Daily Economic Commentary: Japan

Slowly but surely! The Japanese yen edged higher against most of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading, pushing USD/JPY back below the 99.00 major psychological level and EUR/JPY to a low of 133.09. Can the yen continue to rally today?

Japanese bankers were on a holiday yesterday but this didn’t stop the yen from having a party in the charts! Apparently, there were speculations the Japanese government has already outlined the plans to offset the impact of Abe’s proposed sales tax and that this might involve a reduction in corporate taxes. Rumor has it that the government will make a special announcement regarding this issue on October 1, so y’all better watch out for that!

There are no reports due from Japan today so yen traders will probably keep their eyes and ears peeled for any updates regarding the government’s stimulus plans. Be careful out there!

Once again, the yen showed the markets who’s boss yesterday after it posted gains against most of its counterparts. Did it have anything to do with Japan’s economic reports?

Not this time. The Land of the Rising Sun didn’t print any major data yesterday, but risk aversion and a couple of weak reports from other economies limited the demand for yen crosses. Of course, it might have also helped that talks of more stimulus in Japan are still circulating in the markets.

The economic board is empty again today, so the yen will most likely trade on risk appetite again. Keep close tabs on the major news reports due today as well as any news bite that could affect the appetite for low-yielding currencies!

Out of the way! Yen bulls a-chargin’! The Japanese currency carried on with its winning ways yesterday, taking EUR/JPY below the 133.00 handle and AUD/JPY to a low of 91.91. Can the yen keep up its rallies today?

Even though there were no major reports released from Japan yesterday, risk aversion and the anti-dollar sentiment joined forces and boosted the lower-yielding yen. After all, the Japanese yen appears to be the better safe-haven alternative these days, as the U.S. dollar is under pressure from the upcoming debt ceiling deadline.

Japan’s economic schedule is still empty again for today so watch out for any updates on the Japanese government’s proposed stimulus plan targeted at offsetting the negative effects of the sales tax increase. Bear in mind that a solid battle plan from the government would lessen the need for further easing from the BOJ. Do keep tabs on Japanese bond yields and the Nikkei as well!

The yen was delegated to the losers’ table yesterday after a couple of news reports from Japan encouraged a yen selloff. What the heck came out from Japan anyway?!

It wasn’t economic reports, that’s for sure. The only economic data out over the past couple of hours is the nation and Tokyo’s core CPI numbers. Although the reports came in mixed, that wasn’t why the yen was dropped like a hot potato yesterday.

Apparently, a report from Kyodo News hinted that the government would present a plan for more stimulus as well as a cut in corporate taxes as early as October 1. If you remember, Abe and his friends are planning to raise the country’s sales-tax by next year.

It also didn’t help the yen that Takatoshi Ito, the chairman of the Japanese committee on pension reform, urged major investors to diversify away from JGBs and into equities, properties, and commodities. He didn’t emphasize investment to foreign assets though, which explains why the yen selloff abated in the later trading sessions.

No news is expected from the Land of the Rising Sun today, so make sure you watch out for any speeches or news that might affect the sentiment for the yen!

Take a look at those weekend gaps! The Japanese yen was so strong last Friday that yen pairs couldn’t help but open lower over this Monday. USD/JPY started the week off at 97.89 while GBP/JPY slipped below the 158.00 level. Can the yen keep rallying today?

Positive inflation data from Japan allowed the yen to keep up its winning streak on Friday, as the national core CPI beat expectations and showed a 0.8% increase in price levels. In Tokyo, the core CPI came in at 0.4%, slightly lower than the estimated 0.5% uptick.

Earlier today, most Japanese reports came in line with expectations and could help support the yen for the rest of the day. The manufacturing PMI improved from 52.2 to 52.5, reflecting a stronger expansion in the industry, while retail sales printed a 1.1% jump. Industrial production, however, fell short of consensus and printed a 0.7% decline instead of the estimated 0.4% drop.

There are no other reports due from Japan for the rest of the day, as risk sentiment could still keep the yen afloat. Remember that the U.S. debt ceiling deadline is coming up and the prospect of a government shutdown is keeping traders away from the higher-yielding currencies.

For tomorrow, watch out for the release of the household spending data, unemployment rate, and Tankan manufacturing reports. Bear in mind that Abe will base his sales tax increase on the outcome of the Tankan figures, as strong data could show that it is safe enough to hike taxes without hurting industry performance. Do stay on your toes for any announcements on the government’s stimulus package designed to offset the negative impact of the sales tax as well!

Who’s back in Loserville? The yen is! The Asian currency took a hit yesterday after Japan’s reports mostly came in worse-than-expected. Check out your USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY charts if you don’t believe me!

Japan’s economic reports didn’t help the yen as the industrial production, consumer spending, and employment numbers mostly came in mixed. There was also speculation that Prime Minister Abe would announce the sales-tax increase today, which could be cushioned by a reduction in corporate taxes as well as additional stimulus.

We only have a few more hours to wait before Abe begins his speech, so keep your eyes glued to the news wires!

The yen sure likes to mix things up, doesn’t it? The Japanese currency was able to score some gains against the euro and pound, but it gave up some of its recent wins to the Australian dollar. EUR/JPY slid to the 132.50 area while AUD/JPY edged higher to the 92.00 mark.

Japanese data came in mixed yesterday, with the household spending report and unemployment rate printing weaker than expected results. Household spending slipped by 1.6% instead of rising by 0.2% while the jobless rate jumped from 3.8% to 4.1% instead of holding steady.

On the other hand, the Tankan manufacturing index was stronger than expected, as the figure climbed from 4 to 12 for the third quarter. That’s its highest reading since 2007! This shows that confidence in the manufacturing industry is at an all-time high, as Prime Minister Abe has promised to take steps to cushion the blow of the sales tax increase. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing component came in line with consensus at a reading of 14.

There are no reports from Japan today, as the yen might be extra sensitive to market sentiment. Stay on your toes because anything can happen!

Ding ding ding ding! The yen hit a jackpot against its major counterparts yesterday as investors reacted to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s speech. EUR/JPY got away with only a 9-pip scratch, but USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY show deeper losses.

Japan didn’t print any major economic report yesterday, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s latest speech was enough to spur on the yen bulls. See, investors were expecting Abe to announce a corporate tax cut along with the sales-tax increase. When Abe failed to meet expectations, the Nikkei reacted negatively and caused a flight to safer assets like the yen.

We won’t be seeing any reports again today, but keep in mind that the BOJ Governor Kuroda and his team will begin their meeting today to discuss this month’s monetary policy decision. Will they hint at more stimulus now that a sales-tax increase is a done deal?

Way to go, yen! The Japanese currency scored gains against most of its rivals, except for the euro. USD/JPY dipped to a new monthly low of 96.93 while GBP/JPY tumbled to the 157.00 handle. EUR/JPY, on the other hand, rallied to a high of 133.21.

There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday, as much of the yen’s price action can be attributed to traders pricing in their expectations ahead of today’s BOJ interest rate decision. The central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged, although we could hear about their willingness to add stimulus if the recently announced sales tax hike would hurt the economy.

Other than that, the coast is clear for Japan in terms of economic data. Make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment too, as the U.S. government shutdown is likely to keep risk-taking in check.

The yen’s price action was as mixed as jellybeans as it lost to the dollar and the Aussie but gained against the euro and the pound. Did the BOJ’s monetary policy decision have anything to do with that?

Not really. Last Friday the central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged and expressed optimism for the economy. The yen strengthened a bit in the late Asian session before sentiment for the other major currencies dictated the yen’s price action.

What’s probably more headline-worthy is how Shinzo Abe softened towards a cut in corporate taxes. In a speech, he hinted that corporations could use some help to counter their potential losses from the sales-tax increase.

The only economic reports that we have to watch out for today are the BOJ monthly report and leading indicators data at 5:00 am GMT and Japan’s current account numbers at 11:50 pm GMT.

When risk is off, the yen bulls love to party! The Japanese currency took advantage of traders’ appetite for lower-yielding currencies yesterday, as it raked in the gains against its counterparts. EUR/JPY tumbled below the 132.00 handle while GBP/JPY sank below 156.00.

Japan’s data was actually slightly weaker than expected yesterday, as the leading indicators index showed a 106.5% reading instead of the estimated 106.9% figure. The August figure was also lower than the previous month’s 107.8% reading, hinting at a slight downturn in economic performance.

Earlier today, Japan reported a weaker than expected current account balance. The surplus increased from 0.33 trillion JPY to 0.35 trillion JPY but it was weaker than the estimated 0.65 trillion JPY figure.

Later on, Japan will report its Economy Watchers sentiment index and possibly see an improvement from 51.2 to 52.2, reflecting improved optimism for the Japanese economy. Watch out for the actual release at 6:00 am GMT and keep tabs on potential changes in market sentiment to figure out how the yen could behave. Good luck!

Doji alert! The yen got almost nowhere against its counterparts yesterday thanks to the lack of market-moving catalysts in the streets. USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/JPY capped the day with dojis without making significant intraday highs and lows.

It didn’t even help the yen that the economy watchers sentiment report came in at 52.8 instead of the expected 52.2 reading.

A few hours ago the Bank of Japan released its latest meeting minutes. The central bank expressed that it would continue its stimulus program as long as necessary, but that the improvements in business confidence and the economy aren’t motivating them to make any changes right now.

At 6:00 am GMT today we’ll see Japan’s preliminary machinery tools orders, followed by the core machinery orders at 11:50 pm GMT. The reports are expected to show improvements, but watch these closely in case we see surprises!

Looks like the yen bears won’t go down without a fight! Yen pairs were tugged this way and that, as risk sentiment kept shifting yesterday. EUR/JPY jumped to a high of 132.19 then slipped to a low of 131.24 while USD/JPY managed to pull up to a high of 97.65.

Japan’s preliminary machine tools orders printed a whopping 6.3% annual decline for August, worse than the previous month’s 1.7% drop. Although this triggered a yen selloff during the Asian session, the Japanese currency was able to make a good rebound later on when risk aversion kicked in.

Earlier today, Japan release its core machinery orders report and its tertiary industry activity index. Core machinery orders were up by 5.4%, almost twice as much as the estimated 2.9% increase, while the tertiary industry activity index printed a 0.7% uptick.

Later on, Japan will hold its 30-year bond auction and release its consumer confidence report around 5:00 am GMT. Stay on your toes for more movement among the yen pairs then, as weak data could put yen bears in control once again.

What a bloodbath! Thanks to overall risk appetite and strong Nikkei performance, the yen plunged across the board. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY all showed significant gains with USD/JPY closing above the 98.00 handle.

As I mentioned in my USD update, speculations of a US debt ceiling deal spread optimism in the markets. It also didn’t help the yen that Japan’s reports printed positively, which helped boost the Nikkei to close 1.12% higher.

Let’s see if the yen will end the week deep in the red. Japan won’t be releasing economic data today, so you might want to keep your eyes on Nikkei performance as well as risk appetite.

Good luck!

The yen was the biggest loser in the markets last Friday as traders lightened their yen exposure. Can you guess the factors that boosted USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY?

If you guessed strong equities markets then you better give yourself a pat on the back! Optimism for a debt ceiling deal in Washington propped up optimism for the Asian markets. The move was sustained in the later trading sessions especially since there were no major reports to encourage an intraday sentiment change.

Japan is out on a bank holiday as the Japanese celebrate Health-Sports Day but that doesn’t mean that the yen won’t get any action! Keep an eye out for any report that might affect risk sentiment, aight?

It was another sad day for the Japanese Yen as sentiment shifted late in Monday’s trading session on optimism of a US debt deal going through. It was a broad hit to the Yen, but with the US bank holiday and prevailing US government uncertainty, the volatility was limited. After gapping lower at the week open price of 98.15, USD/JPY ended the day up 41 pips at 98.56.

In an hour or so, Japanese data will hopefully spark some volatility with its final read on the monthly industrial production number, forecasted at -0.7% (inline with the previous read). We’ll also get the capacity utilization report which previously read at 3.7%. After those reports, price action will be dictated by broad risk sentiment, so be sure to stay focused on the big picture!

Looks like the yen won’t go down without a fight! The Japanese currency struggled to make gains against its major currency rivals, as GBP/JPY consolidated around the 157.50 area while AUD/JPY was unable to break past the 94.00 handle. Can the yen go for more gains?

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of a decision on the debt ceiling kept risk aversion in the markets yesterday, lifting the lower-yielding yen in the process. There were no major reports released from Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that risk sentiment could dictate where the yen will be headed.

Take note that Prime Minister Abe just opened the parliamentary session whose agenda is to discuss the details of the next set of stimulus efforts. The session is scheduled to last until the first week of December so any announcements of aggressive easing measures until then might be negative for the yen. Stay on your toes!

The yen was the biggest loser yesterday as it lost pips against the dollar, euro, pound, and even the Aussie. How the heck did that happen when Japan didn’t even release any economic report?!

As I pointed out in my USD and GBP updates, risk appetite dominated the U.S. session trading as policymakers hinted at a deal that would re-open the U.S. federal government and extend the debt ceiling until early next year. The postponement of uncertainty was enough to spur on the currency bulls, who sold the low-yielding yen in favor of the higher-yielding currencies.

Japan won’t be releasing any report again today, so the yen will most likely trade on risk sentiment again. Be at the edge of your seats in case we see any more updates regarding the debt ceiling brouhaha, aight?

D’oh! The Japanese yen was extra clumsy in yesterday’s trading as it had trouble getting back on its feet. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY soared up the charts while USD/JPY spent a brief moment above the 99.00 mark before crashing below 98.00.

There were no reports released from Japan yesterday as risk sentiment was the primary driver of price action. Unfortunately for the lower-yielding yen, risk appetite surged yesterday when the U.S. passed a deal on extending the debt ceiling deadline and announced that the government shutdown was over. It did manage to score some gains against the U.S. dollar later on, when a Chinese rating agency reportedly downgraded U.S. debt.

There are no reports lined up for Japan today but BOJ Governor Kuroda has a speech scheduled sometime around the end of the Asian trading session. Watch out for potential volatility and possible profit-taking for the rest of the day! Good luck!

You win some, you lose some. The yen managed to hold off more losses from some of its major counterparts as Nikkei snaps its consecutive gains on profit-taking. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY ended the day with dojis without hitting significant intraday highs and lows.

The yen started the day on a negative note as better-than-expected reports from China propped up risk appetite and the Nikkei and weighed on the low-yielding yen. The weakness didn’t last, however, thanks to a bout of profit-taking in the later trading sessions.

Let’s see if the yen will pick up its volatility again this week. Early today Japan printed its FIFTEENTH monthly trade deficit in a row, a record, as the annualized growth of imports (16.5%) outpaced exports (11.5%). With the yen falling by nearly 25% against the dollar since November, it’s not surprising that import costs have grown. Unfortunately, the exports demand hasn’t kept up yet.

Still, word around is that it is additional fuel demand following the shutdown of Japan’s nuclear plants that is propping up imports. Not only that, but domestic demand isn’t that bad either. This is probably why Nikkei is reacting positively to the report, which is weighing on the yen a little in early Asian trading.

The next report we’ll see today is the all industries data at 4:30 am GMT. The report doesn’t usually have a significant impact on the yen, so you might want to keep an eye out for news that might affect risk sentiment instead.