Daily Economic Commentary: Switzerland

With no biggies on tap, USD/CHF trading pretty much stuck within its average daily trading range, as it finished around .9634, down just a few pips from its opening price.

Today at 7:15 am GMT, the retail sales report will be released. Expectations are that year-on-year sales growth will clock in at 3.7%, slightly better than the 3.3% we saw the month before. Another positive figure would mark the 12[SUP]th[/SUP] time in the last 13 months that retail sales has grown, which is indicative of stronger consumer spending in Switzerland.

Good luck to all of you trading the Swissy today!

Tuesday was NOT a good day for the franc as it fell against the Greenback and the euro. USD/CHF popped up by another 93 pips while EUR/CHF also inched 35 pips higher. What the heck happened?

Switzerland might have printed an economic report yesterday, but based on the price action I would say that the franc traders had paid more attention to the price action of its counterparts. Expectations of a stronger dollar lifted USD/CHF, while a resolution on Greece’s latest bailout woes boosted EUR/CHF early in the day.

Will the franc get any chance to take back some pips today? It looks like we’ll have to depend on the other major currencies for direction on the franc’s trading because Switzerland’s data cupboard will be empty for the rest of the week. Don’t forget to check out an economic calendar for possible trade opportunities!

It’s time for revenge! The Swiss franc may have lost a lot of ground against the dollar in the past trading days, but yesterday’s price action was enough to erase most of those losses. USD/CHF fell by more than 300 pips as it slid from the .9750 area to a low of .9406.

There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday, as USD/CHF’s tumble was mostly a result of dollar weakness. This was spurred by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed that plenty of policymakers are still not convinced that the Fed should taper by the end of the year.

There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that the movement of franc pairs could depend on the Swissy’s counterparts. Take note that the U.S. will be releasing its initial jobless claims today while euro zone is set to release the ECB monthly bulletin.

Ka-chow! The Swiss franc took advantage of overall dollar weakness, as it simply trampled all over Uncle Sam’s home currency. USD/CHF dropped 219 pips to finish the day at .9460, its lowest level since early last week.

It should be interesting to see whether dollar selling will dominate the market place. If it does, we can probably expect USD/CHF to continue its downtrend for this week. On the flip side, if the dollar bulls see this as an opportunity to buy low, we could see USD/CHF rally higher.

USD/CHF traded in an almost perfect reverse “U” pattern last Friday as it gained heavily during the Asian session but faltered and returned to where it had begun during the U.S. trading session. The pair opened at .9461 and closed Friday barely changed .9459.

This week will be a very light week in terms of data for the Swissy as no red flags could be found in Switzerland’s economic calendar. Nevertheless, there are a couple of tier 2 data that could produce some volatility.

Today, at 7:15 am GMT, the country’s Producer Price Index will be published. It’s anticipated to show a 0.3% rise, opposite the 0.3% decline seen the month before.

Then on Wednesday, at 9:00 am GMT, prepare yourself for the release of the ZEW Economic Expectations survey. Last month, the survey printed a reading of 2.2. Let’s see if the survey can come in higher and provide a boost to the Swissy.

Though the Swissy slid by a few pips against its major counterparts, there wasn’t really much action on the Swissy pairs. EUR/CHF finished at 1.2386, just 18 pips above its opening price, while USD/CHF ended the day 19 pips higher at .9478.

Yesterday’s lone Swiss report, the producer price index, did little to provide the Swissy with support. It posted a 0.1% increase in prices, which isn’t all too impressive considering that the previous month posted a 0.3% decline and most were expecting to see a 0.3% rebound.

Unfortunately, we won’t be getting any more reports from Switzerland until tomorrow. 'Til then, I suggest y’all check out our economic calendar for releases from the euro zone and the U.S.!

What a coup! Switzerland didn’t release any economic report yesterday, but individual concerns for the other currencies pushed the low-yielding franc higher against its counterparts.

USD/CHF might have weakened on overall dollar weakness as well as profit-taking ahead of Bernanke’s statement due at 2:00 pm GMT. Meanwhile, worse-than-expected data from the euro zone weighed a bit on EUR/CHF.

At 9:00 am GMT we’ll see Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations data. Be careful though, as it might be overshadowed by other big events in the region such as the MPC minutes and employment numbers release from the U.K.!

The Swissy stayed within range yesterday, as the reaction to Bernanke’s speech was pretty much muted. USD/CHF traded within a range of roughly 80 pips and finished trading at .9410, about 21 pips above its opening price.

With Bernanke pretty much not saying anything different during his semi-annual update on monetary policy, it’s not surprisingly that USD/CHF trading was muted. Not even a slight improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment report (2.2 to 4.8) could cause a ruckus in the markets.

With nothing lined up for the rest of the week, we can probably expect more of the same type of trading.

Better-than-expected trade data? Meh. The franc was dragged across the mud against the dollar and the euro yesterday despite the release of positive Swiss data. What the heck brought that on?!

As I mentioned in my USD update, better-than-expected reports from Uncle Sam boosted the Greenback across the board. Heck, the franc didn’t even stand a chance! Meanwhile, the euro also showed decent gains against its counterparts even though there wasn’t much positive vibes from the euro region’s economic data.

Will today be the day when franc traders remember that Switzerland’s trade surplus is at 2.73 billion CHF, higher than June’s 2.12 billion CHF surplus in May? We won’t be seeing any news report from Roger Federer’s home town, so be at the edge of your seats for any news event that might sway the price action of the low-yielding franc!

The franc flexed its muscles like a boss against the dollar in Friday’s trading. USD/CHF traded lower, bouncing off resistance at the .9450 minor psychological handle, to finish the day 42 pips below its opening price.

No reports were released from the U.S. and Switzerland. Luckily for the franc, risk appetite picked up a bit and allowed it to pare some of the losses it incurred on Wednesday’s trading.

Will the franc get lucky in today’s trading too? No reports are due from Switzerland. However, if risk appetite picks up once again, we could see USD/CHF trade even lower!

It looks like the franc is off to a good start! The currency started this week with a win against the dollar. USD/CHF opened at .9406 and finished the New York session lower at .9360. So, what moved the franc?

There weren’t any economic data released from Switzerland. If you ask me, it would seem that we saw a bit of risk appetite following the U.S. housing report release which helped boost the franc against the dollar.

No reports for the currency are due today. With that said, it may be a good idea to keep tabs on market sentiment. Who knows, risk appetite may just help the franc extend its gains once more!

After stumbling early on, the Swiss franc made a nice comeback late in the day to edge higher versus the dollar. USD/CHF finished at .9349, down 15 pips on the day after it had traded as high as .9407.

The major news to watch out for today will be the euro zone PMIs that will be released at the start of the London session. Most of them are projected to come in below the 50.0 mark, indicating contraction in the euro zone region. Should them come in even worse than expected, we could see a sell-off in EUR/USD, which may indirectly boost USD/CHF.

The franc gave back some of its gains from earlier this week yesterday, as USD/CHF finished 29 pips higher at .9377.

Pretty interesting to see the franc take a hit yesterday, despite the fact that EUR/USD traded higher. This just goes to show that correlations between higher yielding currencies just ain’t as strong as they used to be, homies!

Nothing lined up today, so we may see some tight trading. Good luck trading my young padawans!

The franc looked so darn fine like a rich, dark, moist chocolate cake after a hard day. It rallied strongly against the dollar, finishing with an 86-pip gain as USD/CHF closed at .9292.

No reports were released from Switzerland yesterday. Luckily for the franc, data that came out of the U.S. missed expectations which allowed it to extend its gains.

Today our forex calendar is still blank for reports for the currency. With that said, make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment. Keep in mind that it tends to do well against the dollar when risk appetite is up!

After its sharp dive earlier in the week, USD/CHF took a break and consolidated below the .9300 major psychological level on Friday. Which way could USD/CHF go today?

There were no reports released from Switzerland on Friday, which explains why USD/CHF was stuck in consolidation. For today, Switzerland’s schedule is still empty so we could see another round of sideways movement for the pair. Take note, however, that the U.S. will be printing its pending home sales report during the New York session and that this might result in some volatility for USD/CHF.

Keep an eye out for medium-tier releases from Switzerland for the rest of the week, as these could push franc pairs in a strong direction. The KOF economic barometer and UBS consumption indicator are due Wednesday while the SVME PMI will be released on Friday. Stay on your toes!

Monday turned out to be a painful day for the Swiss franc as it was unable to hold its ground versus the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF pair began the day at .9283 but ended the U.S. trading session 23 pips higher at .9306.

No major data was released from Switzerland yesterday, so USD/CHF’s move up could simply be a retracement as traders take profit on the pair’s recent downtrend. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see whether the bulls will be able to sustain the rally today to confirm the move.

Don’t hold your breath and expect a lot of volatility though. Switzerland’s economic calendar is pretty bare today. Unless there’s a surprise catalyst, there is very little reason for the Swissy to move.

Just like Batman, you know you can count on the low-yielding currencies in times of fear and uncertainty. Thanks to positioning ahead of the major monetary policy announcements this week, the franc edged higher against the dollar and the euro.

We didn’t see anything from Roger Federer’s home land yesterday, but, as I mentioned in my other updates, traders were careful not to buy high-yielding currencies ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.

Let’s see if the franc will extend its gains today. At 6:00 am GMT Switzerland will pop up its UBS consumption indicator, followed by the big KOF economic barometer at 7:00 am GMT. Both reports don’t usually inspire prolonged reaction from the franc pairs, but check them out anyway and see if you can grab quick pips from them!

No major reports? No problem! The Swiss franc extended its gains against the dollar yesterday despite the lack of Tier 1 data from Switzerland. USD/CHF finished the day lower at .9254 after opening at .9298.

The franc got lucky that the FOMC Statement didn’t come out hawkish. Of course, it might also helped that the third-tier KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland came in higher at 1.23 than the 1.21 forecast. I wonder, will Lady Luck still be on its side today?

If you’re trading the franc, be sure you’re on your toes for any shifts in market sentiment. Keep in mind that the currency tends to do well when risk appetite is up!

Looks like the Swissy was caught snoozing yesterday! It lost massive pippage against the dollar as Switzerland celebrated a banking holiday. USD/CHF rose 114 pips to land at .9368.

Even though newswires were silent in Switzerland, we saw plenty of action on USD/CHF. Unfortunately, it was mostly bearish for the Swissy. With U.S. data printing better than expected, the dollar outshone the Swiss currency, leading to USD/CHF largest rally in over two months.

Today, we have the SVME PMI on tap, and survey says it’ll rise from 51.9 to 53.1. If this report can manage to impress the markets, it could lead USD/CHF to retrace some of its footsteps and give back some pips to the Swissy. Catch it at 7:30 am GMT! Also, keep in mind that the NFP report is due this New York session, so there’s a good chance we’ll say plenty of volatility on USD/CHF right before the weekend.

The Swissy made up for its poor performance on Thursday by dominating the dollar right before the weekend. Spurred by weak U.S. employment numbers, USD/CHF traded lower and finished at .9294, down 75 pips on the day.

You ought to know that the lower-than-expected U.S. NFP figure wasn’t the only thing that led the markets to favor the Swissy – Switzerland also published a Swissy-supportive report of its own. The SVME PMI printed above expectations at 57.4 (versus 53.1 forecasts), revealing a much stronger than anticipated expansion in the Swiss manufacturing industry.

We won’t be getting any reports from Switzerland until Thursday, when the SECO consumer climate, foreign currency reserves, and CPI reports are due. So until then, sit tight and check our economic calendar for events from the U.S. that may rock USD/CHF. Good luck and happy trading, folks!