USD/CHF may have gapped higher over the weekend but the pair is still stuck in consolidation around the .9225 area. Will we see a breakout any time this week? And which way can it go?
The lack of major reports from Switzerland and traders’ anxiety prior to the G20 Summit kept USD/CHF in a tight range last Friday. Not even the U.S. consumer sentiment figure, which came in stronger than expected, was able to trigger a breakout either way.
Only the ZEW economic expectations figure is due from Switzerland this week and the report is set for release on Wednesday, which suggests that we might not see any strong moves from the Swissy until then. After climbing from -15.5 to -6.9 last December, another improvement for January could trigger franc buying, which would push USD/CHF to break below its tight range.
Looks like the Swissy still hasn’t recovered from its weekend hangover! It barely budged in yesterday’s trading, as USD/CHF finished just 8 pips higher while EUR/CHF inched 13 pips higher.
That the Swissy didn’t move wasn’t all too surprising considering that the Switzerland didn’t have any reports on tap and U.S. bankers were out celebrating Presidents’ Day.
But hopefully, the Swissy will come back to life today with help from SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s speech at 5:15 am GMT. This event is particularly interesting because the central bank top dog is set to deliver a speech entitled “Strong franc and high current account surplus: a contradiction?”
What y’all should keep an eye out for are clues about future intervention. For instance, if Jordan expresses discomfort about the franc’s current levels, it could be a sign that the SNB has plans to devalue the franc even further.
Pretty quiet day for the Swissy, as it pretty much stuck within its daily range. USD/CHF eventually closed the day just 5 pips below its opening price, finishing at .9231.
As it turns out, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s speech turned out to be a non-event, although Jordan did have some interesting comments about why the central bank is implementing its EUR/CHF peg. He basically said that current account figures are overrated and that the peg was necessary due to Switzerland’s importance in international financial markets.
Furthermore, Jordan added that given the current situation, that the EUR/CHF peg was the most appropriate monetary policy strategy to implement at this time. I guess we won’t be seeing EUR/CHF dip below 1.2000 any time soon!
For today, we’ve got the ZEW economic expectations report headed our way at 10:00 am GMT. The report printed a reading of -6.9 last month, so if we see a figure higher than that today, it could give the franc a slight boost up the charts.
You win some, you lose some! The Swissy learned that lesson the hard way as it gained 30 pips against the euro but lost 50 pips to the dollar. Which way will it go today?
It looks like people are learning to look on the bright side of things in Switzerland! According to the ZEW economic expectations report (which printed positive for the first time since April 2012), our Swiss homies are becoming more optimistic! The index rose from -6.9 to 10.0 in January.
Today, we have trade balance data on tap, and survey says that the Swiss trade surplus will widen from .90 billion to 1.75 billion CHF. Though I wouldn’t expect a wild reaction to this report, it’s worth noting because the state of the Swiss exports industry could affect the SNB’s view on the Swissy.
Tough luck for the franc yesterday! With the dollar on a roll, USD/CHF rose another 38 pips to close at .9318. Will we see a Friday comeback or is the Swiss franc headed for three losses in a row?
The franc took a hit despite good trade balance figures, which indicated that the country posted a surplus of 2.13 billion CHF last month, which was both an improvement from last month’s figure of 900 million CHF, and better than the anticipated 1.74 billion CHF figure.
Instead, the markets focused on the poor euro zone PMIs, and the franc followed the euro’s lead.
Looking at our economic calendar, looks like we have nothing on tap, so we may see some consolidation to end the week.
The Swiss franc merely traded within its range against the dollar on Friday. Boring! USD/CHF bounced off support around Thursday’s low at .9290 and got rejected at resistance around .9330. By the end of the New York session, the pair settled at .9307, 12 pips below its opening price.
No economic data is due from Switzerland today. However, the much-anticipated Italian elections will be on tap. Given the close proximity of the country to the euro zone, the outcome of the elections could also have an impact on the Swiss franc. Make sure you keep an ear out for it, ayt? I have a feeling that if Silvio Berlusconi comes back to power, we would see a sell-off in the euro and the franc.
With a sudden surge of risk aversion hitting the markets, the franc followed the euro’s lead, as it took a hit versus the Greenback. After hitting an intraday low at .9231, USD/CHF eventually ended the day at .9306, up 21 pips from its opening price.
With the surprise results of the initial returns of the Italian election, we saw a huge wave of risk aversion sweep the markets, allowing USD/CHF to climb higher. Make sure you read up on my EUR commentary for the details of what’s happening over in Italy!
For today, all we’ve got coming out from Switzerland is employment data, which is due at 8:15 am GMT. Employment is seen to have ticked lower from 4.12M to 4.11M, but I don’t see this affecting Swissy trading too much. Instead, keep an eye on the euro zone, as this will most likely dictate sentiment for the rest of the week.
Boring! The franc spent most of yesterday’s trading chillin’ like ice cream fillin’ around .9300 against the dollar. By the New York session close, USD/CHF held steady at .9321, up from its opening price at .9306.
It was reported that the employment level in Switzerland was still steady at 4.12 million in Q4 2012, just the same as it was in Q3 2012.
Don’t fret though! Today, at 8:00 am GMT, the KOF economic barometer will be on tap. A 1.00 reading is expected to signify that economic conditions are pretty much the same in February as they were in January. However, if you’re looking for some action on the franc, a better-than-expected reading could help boost the currency, so watch out!
Up and down USD/CHF had gone, but when the day was over, the pair ended up where it had begun! The pair, which had started the day at .9321, closed the U.S. trading session barely changed at .9313.
USD/CHF lacked direction due to the absence of an economy catalyst. The two reports released that day, the UBS Consumption Indicator and the KOF Economic Barometer, mostly came in line with market forecast. The UBS Consumption Indicator fell to 1.18 from 1.32 while the KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.03, slightly higher than the 1.00 reading the market had initially expected.
Today could be a big day for the Swissy as Switzerland’s GDP report for Q4 2012 will come out. It’s going to publish at 6:465 pm GMT and it is expected to show that the economy neither grew nor contracted for the quarter. Since it’s considered as the broadest measure of economic activity, traders will be watching it closely to gauge the health of Switzerland’s economy.
The Swissy received mixed reviews during yesterday’s trading as it managed to outperform the euro but lagged against the Greenback. USD/CHF popped higher to the .9360 area while EUR/CHF dropped like a rock and fell to the 1.2200 mark.
Switzerland’s quarterly GDP beat expectations for Q4 2012 as the figure showed a 0.2% expansion, better than the expected flat reading. Although the actual figure is slightly weaker than the 0.6% growth seen in the previous quarter, the Swissy had a positive initial reaction to the release. However, strong U.S. data and weak euro zone sentiment soon had a bigger effect on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF.
Only the SVME PMI is due from Switzerland today and the report could show a dip from 52.5 to 52.2, reflecting a slower expansion in the manufacturing sector. If the actual figure comes in stronger than expected though, we could see a rebound in the Swissy. Keep an eye out for the actual release at 8:30 am GMT.
Bring on the pain! The Swiss franc extended its decline last Friday as the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index came in worse than expected. USD/CHF, which started out the day at .9370, had climbed as high as .9464 before it finished the U.S. trading session at .9437.
The SVME PMI failed to meet consensus and printed a reading of 50.8, slightly lower than the 52.2 forecast. It also decreased from the previous month’s reading of 52.5.
Switzerland’s calendar has a bit of red flags this week. On Thursday, the report on the Swiss National bank (SNB)'s foreign currency reserves will be released. Since the report gives insight into the SNB’s currency market operations, such as how actively it is defending the franc’s exchange rate against the euro, it tends to be closely watched by market participants.
SNB Chairman Jordan will also be doing a speech about the status of the central bank in Zurich. Given how the Swiss franc has been losing in the past few weeks, he could start changing his stance towards currency intervention.
On Friday, expect to see Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index. It is projected to show that the average price of goods and services fell 0.3% in February, the same amount it declined in January. Let’s see if the negative expectations will be detrimental for the Swiss franc this week.
With no reports out from Switzerland, the franc’s price action was dictated by its counterparts. It gained on the Greenback and the euro, but lost to the pound. Here’s why.
Appetite for some high-yielding currencies dragged the dollar lower, which weighed on USD/CHF. The euro wasn’t part of the risk appetite train though, as it fell against its counterparts and dragged EUR/CHF lower. Meanwhile, a strong intraday recovery influenced GBP/CHF to end the day a few pips higher.
Switzerland won’t be releasing reports today, we’ll most likely see the franc trade on its counterparts’ price action again. Keep an eye out for the big interest rate decisions coming our way this week!
Was Gordon Ramsey behind USD/CHF’s price action yesterday? Because it looked like it was chopped up by a professional chef! USD/CHF moved like it was on a see-saw: it opened at .9411, fell to .9393, rose to .9435, and then dropped back down again to .9419!
The lack of data from Switzerland and the ever-shifting market sentiment were the main culprits behind USD/CHF’s choppy price action. In Europe, there is a lot of political uncertainty surrounding Italy’s next leadership, but in the U.S., the Dow Jones closed at an all-time high. Market participants seem to be confused, as they’re receiving both good and bad news at the same time.
Nothing on the data cupboard today for Switzerland so we could see USD/CHF trade choppily again.
The franc continued to feel pain from the markets yesterday as USD/CHF and EUR/CHF both continued their journey up the charts. But with no data out from Switzerland, you really shouldn’t be surprised that the franc traded on its counterparts’ price action.
The franc might have a shot at dictating its own movements today when Switzerland prints its unemployment rate at 7:45 am GMT, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB)’s foreign currency reserves at 9:00 am GMT.
Last but not the least is a speech by SNB head Thomas Jordan at 10:00 am GMT. Remember that Jordan reiterated the SNB’s commitment to cap the franc’s gains in its last speech, which caused the franc to plop against its counterparts. Will that be the case again today? Stick around and find out!
Woah, what a selloff! After consolidating near .9500, USD/CHF crashed to a low of .9410 then moved sideways around the .9400 area during the U.S. session. What the heck happened?
Switzerland’s foreign currency reserves came in at 427.7 billion CHF for February, roughly 75% of its GDP, as the Swiss National Bank spent an additional 188 billion CHF to keep its franc peg. That’s ten times the amount it spent last year!
These figures prompted market participants to worry that the SNB will no longer be able to afford its currency peg later on, triggering a sudden Swissy selloff. However, SNB head Thomas Jordan kept mum about the central bank’s future plans regarding the currency.
Only the Swiss CPI is set for release from Switzerland today and this report isn’t likely to have a huge impact on franc pairs, although the report is expected to show another 0.3% decline in price levels. The bigger event risk for USD/CHF today is the U.S. NFP report due 1:30 pm GMT. Stay on your toes!
Like the other major currencies, the franc got clobbered by its counterparts in the aftermath of the U.S. NFP data. USD/CHF shot up by 88 pips while EUR/CHF also experienced a 14-pip uptick.
It might have helped the franc bears that Switzerland’s CPI report showed that consumer prices rose by 0.3% in February, which is faster than the 0.3% decline that we saw in January. As I mentioned last week, a few traders are starting to bet that the SNB is running out of ammo in protecting its currency. But with inflation turning hotter for Switzerland, the central bank might have to step up its game.
But we’ll cross the bridge when we get there. Today we can focus on Switzerland’s retail sales data due at 9:15 am GMT. The report is expected to show only a 3.7% gain in January, which would be much lower than the 5.1% growth that we saw in December. Keep your eyes peeled for this one, will ya?
Take that, Greenback! The Swiss franc regained ground against the U.S. dollar on Monday as USD/CHF slid from above the .9510 area to a low of .9466. The Swissy also managed to score some gains against the euro as EUR/CHF tested the 1.2350 level.
Switzerland’s retail sales figure came in weaker than expected for January as the report showed a mere 1.9% annualized increase instead of the estimated 3.7% growth. Even worse, the previous month’s figure was revised down from 5.1% to 4.7%, showing that consumer spending was slower than initially reported.
There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that USD/CHF and EUR/CHF could move to the tune of U.S. and euro zone data. Stay on your toes!
Look who’s starting to flex his muscles - the Swiss franc! For the second day in a row, it chalked up wins against its two major counterparts, snatching 9 pips from the dollar and 16 pips from the euro. Will it extend its gains today?
Maybe! But don’t count on Swiss reports to serve as a catalyst for big moves because Switzerland won’t be publishing any today. That said, Swiss franc action might be influenced by today’s U.S. retail sales reports, which usually get a bit of market interest.
Also, bear in mind that the SNB will be holding its quarterly monetary policy assessment tomorrow, so today’s action on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF may reflect market expectations for the big announcement as well.
After a bit of consolidation during the Asian and London sessions, USD/CHF broke to the upside and rallied up to the .9520 area later on. EUR/CHF, on the other hand, tumbled to a low of 1.2306 before recovering to 1.2350.
The lack of economic data from Switzerland left the Swiss franc mostly directionless during yesterday’s trading. USD/CHF’s strong rally was caused by stronger than expected U.S. retail sales data while EUR/CHF’s drop was a result of general euro zone economic weakness.
Today could be a different story though as the SNB is scheduled to make its monetary policy decision. As Forex Gump noted in his article about what to expect for the rate statement, the Swiss central bank is currently caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to deciding what to do about its monetary policy and exchange rate goals. Do keep an eye out for the actual statement at 9:30 am GMT!
The SNB monetary policy assessment sparked fireworks in the markets as USD/CHF completely erased Wednesday’s gains by posting a 59-pip loss and ending at .9468. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF traded 30 pips lower to end the day at 1.2314.
No changes were made to monetary policy and the SNB maintained its cap on the Swiss franc, but the markets still decided to buy up the currency. It seems traders were unfazed even though the central bank reiterated that it’s ready and willing to buy up unlimited amounts of foreign currency to keep the franc from rising and compromising price stability.
As for its economic outlook, the SNB cut its inflation forecasts to reflect a 0.2% decline in prices for 2013, which only tells us that deflationary problems are still haunting Switzerland. Meanwhile, its growth forecasts remained unchanged from December, with the economy expected to expand between 1% to 1.5% this year.
Nothing on tap from Switzerland today, but do keep tabs on the EU summit and the U.S. consumer sentiment report if you plan on trading EUR/CHF or USD/CHF today.