As risk appetite kicked in yesterday, investors shoved aside the yen and sought after higher-yielding currencies. USD/JPY closed 27 pips above its opening price at 76.84 while EUR/JPY ended the day at 104.34 after opening at 103.73.
It seems to me that the successful vote on the EFSF in the German Bundestag sparked risk appetite. It also might not have helped that the retail sales report from Japan printed a 2.6% decline in consumer spending in August. Analysts were only bracing for a more modest decline of 0.6%.
Hmmm, I wonder how today’s roster of economic reports would affect the yen’s performance in the charts.
Earlier, it was reported that the manufacturing PMI for September was lower at 49.3 than the 51.9 reading we saw for August. The preliminary industrial production report for August also failed to impress when it printed at 0.8% when it was expected to come in at 1.5%. Another disappointing report was household spending. In August, consumer expenditure declined by 4.1% and missed the forecast which was for a 2.7% contraction.
On a brighter note, national core CPI printed twice the consensus at 0.2% for September. Also, we saw the unemployment rate for August drop to 4.3% after coming in at 4.7% in July.
Remember to be on your toes for updates on the euro zone, ayt? Keep in mind that the yen usually rallies in times of risk aversion. Good luck!
The yen exhibited a bit of schizophrenia last Friday as it traded mixed versus other major currency. The yen gave up a lot of ground to the Greenback and the pound, but at the same time, it was able to surge higher against the euro.
It seems that the yen’s price action mirrored events happening externally, than internally. For instance, the Greenback was able to win over the yen due to positive economic data. Meanwhile, the euro lost against the yen because of rumors that the European Central Bank (ECB) would cut rates by 0.50% this week. Moving forward, it appears that the yen will be continued to be driven the same way.
In other news, earlier today, the Tankan Manufacturing Index came in just as expected. Meanwhile, the Tankan Non-manufacturing Index disappointed as it printed a reading of 1, and not 3 like initially expected.
This week, the only thing you need to keep an eye out is the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision on interest rates. It is widely expected that the BOJ would keep rates below 0.10% again, so pay attention instead to the accompanying statement.
They got nothing on yen, baby! The Japanese currency managed to win against all its rivals yesterday as risk aversion loomed over the markets. USD/JPY dropped from its 77.04 open price to close at 76.61 while EUR/JPY tumbled to the 101.00 area. How will the yen pairs behave today?
Despite weak Tankan figures from Japan, the yen was able to take advantage of the strong case of risk aversion brought about by the lack of progress on euro zone debt talks. The better than expected monetary base figure gave the yen a slight boost as it came in better than expected, printing a 16.7% year-over-year increase for September. Higher money supply often leads to more spending and investment, eventually pushing inflation up and supporting the case for a rate hike.
But that’s not as easy as it sounds! Bear in mind that the Japanese economy is dealing with the negative effects of an appreciating currency, which drags their exports down and counteracts the effects of increased money supply.
Only the average cash earnings report is due from Japan today and this could show that employment income climbed by an annualized 0.7% in August. A higher than expected figure could be positive for the yen since this would imply that the Japanese have more cash to spend, so keep an eye out for the report due 1:30 am GMT.
Without any other reports due from Japan, the yen could be driven by market sentiment yet again. Make sure you figure out whether risk is on or off before taking any trades with the yen pairs!
When risk appetite strikes, you know the yen’s gonna eat dust! It gave ground to all its major counterparts yesterday as traders turned back to higher-yielding currencies. When all was said and done, USD/JPY finished 30 pips higher at 76.91 while EUR/JPY rallied 130 pips to 102.45.
Japan’s average cash earnings dropped 0.6% year-on-year in August instead of rising by 0.7% as expected. However, market reaction to this report was limited as yen crosses hardly moved during this release. Nevertheless, yen crosses did find themselves higher up the charts at the end of the day as traders decided to take their cue from risk sentiment and sell the yen.
Is this the beginning of a big drop for the yen? Finance Minister Azumi doesn’t seem to think so. He sounded worried as heck about the yen’s strength yesterday, saying that European officials should be more transparent with their debt resolution efforts to help curb the yen’s strength and to prop up the euro.
No reports from Japan today, but that shouldn’t stop you from trading yen crosses. Risk sentiment has been dictating price action on the yen as of late, so just remember to keep it in check if you plan on trading the yen!
With risk appetite supporting high-yielding currencies, you can bet your iPhone 4-soon-to-be-4S that the yen is going to lose some pips! EUR/JPY capped the day near break even after dropping to an intraday low of 101.62, while GBP/JPY also climbed from a low of 118.10 and ended the day 118.69.
While no economic reports were released from the Land of the Rising Sun, the Bank of Japan peeps kept up their jawboning by saying that the central bank is ready to act if the yen’s strength gets out of hand. Of course, it didn’t hurt that optimism on the euro zone crisis boosted high-yielding currencies and weakened the low-yielding yen yesterday.
Japan won’t be releasing any economic reports again today, but we might see volatility provide some action in your charts as soon as the BOE and ECB interest rate decisions are released. Our students at the School of Pipsology know that interest rate news almost always move the markets, so make sure you also stay glued to the tube for these announcements!
The yen pretty much gave as good as it got yesterday. It gained ground against the dollar and the pound, but retreated against the euro, Aussie, and Kiwi. Will it continue its Jekyll and Hyde performance today?
Risk appetite continued to help boost most higher-yielding currencies against the yen yesterday, but even with the markets’ recent risk taking, Japanese officials are still uncomfortable with the yen’s strength.
Recently, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) proposed that the government take a more aggressive stance towards curbing the yen’s rise. They want the central bank to set its inflation target at 1.5% and to expand its asset buying program by another 10 trillion yen in hopes of stimulating growth and weakening their currency. Clearly, the LDP doesn’t want to just sit back and watch the yen continue to rally and hurt Japan’s export industry. But is the Bank of Japan (BOJ) pressured enough to act?
We’ll find out soon enough! Today, the BOJ is set to have its monetary policy statement. Though its unlikely that we’ll see any changes in interest rates, which are currently at near-zero levels, we may just receive a few clues as to what the central bank plans to do about the yen’s strength. So stay flexible during this Tokyo session folks!
Mixed day for the yen, as it managed to sneak in a gain versus the euro, but got absolutely destroyed by the pound. After hitting an intraday high at 103.87, EUR/JPY ended the day at 102.88, marking a 16-pip loss on the day. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY soared up the charts, gaining 118 pips to finish at 119.58.
As expected, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady at 0.10%, while maintaining their 50 trillion JPY bond purchase program aimed at boosting liquidity. The central bank did note economic activity is picking up, as production and exports are gaining steam, albeit at a slow pace.
In any case, I expect risk sentiment to continue to dictate yen trading this week, as the threat of intervention seems to have died off. If more bad news props up around the world, don’t be surprised if we see EUR/JPY below the 100.00 mark by the end of the week!
Yesterday, the Japanese yen lost to most of its major counterparts, except for the U.S. dollar. Risk appetite provided a boost to yen crosses, allowing GBP/JPY to end 16 pips above the 120.00 handle and AUD/JPY to close at 76.56. USD/JPY ended the day in the red as it closed 7 pips below its 76.74 open price.
Japan didn’t release any economic reports yesterday since the Japanese were on a Physical Fitness Day holiday. That just means Japanese traders have flexed their muscles enough to get ready for a busy day today!
On tap are the BOJ monthly report, Japanese household confidence data, and the Economy Watchers sentiment index. Recall that the BOJ didn’t make any monetary policy changes during their latest interest rate decision and the BOJ monthly report could shed light on why they did so. The household confidence index due 5:00 am GMT could print an improvement for September as the reading is expected to climb from 37.0 to 37.4. Meanwhile, the Economy Watchers sentiment index is expected to dip from 47.3 to 46.9 in September, suggesting that Japanese workers grew more pessimistic about their country’s growth prospects.
Thanks to some profit taking after Monday’s strong moves, the yen was able to buckle mixed data and post some decent gains. GBP/JPY finished 70 pips lower at 119.46, while CAD/JPY closed at 74.55, marking a 15-pip drop for the day.
The monthly BOJ report indicated that the central banks believes that economic activity is picking up, although at a slower pace than in the past few months. The central bank also believes that overseas growth to remain firm, which should bode well for the heavily export dependent Japanese economy.
Meanwhile, the household confidence index rose slightly from 37.0 to 38.6 in the past month, while the Economy Watchers index came in worse-than-expected, printing at 45.3. This indicates that while consumers are feeling slightly more optimistic about the economy, everyday workers are actually a little more pessimistic about Japan’s future growth.
The good news is that earlier today, core machinery orders data came in better-than-expected, printing growth of 11.0% during August. This was more than double the expected 4.7% figure and highlights that private companies are stepping up their capital expenditures, which could boost the Japanese economy.
For today, I expect risk sentiment to continue to drive the markets. The only question is whether we’ll see resumption of Monday’s risk taking activities or will Tuesday’s risk averse moves take over the markets.
With investors still giddy over higher-yielding currencies like six-year-olds on a sugar high, the yen got shoved off to the side despite positive reports from Japan. Curse you risk appetite! USD/JPY ended the day 69 pips above its opening price at 77.34. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was up 181 pips from where it opened at 106.66 by the day’s close.
The core machinery orders report for August came in at 11.0% and topped the expected 4.7% uptick. Meanwhile, the preliminary machine tool orders increased by 20.3% in September, higher than the 15.3% surge we saw in August.
With that said, make sure you continue keeping tabs on market sentiment. If you’re bullish for the yen, watch out for signs of risk aversion. Good luck!
The low-yielding yen was able to receive a little love in yesterday’s trading session as risk appetite subsided. It managed to steal 70 pips from the euro, 61 pips from the pound, and 47 pips from the dollar.
Whether risk appetite will continue to abate or not will depend a lot on the results of the upcoming reports from the U.S. A quick look at the economic calendar will reveal that while there are no news reports scheduled for release from Japan, there are a couple of important tier 1 data from the U.S.
At 12:30 pm GMT, the U.S. retail sales data will come out and at 1:55 pm GMT, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will print. Both of the reports tend to be major market movers so it’d be best to pay attention to them and see the results!
Aww, poor guy! The yen didn’t get any lovin’ from investors on Friday as risk appetite continued to dictate market sentiment. EUR/JPY ended the day 119 pips above its opening price at 107.15 while USD/JPY closed the week at 77.21, up from Friday’s opening price of 76.86.
Once again, risk appetite was to blame for the yen’s loss. So given that our forex calendar is still blank for top-tier economic reports from Japan today, it might serve you well to keep tabs on market sentiment. Keep in mind that the because of the currency’s safe haven reputation, it usually rallies in times of risk aversion.
Thanks to risk aversion, the yen bulls were finally able to bring out the big guns! The yen rallied versus all other currencies yesterday, stealing 118 pips from the euro and 89 pips from the pound.
Once again, the shift in sentiment came from developments in Europe. Apparently, German Chancellor Merkel was caught on the wires saying that the search for a resolution to Europe’s debt problems would extend to next year. This dampened the hopes of investors that the crisis would come to a conclusion very soon.
There was also bad news that came out from Japan. The industrial production revision showed that the rise was only 0.6%, and not 0.8% as initially expected.
No data scheduled to publish today but there are a couple of red flags on the U.S. economic calendar. Read my U.S. economic roundup to know more about these possible event risks!
The yen followed the flow of risk sentiment yesterday, as it took advantage of the poor performance of European currencies, but lagged behind the comdolls.
Concerns about the lack of any “definitive action” coming from this weekend’s EU summit, as well as a warning of a credit downgrade for French banks, helped spark some risk aversion, helping the yen rally early on. However, risk sentiment improved during the New York session, helping the comdolls push past the yen.
Take note though that futures dropped late in the day, as everybody’s favorite company, Apple (seriously, everyone’s drinking that Apple flavored Kool Aid!), missed its profit targets. Some say that this could weigh on the markets today, so keep a close eye out on futures trading. If you see a lot of red along the ticker tape, it may mean weakness in the financial markets, which could benefit the yen.
Similar to the dollar, the yen’s price action yesterday was as mixed as a Piña Colada! It remained steady versus the dollar, went on a roller coaster ride with the euro, and lost against the pound. Hah, that’s what shifting risk sentiment does – it takes you everywhere!
No important economic report was released yesterday and nothing again today, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing any yen action!
Market sentiment has been the driving force behind price action so keep tabs on any developments on the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) expansion talks between France and Germany. The result of the talks could lead to another risk rally OR risk sell-off.
With the markets still in consolidation mode, yen crosses traded within their daily ranges and failed to make any new highs or lows. EUR/JPY traded between 105.00 and 106.00, while GBP/JPY stuck within its recent range of 120 pips.
I’m expecting more of the same choppy and consolidated trading today, with wild moves sparked by news about this weekend’s EU summit. Higher yielding currencies could benefit from rumors of new developments around the EFSF, but could also be weighed down by downbeat comments by German officials.
If you feel that the current market environment is too wild to trade in, there’s no shame in sitting on the side lines and seeing how this plays out over the weekend!
Thanks to market sentiment, the yen was able to sumo-wrestle pips out of its counterparts in Friday’s trading. USD/JPY plunged to a new low of 75.83 before ending the day at 76.14, 70 pips below its opening price. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY closed with an 11-pip loss.
It looks like optimism over the EU Summit caused a broad dollar-selling. But the lack of any concrete plans during the meeting might have limited the euro’s rally against the yen.
If you’re thinking of going long on the yen today, be careful! Keep in mind that the currency is already trading at its highs against the dollar. A few market junkies are already speculating that the BOJ may intervene soon.
But who knows, maybe the better-than-expected trade balance report would be enough to keep the BOJ from the sidelines for now. It was reported that imports outpaced exports only by 200 billion JPY, better than the expected 11 billion trade deficit that was estimated by analysts.
The yen’s price action yesterday was as mixed as Robopip’s multi-colored buttons as the lack of reports from Japan made the yen vulnerable to speculations. USD/JPY flirted closer to the major technical support level at 76.00, but EUR/JPY inched 35 pips higher at 105.94.
No news report was released from Japan yesterday, so the low-yielding yen largely traded on dollar sentiment and risk appetite. The big story in the yen is its strength against the dollar, which has been pushing USD/JPY closer and closer below the major 76.00 mark.
If you take a look at your charts, you’ll see that the level has served as a strong support for the pair for the past couple of weeks. This is what’s making many technical traders believe that the BOJ or Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) will launch another currency intervention in the near future.
Will USD/JPY’s price action today be enough to put the currency intervention theories to the test? Only the CSPI (Corporate Services Price Index) report at 11:50 pm GMT is scheduled for release in Japan today, so the yen will most likely trade on risk sentiment again.
Thanks to the surge in risk aversion, the Japanese yen was able to outpace its major counterparts yesterday. EUR/JPY closed 33 pips down from its 105.94 open price while GBP/JPY ended at 121.49. USD/JPY even fell to a new low of 75.74, fueling rumors that the BOJ will intervene in the currency market. Will this happen anytime soon?
As my buddy Forex Gump pointed out, USD/JPY is already beyond its post-war lows and many traders are speculating that the central bank will stage another currency intervention sooner or later. He pointed out that, even though the Japanese government has the “Strong Yen Plan”, they emphasized that BOJ intervention is still an option if the yen refuses to back down. With that, better stay on your toes when trading these yen pairs!
Japan isn’t set to release any top-tier economic data today, leaving yen pairs at the mercy of risk sentiment. Recall that further delays in the EU Finance Ministers summit, along with weak economic figures from the U.S., forced traders to flee to the safe-havens yesterday. If we see more disappointing news today, the Japanese yen could continue to benefit from risk aversion.
The yen received a beating across the board yesterday due to market optimism on the results of the EU summit. EUR/JPY, which traders consider as a good barometer of risk appetite, is currently trading at 106.30, more than 150 pips higher from its lowest level yesterday.
Today will be a big day for Japan since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce their decision on interest rates. The market widely expects no change on interest rates so pay attention to the accompanying statement instead for the yen’s direction. Currency intervention talks could push the yen lower.
Also keep an eye out for the results of Japanese inflation and industrial production data. At 11:30 pm GMT, the country’s CPI report will be released. The national CPI is expected to show a 0.2% gain while the Tokyo CPI is predicted to print a 0.4% decrease. On the other hand, the industrial production report, which will be released at the same time, is slated to show a 2.0% decline.