After storming up the charts to start the week, yen crosses pretty much stayed within range and consolidated yesterday. EUR/JPY closed 14 pips lower to end at 121.04 while GBP/JPY gained 25 pips to finish at 136.32.
With no news or earthquakes to rock the markets, it’s no surprise that yen trading was relatively quiet. That could all change over the next few days though, as the G7 are meeting yet again. Remember, when the G7 met a month ago right after Japan got hit with 9.0 earthquake and tsunami, the group agreed on a coordinated currency intervention to help stabilize the Japanese financial markets. Could we see a repeat performance to end the week?
In any case, be careful trading yen pairs. If you ain’t too sure what to do, might be best to chill out and watch on the sidelines for now!
Thanks to risk aversion, the yen looked as hot as J. Lo in yesterday’s trading. It gained against almost all of its counterparts. USD/JPY closed 30 pips lower from its opening price at 83.50 while EUR/JPY reached a low of 119.26 before closing at 120.95.
Just like yesterday, our economic calendar is still blank for reports from Japan. So if you’re planning to trade any of the yen pairs, be sure so gauge market sentiment! If news of sovereign debt pop up in Europe and data from the U.S. come in worse than expected, the yen may continue its rally. Be on your toes.
OM NOM NOM! Yen buyers got their grubs on last Friday as they gobbled up the Japanese currency. Backed by a bit of good data and risk aversion, the yen was able to mark big gains against some of its biggest rivals as USD/JPY fell 37 pips to 83.09 while GBP/JPY dropped 102 pips to 135.40.
It seems economic nerds were a bit too pessimistic the first time they estimated Japan’s February industrial production. The revised edition of the report showed a much healthier rise in output of 1.8%, as compared to the previous estimate of just 0.9%. The main driver of growth was, ironically enough, a high output of passenger cars! Hah! Gotta love those Hondas and Toyotas!
But keep in mind that these figures were prior to the devastating earthquake and tsunami, so it’s very difficult to say at this point if Japan can continue posting gains at this pace in the coming months.
If you’re interested in Japanese economic data, you don’t have to look past Tuesday to get your fill!
First up, we get a peek at Japan’s household spending at 5:00 am GMT. Forecasts say the index will likely drop slightly from 39.9 to 40.6 for the month of March.
Then at 11:50 pm GMT, we have the tertiary industry activity report and trade balance data.
For the tertiary industry activity report, a pessimistic 0.2% rise is expected for the month of February, down from the 2.1% growth seen in January. Likewise, trade balance data for March is also expected to worsen as Japan’s surplus is seen to shrink from 560 million JPY to just 330 million JPY.
Also, keep tabs on risk sentiment because it’s been turning the tides in favor of the yen lately! Good luck, kiddos!
It’s a bird… It’s a plane… It’s the yen! The Asian currency skyrocketed on the charts yesterday as risk aversion came in full swing. It gained a whopping 209 pips against the euro when EUR/JPY closed at 117.70. Meanwhile, USD/JPY closed the day 44 pips lower at 82.70.
With only the third-tier household confidence report on tap from Japan today, I have a feeling the yen’s action on the charts will still be primarily dictated by market sentiment. So make sure you get a feel of the market’s mood before you start betting your pips!
At 5:00 am GMT, analysts are expecting to see the index reflect the negative effects of the earthquake and tsunami in the country. The forecast for March is down at 39.9 after the index came in at 40.6 in February.
The yen turned out to be one of the major underperformers in yesterday’s trading session due to the market’s increased appetite for risk. The yen lost the most versus the euro, as EUR/JPY ended the day almost 150 pips higher.
Nothing coming out of Japan’s economic calendar today, but we did see the country’s tertiary industrial activity report and trade balance earlier today.
The tertiary industrial activity reported a rise of 0.8%, much higher than the 0.2% initially predicted. Since the report measures the total value of services purchased by companies, the increased activity hints that the overall health of businesses has improved.
The trade balance, on the other hand, showed a 10 billion JPY surplus for March, lower than forecast (330 billion JPY) and the figure seen the month prior (480 billion JPY).
Whether yen selling will continue today or not will depend on market sentiment. If traders and investors persist with their optimistic stance towards global growth and the economy, we could see the yen experience more losses! Good luck trading today folks!
The Japanese yen was bullied by its major counterparts yesterday so it took out its rage on the U.S. dollar. Because of that, USD/JPY ended the day 73 pips down from its intraday high of 83.11. I guess we all know which is the weaker safe-haven now, huh?
Economic data from Japan was mixed, as the tertiary industry activity index came in better than expected while the Japanese trade balance fell short of expectations. Although the services index posted a 0.8% increase for February, which was better than the projected 0.2% uptick, the January figure suffered a huge downward revision from 2.1% to -0.1%. Ouch!
Meanwhile, Japan’s trade balance showed a 0.1 trillion JPY surplus, short of the projected 0.33 trillion JPY reading. This was also less than the previous month’s balance, which was downwardly revised from 0.56 trillion JPY to 0.48 trillion JPY. Components of the report showed the large drop in exports was mostly to blame for these disappointing figures. Among the industries that chalked up the worst declines is the cars and auto parts manufacturing, which were severely damaged after the earthquakes.
Japan won’t be releasing economic figures for the next couple of days, which means that risk sentiment could keep controlling the yen’s movement. Stay on your toes, everyone!
Much like everything else, trading the yen was a real bore last Friday. It had everyone yawning as USD/JPY only moved 10 pips up from its opening price of 81.82. Even EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, pairs that tend to be very lively, were unusually tame. EUR/JPY moved just 6 pips up to 119.16 just as GBP/JPY rose 7 pips to 135.29.
Since many traders were away for Easter and economic releases were very light, the yen hardly moved last Friday.
The question now is, will we see the yen spring to life this week?
Market players will be flowing back in from the long weekend, and this could result in big moves. Couple that with the reports Japan will be publishing this week, and we could have a catalyst for explosiveness!
Today, we’ll start with light data. At 4:30 am GMT, the all industries activity report is slated to show a 0.4% uptick following the 2.9% rise in February.
Then tomorrow at 11:50 pm GMT, we’ll pick up with retail sales data, which is expected to show a 5.8% decline. Wednesday (11:30 pm GMT) follows up with Japanese CPI, which is forecasted to reveal a 0.2% rise in prices after the previous month displayed a 0.3% drop. Then on Thursday, the BOJ will be making its monetary policy statement and holding its press conference!
Phew! It seems like Japan plans to make up for last week’s lack of reports, eh? Make the best out of it, kiddos!
After trading lower during the Asian session, the yen made a slow and steady comeback in the latter sessions. After testing psychological resistance at the 120.00 mark, EUR/JPY dropped all the way back down to end at 119.12, just a few pips off its opening price. USD/JPY traded in a similar fashion, topping out at 82.43 before finishing at 81.69, 13 pips lower for the day.
Part of the reason why the yen may have rallied slightly was probably due to overall dollar weakness. Remember, it’s important to keep an eye out on USD/JPY, as strong flows in that currency pair could drive other yen pairs.
Later at 11:50 pm GMT, retail sales figures will be released. Word is that sales have dropped 5.8% on yearly basis during March. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise – after all, Japan had to deal with the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami.
The yen’s movement across the yesterday was as mixed as a bag of nuts! The currency was able to gain versus the pound and the dollar, but lose out against the euro and the Aussie.
It seems that traders are starting to get jittery about the upcoming FOMC statement. They don’t know whether to put their money in safe haven currencies such as the Greenback, or go for gold and risk it on higher-yielding currencies like the euro and the Aussie.
In other news, earlier today, Japan’s retail sales report that was initially predicted to show a 5.7% decline came in with an 8.5% decrease instead. The unexpected drop was due to the very weak consumer confidence following the devastating earthquake.
Later, we’ll be treated to a plethora of economic data, starting with Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) at 11:30 pm GMT. At the same time, the household spending report will also be released. Shortly after, at 11:50 pm GMT, the preliminary industrial production report will publish.
While these reports aren’t usually market moving, paying attention to them still helps. You never know which of them will serve as a catalyst for a new trend or breakout!
Ooomph! With the way the yen was clobbered in the charts yesterday, it looks as if its major counterparts did The Powerbomb on it many times over! Disappointing economic reports from Japan and a not-so-surprising downgrade of its credit rating outlook plunged the yen across the board, with USD/JPY tipping an intraday high of 82.79. EUR/JPY also rose by a whopping 198 pips to 121.35, while GBP/JPY climbed by as much as 213 pips to 136.46. Yeouch!
Aside from the disappointing retail sales report that I mentioned yesterday, Japan’s manufacturing PMI and household spending numbers also took a few hits. Manufacturing PMI ended up with falling to an index figure of 45.7 from its 46.4 reading in March, while household spending showed an 8.5% drop in March after already slipping by 0.2% in February.
Good thing its CPI numbers still show promise, with the Tokyo core CPI inching up by 0.2% while the country’s CPI by less than its rate last March at 0.1%. Last on the deck was Japan’s unemployment rate holding steady at 4.6% in March while its industrial production numbers showed a record drop of 15.3%. Yikes!
Let’s see if the yen manages to gain back some of its losses today when the BOJ announced its monetary policy decisions. Many analysts expect clues on its press conference today at 12:00 am GMT, but keep your eyes glued to the tube for any surprises!
With the markets mostly in consolidation, yen crosses gave back some of their recent gains, allowing the yen to come out on top yesterday. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY dropped 51 and 78 pips respectively, ending the day at 120.84 and 135.68.
Yesterday’s BOJ press conference revealed that one of BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa’s minions suggested that the central bank expand its asset purchase program – currently at 10 trillion yen – to 40 trillion yen to help stimulate the economy. For now, the proposal was rejected as other MPC members want to see what effects the recent purchases made in March will have on the economy. In any case, this will be an issue to keep an eye on further down the line.
For today, nothing on deck, but with it being the end of the month, watch out as some traders may be looking to square their positions and bank in some profits.
Looks like the yen bulls were in a good mood last Friday! Despite the lack of economic reports in Japan, the yen gained against its major counterparts. USD/JPY ended up 41 pips lower at 81.13, while EUR/JPY closed 70 pips below its open price at 120.14. Was it because traders were gearing up for the Golden Week ahead?
The only economic report scheduled for release early this week is the average cash earnings report out a while ago at 1:30 am GMT. The data showed that the total value of employment income collected by workers decreased by 0.4% in March, which is lower than February’s 0.3% rise.
For the rest of the week many Japanese traders will take a break as Japan celebrates its Golden Week, a succession of national holidays from April 29 to May 5 this year. Hmm, I wonder if they’ll miss Forex Gump’s witticisms while they’re gone…
While our Japanese friends are on a break though, the rest of the world isn’t! So make sure you still keep close tabs on your yen crosses, aight?
The yen’s performance yesterday was as mixed as the reviews for the movie [I]Arthur[/I]. It was able to get two thumbs up for its moves against the Greenback, pound, and Aussie but it didn’t do so well against the euro. If you’re wondering what’s in store for the yen today, read on!
Japan won’t be releasing any economic data today until Thursday because Japanese banks are on a holiday in observance of Constitution Day. Also known as Kenpo Kinenbi, Constitution Day is when the Japanese reflect on the importance of democracy and the laws of Japan. Not only do I give economic commentaries, I supply the occasional trivia tidbits too!
Without any economic data to determine its direction, the yen could be swayed by changes in risk sentiment. Good luck trading, everyone!
The yen was able to gain due to a slight case of risk aversion yesterday. Earnings were reportedly lower and there was speculation going around that global growth may decelerate due to intensified security measures after Osama Bin Laden’s death. EUR/JPY, for instance, fell to 120.07 after it had opened the Asian trading session at 120.47.
Japan continues its week long holiday today so no economic reports will be coming out from the country. Do keep an eye out on data from the U.S. though, as the ADP non-farm employment change could have a significant market impact on the yen’s price action.
They got nothing on yen, baby! The Japanese currency outwit, outplayed, and outlasted its major counterparts yesterday as risk aversion gripped the markets. It’s biggest win was against the Aussie, as AUD/JPY fell by 175 pips from a high of 88.15 to a low of 88.40.
Japan was still in enjoying a bank holiday in commemoration of Constitution Day yesterday but this didn’t stop the Japanese yen from pocketing some gains. Poor economic data from the U.K. and the euro zone led many traders to doubt the economic recovery, causing a pullback in equities, commodities, and higher-yielding currencies.
Today, Japan is still on a Constitution Day holiday but the yen could be in for more gains if risk aversion extends its stay. There are several top-tier economic events you should watch out for today so make sure you read the rest of my daily economic roundup!
And a-one, and a-two, and a-three! For the third straight day, the yen posted huge wins on the charts as risk aversion reared its ugly, Cyclopip-esque head once again. USD/JPY dropped 44 pips to 80.12 while EUR/JPY tumbled 308 pips to 116.39.
The BOJ must be frustrated as heck seeing the yen return to pre-earthquake levels less than two months after the G7 intervention. That being said, over the coming days, the question that should be on our minds is “How much longer ‘til these central banks step in again? I want my pips yo!”
If today’s U.S. NFP report prints a highly disappointing figure and sparks another bout of risk aversion, it could lead to further gains for the yen. This, in turn, raises the possibility of another intervention in the near future! So be sure to catch the NFP report at 12:30 pm GMT!
With no economic report released from the Land of the Rising Sun, the yen’s price action was as mixed as Happy Pip’s margaritas last Friday. Though EUR/JPY dropped by another 76 pips to 115.62, USD/JPY also climbed 44 pips to 80.56 and GBP/JPY gained 89 pips to 132.09.
Though market action in Japan was pretty tame last Friday, word around the street is that the BOJ plans to boost its capital to make way for potential losses on its asset-buying measures.
In Forex Gump’s Japan downgrade article, he mentioned that the BOJ is prepared to buy riskier assets in order to help the Japanese economy. Well, it looks like the BOJ is strapping on some safety measures! It’s planning on asking the government to set aside more reserves to make way for potential losses even if it raked in a small profit in the fiscal year ending in March. Talk about being boy scouts!
Japan’s economic boards are empty again today, but make sure you keep a close eye on risk appetite! Market bees have been buzzing about another currency intervention from the BOJ if risk aversion continues to push the yen higher in the charts!
Someone’s been pumping iron! The yen was downright monstrous on the charts as it demolished its two biggest rivals yesterday. It rose 40 pips against the dollar while posting a 73-pip win against the euro.
We didn’t have much Japanese data to work with yesterday and it looks like we won’t have any to work with again today! In the meantime, I suggest you check out China’s trade balance data, which is scheduled to roll out sometime today. China is Japan’s largest trading partner, so if you want a glimpse of Japan’s trade, you may want to check out what China has to say.
And of course, keep your eyes on risk sentiment! Yesterday, the newswires were buzzing over Greece’s credit downgrade. If the markets continue to focus on the euro zone’s debt woes, it could bring about another round of risk aversion. Y’all know what that could mean, right? More gains for the yen!
Were those BOJ officials I saw drinking shots of sake with Big Pippin last night? After all, the yen was the biggest loser in yesterday’s trading action, which is exactly what the BOJ wants! USD/JPY made a nice run up the charts, gaining 63 pips on the day to finish at 80.83. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY soared higher by 128 pips before ending at 116.39.
With the yen reaching pre-G7 intervention levels, Bank of Japan officials probably let out a sigh of relief when they saw the yen drop yesterday. Rumors have been circulating the forex hood that the BOJ may intervene once again, as they are determined to keep the yen weak in order to protect their export industries.
Still, one day does not make a trend! If we see the yen continue to rise up the charts, watch for those intervention whispers to get a whole lot louder.
That’s three out of four for the Japanese yen! Thanks to the return of risk aversion yesterday, the yen was able to end higher against the euro, pound, and Aussie. Its only loss was against the Greenback, as USD/JPY opened at 80.83 and closed 3 pips above the 81.00 handle. Can JPY score four out of four today or will it erase its recent wins?
Even though Japan didn’t release any top-tier reports yesterday, the Japanese yen was able to flex its muscles against most of its major counterparts. Mixed results of the Chinese data and the not-so-good outcome of the U.S. trade balance were the most likely culprits for the drop in risk-taking. Because of that, most traders started unwinding their riskier positions to the benefit of the Japanese yen.
Japan’s economic schedule is empty again for today but that doesn’t mean the yen’s movement will be just as quiet. Bear in mind that the U.S. schedule is filled with red flags today so I suggest you also read my U.S. economic commentary!