Daily Economic Commentary: New Zealand

Not today, my friend! The Kiwi ended its winning streak against the Greenback yesterday despite the lack of economic reports in New Zealand. NZD/USD reached an intraday high of .7785, but demand for the scrilla closed the pair 2 pips above its intraday low at .7728.

The Kiwi bulls and bears will have to look elsewhere for some action today as no economic report from New Zealand is scheduled today. Keep your eyes on the comdolls though, as rising commodity prices can push commodity-related currencies like the Kiwi higher in the charts.

No economic report was released from New Zealand yesterday, but that didn’t keep the Kiwi from getting any action! Too bad it was the bad kind of action. NZD/USD dropped all the way to its intraday low of .7641 before leveling off to a 63-pip loss at .7667.

It seemed that the comdolls all took a hit when commodity prices dropped yesterday. Gold, oil, and copper prices fell by more than 2%, and lessened the demand for the commodity-related currencies like the Kiwi.

The boards are once again empty for New Zealand today, but keep close tabs on any reports that could affect comdoll trading!

And the nightmare continues for Kiwi bulls! Yesterday, the Kiwi chalked up its third and largest decline this week. Without a single report to support the Kiwi, NZD/USD continued on its southern course and recorded an 87-pip slide to finish at .7579.

It seems like someone still has a holiday hangover… New Zealand has yet to publish a single report this week! As a result, general market sentiment and commodity prices have been driving the Kiwi’s moves. Unfortunately, commodity prices have been diving recently, to the dismay of Kiwi bulls.

Taking a look at the economic calendar, it looks like we’ll have more of the same today. Since we don’t have any New Zealand reports on tap, it might be smart to check out the tier 1 reports that Australia and Canada will be rolling out. The comdolls like to move in unison, so there’s a chance the Kiwi may follow in the footsteps of its comdoll brethren.

Phew! The Kiwi put up a good fight yesterday as it managed to refrain from incurring more losses against the Greenback. NZD/USD ranged between the .7550 to .7600 area for almost the entire day.

Even though New Zealand didn’t release any economic reports yesterday, the Kiwi was able to hold its ground pretty well. Maybe traders grew tired of buying up the Greenback when it saw that the U.S. reports released yesterday didn’t come in as expected.

New Zealand’s economic schedule is empty again today but we might see a little more action in NZD/USD as the U.S. gears up to release its employment report today. That means there could be a lot of fireworks on the charts later on, so make sure you read my U.S. commentary or Forex Gump’s thoughts on the upcoming NFP.

At least it wasn’t a sweep! After four days of consecutive losses, the Kiwi finally posted some gains on Friday. After opening at .7573, the pair finished 38 pips higher to finish at .7611.

Have the effects of the Australian floods finally subsided? Or are Kiwi bears merely taking a rest? We’ll have to wait and see over the next few days, but make sure you keep an eye on any news about the flash floods. Weather conditions have a huge impact on Australian business, which will indirectly affect New Zealand as well.

Later today at 9:00 pm GMT, the NZIER business confidence report is due. No forecast has been released for this report, but take note that last month the report printed a score of 6. A figure higher than this would indicate improving business confidence, and could temporarily boost the struggling Kiwi.

It’s all good, baby! Good vibes came from all around New Zealand thanks to a few positive reports to start the week. With all reports giving Kiwi bulls the green light, NZD/USD closed 43 pips higher at .7633.

Still feeding off the gains in exports shown in the trade balance figures released Sunday night, the Kiwi found even more fuel to power its rally earlier today. But will it be enough to fight the pull of gravity and carry the Kiwi higher?

According to the latest NZIER business confidence report, businesses have got their confidence back! Well, at least some of it. After dropping its reading from 18 to 6 in Q3 2010, the report printed slightly higher in Q4 2010, showing a reading of 8. I’m inclined to believe that the positive outlook for exports and stronger consumer spending have something to do with the improvement.

In other news, the building consents report showed a strong rebound from the 1.8% decline seen in October. To reverse the recent declines, November posted an impressive 8.8% rise. I daresay, these might be the first signs of confidence returning to the New Zealand economy!

Since New Zealand won’t be making any releases today, you might be interested in seeing what the other comdoll countries have to offer. Canada and Australia are due to publish a few noteworthy reports that could drive the comdolls in one direction. And of course, keep an eye on commodities!

No love for the Kiwi yesterday… Kiwi traders shrugged off the positive economic releases early in the day and sold off the currency anyway! NZD/USD opened at .7633 and finished the day off at .7610.

As I had mentioned yesterday, the NZIER business confidence report and building consents data both showed respectable improvements. Not only did business confidence pick up in Q4 of 2010, but building permits also increased by 8.8%, the strongest rise since early 2009.

So what caused the drop? Well, it seems Australia’s flooding woes have spilled over to New Zealand as well. The Kiwi is said to have been dragged down by the Aussie’s weakness.

The economic calendar is blank for New Zealand today, so for now, head on over to the U.S. for news releases. The U.S. has quite a few events scheduled, including Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech and the release of the Beige Book. These events have the potential to move all currencies if they reveal any surprises, so be sure to check ‘em out!

Action on NZD/USD yesterday was as intense as my new P90x workout. Bears burned pips during the Asian session and pushed the pair to an intraday low of .7563. From there the bulls took over and hustled NZD/USD to close 15 pips higher from its opening price at .7625.

With still nothing on our economic calendar from New Zealand today, you may want to turn your attention to market sentiment and the roster of reports that we have from the U.S. to help you trade the Kiwi. Good luck and be careful, aight? Peace out!

What a way to set yourself apart, Kiwi! The Kiwi walked tall yesterday as it was the best-performing currency among the comdolls. NZD/USD ended the day at .7693 after climbing 66 pips up the chart.

With no economic data backing its climb, the Kiwi was propelled higher by Greenback weakness and eased concerns over the euro zone.

For today, you’ll have to set your eyes elsewhere if you’re looking to trade the news since New Zealand’s economic docket is empty. U.S. retail sales figures are due today, and maybe disappointing results in this report will give you the NZD/USD rally you’ve been waiting for.

It’s all about giving and taking for the Kiwi! After gaining ground and taking away pips from the Greenback for two straight days, it decided to give back some of its recent gain last Friday. At the end of the New York session, NZD/USD had slid 28 pips to finish at .7668.

The Kiwi was in a familiar situation last Friday with no economic releases to direct it, so it turned to foreign developments for direction. Unfortunately, China decided to raise its reserve ratio last Friday, which shot down demand for commodity currencies. Why so? Well, raising the reserve ratio tends to suppress growth. Now if China’s growth decelerates, it could lead to a decrease in its demand for commodities.

This week, we’ve got a couple of hard-hitters on deck. At 9:45 pm GMT on Wednesday, New Zealand is set to publish last month’s CPI. The index is expected to double its reading from 1.1% to 2.3% in December. Keep a close eye on this release because the RBNZ watches this report closely for its monetary policy decisions.

The following day, still at 9:45 pm GMT, we’ll take a peek at the latest retail sales figures. Can November deliver the 1.3% rise that most had forecasted to follow the 2.5% decline of October? You’ll just have to wait and see for yourself to find out!

With risk appetite on its side, the Kiwi became a rocketeer in yesterday’s trading. NZD/USD rallied past the .7700 psychological handle and tapped an intraday high of .7748 before landing at .7722 to close the day.

Good thing there were enough good vibes to go around and get traders craving for the Kiwi despite negative data.

According to REINZ, house prices declined by 0.6% in December after increasing by 1.9% in November. There was also the food price report for the month that showed easing inflationary pressures in the country. It printed at -0.8% in December, showing continued decline from November’s -0.6% reading.

Our economic calendar is blank for data from New Zealand today. And so, you may want to keep for fingers crossed for risk appetite to stay if you’re planning to root for the comdoll.

Tomorrow we’ll get a better feel of inflation in the country with the CPI report for December due at 9:45 pm GMT. Watch out for a figure higher than the 2.4% uptick that the market is expecting because that will probably be bullish for the currency.

Before that, at 9:30 pm GMT, we’ll have the BNZ-Business PMI for November. Note that a reading better than the 52.7 figure we saw in November would imply improving manufacturing conditions in New Zealand.

Boo hoo! The Kiwi was the only currency that ended lower against the Greenback yesterday. NZD/USD opened at .7722, reached a high of .7742, but closed at .7705. That’s probably because the Kiwi wasn’t able to draw support from fundamentals since its economic calendar is empty… but all that could change today.

Today, New Zealand is set to report the Business NZ manufacturing index and its CPI for the last quarter of 2010. No forecast has been given for the manufacturing index but an improvement over the 52.7 reading for November could be bullish for the Kiwi. Meanwhile, quarterly inflation is expected to be up by 2.3%, higher than the 1.1% rise in price levels previously seen. Watch out for those reports due around 9:30 pm GMT!

The Kiwi was off to a strong start yesterday, as NZD/USD opened at .7704 and rallied to a high of .7788. Later on, its day took a turn for the worse when New Zealand released its quarterly CPI. Because of that, NZD/USD completely erased its gains for the day and closed 5 pips below its daily open price.

The quarterly inflation report met market expectations and posted a 2.3% increase in price levels for the last quarter of 2010. However, components of the report revealed that the rise was due to the government’s move to increase the goods and services tax instead of an actual uptick in price levels. Although the Q4 2010 CPI was higher than the 1.1% reading for the previous quarter, it probably won’t be enough to convince the RBNZ to hike interest rates anytime soon.

Today, New Zealand is set to release its retail sales report at 9:45 pm GMT. After dipping by 2.5% in October, consumer spending is expected to rebound by 1.3% in November. If the actual figure comes in better than consensus, the Kiwi could resume its climb. Stay tuned for that!

Just like the Old Spice guy, NZD/USD swan-dived from its opening price of .7696 all the way down to .7532 before closing the day at .7586. Geronimooo! So what caused the Kiwi’s fall into the pip-deeps?

Bears had the perfect combo of not-so-good fundamentals and risk sentiment up in their coffers during yesterday’s trading. Let’s take a look at them, shall we?

First there was the retail sales report for November. At first glance, it looked good for the Kiwi because it showed that overall consumer spending was up 1.5% and beat the 1.1% forecast after declining by 2.5% in October. However, excluding volatile items, we see that retail sales fell by -0.2% during the month.

On the other hand the positive data from China is said to have sparked risk aversion fueling speculations about another interest rate hike from the PBOC, highlighting the dollar’s safe haven status. It also didn’t help that unlike the data it got for the day, the U.S. economy actually printed better-than-expected figures, making the dollar stronger.

We don’t have anything on tap for the Kiwi today so you may want to gauge market sentiment first before you bet your pips on it. Peace out y’all!

Just like its com-doll sibling aross the Tasman Sea, Kiwi trading was as chill as Pip Surfer whenever he hits the beach. NZD/USD traded within a range of 90 pips, ultimately closing at .7586, its opening price for the day.

While no economic data is scheduled for release today and tomorrow, make sure you keep an eye out on Australian data and news. Australian inflation reports (PPI and CPI) will be released, and depending on the results, could spark a spike in volatility in Aussie trading. With the Kiwi being highly correlated with the Aussie, we could see a ripple effect take place on Kiwi pairs, so watch out.

On Wednesday, the RBNZ will be releasing its interest rate decision. Nobody expects RBNZ head Alan Bollard to hike rates, especially given the current conditions (Australian floods). I’ll be listening to this report, and you should too – you never know if a central banker may drop a hint as to what the RBNZ plans to do in the coming months.

Weeee!!! Risk appetite in markets pulled the Kiwi along the comdolls’ ride up the charts despite the lack of economic reports in New Zealand. NZD/USD climbed by 47 pips after dropping to an intraday low of .7567.

The docket is empty again today, but keep close tabs on any reports that might affect comdoll trading! As a high-yielding currency Kiwi trading is usually affected by the waves of risk sentiment in markets.

Dollar ain’t got nothing on you, Kiwi! After kickin’ it like Adidas at its opening price of .7635 during the European session, NZD/USD traded higher on the latter part of the day and closed at .7675.

Economic gurus say that it was the combo of risk appetite and a relatively weak dollar that allowed the Kiwi to end the day positive. Unlike its comdoll homies, Aussie and Loonie, there wasn’t any economic report released from New Zealand to rain on the Kiwi’s parade up the charts.

With our economic calendar still blank for reports, let’s see if the currency will get lucky with investors for another day. Be on your toes for any shift in market sentiment, ayt? Remember that risk aversion usually doesn’t sit well with Kiwi bulls.

Despite the RBNZ’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the Kiwi was still able to end the day with a 31-pip win. NZD/USD skyrocketed just before the New York session came to a close from an intraday low of .7645 to close at .7708.

And not only that! RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard also hinted that he won’t holler any rate hike until the central bank sees a “more robust” recovery. Then again, some economic gurus think that this was relatively more optimistic than the previous statement when a fragile economy was described.

It also helped that the FOMC sounded more dovish than expected. So with nothing on tap on our economic calendar from New Zealand today, make sure you keep an ear out for reports from the U.S.

Good luck!

Whew! Dodged a bullet on that one! The Kiwi ended the day on a near draw against the Greenback last Friday despite the wave of risk aversion in markets. No economic report was released from New Zealand, but NZD/USD capped the day at .7722 after tipping an intraday high of .7794.

Let’s see if the Kiwi can keep its gains coming today. The building consents report yesterday started off on the wrong foot when it declined by 18.6% in December after showing a 7.8% increase in November. Its trade balance report is also giving the Kiwi bulls a reason to flee with its 250 million NZD deficit. Hmm, does this mean that New Zealand’s exports are taking a backseat in the markets?

The labor cost index for the fourth quarter of 2010 is due today at 9:45pm GMT. The price that businesses pay for labor is expected to increase by 0.5% after rising by 0.6% in the third quarter, but a higher number could wipe off some of the Kiwi’s losses early today.

Stay sharp, kids!

Ho humm… NZD/USD was stuck in a range yesterday as it bounced a couple of times from the .7685 area and found resistance near .7740. Is there anything on today’s economic schedule that could trigger a breakout?

But first, a quick review of the recently released economic report from New Zealand. Their labor cost index posted upbeat results as it climbed by 0.6% in the last quarter of 2010, beating the consensus of a 0.5% increase. This means that businesses are paying their employees more, and this increase in cost could eventually contribute to consumer inflation. And we all know what higher inflation could lead to, don’t we? Why, interest rate hikes, of course!

Today, there are no red flags on New Zealand’s economic schedule but the Kiwi could spring into action during the RBA’s rate statement. After all, New Zealand is Australia’s closest trading partner and the outlook for the Land Down Under usually has an impact on NZD/USD’s movement. Make sure you keep your eyes and ears peeled for the RBA policy decision and accompanying statement at 3:30 am GMT.