Daily Economic Commentary: Japan

The party continues for the yen bulls as overall risk aversion dragged on the yen crosses. Did Japan’s reports have anything to do with the yen’s performance?!

You bet your sweet pips it did! Yesterday we saw Japan’s retail sales numbers, which showed a 1.6% growth after clocking in a 0.8% uptick last month. Even BOJ’s Kuroda provided optimism for the Japanese economy when he said that the government is on track in pumping inflation into the markets.

Will today’s data put a dent on the yen’s rally? A couple of hours ago Japan’s household spending saw a 0.4% decline, which is weaker than the 1.2% uptick that many had expected. The preliminary industrial production also disappointed its expectations when it fell by 3.3% after rising by 1.9% last month. The unemployment rate is a breath of fresh air though, as it dropped to 3.9% from last month’s 4.0% rate.

No other news are scheduled to come out save for the manufacturing PMI at 11:15 pm GMT, so watch out for any report that might affect risk sentiment and demand for low-yielding currencies!

The yen had no swag on the charts in yesterday’s trading. It gave up 11 pips to the euro when EUR/JPY closed at 130.01 and 10 pips to the dollar when USD/JPY closes at 98.06.

No economic reports were released from Japan. This made the yen vulnerable to market sentiment. Today only second-tier data is due for the yen (average cash earnings seen at 0.1%) and it could take the backseat to the reports we have on tap from the U.S.

So if you plan on trading the yen today, make sure you don’t miss the U.S. GDP report and FOMC statement!

Just as USD/JPY first traded lower, then higher, then lower again, we saw similar movement across other yen pairs as well yesterday. By the end of the day, yen crosses pretty much stayed within their recent consolidation. Will we see a breakout today?

With no hard data due from Japan over the rest of the week, yen trading will probably takes its cues from data from other nations. Make sure you hit up my USD and EUR commentaries to find out what other reports may be headed our way today!

Poor guy! The yen was bullied into giving up its lunch money to its major counterparts, as USD/JPY jumped above the 99.00 mark while EUR/JPY climbed by roughly 150 pips. Will the yen have a chance to fight back today?

The lack of economic data from Japan left the yen vulnerable to currency-specific data yesterday, as its major counterparts were able to get a boost from better than expected figures. For instance, the U.S. dollar was able to flex its muscles after the initial jobless claims data and ISM manufacturing PMI both came in stronger than consensus.

There are no economic reports due from Japan today, which suggests that yen pairs could be swayed by data from other major economies. Take note though that the U.S. NFP is up for release today and that this could also have a huge impact on market sentiment. Stay on your toes!

Another mixed day for the yen! The Japanese currency managed to score some gains against the U.S. dollar and Aussie but it lost ground to the British pound. Will the yen be able to find a clearer direction today?

There were no economic reports released from Japan last Friday, which explains why the yen was practically directionless throughout the day. Yen pairs moved to the tune of country-specific reports instead, as GBP/JPY enjoyed a strong rally after the U.K. printed higher than expected construction PMI. As for USD/JPY, the currency pair lost ground when the U.S. reported a lower than expected NFP reading during the New York session.

Japan’s economic schedule is still empty again for today so we could see another mixed performance from the yen pairs. The yen might be able to find a definite direction midweek, as the BOJ is set to make its monetary policy decision along with the release of Japan’s current account balance on Thursday. On Friday, the tertiary industry activity index and the consumer confidence report are on tap.

Was that domination or what? The yen triple roundhouse kicked most of its counterparts yesterday as USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and even AUD/JPY all bowed to the yen’s strength. What exactly brought that on?

The Land of the Rising Sun didn’t release any economic report yesterday, but a round of profit-taking hit the yen traders after a significant decline in USD/JPY brought about by the weak US NPF report convinced some dollar bulls to take profits.

Today only the leading indicators report at 5:00 am GMT is scheduled for release. The report is seen to grow only by 108% after last month’s 110.7% uptick, but don’t discount the possibility of upside or downside surprises. And while you’re at it, don’t forget to keep your eyes peeled for any news that might impact the demand for low-yielding currencies!

Show us the money! The Japanese yen flexed its muscles again yesterday, enabling it to rally versus its western counterparts. USD/JPY, for instance, closed the day at 97.72, a solid 52 pips lower from its Asian session opening price.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has already set interest rates near zero, and with amount of money it has been pumping into the economy, it appears that there are very little things that the central bank can do to weaken the yen. Traders seem to be starting to realize this, which is leading them to buy the currency.

Data from Japan was disappointing. The Leading Indicators report was at 107.00, slightly lower than the 108.00 forecast. It was also a decline from the previous month’s 110.7.

Nothing on Japan’s economic platter today, so we’d probably either see the yen maintain yesterday’s trend or move sideways. Good luck trading today, folks!

The yen was as strong as my homeboy Cyclopip in yesterday’s trading as it powered through the charts. USD/JPY was down at 96.44 from 97.74 by the end of the New York session. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was down a whopping 154 pips by the end of the day.

No reports were released from the U.S. and Japan. The yen took its cue from the equity markets as the Nikkei declined by 4%. To top it off, we saw dollar weakness too! (Read more about it in my USD commentary.)

Today, the BOJ will announce its rate decision at 12:00 am GMT. No changes are expected in the bank’s monetary policy or economic assessment. This has led many to speculate that perhaps it would turn out to be a non-event.

However, be on your toes! Who knows, the BOJ may just surprise us! Be careful, okay?

Where did the yen’s swag, go?! The Asian currency chalked up losses in yesterday’s trading. USD/JPY finished the day higher at 96.70 from its opening price of 96.44. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was up 95 pips at 129.44 by the New York session close.

The BOJ didn’t really say anything new. In fact, the BOJ upped their inflation expectations and BOJ Governor Kuroda even sounded optimistic. On the domestic side, he remarked that income and consumption are picking up. He also mentioned Europe and China, saying that risks stemming from the two countries are now lower.

Despite this, it would seem that pick-up in risk appetite was too much for the yen to handle yesterday. Boo!

No biggies are due from Japan today. With that said, make sure you keep close tabs on the reports from the yen’s counterparts as they could affect the currency’s price action!

It was a good day to be a yen bull! The Japanese currency dominated its counterparts, pushing USD/JPY down 51 pips to 96.19 and EUR/JPY 107 pips lower to 128.37. Let’s see if momentum will carry these pairs lower this week!

Just a few moments ago, we got word that the Japanese economy grew less than expected in Q2 2013. The preliminary GDP report recorded a growth of just 0.6%, which is lower than the 0.9% forecast. As a slight consolation, however, the previous quarter’s 0.9% growth was revised up to 1.0%.

But so far, these numbers don’t seem to be affecting yen trading yet. We may have to wait for an external catalyst for the yen pairs to move.

Luckily, we’ve got a lot of hot releases from all over the world scheduled this week. Just check out our cool economic calendar to see what’s coming out!

Ooomph! The yen pared back some of its gains against its higher-yielding counterparts yesterday as traders priced in a weaker-than-expected GDP report from Japan. What does that tell us?

Yesterday we saw Japan’s GDP come in at 0.6% instead of the 0.9% growth that many had estimated. Not surprisingly, a weak growth reading was bearish for the yen as it suggested that Abe and his gang still have a long way to go at boosting economic activity.

The yen managed to recover some of its losses in the later trading sessions though, when traders analyzed the details of the GDP report. Details show that public investment, inventories, and capital expenditures showed weakness while exports and consumer spending held their ground.

Let’s see if Japan’s reports will once again dictate the yen’s price action. A while ago we saw Japan’s core machinery orders come in at -2.7% for the month of June, which is lower than May’s 10.5% but is a heck of a lot better than the expected -7.1% reading. Then, in a few minutes we’ll see the BOJ’s meeting minutes, which is expected to show the central bank’s optimism for economic growth. Will it be enough to bring back the yen’s gains?

Guess who’s back in Loserville? Yep, that’s right, it’s the yen! The Japanese currency was no match to the strength of its major rivals in yesterday’s trading. USD/JPY jumped up to the 98.00 area while climbed to a high of 152.09. Can the yen get back on its feet today?

Data from Japan was actually better than expected, with the core machinery orders posting a mere 2.7% decline instead of the estimated 7.1% drop. Meanwhile, the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes contained no surprises, as the central bank decided to maintain their current level of easing.

What sparked the yen’s heavy selloff was a news report that mentioned Prime Minister Abe’s plan to counteract the increase in consumption taxes with a decrease in corporate taxes. In doing so, he hopes that spending will still stay afloat and that the country could attract more foreign investments. This resulted in a rally among Japanese equities and a corresponding yen selloff.

There are no reports due from Japan today so make sure you stay alert for any relevant updates on the Japanese economy. Good luck!

If I were to describe the yen’s price action in one word, it would be choppy. The yen was unable to find a clear direction yesterday, moving sideways versus other major currencies. USD/JPY, for instance, traded simply traded within a 60-pip range, finding support at 97.86 and resistance just below the 98.50 minor psychological handle.

Japan’s economic cupboard for today is completely empty, just like yesterday. As such, the yen’s direction will likely be dictated by news reports released elsewhere, especially the ones from the U.S. or the euro zone.

Despite the lack of reports from Japan, the yen still kicked butt on the charts yesterday. USD/JPY was down at 97.24 by the end of the New York session, down 83 pips for the day. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was at 130.04 after opening at 130.30.

I wonder if market sentiment will continue to favor the yen today. If you plan on trading the currency, make sure you keep tabs on the reports that we have from the U.S. and euro zone!

Because of the absence of tier 1 events last Friday, the yen ranged for the entire trading day. It started the Asian trading session 97.24, paced back and forth between support at 97.05 and resistance at 97.77, and then closed at 97.54.

Earlier today, Japan’s trade balance was released. It published a disappointing result as it showed a 940 billion JPY deficit. The actual figure was significantly lower than both forecast (730 billion JPY deficit) and the previous month’s figure (660 billion JPY deficit). A declining trade balance is normally considered bearish for the domestic currency since Japanese companies must convert the domestic currency to foreign currencies to pay for their imports.

Japan’s forex calendar is completely empty this week. No red flags are on tap, which means the yen’s direction will likely be dictated by events taking place in other major economies like the U.S. and the euro zone.

Just when it seemed like JPY pairs were gonna shoot off to new highs, the yen came storming back in latter sessions. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY all traded well off their daily highs as the yen gained steam late in the day. Will we see more of the same today?

The key data to keep an eye on right now for the yen is what is happening with U.S. yields. Anticipation of September tapering is causing yields to rise, which in turn should lead to a rise in USD/JPY (and subsequently, other yen pairs as well). While that wasn’t the case yesterday, this is still something to pay attention to, as you never know when yields on 10-year bonds will spike above 3.0% or what may happen then.

The yen’s scorecard was as mixed as a bag of nuts in yesterday’s trading. While it gained 23 pips from the dollar when USD/JPY closed at 97.24, it gave up 48 pips to the euro when EUR/JPY finished the day at 130.51.

No reports were released from Japan yesterday. Consequently, the yen was left at the mercy of market sentiment. It got lucky against the dollar because Treasury bond yields traded lower but it was no match for the euro which found support in upwardly revised growth forecasts.

Our forex calendar is once again blank for reports for the yen. With that said, make sure you keep tabs on the reports scheduled for its counterparts as they could affect its price action today. Good luck!

The lack of economic reports from Japan left the yen vulnerable to market sentiment yesterday. By the New York session close, it was down 57 pips against the dollar at 97.81 while it gave up 11 pips to the euro at 130.62.

No news reports were released from Japan. However, the Nuclear Regulation Authority did make the announcement that the leak in the Fukushima Nuclear Plant has intensified, raising the warning level to 3. This caused a bit of concern for the economy as this could mean that Japan will have to spend more on importing fuel.

Of course, it also didn’t help the yen that the FOMC meeting minutes turned out to be hawkish.

Still no reprots are due for the currency today. If you plan on trading it, make sure you keep close tabs on market sentiment! Remember that it tends to do well when risk aversion is in play.

Down goes the yen! USD/JPY staged its biggest rally in over a week as the pair climbed 89 pips to finish at 98.70. Where is the market headed?

So far, it seems as though price action on USD/JPY has been dictated by the market’s appetite for dollars. Unfortunately for the yen, U.S. Treasury yields have been rising and propping up the Greenback.

Without any economic reports coming from the yen today, it looks like price action on USD/JPY will continue to be dictated by the dollar’s movements. Luckily, we have a potential catalyst in the U.S. new home sales report, which is due at 2:00 pm GMT. So if you’re looking for news to trade, y’all know where to find it, homies! Just check out our awesome economic calendar!

We didn’t see much movement on USD/JPY last week. The pair tested and found resistance at the 99.00 handle, but it eventually rested at 98.67, down 3 pips on the day.

A strong rise in the Nikkei pushed USD/JPY up briefly above a key resistance level last Friday, but sadly, the rally wasn’t sustained.

For the coming days, movements in the Japanese stock market may continue to drive USD/JPY price action, especially since Japan won’t be publishing anything new until Wednesday. The good news is that we can look forward to seeing retail sales, CPI, employment, household spending, and housing starts data later in the week.

But for now, if you plan on trading this pair, keep in mind that the U.S. has some notable releases due in the coming days that may provide markets with a bit of fuel to move.