Did the yen just show a more consistent price action than the dollar?! The yen rose against its counterparts yesterday, gaining 30 pips on the dollar, 41 pips on the euro, and 44 pips on the pound. As it turned out, yen traders concentrated on two things.
Their first concern was risk aversion. With Bernanke finishing up his second testimony where he dispelled QE speculations in the short-term, traders went back to worrying over the euro zone. And we all know how safe-haven junkies love to buy the low-yielding yen in times of uncertainty!
Another factor that came into play was the BOJ minutes, which revealed that the central bank had scrapped its 0.1% floor on buying long-term bonds. Apparently, the central bank is having trouble stimulating the economy as there aren’t enough investors willing to sell their Japanese government bonds in exchange for cash. By allowing purchases of bonds with negative yields, the BOJ is widening its options in stimulating the economy.
No economic data is scheduled for release in the Land of the Rising Sun today, so you might want to keep an eye out for the other major news that might influence risk appetite!
“You win some, you lose some!” was the theme of the day for the yen. While it chalked up solid gains against the dollar and the euro, it couldn’t help but give ground to the pound. What can we expect from it today?
We didn’t really get any ground-shaking news from Japan yesterday. The only report that it rolled out, the all industries activity index, fell below expectations (-0.3% vs -0.2%) and revealed the poor weather in Japan has been taking its toll on consumer spending.
Again, nothing big coming out of Japan today. In the meantime, keep tabs on risk sentiment and keep in mind the yen’s role as a safe haven currency!
Someone call the Bank of Japan, cause the yen’s on fire baby! Thanks to a nice run of risk aversion, the yen tore up the euro and pound last Friday, with both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY dropping over 100 pips.
With concerns about Spain’s bailout needs taking its toll on the markets, the yen benefitted from the wave of risk aversion to end the week. Of course, this isn’t good news for the BOJ, as this sent the yen to a 12-year high versus the euro. Could we see some intervention soon?
Not big reports headed our way from Japan over the next couple of days, so risk sentiment will most likely be the major driver of yen trading this week.
Now that’s what you call a sweep, fellas! The Japanese yen ended higher against ALL of its major counterparts as risk aversion surged yesterday. USD/JPY closed at 78.39, after dipping below the 78.00 handle, while EUR/JPY ended the day 13 pips above the 95.00 handle.
Thanks to mounting euro zone debt problems, particularly in Spain, the lower-yielding Japanese yen was able to gain ground against its major counterparts. It turns out that another Spanish city, Catalonia, might join Valencia in asking for financial help from its government as the debt troubles in euro zone’s third largest economy keep worsening.
Only the Japanese trade balance is set for release from Japan today, which means that the yen could continue to move to the tune of risk sentiment for most of the day. Their trade deficit is projected to narrow from 0.66 trillion JPY to 0.39 trillion JPY, suggesting that the gap between imports and exports shrank during the period. A smaller than expected deficit could be positive for the Japanese yen, so make sure you keep an eye out for the actual release at 11:50 pm GMT.
With risk aversion in full tow, the yen continued to batter away at the European currencies yesterday. EUR/JPY slid 75 pips lower to finish at 94.38, while GBP/JPY dropped 36 pips to end the day at 121.33.
The only piece of data released from Japan was trade balance figures, which were slightly better-than-expected. Japan posted a deficit of just 300 billion JPY last month, which was less than half the 620 billion JPY deficit we saw last month.
However, seeing as how strong the yen has been lately, it will be interesting to see whether we’ll start to see larger deficits as exports suffer. More importantly, let’s see if this leads to more action from the Bank of Japan later down the line.
No biggies on the docket for today, so make sure you keep an eye out for risk sentiment. Who knows, we might just see a midweek rally take place!
Despite Japan’s trade deficit narrowing, the yen was still unable to tap its inner Samurai warrior as risk appetite kept it from rallying against most of its higher-yielding counterparts yesterday. EUR/JPY ended the day higher at 95.03 after opening at 94.38. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY finished the day 47 pips higher at 80.62.
It was reported that Japan’s imports only outpaced its exports by 300 billion JPY in June. Not only did the figure top the forecast which was for a 390 billion deficit, the figure also translates to the smallest trade deficit we’ve seen in 9 months!
However, a deeper look at the report reveals that the figure reflects a 6.5% decline in imports and 1.4% drop in exports. This means that demand deteriorated in June which is ultimately bad news for Japan. Yikes!
On the slightly-brighter side of things though, the yen was still able to sneak some pips away from the dollar and the pound following disappointing data from the U.S. and the U.K. It scored a 2-pip win from the dollar as USD/JPY closed at 78.17 and 17 pips from the pound when GBP/JPY settled at 121.16 at the end of the day’s trading.
Today, inflation and consumer spending reports are on tap and could affect the yen’s price action.
At 11:30 am GMT, Tokyo’s core CPI is expected to have remained steady at -0.6% in July while the national core CPI is seen to have been flat during the month. Then at 11:50 pm GMT, Japan’s retail sales for June is anticipated to come in at 1.2%.
I have a feeling that market sentiment would be a big factor in the yen’s price action today too. So aside from keeping tabs on these reports, make sure you also gauge the market’s mood!
Out of the way, yen sellers coming through! With risk appetite dictating price action on the charts, traders dumped the safe haven yen in favor of higher-yielding currencies. EUR/JPY rose 106 pips to 96.09 just as GBP/JPY surged 165 pips to 122.71. Will the yen see more losses today?
Maybe! If the markets maintain their risk appetite, that is!
Yesterday just wasn’t the yen’s day. Aside from dealing with the markets’ crazy risk rally, it had to battle some bearish words from the BOJ.
The central bank outlined its plans to boost the economy, fight deflation, and weaken the yen yesterday, saying it wants to focus on clean energy, agriculture, and health. It also added that it won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on monetary easing. Jawboning at its best! Looks like the party may be over for yen bulls!
In other news, Japan rolled out a few reports earlier today. The core CPI printed a 0.2% decline in prices (versus 0.0% forecasts), highlighting Japan’s persistent deflationary problems. On the other hand, retail sales rose just 0.2%, a full percentage point below expectations.
If you plan on trading the yen, bear in mind that risk sentiment will probably continue to be the key market driver today. Aside from new developments in the euro zone, sentiment may be affected by the U.S. GDP report. Be careful out there, kiddos! We could be in for a bumpy ride!
Boy, did the yen have a bad Friday. It scored losses to all of its major counterparts as risk appetite lingered in the markets and disappointing data came out from Japan. USD/JPY closed the day 30 pips above its opening price at 78.51 while EUR/JPY finished at 96.56 after opening at 96.09.
Promises from EU leaders that they would do everything in their power to protect the euro helped boost market sentiment on Friday. However, worse-than-expected reports from the Land of the Rising Sun might have also caused the yen’s demise.
Consumer spending for June only grew by 0.2.% and missed the forecast by a full percentage point. On top of that, Japan’s national core CPI fell short of expectations for the first time in 11 months when it came in at -0.2% (analysts anticipated to show that prices remained stagnant for July).
Word around the forex hood is that the disappointing inflation report might have raised the flag for the BOJ as it implies that the economy is still struggling with deflation. In fact, some market junkies say that the central bank now has one more reason to launch more stimulus measures. Yikes!
And it looks like the disappointment didn’t end there. Earlier, it was reported that industrial production contracted by 0.1% in June, falling waaay short of the market’s 1.6% forecast.
But don’t fret yen bulls! Who knows, if risk aversion kicks in today, we may just see the yen rally. So be on your toes, ayt?
In spite of the lack of high profile news reports, the yen was still able to trade firmer yesterday. The yen rallied 39 pips versus the dollar, 68 pips versus the euro, and 60 pips against the pound.
The yen’s rally was driven mostly by risk aversion. Sentiment turned sour as market participants showed pessimism on the ECB’s interest rate decision. Some analysts noted that the ECB could simply take a wait-and-see approach and demand more action from governments rather than take any action itself.
In other news, the Preliminary Industrial Production report came in worse than expected. It showed that production fell 0.1%, opposite the 1.6% gain initially expected.
Earlier today, some figures on employment were released. Japan’s unemployment rate was reported to have fallen to 4.3% from 4.4%. Unfortunately, average cash earnings declined 0.6%.
No major reports left on Japan’s economic cupboard today, so we could see the yen simply move sideways today. Keep a close eye on the previous day’s highs and lows as they could serve as major inflection points.
Just like the dollar pairs, yen pairs were all over the place yesterday. EUR/JPY closed 28 pips higher to finish at 96.13, while GBP/JPY fell 36 pips to end the day at 122.49.
As expected, yen pairs traded in a sideways fashion, as no hard hitting data was released. That could all change today though, as we’ve got a slew of reports headed our way from the U.S. during the New York session. Make sure y’all hit up my U.S. commentary for the 411!
Despite the recent rebound in the global stock markets, the yen still made some notable gains against higher-yielding currencies in the last 24 hours. The yen, however, was unable to steal some pips from the safe haven dollar.
The only data released was the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Base. The report, which measures the total change in the total amount of yen in circulation and deposits held at the BOJ, showed an increase of 8.6%, much higher than the 6.2% the market had initially expected. Increasing money supply is usually considered bullish for the domestic currency, as it could lead to inflation in the future.
No tier 1 data scheduled for release from Japan today, so the yen will probably be at the mercy of events happening in other major economies. Pay special attention to the BOE and the ECB interest rate decisions as they could have an indirect but strong impact on the yen’s price action.
When the high-yielding currencies start falling, you just know that the yen bulls will be busy taking advantage of it! USD/JPY slipped by 26 pips, while EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY sported huge spikes before capping the day at least 60 pips south of its open price. Booyah!
And to think that the Land of the Rising Sun didn’t even release any economic report! That’s right – it’s all thanks to Draghi, folks! Apparently, he set the bar pretty high last week, which had increased the probability of disappointing markets. And boy did he disappoint!
No data will be released from Japan again today, but investors are turning their focus on the NFP report in the U.S. coming up at 12:30 pm GMT. The data is seen to come in at 100,000 in July, but make sure you stick around in case there are any surprises!
The yen wasn’t able to tap its inner pip-ninja on Friday as risk appetite picked up. USD/JPY finished the week at 78.57 after starting the day at 78.21. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was up 202 pips at 97.28 by the New York session close.
It looks like the lack of economic reports from Japan left the currency vulnerable to market sentiment. Unfortunately for the yen bulls, the much-anticipated NFP figure from the U.S. came in better than expected and spurred some risk taking in the markets.
Our forex calendar is once again blank for reports from the Land of the Rising Sun today which could mean that market sentiment would probably continue to dictate the yen’s price action. Given that, be sure you’re on your toes for news that could affect the market’s overall mood.
When it comes to the BOJ and its stimulus plans, no news is good news for the yen! Thanks to speculations on the BOJ’s decision, the yen dominated its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading with USD/JPY dropping by 27 pips and EUR/JPY slipping by 25 pips. What’s up with the BOJ?
As it turns out, market players are speculating that the BOJ would keep its interest rates and bond purchasing program steady this month instead of actively weakening the strong yen. As a result, the yen bulls had charged against the currency’s major counterparts.
Unfortunately, a lot of rumors can still go around until Thursday when the central bank actually releases its decision. Today Japan is printing its current account data as well as its bank lending numbers. Both reports are expected to come in a bit stronger than last month’s figures, but keep close tabs on the numbers in case there are any surprises.
The Japanese yen was outpaced by its major rivals yesterday as USD/JPY closed 42 pips up from its 78.21 open price while EUR/JPY ended the day 2 pips shy of the 97.50 minor psychological level. Where could the yen be headed today?
Japanese data came in slightly better than expected yesterday as the current account surplus widened from 0.28 trillion JPY to 0.77 trillion JPY, higher than the consensus at 0.75 trillion JPY. Bank lending also showed an improvement for July as the figure climbed from 0.6% to 0.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Only the Japanese core machinery orders and the M2 money stock are set for release from Japan today, but these reports aren’t likely to have a huge impact on the yen’s price action. Better keep an eye out for other events and releases that could influence risk sentiment today!
The saying “what goes up, must go down,” couldn’t have held truer for the USD/JPY yesterday. After the pair’s strong performance on Tuesday, it simply fell apart in the last 24 hours. From its day open price at 78.63, the pair was pressured lower to close the U.S. trading session at 78.46.
There were not much in terms of data yesterday, but the yen did get a big boost from risk sentiment. Apparently, the German bund auction didn’t perform as well as expected and triggered a bit of risk aversion. In addition, there was the news that the German party CDU was in opposition to the backing of more financial aid to Greece.
Today’s a big day for the yen as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates. The market widely expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged at 0.10% and hold off additional quantitative easing measures. This means that the accompanying statement will be extremely vital in determining where the yen will go next. Be sure to read Forex Gump’s BOJ interest rate decision analysis.
The low-yielding yen let loose its “inner crazy” yesterday and moved wildly versus the safe haven dollar. The yen rallied slightly during the Asian and morning European trading session but it was unable to hold on to its gains and gave up all of the ground it gained – and then some – during the U.S. trading session. At the end of the day, the yen was down 14 pips.
The yen lost yesterday because of the possibility of further easing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t make any changes to policy but the accompanying statement said that the central bank would “proceed with monetary easing in a continuous manner by steadily increasing the amount outstanding by its asset purchase programme.” The prospect of the central bank flooding Japan’s economy with more money gave the yen bears an opportunity to sell the currency.
No red flags on Japan’s economic calendar today so don’t expect any major one directional moves today. In any case, still be careful with your trades. It is the end of the week, which means traders could start closing their trades in preparation for the weekend.
Between the dollar, euro, and yen, the Japanese currency was the markets’ top choice last Friday. It gained 33 pips against the Greenback while snatching 44 pips away from its European counterpart.
What’s surprising is that the yen has managed to hold on to its gains despite the release of softer-than-expected prelim GDP data earlier today. The latest figures revealed that the economy only grew 0.3% in Q2 2012, which is just half the growth that most economists had predicted.
No red flags on the calendar this week. But we do have a couple of notable reports due later at 11:50 pm GMT. The most recent BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes are due and they could provide us with valuable insight as to what the central bank plans to do to boost the economy and keep the yen grounded. Also, the tertiary industry activity report is supposed to come out, and it’s expected to print a growth of -0.3%, down from the previous month’s 0.7%.
But until these reports come out, it looks like the yen will be trading according to the market’s risk appetite. As I always say, when risk sentiment turns sour, expect the yen to show its power!
Thanks to a downside surprise in Japan’s GDP data, the yen received a triple roundhouse kick against its counterparts yesterday. EUR/JPY climbed by 46 pips, while GBP/JPY also rose to 122.90. What has gotten the yen bears so giddy?
Can you believe that it’s partly because of the PBoC that the yen had weakened? Remember that China had just printed its disappointing trade numbers late last week. When Japan’s GDP also printed to the downside, it supported beliefs that growth in the Asian markets are slowing down. Apparently, it also increased speculations that the PBoC will soon intervene by launching more stimulus, which propped up high-yielding currencies against the low-yielding yen.
Meanwhile, the BOJ minutes released a couple of minutes ago revealed that the BOJ folks still aren’t ruling out any easing options. They also said that growth prospects are broadly unchanged, while both the CPI and the domestic corporate goods price index are expected to be in line with the April forecasts.
No other news reports are scheduled for release today, so keep your eyes peeled for any market-moving reports in the other major economies!
Good luck trading today, homies!
With the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes providing no surprises, yen bears were free to sell-off the Japanese currency again. This led to a 38-pip rally in both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.
Since the BOJ minutes were published early in the day, the yen was left at the mercy of general market sentiment in the London and U.S. sessions. Unfortunately for yen bulls, the U.S. published a surprisingly upbeat retail sales report, which led traders to dump the yen in favor of the dollar.
Today, it looks like y’all will have to continue tracking market sentiment because Japan ain’t got nothing on the economic calendar. I suggest y’all check out my daily economic commentary on the U.S. if you’re looking for a potential catalyst on USD/JPY. Good luck and happy trading, fellas!