Daily Economic Commentary: Switzerland

It looks like Swissy bulls are getting a head start to the holiday celebrations! For the second day in a row, the Swissy beefed up against the dollar and euro. Despite disappointing trade balance data, USD/CHF fell 59 pips to land at .9590 while EUR/CHF dropped 106 pips to finish at 1.2559.

Yesterday’s trade balance data couldn’t stop the Swissy bulls’ onslaught even though it came in disappointingly. Forecasts were for a surplus of 1.98 billion CHF, but Switzerland’s trade surplus shrank more than expected when it fell from 2.05 billion CHF to 1.93 billion CHF last month.

Because of the Swissy’s recent strength, exports took a dive in November, and it seems Switzerland’s economy seems to have lost a bit of momentum… Of course, this is cause for concern for the central bank. Is it only a matter of time before we see the SNB intervene? Maybe!

If yesterday’s data was bad, why did the Swissy rise? Well, I have a very good feeling yesterday’s credit rating downgrade threat had something to do with it. Moody’s warned that it may cut Portugal’s credit rating, causing safe haven currencies like the Swissy to gain in value.

Nothing more to see from Switzerland again today. But the U.S. is scheduled to publish a few hard-hitters after a two-day hiatus. You might want to check those out since they may cause a change in risk sentiment. Remember, risk aversion is the Swissy’s friend!

Despite the lack of economic data, the Swissy was still able to get traders singing, “Oh Swissy! You’re so fine, you blow my mind!” EUR/CHF tapped a new all-time low at 1.2439 before finally closing the day at 1.2467, while USD/CHF closed 71 pips lower at .9519. Whaddup!

Continued worries over Euro zone’s sovereign crisis coupled with disappointing data from the U.S. highlighted the currency’s safe-haven status. But with our economic calendar still blank for reports from Switzerland, can the Swissy get lucky with traders for a second day in a row?

Hmmm, I think we’re gonna have to gauge market sentiment to see. Good luck and happy trading!

With the Swissy tapping a fresh high against the dollar at .9309, it isn’t much of a surprise that yabba-dabba-doo’s resounded in the market as 2010 came to a close. EUR/CHF was also chillin’ at its all-time lows but it ended the year with the Swissy sustaining a 56-pip loss at 1.2485.

Profit-taking was the reason behind the currency’s mixed scorecard for the year’s last trading day. And with our economic calendar indicating that we only have a couple of reports on tap this week, we may see more of the same performance from the Swissy.

Today at 8:30 am GMT, the manufacturing PMI for December will be released. The consensus is for a modest decrease to 61.5 from November’s 61.8 reading. Then on Thursday at 8:15 am GMT, we have the CPI report and analysts are bracing for a 0.2% decline in consumer prices after seeing inflation pick up in November.

If you’re planning to show the Swissy some love, keep your fingers crossed for better-than-expected figures as these may help the currency rally. Good luck!

Despite disappointing SVME PMI figures, USD/CHF found itself being all-around boring as it just ping-ponged around its session highs and lows. USD/CHF ended the day at .9344, 3 pips lower than its opening price that day. Basically, the daily candle of USD/CHF managed to form a nice little “doji.”

No data coming out of Switzerland today, so news from other major economies will be the ones to provide direction and volatility for the Swissy. Oh, and pay special attention to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 7:00 pm GMT later!

Ouch! The Swissy was clobbered by the Greenback in yesterday’s trading, allowing USD/CHF to pull up from its dive. The pair opened at .9344, climbed to a high of .9518, before it closed at .9489.

Switzerland didn’t release any economic reports yesterday, leaving USD/CHF at the mercy of risk sentiment and U.S. economic data. And when Uncle Sam continued to churn out stronger than expected figures, demand for the U.S. dollar outweighed that of the Swiss franc.

Today, Switzerland’s economic schedule is empty once again, which means that USD/CHF’s movement could be directed by U.S. reports. Note that the ADP non-farm employment change, which is usually considered a preview of the non-farm payrolls report, is due today. Better than expected figures from the U.S. labor market could provide another boost for USD/CHF.

It must’ve been a total bummer for the Swissy that traders didn’t find it as sweet as Swiss chocolates yesterday. It lost 171 pips to the dollar when USD/CHF closed at .9660. Against the euro, it gave up 91 pips when the pair ended the day at 1.2708.

We didn’t hear any economic yodel from Switzerland yesterday so perhaps the CPI report for December, due later at 8:15 am GMT, will give traders enough reason to crave for the Swissy.

Analysts are expecting it to show that inflation pressures declined by 0.1% during the month. Keep your fingers crossed for the actual figure to come in higher than what is anticipated if you plan on rooting for the currency. Good luck!

Brace yourselves, brothas, here comes another one! The franc ended its losing streak against the dollar and the euro yesterday despite printing a cooler-than-expected CPI report. USD/CHF capped the day with an 8-pip loss, while EUR/CHF plunged by 145 pips to 1.2551.

It looks like Switzerland will be joining all the employment report party in the markets today since the country’s unemployment rate is also scheduled today at 6:45 am GMT. The figure isn’t expected to move from 3.6%, but don’t let any surprise catch you!

The franc’s price action was as mixed as the colors of M&Ms when it traded lower against the Greenback, but higher against the euro. EUR/CHF plummeted by 74 pips to 1.2484, while USD/CHF ended the day 23 pips higher than its open price after dropping to an intraday low of .9606.

Switzerland’s employment numbers released last Friday revealed a decrease of 6,968 workers even though the unemployment rate held its 3.6% figure in December. It might be a small number compared to the other economies, but any trouble in the employment figures could make many of the currency bulls jumpy.

Maybe we can get a clear shot on Switzerland’s economy today when the retail sales report is released at 8:15 am GMT. Retail sales is estimated to slow down to a 2.2% growth in November after clocking in a 3.5% growth in October.

The producer price index report is also slated for release on Friday at 8:15 am GMT, and a figure better than last November’s 0.2% decline might push the franc higher in the pip charts.

Stick around for these reports, homies!

The Swissy shed pips during yesterday’s trading despite a positive retail salesreport. EUR/CHF closed 58 pips higher from its opening price at 1.2531. Boo! On the other hand, it only managed to end the day 9 pips higher against the dollar at .9673.

In November 2010, consumer spending was 2.5% higher than it was a year before. Analysts had only predicted a 2.2% year-on-year growth. Oh Swissy, sometimes good data just ain’t enough!

Word on the street is that a breath of good news from the euro zone might have caused the Swissy’s loss yesterday. So without any economic data on tap until Friday, when the PPI report September is released, you may also want to keep tabs on what’s going on with the Swissy’s counterparts.

Good luck!

Looks like the franc bulls aren’t ready to show some love yet! The franc continued to lose against its major counterparts yesterday despite the lack or reports from Switzerland. USD/CHF gained by another 59 pips yesterday, and even reached an intraday high of .9784. EUR/CHF also ended the day on the green at 1.2641.

No economic report is scheduled for release again today, but Swiss National Bank Vice-Chairman Thomas Jordan is scheduled to give a speech in Reichnau. Also keep close tabs on risk sentiment today, as global economic worries could affect the demand for the low-yielding franc.

The lack of economic reports from Switzerland left the franc’s price action as mixed as my momma’s chili against its major pip brothas. EUR/CHF rose for the third day in a row at 1.2692, while USD/CHF hit an intraday high of .9757 before ending the day 69 pips lower than its open price.

Only Swiss National Bank Vice President Thomas Jordan took the spotlight in the country yesterday. In his speech in Reichenau, he echoed the SNB’s concerns of the franc’s rapid appreciation against the euro. You see, an expensive currency could weigh on the country’s consumers, and could affect the economy’s growth.

No other economic highlight will come from Switzerland today, but keep close tabs on risk sentiment in markets! Any dramatic change in risk appetite usually affects the low-yielding franc.

Hep hep Hooray! Apparently, the success of the Spanish and Italian government bond auctions yesterday that propped up the euro also proved to be beneficial for the Swissy. USD/CHF ended the day at .9648, 16 pips lower from its opening price.

No data from Switzerland yesterday, but we’ll be seeing the country’s producer price index (PPI) at 8:15 pm GMT later. The forecast is a rise of 0.2%, opposite the 0.2% decline seen last month.

The PPI release will probably have little effect on the Swissy’s price action, so focus on the reports coming out in the U.S. instead. Specifically, keep a close eye on the results of the retail sales report, CPI, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

USD/CHF was one of the quiet ones last Friday as it found itself pacing back and forth within a tight 80-pip range. The pair ended the day .9644, a mere 4 pips lower from its opening price during the Asian trading session.

The only data that came out of Switzerland last Friday was the producer price index (PPI). It printed a rise of 0.3%, better than the 0.2% increase initially expected and opposite the 0.2% fall from the previous month. Despite the unexpected gain, the report was mostly unnoticed by traders.

Switzerland’s economic calendar has very little to offer us this week as there are no major reports due. This means that USD/CHF’s price action will mostly be driven by data coming from other major economies, particularly those from the U.S.

With no data coming out from Switzerland, and the U.S. market celebrating Martin Luther King’s day yesterday, the franc’s price action is as mixed as a bag of nuts. EUR/CHF plunged by 78 pips on a bit of risk aversion, but USD/CHF also inched up by 51 pips.

No data is scheduled for release again today, but keep close tabs on the rackets going on in the Euro Zone. Word around the forex streets is that finance ministers from the region are huddling today to reach an agreement over the size of the EFSF that could help the troubled euro zone economies.

If the group fails to reach any solid decision, then we just might see the currency bulls flock the low-yielding currencies like the franc!

It seems like the Swissy has been taking lessons from Forex Ninja… It was stealthy as heck yesterday! Despite a very quiet day from Switzerland, it managed to creep higher against its American counterpart. USD/CHF reached an intraday low of .9552 before it finished at .9638 to record a 15-pip slide.

It didn’t need any support domestically to stage a rally. It joined the rest of the major currencies that strengthened against the dollar, in spite of positive U.S. data!

Today looks like it’ll be another quiet day in Switzerland with no economic data on tap. But we all know the Swissy can be silent but deadly, so be sure to be on guard for any developments in the U.S.! Disappointing results on its part could cause USD/CHF to drop like a rock.

Yeaaah boy! Score another one for the stealthy Swissy! In spite of the U.S.’s awesome building permits data, the Swissy was able to have its way with the dollar for the second day in a row. As a result, USD/CHF was finally able to close below .9600, finishing at .9550 to post an 87-pip slide.

Action on USD/CHF the past couple of days has mostly been dictated by the market’s sentiment towards the dollar, but Switzerland could flip the script today. It’ll finally be breaking the silence with a couple of noteworthy events later on.

First on the agenda is the release of the January ZEW economic expectations report, a tier 2 report, at 10:00 am GMT. Let’s see if an improvement from last month’s reading of -12.5 can rile up Swissy bulls even more.

After that, let’s check out what SNB top dog Philipp Hildebrand has to say when he takes the mic at 5:00 pm GMT. He’s supposed to spit out some sick rhymes about “The Swiss National Bank and the Financial Crisis.” I wouldn’t miss his act if I were you! Whatever he has to say could give us an idea of how the boys of the SNB see the current economic situation and what they plan to do in the future.

Ooomph! The franc lost a lot of its glitter against its major counterparts yesterday on not-so-awesome economic reports from Switzerland and risk aversion in markets. USD/CHF zoomed by 123 pips to .9673, while EUR/CHF soared to 1.3032, 166 above its open price.

ZEW economic expectations in Switzerland fell to -18.4 in January after it printed at -12.5 in December. This suggested that investors are a lot less optimistic on the economy. The report presented a stark contrast to the U.S., which posted positive results.

Let’s see if Swiss National Bank Chairman Philipp Hildebrand can steer the love back to the franc today when he makes his speech at 5:00 pm GMT in Zurich. Markets usually tune in to the heads of central banks, so don’t even think of missing this one!

Taking advantage of dollar weakness, the Swissy was able to recover some of its losses from the previous day, posting an 89 pip win versus the dollar to close at .9584. However, the franc bulls had no luck against the euro, as EUR/CHF edged 15 pips higher to end the week at 1.3048.

We could be in for a slow week in franc trading, as no red flags are going to be raised till Friday, when the KOF economic barometer report is released. Still, that doesn’t mean you should just take the week off and eat some cheese and drink some wine. Make sure you’ve got our economic calendar bookmarked, as you never know what report may rock the markets!

With no data from either side of the equation, bullish momentum carried the Swissy higher against its American counterpart. The broad dollar selloff saw USD/CHF continue its downtrend, falling another 103 pips to close at .9488.

We’ll get our first taste of Swiss data today at 7:00 am GMT, when the UBS consumption indicator comes out. The report was designed to gauge future consumer spending based, so it’s definitely worth taking a look at. Let’s see if we can get another bull run going with a reading higher than November’s 1.63.

The success of the first EFSF bond auction yesterday helped the Swissy gain over the Greenback yesterday. USD/CHF was trading at .9432 by the end of the U.S. trading session, more than 50 pips lower from its opening price.

The UBS consumption indicator also helped prop up demand for the Swissy. It came in with a reading of 1.84, significantly higher than the previous reading of 1.64.

Switzerland’s economic cupboard has nothing in store for us today, so keep an eye out on data coming from other major economies, particularly FOMC’s interest rate decision, to determine where the Swissy is headed.