The Swissy, for a moment, paid a visit to its yearly high contra the USD. The USDCHF went as low as 1.0035 before closing higher at 1.0100. A break below the yearly low at 1.0034 could mean parity for the two currencies.
Both Switzerland and the US were idle yesterday in terms of economic reports. Trading was flat and tight given the lack of economic flows. Though as mentioned earlier, the Swissy approached for awhile its yearly high against the dollar before pulling back.
Today (10:00 am GMT), Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations in November will be made public. October’s tally was pegged at 65.0. Given the improvements in Switzerland’s SECO consumer climate and CPI, it is probable to see a gain in this index as well. Such could then be bullish for the CHF at least in the short term.
Later at 5:00 pm GMT, SNB Governing Board Member Thomas Jordan will issue a speech regarding the challenges of SNB’s monetary policies. Since he is going to talk about the bank’s challenges, there’s a chance that he could drop some clues regarding their possible monetary actions in the future. Any suggestions about the bank’s future moves could cause some volatility for the CHF.
The Swissy took a couple of steps back from parity in yesterday’s trading session. It looks like the dollar bulls managed to gather some strength risk aversion crept back into the markets.
The ZEW Economic Expectations wasn’t able to provide support for the Swissy. The survey, which is designedto measure sentiment by using a positive/negative scale, showed that investors became less optimistic this month. It printed a reading of 56.4, lower than October’s 65.0 reading.
On deck today is the country’s Producer Price Index for October. It is expected to show that the overall prices of goods and materials purchased by manufacturers rose by another 0.1%, after increased 0.2% in September.
Take note, however, that the Swissy’s price action would probably be largely dependent on the euro zone’s upcoming GDP report at 7:00 am GMT. If euro zone’s GDP comes out better-than-expected, the Swissy would most likely be bought up as well.
Dollar bears took over yesterday, bringing the USDCHF along with them. The USDCHF gave back much of its gains from Thursday to end the week at 1.0119.
On Friday, the producer price index showed that manufacturers paid 0.4% less in October on goods and materials than they did in September. This didn’t have much effect on the markets, as traders were focusing on reports coming out from the euro zone. I’d be more worried if prices continue to fall down the line – could it spark inflation concerns?
Nothing on deck today, so be on the lookout for high impact data coming out from the US later today. Tomorrow, we could see more movement as the retail sales y/y report comes out at 8:15 am GMT. Sales are expected to show an increase of 1.1%. If this comes in better than expected, could traders try to bring the Swissy nearer to parity?
The Swissy saw a bit of wild action yesterday as the USDCHF spiked up and down after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech. The pair shot all the way up to 1.0145 as Bernanke ensured a strong USD policy but it snapped back to consolidation mode soon after.
No economic reports are due from Switzerland today, leaving US economic data as the main driver for the USDCHF price action. The US schedule is jampacked today as it releases PPI figures, TIC long-term purchases, and industrial production data starting 1:30 pm GMT. Would we see more spikes on the USDCHF chart today? Better be careful!
The Swissy snapped its two-day winning streak over the greenback as the US Dollar index rallied by as much as 1%. The USDCHF recovered much of its losses this week. The pair, however, hit some considerable resistance at the 1.0200 mark and its long term downtrend line. It could be heading down again.
The annualized retail sales in Switzerland slid again in September after already declining by 1.0% in August. Retail sales fell by 1.6% against the projection of a 1.1% increase. This could have a bad impact on Switzerland’s economy at least in the short term as retail sales are a major part of the country’s consumption which takes up about 57% of the country’s GDP.
The CHF fell following the release.
Meanwhile, several lackluster economic reports came out in the US. US’s core and headline PPI both came in below expectations. The weak PPI results could be an indication of a feeble CPI as well. Also, industrial production eased in October with only a marginal 0.1% increase. Production was initially seen to rise by 0.4% but the expiration of the government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program seemed to have tapered demand.
The equities markets in the US were somewhat mixed. Though, the major indices still managed to settle at new yearly highs. As mentioned, the USD rebounded following the weak economic reports.
No economic reports are due in Switzerland today. The CHF, however, could take cue from the CPI and housing data releases in the US later. Both building permits and housing starts are seen to rise slightly. US’s headline CPI, on the other hand, is estimated to remain at 0.2%. Positive results from these accounts could reflect well on the “anti-dollars” like the CHF.
The Swiss franc remained headstrong yesterday even as other major currencies fell against the dollar. The USD/CHF, from a high of 1.0170 during the Asian trading session, dropped all the way towards the 1.0100 region as the trading day moved forward.
Economic data from Switzerland was non-existent yesterday but expect to see the country’s trade balance today at 7:15 am GMT. The country’s surplus is predicted to have risen to 2.15 billion CHF in October from 1.91 billion CHF in September. The trade balance measures the net difference in value between imported and exported goods. A surplus value indicates that more goods were exported than exported.
The Swissy took some hits in intraday trading yesterday, falling on speculation of tighter banking regulations. The CHF was able to hang on though, as the USDCHF and EURCHF pairs rose to just 1.0135 and 1.5119.
The root of the volatile movement yesterday were comments made by [SNB](http://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/Swiss_National_Bank)Vice Chairman Philip Hildebrand, who said that the Swiss banks may need more regulation than banks from other countries. In turn, this caused traders to frown upon the franc, which led to some CHF selling yesterday. Take note that Hildebrand takes over as head of the SNB this coming January. In the past, he has pushed for a breaking up for banks that are considered “too big to fail” in order to limit potential risks if such banks do fail. Let’s see if he pushes this idea further one he steps up as the head honcho of the SNB next year.
In other news, a report showed that the Swiss trade surplus grew more than expected in October, rising to 2.46 billion CHF. It was originally estimated to increase to just 2.15 billion CHF.If this keeps up, it may give more incentive for the central bank to keep pushing for a weaker franc…
It looks like traders are gearing up for SNB Chairman’s Jean-Pierre Roth’s speech later today at 9:15 am GMT. EURCHF trading has been tight as of late – are traders waiting for any comments regarding the value of the CHF? Take note that last week, G20 leaders did not talk about the strength of their currencies. In the past however, we’ve seen the SNB intervene in the markets in order to keep the CHF weak. With this in mind, are traders fearful that another intervention is in the making?
The USDCHF zoomed from the 1.0100 area all the way up to a high of 1.0224 last Friday as USD strength dominated in the markets. SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth’s bullish outlook for the Swiss economy proved to be no match for last week’s USD rally.
During his speech last Friday, SNB Chairman Roth mentioned that the central bank’s unconventional policy measures worked in curbing the effects of the economic recession. According to him, those measures have boosted liquidity and prevented an excessive strengthening of the CHF.
This week’s economic data from Switzerland is light as usual. Tuesday has the UBS consumption indicator on tap. The reading for September stood at 0.63 and any improvement for October could allow the CHF to regain ground. The third quarter employment level, which is estimated to be 3.96 million, is also due then. Lastly, the KOF economic barometer, which could rise from 1.45 to 1.85, will be released on Friday.
The Swissy snapped its two-day slump as it rallied against the USD in yesterday’s price tug-o-war. The USDCHF pair fell to as low as 1.0072 before closing at 1.0096. 1.0034 appears to be a critical support for the pair. We could probably see parity between the two currencies if the pair breaches the mentioned level.
No economic reports were due in Switzerland yesterday. Higher yielding assets and most of the “anti-dollars” staged a coup when existing home sales in the US in October jumped 10.1% from September to 6.10 million units. Comments from Chicago Fed President Evans and St. Louis Fed President Bullard also placed selling pressure on the USD. Evans said that the present level of low interest rates would likely stay until 2010. Bullard, on the other hand, also said that the Fed would possibly keep its debt-buying program past the 1Q of 2010.
Today, Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator for the month of October will be released at 7:00 am GMT. The account logged in a score of 0.63 back in September. A gain in the index could benefit the CHF once again.
Switzerland’s employment level for the third quarter will also be published today at 8:15 am GMT. The number of people that were employed during the period is seen to have increased slightly to 3.96 million from 3.95 million. Creation of jobs is vital for any economy since it is one of the major determinants of consumer spending. Hence, a rise in employment could also give the CHF some boost.
The major market moving event for today, however, will be the publication of US’s preliminary GDP for the third quarter. The expansion in the US economy is seen to have slowed to 2.9% from the 3.5% reported earlier due to a widening trade deficit. The report could cause some volatility among the currencies so be on the guard. In any case, a better-than-expected result could spark another buying frenzy among anti-dollars like the CHF.
The Swissy fell early during the Asian session but eventually managed to regain its losses once the day rolled along. From the looks of it, the Swissy was propped up by the optimistic results of German Ifo Business Climate report from euro zone.
Switzerland’s economic calendar will beclear as the bright blue sky today as no data is scheduled for release. The next only data left on the country’s calendar is the KOF economic barometer. It will be released on Friday, 10:30 am GMT.
Welcome to the parity! The USDCHF finally reached (and broke through) the key 1.000 mark. The pair traded as low as 0.9960, reaching levels it hadn’t reached since early 2008.
The USDCHF got carried along by risk hungry traders, investors and dollar bears. But before all you CHF bulls get wasted by celebrating this parity, be aware that a massive bouncer is lurking in the darkness… In case you don’t know who I’m talking about, it’s the SNB! While the central bank normally looks at the EURCHF as basis for the franc’s strength, this recent move to parity may just give the SNB incentive to intervene in the markets. Taking a look back, the last time the USDCHF was below the 1.000 handle, it only lasted two week before the SNB did something about it! So, my advice? Don’t drink and trade – be sober when trading CHF pairs over the next couple of weeks!
Yikes, the Swissy just got kicked out of the parity yesterday! Heightened risk aversion and thin liquidity joined forces and threw the USDCHF out of the 1.0000 area.
Apparently, risk aversion was caused by news of a probably sovereign debt default by Dubai. The safe-haven greenback rallied as investors feared that Dubai’s debt problem might be the worst one in over a decade! With Dubai’s government asking for a debt extension from international financial companies, credit-rating agencies lowered their ratings for state-run companies as they anticipated an official default. The markets then took this as a sign warning that global financial stability and a world-wide economic recovery might hit a couple of bumps along the way.
Today, the Swiss economic calendar has one report on tap. That’s the KOF economic barometer due at 5:30 am GMT. It could show that the reading for November climbed from 1.45 to 1.85. Could it be the Swissy’s chance to get back in the parity zone?
The Swissy, just other major currency pairs, managed to gain back some lost ground Friday. It seems that currency traders realized they over reacted to Dubai’s credit concerns, helping risk aversion ease.
The KOF economic barometer for November released last Friday came in at 1.62, significant lower than the 1.82 forecast. It was higher than October’s 1.44 reading though. The report reveals that although Switzerland would probably continue to post GDP growth, the momentum of recovery would be much slower than initially expected. The KOF economic barometer is Switzerland’s version of the leading index. It tries to predict the direction of the economy in the next six months by combining 12 economic indicators.
The data to watch out for this week are the SVME PMI (Tuesday, 8:30 am GMT) and the country’s CPI (Friday, 8:15 am GMT). Both reports are for the month of November.
The SVME PMI basically tries to assess whether businesses in Switzerland are growing or shrinking using a boom/bust scale. A reading higher than 50.0 means that businesses are growing. Economists forecast a reading of 54.9 for this month, which is slightly higher than October’s reading of 54.0.
The CPI, on the other hand, measures the monthly percentage change in the price of goods and services commonly bought by consumers. Since consumer prices compose a huge chunk of economic activity, the CPI is a good measure of the country’s inflation. A rising CPI generally pressures the central bank to raise rates, which is bullish for the domestic currency. The expectation is for the CPI to show that prices increased 0.1%, slower than last reporting period’s 0.6% rise.
The Swiss franc traded in a U-type fashion against the dollar yesterday. The franc managed to edge up against the dollar early during Asia but failed to follow through reversed all its gains when the European trading session moved along.
No economic data from Switzerland yesterday but we’ll be seeing the country’s GDP report for the third quarter of 2009 at 6:45 am GMT later today. Economists are expecting the country to finally swim out of the recession pool this time around and post a 0.3% growth in its economy. If the forecast holds or goes beyond consensus, we could see some franc buying across the board.
There’s also the SVME PMI for November at 8:30 am GMT. Like other PMI reports, the SVME PMI asks the purchasing managers of manufacturers to rate the status of the manufacturing industry. A rating above 50.0 means the manufacturing industry is booming while a rating below 50.0 means otherwise. The forecast is a reading of 54.9, slightly higher than October’s reading of 54.0.
Break out the wine and cheese – Switzerland is finally no longer in a recession! A report showed that the Swiss economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter. This helped boost risk sentiment, which allowed the CHF to hit parity against the dollar once again.
The Swiss finally joined their European buddies Germany and France, as the GDP report showed an expansion of 0.3% last quarter. This was a nice improvement, especially since GDP figures from the 2nd quarter were revised to show a 2.4% decline, as opposed to the initial reports that showed a 2.0% decline. Despite continuing labor problems, Swiss officials said that consumer consumption remained strong, growing by 0.6% in the quarter.
Also released yesterday was the SVME PMI report. The index posted a reading of 56.9, which was better than analysts forecast of a score of 54.9. With the index above the 50.0 mark for the 4th consecutive month, this indicates that the Swiss manufacturing industry has been steadily expanding.
With nothing coming out over the next few days, I hope the Swiss don’t get too carried away with their celebration! We all know that sentiment can change on a dime, so stay on your toes!
The Swissy was stuck in a really tight range yesterday as traders eagerly awaited the release of US economic data. Soon after, the USDCHF edged a bit higher as the ADP non-farm employment reading came in weaker than expected.
Risk averse traders bought up the safe-haven USD as the ADP non-farm employment report showed that net job losses amounted to 169K in November. This was worse than the consensus of 149K in job cuts for the month.
No economic reports were released from Switzerland yesterday and none are expected for today. I guess that means the USDCHF pair is at the mercy of US economic reports yet again! The US economic calendar has weekly jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on tap. Would we see a little more volatility today?
The Swissy still managed to lock in some profits over the dollar despite the tentativeness in the US capitals markets. The USDCHF magically closed exactly at parity (1.0000) after falling to as low as 0.9961.
Switzerland’s economic calendar was report-free yesterday. The CHF traded on the positive end during the Asia and euro sessions. It was, however, forced to surrender some of its gains back to the dollar because of the weakness in the US market due to ECB President Trichet’s dovish comments regarding their policies and the dismal ISM non-manufacturing PMI result.
Today, Switzerland’s CPI will be reported. The country’s month-over-month inflation is seen to be at 0.1% in November from the 0.6% score in October. Switzerland, though, is expected to remain under a deflationary environment with a -0.1% projected annualized CPI. In any case, the increase in the number could give additional short term support for the CHF.
The Swissy was injured badly last Friday when better-than-expected results from the US NFP report printed. The Swissy, after hanging out around parity for a few days, slipped back to 1.0188, the highest price level from the week before.
Released that day also was the Swiss consumer price index. Although unnoticed, the CPI for November reported that the falling of prices year-on-year finally ended. Digging deeper into the report revealed that the rising price of fuel helped pull Switzerland out of deflation. On a monthly basis, the CPI managed to print an increase of 0.2%, higher than the 0.1% initially expected.
For this week, important news to watch are the retail sales report (Today, 8:15 am GMT) and the SNB’s interest rate decision (Thursday, 8:30 am GMT).
The retail sales report, which will be released later today, is for the month of October. The forecast is that sales grew 1.2%, opposite the 1.6% drop seen the month before. If the actual figure comes out higher, expect to see the Swissy to gain some buyer support.
Even if the Swiss National Bank is expected to keep deposit rates steady at 0.25%, the SNB rate decision and the accompanying statement would probably garner attention. Interest rate decisions tend to be a big deal in the forex world and rate hikes (or the simply the prospect of a rate hike) is usually enough reason for currency traders to buy up the domestic currency. Another thing to keep an ear out for is any talk about currency intervention. Any mention of currency intervention could spook traders and cause traders to sell the Swissy.
The Swiss franc took some hits in the early going against the USD, as it looked like USD buying would dominate trading once again. However, enthusiasm towards the greenback died down, allowing to CHF to recuperate some of its losses. The USDCHF pair closed slightly higher at 1.0202.
A report revealed that retail sales in October rose by 1.3% from levels a year ago. The report came out better than expected, as it was projected that sales would rise by just 1.2%. No surprises here – after all, Switzerland was able to exit the recession last quarter.
Tomorrow, Swiss unemployment data will be available. Analysts project that the unemployment rate will rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. The report doesn’t normally have a big impact, so even if the results beat expectations, don’t expect to see a strong reaction in CHF trading like we did in USD and CAD trading last Friday.
Dragged farther and farther from parity, the USDCHF edged towards the 1.0300 area as risk aversion dominated for another day. While Monday’s risk sentiment was a result of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech, yesterday’s USD rally was spurred by debt concerns from all over the globe.
If you think that global debt concerns (particularly Dubai’s credit problem) are old news, think again. Worldwide debt concerns resurfaced as Greece’s credit rating got a downgrade yesterday. Investors let go of riskier assets as they fled to the safe-haven arms of the USD and JPY. Also prompting the flight to safety was Moody’s announcement that the US debt is “testing the AAA boundaries”, implying that the US could suffer a downgrade as well.
The CHF could continue to give way to the USD rally as Switzerland is expected to report an increase in unemployment. Their unemployment rate, which is due 6:45 am GMT today, could climb from 4.1% to 4.2%.