0.2%. This should be bullish for the yen because the index is considered a leading indicator of inflation as it reflects the change in the price of goods bought by corporations.

See if the positive vibes sparked by the report will be enough for the currency to end the week drunk with pips. Oh, and make sure you also get a feel of the market’s mood! Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies in times of risk aversion. Peace out!

Where did all the pip-love go? Despite the lack of economic reports from the Land of the Rising Sun last Friday, the yen capped the day lower against its major counterparts. USD/JPY closed at 82.98 after dropping to an intraday low of 82.40, while EUR/JPY rose by 45 pips to 110.98.

It seemed that the yen bulls got a bit jumpy when the People’s Bank of China announced that it would raise its reserve ratio requirement (RRR) by 50 basis points starting January 20. This would mean that China’s banks would have to stock 19% of their reserves at all times, which would lessen the money supply in China. Recall that as Japan’s largest trading partner, any move to control economic growth in China could have a big impact on the struggling Japanese economy.

Watch for the household confidence report today at 5:00 am GMT and see if the yen can take back some of its losses. The report is expected to print at 41.7 from its 40.4 figure last November, but a higher number could attract more pip-love for the yen.

Also keep your eyes glued to the tube for the tertiary industry activity report tomorrow at 11:50 pm GMT, as well as the all industries activity report on Friday at 4:30 am GMT. Business reports from Japan will be closely watched by markets, so don’t even think of missing these ones!

The yen’s win against the dollar and the euro in yesterday’s trading might have been as surprising as R-Patz’ new red hair. Despite negative data, USD/JPY fell to a low of 82.36 before ending the day at 82.72. On the other hand, EUR/JPY closed 101 pips lower at 109.90.

It was reported that household confidence fell for the sixth consecutive month when the index inched lower to 40.2 in December from November’s 40.9 reading. It also disappointed the 41.6 consensus thanks to the weak labor market weighing down consumer sentiment.

I wonder if today’s reports will help the yen stack up its gains from its counterparts.

At 4:30 am GMT, the market is expecting to see that no revisions have been made in the final reading of the industrial production report, showing that sector activity increased by 1.0% in November.

Then later at 11:50 pm GMT, we’ll see if the value of services bought by businesses in November will signal economic health with the METI Tertiary Activity index. Note that the consensus is a 0.5% uptick to match the reading for October.

Be on your toes for better-than-expected figures as these may fuel the yen’s rally in today’s trading. Good luck!

After hitting a high of 82.33 against the dollar, the yen slipped and closed the day with only an 8-pip gain at 82.64, while EUR/JPY ended the day 70 pips higher at 110.60. Yo yen, what happened to your swagger?

I have a feeling that the lack of high-caliber data left the currency vulnerable to market sentiment. So I guess the final reading of the industrial production report for November, coming in as expected at 1.0%, and the tertiary industry activity report for November that overshot the market consensus by 0.1% when it printed at 0.6%, weren’t enough to hustle the yen.

With that said, you may want to gauge market sentiment first before your bet your pips on the currency because our economic calendar is still blank for reports from Japan. Remember that it usually rallies in times of risk aversion. Good luck!