The Kiwi dropped faster than a Travis Barker beat to its 10-week low at .7384, before ending yesterday’s trading at .7432 with a 48-pip loss to the dollar. Ouch! Why?
Well, what we saw yesterday was another classic case of loose lips, sink pips.
New Zealand Prime Minister John Key said that he won’t be surprised if the RBNZ cut interest rates to help stimulate economic growth following the Christchurch earthquake. Duhn duhn, duhnnnn!
Although the government’s head honcho didn’t ask the RBNZ to reduce rates outright, a lot of traders think that RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard might still be pressured to do so nonetheless.
We don’t have anything on tap from New Zealand today, so you may want to pay attention to market sentiment and see if there will be enough risk appetite for the Kiwi to pare some of its losses. Good luck!
It’s strike three for the Kiwi! NZD/USD fell for a third day in a row yesterday when the U.S. printed better-than-expected economic reports. The pair tipped to an intraday high of .7474 before calling it quits 17 pips lower than its open price at .7415.
Aside from positive reports in the U.S., the Kiwi might have been also weighed by the escalating rumors of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Apparently, the recent earthquakes in New Zealand could weigh economic growth figures, so the RBNZ is contemplating a possible interest rate cut to encourage spending and investment.
No reports are due today in the Land of the Maoris, but the U.S. has a chock full of potential big hitters. Among them is the big NFP report, which will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. The data usually inspires crazy volatility in markets, so keep your eyes glued to the tube!
While other major currencies have been enjoying gains over the Greenback, the Kiwi has been falling lower. NZD/USD found itself at .7384 by the end of the week, more than 100 pips lower from its week open price.
It seems that traders believe that the Christchurch earthquake could really weigh heavily on New Zealand’s economic recovery. I can’t really blame them though, rebuilding takes a lot of time, effort, and money.
Speaking of interest rates, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates at 8:00 pm GMT on Wednesday. The market expects the bank to interset rates to 2.75% from 3.00% in an attempt to help New Zealand get back on its feet after the earthquake.
Keep a close eye on the announcement, because if the RBNZ chooses NOT to raise rates, then we could see the Kiwi recuperate its losses and stage a nice relief rally.
For the first time since the Christchurch earthquake hit, NZD/USD managed to close out yesterday without a scratch! NZD/USD ended the day at .7367, barely changed from its opening price at .7362.
Is pessimism towards New Zealand’s economic future finally easing? Hah, I think it’s too early to tell, especially with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expected to cut rates on Thursday. It seems that traders have simply gone to “wait-and-see mode” as they await the actual results of the interest rate decision.
No economic data on the forex calendar today, so we could see NZD/USD move the same way it did yesterday. Keep a close eye on the previous day’s highs and lows… They could serve as potential inflection levels!
And that’s two in a row for the little guy! While the Greenback was clobbering its other pip counterparts yesterday, NZD/USD remained resilient and even ended the day on the green. The pair peaked at an intraday high of .7419 around the start of the London session before closing 25 pips higher than its open .7367 open price.
Was it because New Zealand’s visitor arrivals report came in better than expected? The data clocked in a 2.0% growth in January after only logging in a 1.4% increase in December. Apparently, tourists from both China and Australia pushed the figure by as much as 3% from its figure in January 2010!
While that’s great news though, the currency bulls had another reason for pushing the Kiwi higher in the charts. It seemed that many Kiwi bears decided to take their profits and just watch by the sidelines as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision today at 8:00 pm GMT.
While many market geeks are speculating on a rate cut, other naysayers are also saying that the RBNZ could also keep its rates on hold at 3.00% and just release dovish comments. In any case, keep your eyes peeled for the decision!
And the actual interest rate is…. 50 basis points lower! The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had its own “The Price is Right” act when it released its interest rate decision. Was this why the currency bears shouted “Come on down!” to the Kiwi? NZD/USD dropped to an intraday low of .9327 at the release of the report, but eventually ended the day only 15 pips lower than its open price.
Market bees have been buzzing about a possible interest rate cut since New Zealand was hit by a second earthquake in five months, but the RBNZ’s 50-basis point rate cut signaled that the economy might be hit harder than markets first thought.
In his statement, RBNZ Governor Allan Bollard said that the rate cut aims to lessen the impact of the quakes, and that growth is expected to be weak for the first half of the year. This doesn’t bode well for the economy since economic growth already printed in the red in the third quarter last year. If the fourth quarter GDP shows another contraction, the country will be officially in recession! Yikes!
Don’t worry, the markets will have plenty of time to process the recent news as only the food price index report is scheduled for release from New Zealand today at 9:45 pm GMT. Food prices already rose by 1.8% in January, but something tells me that the recent rocketing of commodity prices will take its toll on the data.
Good luck on your trades today!
It was a quiet day in New Zealand, but the Kiwi was anything but silent on the charts! Without any new reports to back it up in the past 24 hours, NZD/USD continued to free-fall, dropping 31 pips to close at .7346 at the end of the day.
Lookin’ back, it’s easy to see why the Kiwi retreated yesterday. The RBNZ’s surprising 0.50% interest rate cut is still fresh on everyone’s minds, and recent global developments have got everyone feeling jittery.
Aside from the commotion in the Middle East, European debt woes have come back to turn sentiment sour. Yesterday, Moody’s downgraded Spain’s debt rating, and to make matters worse, China posted an unexpected trade deficit-- a huge one, at that! Anyone else smell what I’m smelling? That ain’t Pipcrawler, guys, that stench is risk aversion!
Nothing on the calendar for New Zealand today, but do take note of the U.S.’s retail sales report if you’re planning to trade NZD/USD today. Momentum seems to be siding with the bears on this pair, but a downside surprise from this report may help the Kiwi recover some of its recent losses.
Ki-weee!!! No report was released from New Zealand, but the Kiwi took a ride up the charts last Friday on risk and dollar sentiment in markets. From an intraday low of .7327, NZD/USD ended the day 90 pips higher than its open price at .7436.
For today we can watch for the impact of the better-than-expected REINZ house price index on the Kiwi. The report released yesterday showed that house prices grew by 2.3% in February, which is a lot better than the 2.6% decline in house prices last January.
For the rest of the week only the Westpac consumer sentiment report on Wednesday is scheduled in New Zealand. The data popped a 108.3 index figure in the fourth quarter of 2010, but a higher number could push the Kiwi higher in the charts.
Since there are barely any reports coming out from New Zealand this week, watch risk sentiment closely! Remember that the high-yielding Kiwi usually takes a hit on risk aversion in markets.
So much for a rally! The Kiwi failed to sustain its gains against the Greenback yesterday when risk aversion in markets hit the high-yielding currencies like the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD dropped as soon as the day started and even fell to an intraday low of .7363 before ending the day 28 pips lower than its open price at .7394.
No reports are scheduled for release in New Zealand again today, but be sure to watch risk appetite flows closely. The combined pressure of unrest in the Middle East, global trade imbalances, and the earthquake in Japan are currently doing a number on high-yielding assets, but keep your eyes peeled for any surprises.
The legendary band Queen couldn’t have described the day for the Kiwi any better… Another one bites the dust! Just as its fellow comdolls did, the Kiwi fell victim to the risk aversion which swept the markets, causing NZD/USD to slide 76 pips down to .7318.
Risk off! With Japan’s economic future in question, traders have decided to call off risky plays for now and pool their money back into safe haven assets. As you know, the Kiwi usually takes a dive in times like this.
Though risk sentiment will probably continue to drive the markets today, you may wanna keep an eye out for New Zealand’s lone news release. The quarterly Westpac consumer sentiment report is due sometime today, and if it shows a big improvement from Q4 2010’s reading of 108.3, it could give the Kiwi a short break from all the bearishness.
Bada bing, bada boom! For the third day in a row, NZD/USD dropped down the charts, as risk aversion pushed higher yielding currencies off the edge. After opening at .7319, NZD/USD closed 40 pips to finish at .7279.
Looking at today’s candle, it looks like the Kiwi might just extend its losing streak to four! With all the crazy moves we’re seeing in the market (just look at yen pairs!), this doesn’t bode well for the Kiwi. As Japanese companies are scurrying around and deleveraging their positions in foreign assets, a higher yielding currency like the New Zealand dollar may continue to suffer.
The only report coming out from New Zealand is the Westpac consumer sentiment report, which is due at 9:00 pm GMT. Word is that consumer sentiment dropped over the past quarter, as the index is expected to print at 97.9, down from the 108.3 score the previous quarter. If this report comes in at an even worse figure, could we see yet another round of Kiwi selling?
Unlike other major currencies, the Kiwi was unable to post gains over the dollar yesterday as investor fears on Japan’s nuclear situation continued to linger. NZD/USD ended the U.S. trading session at .7179, a fall of 103 pips from its opening price during the Asian session.
But earlier today, the Kiwi was able to fight back, thanks to increased market optimism on the news that the G7 plans to have a coordinated response to the quake-tsunami calamity in Japan. NZD/USD is currently trading above .7250, more than 150 pips higher from its lowest level yesterday.
Whether the rally will last or not is still up in the air, so keep an ear open on any developments on the Japanese situation. If fear strikes the market again, expect the Kiwi to give back its gains!
FINALLY, the bulls have come back to the Kiwi! After four straight days of sliding down the charts, the Kiwi was able to salvage a win against the USD. Last Friday’s risk rally saw NZD/USD bounce off the .7200 handle to end with a 131-pip gain at .7310.
New Zealand may not have published any reports, but the G7 had the Kiwi’s back! Thanks to the G7 intervention, risk appetite improved late last week, leading to large gains for the Kiwi and other risk-sensitive currencies.
We’ve got critical data on tap this week. Tomorrow at 9:45 am GMT, we’ll see New Zealand’s most recent quarterly current account numbers. It’ll be interesting to see if the report can print an improvement from Q3 2010’s deficit of 1.77 billion NZD.
Then on Wednesday, Q4 2010 GDP data is set to come out at 9:45 pm GMT. Remember how New Zealand’s economy shrank by 0.2% in Q3? Well, analysts say negative growth is a definite possibility for Q4 as well. Judging by the way the unexpectedly cut interest rates by 0.50% a few weeks back, the RBNZ seems to agree with this possibility, too! Be on the lookout for a downside surprise, kids. Another negative reading would mean that New Zealand has officially hit another recession!
Now that’s what I call a one-two combo! The Kiwi followed up its strong rebound last Friday with another magnificent rally. With risk appetite and strong commodities fueling its strength, it put up a fight and was able to erase some of its recent losses. NZD/USD recorded a 45-pip rise and ended the day at .7357.
It’s a good thing risk appetite was healthy yesterday… otherwise, the Kiwi could’ve ended up on the losing side! News from New Zealand wasn’t quite supportive of the Kiwi. For one, we learned that credit card spending only rose 5.3% last month, a rate softer than the previous month’s 5.5% increase.
To make matters worse, the government announced that it’ll be tightening its belt soon! New Zealand plans to slash about 587 million USD from its May budget. Analysts are already saying that the economy may post a second straight quarter of contraction when it posts its GDP report later in the week. But if the government cuts its spending, could we see [B]three straight quarters[/B] [B]of GDP contraction[/B]???
Nothing to see from New Zealand today, but early tomorrow morning, it will be unveiling its latest current account figures. An improvement from Q3 2010’s 1.77 billion NZD deficit would help ease pressure on the Kiwi, but it may be hard to acquire such a figure, especially since the economy wasn’t exactly a star performer in Q4.
There’s just no stopping this little guy! The Kiwi bulls managed to clock in an additional 40 pips to their gains yesterday, pushing NZD/USD to its .7400 closing price. No wonder I keep on getting “Yippee for the Kiwi” shoutouts from Happy Pip!
Last night a report from New Zealand showed that the share of its current account deficit in the country’s GDP was at its smallest in 10 years. Apparently, local companies received a lot of moolahs from overseas reinsurance payments during the earthquake. The data only clocked in at 2.3% of New Zealand’s GDP for the fourth quarter last year while the deficit for the third quarter was also revised down to 2.2% from its 3.1% figure. Boo yeah!
Let’s see if the Kiwi can keep its momentum today when New Zealand’s fourth quarter GDP report is released at 9:45 pm GMT. As I mentioned early this week, markets will be keeping tabs on this one as a negative figure for this data will officially put the New Zealand economy in recession. Yikes!
New Zealand’s disappointing current account did nothing to move the Kiwi as traders were hesitant to get going ahead of New Zealand’s big GDP release. Rising commodity prices also helped keep the comdoll’s head above water as NZD/USD finished the day 6 pips higher at .7406.
New Zealand’s current account deficit failed to match the 2.13 billion forecasts as it expanded from 0.03 billion NZD to 3.52 billion NZD in Q4 2010. But on the bright side, the deficit as a percentage of GDP was actually at its smallest in 10 years as New Zealand’s foreign liabilities actually fell!
And as for the big news… NO RECESSION IN NEW ZEALAND! AWW YEAH! Many were anxious to see a negative figure, especially since New Zealand’s finance minister warned of the possibility. But the country was able to avoid a double-dip recession by recording a GDP growth of 0.2% in Q4, double the forecasted figure.
Forestry, manufacturing, and commercial building helped boost the economy late last year, and exports and investments picked up as well. But even though these give New Zealand reason to be optimistic for the year ahead, we can’t deny that the economy is still rather sluggish and will still be facing headwinds in its recovery.
Nothing more to see from the big NZ today, so in the meantime, keep tracking commodities and general risk sentiment!
Not two, not three… but FIVE! That’s how many consecutive days the Kiwi has been climbing up the charts! Coming off a better-than-expected GDP report, the Kiwi staged its strongest rally of the week with NZD/USD rising 85 pips to .7491.
New Zealand dodged a bullet with its GDP report yesterday! Forecasts had its economy expanding by 0.1%, but many believed there was plenty of potential for second straight quarter of contraction. The big NZ was able to narrowly escape falling into a double-dip recession by posting a GDP growth of 0.2% in Q4. Although Q4’s figures were bogged down by the earthquake, it still saw respectable growth in exports (2.1%) and investments (4.8%).
If you’re planning to trade NZD/USD again today, set your eyes to the west because ain’t nothin’ comin’ from New Zealand! Keep your eyes and ears open for U.S. reports, and be sure to keep risk sentiment in check!
Clean sweep baby! The Kiwi bucked overall dollar strength on Friday, completing its perfect week against the greenback. NZD/USD rose 36 pips to end the week at .7535. Will the Kiwi continue its magical run or will the streak becoming to an end soon?
No data was released from New Zealand, so we can probably attribute the Kiwi’s strength to the strong run in commodities, as well as bullishness in the Australian dollar.
Looking at our economic calendar today, I see that we’ve got trade balance data coming out tonight at 9:45 pm GMT. Expectations are that a surplus of 272 million NZD was made last month, which would be a major improvement over the 11 million NZD figure from the previous month. If the report comes in weaker than anticipated however, we might see the Kiwi’s run come to an end.
With no major data coming out yesterday, we saw tight trading on NZD/USD, which led to the pair posting its first loss in 7 days. NZD/USD closed six pips lower to finish the day at .7523. Could the bulls merely be taking a break or could this be the start of a beautiful reversal?
Late yesterday, trade balance was released and sadly, came in slightly disappointing. While the report did show another surplus of 194 million NZD, it failed to hit targets of 270 million NZD. I’ll be keeping an eye out on this figure in the coming months, as I’m curious to see whether or not the Christchurch earthquake will have a major effect or not on New Zealand’s trade industries.
Later today, building consents data will be released. Word is that building consents dropped by 1% in February, but I do think that this figure will pick up significantly in March thanks to reconstruction efforts.
I bet you didn’t see that coming! The Kiwi continued to muscle through the charts yesterday, forging a new one-month high against the USD. Traders took New Zealand’s smaller-than-expected trade surplus in stride, pushing NZD/USD to from .7523 to .7579.
Trade balance data didn’t exactly meet expectations yesterday, but that didn’t stop traders from buyin’ up the Kiwi! You see, according to February’s stats, New Zealand is officially back in the green. From a deficit of 3 million NZD, it was able to return its trade balance to a surplus of 194 million NZD. Exports rose 17% last month, mostly because of rising commodity prices.
Even though it fell short of the forecasted surplus of 238 million NZD, February’s results should be a cause for celebration because if not for the importation of two aircrafts, New Zealand’s surplus would have actually stood at 460 million NZD!
Sadly, building consents data hasn’t been as upbeat. Just a few hours ago, it was revealed that building approvals dropped 9.7% last month, after January’s 9.6% rise was downgraded to 9.1%. A double whammy if you ask me!
A good chunk of the sharp drop has been attributed to the earthquake that hit Canterbury towards the end of February. But since the building sector has been in a slump for a few months already, it’s difficult to say how much of the fall can be blamed solely on the earthquake.
That’s it for this day’s economic reports. For the rest of the day, be sure to keep an eye on commodities since it’s been providing the Kiwi with plenty of support as of late!