Look who has come back from the dead! The pound posted its biggest one-day gain in seven months as it clawed its way back against the dollar to finally end its long losing streak. GBP/USD surged 159 pips to end the day at 1.5083.
After dumping the pound for days and days, the markets decided to finally cover their short positions, resulting in a strong pound rally. While it’s hard to say for sure what suddenly revived market interest in the pound, some say it might have been the result of a reports that Qatar is thinking of investing billions of pounds into infrastructure projects in the U.K.
No economic reports coming out today, but as we saw yesterday, the pound doesn’t always need hard numbers to move. That said, perhaps MPC Member Dale’s speech, scheduled for the London session, can trigger another sharp move on the pound. Catch it at 11:00 am GMT!
Make that two in a row baby! The pound climbed once again, as it rose 13 pips to finish at 1.5097. Will we see it rise for the third straight day today?
No big news from our buddies over in England last Friday, but we saw the pound carry over its momentum from Thursday as it took advantage of overall dollar weakness. Make sure you hit up my U. S. commentary for the 411 on what sank the scrilla!
Looking ahead, we’ve got another empty schedule ahead so we may see the markets stay in consolidation mode. Good luck trading today, pound playas!
Reeeewind! After gapping up 22 pips to start the week, GBP/USD slid back down to end the day near last Friday’s close. The pair had opened at 1.5119, but it eventually settled at 1.5096.
The pound’s resilience is starting to show that more and more traders are beginning to trade the currency like a safe haven. It has become particularly appealing against the euro, which has once again been rocked by debt crisis concerns. Just take a look at EUR/GBP, homies! It gapped down a solid 100 pips to start the week!
But is its rally sustainable? That remains to be seen, especially since the U.K. has so many hard-hitting reports set to come out this week.
Take for instance today’s CPI report due at 9:30 am GMT today. Survey says the headline figure will probably tick up from 2.7% to 2.8%, while the core figure is expected to slide from 2.8% to 2.7%. If inflation clocks in below expectations, it would imply that the BOE has a bit of leeway to ease monetary policy and could result in a pound correction.
For the third day in a row, GBP/USD stuck within range, as it ended up closing just 5 pips above its opening price at 1.5100. How long is this gonna continue?!
No surprises from London yesterday, as the CPI report indicated that inflation clocked in at 2.8%. With all the red flags heading our way today, could we be in for an explosion on GBP pairs?
First, we’ve got employment figures headed our way at 9:30 am GMT. Expectations are that the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%, while another 5,200 people jumped off the jobless claims bandwagon.
Normally, the employment figures on their own cause quite a ruckus in the markets. Take note today though, that the latest MPC meeting minutes will be released at the same time so we could see some strong moves on GBP pairs.
Remember that at the last meeting, the board voted in favor of keeping asset purchases unchanged, with the ending vote coming in at 6-3. Word on the grapevine is that another member could have shifted to a dove stance, as there are more and more signs of weakness in the economy. Should that happen, we may just see the pound get slaughtered in today’s markets.
In any case, make sure read Forexgump’s latest post for some tips on playing the MPC meeting minutes!
Surprise, surprise! Contrary to what many were expecting, the BOE MPC meeting minutes revealed that the central bank did not grow dovish. Of course, this sent the pound skyrocketing up like a firework on the 4th of July!
GBP/USD rose from its intraday low of 1.5026 to 1.5187. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY finished the day higher at 145.13 after opening at 143.50.
The minutes was definitely a welcome surprise to the market. Heck, the U.K. has been printing one negative report after another and still, the central bank doesn’t seem worried?? To top it off, the report also revealed that policymakers are starting to fret about the pound’s recent depreciation.
I think it’s still noteworthy to point out that GBP/USD’s rise was limited to 1.5150 though. Perhaps if the employment report from the U.K. impressed markets, we would seen a more pronounced rally on the pair. While the unemployment remained steady at 7.8%, data showed that people filing for unemployment benefits only dropped by 1,500 in February when the consensus was for a 5,200 drop.
But don’t worry! Today, the U.K. retail sales report will be on tap. If it comes in better-than-the expected reading of 0.5% later at 9:30 am GMT, we could see the pound tap new weekly highs!
Finally, signs of a breakout from GBP/USD! Thanks to some positive economic data, Cable rallied hard yesterday, as it rose 63 pips to finish at 1.5172. Will we see a break above 1.5200 today?
Better-than-expected retail sales figures spurred the pound bulls higher, as good weather enticed shoppers to spend their hard-earned moolah. Sales rose by 2.1% last month, which was way higher than the anticipated 0.5% increase, and also marked the first time in 5 months that sales growth printed in positive territory. Let’s see if this is the start of a major pick-up in spending in the U.K.
In other news, the public sector net borrowing report showed that the local government posted a deficit of just 4.4 billion GBP, which was much smaller than the anticipated 8.4 billion GBP deficit.
For today, it looks like we’ve got an empty slate on our hands, but that doesn’t mean you can just take a chill pill if you normally trade the pound. Make sure you keep an eye on any developments from the euro zone, as that will most likely dictate trading today.
The pound was higher than a kite in Friday’s trading. For the first time in a month, GBP/USD closed above 1.5200. The pair was up 67 pips by the New York session close. Swoosh!
Some analysts say that the winds of change finally seem to have come in the pound’s way. A few analysts have pointed out that the currency, which was weighed down by negative data and a dovish outlook a few weeks ago, traded higher last week on positive data and a hawkish BOE.
The positive retail sales report released on Thursday continued to buoy the pound against the dollar. Also, the BOE renewed concern about inflation have market participants speculating that the central bank will be very hesitant in upping its asset purchases.
I have a feeling that if the BBA mortgage approvals report would come in better than the expected reading of 33,600 later at 9:30 am GMT, we could see the pound extend its rally. But as I always say, be very careful. Who knows, risk aversion could dominate sentiment and send the pound lower!
Cable’s rally lost a lot of steam yesterday, as optimism regarding latest deal in Cyprus was considered a dangerous precedent for the euro zone by market participants. From its day open price at 1.5227, Cable had plunged as low as 1.5143, before it closed the U.S. trading session at 1.5181.
Basically what happened was Eurogroup’s Jeroen Djisselbloem (don’t ask me how to say that) said that the bailout program made for Cyprus represents a new template for fixing financial problems in the region. This could force other countries in the euro zone to also make reforms on their own banking industries.
In other news, the BBA Mortgage Approvals report came in slightly weaker than expected. It showed that only 30,500 mortgages were approved, and not 33,600. Last month, there were 32,000 approvals.
For today, the only news report on the docket is the CBI Distributive Sales survey. It’s projected to print a reading of 12, up from the month’s prior reading of 8. The actual figure will be published at 11:00 am GMT.
Yikes! Make that two losses in a row! The pound extended its losses to the dollar yesterday no thanks to worse than expected U.K. data. By the end of the New York session, GBP/USD was down 21 pips from its opening price at 1.5160.
The CBI Realized Sales report for March printed at 0 when analysts were expecting an increase in consumer spending to 12 from February’s reading of 8. What’s more, the details of the report shows that retailers aren’t confident that the surge in U.K. retail sales we saw earlier during the month would be sustained going in to April.
We have a couple of reports for the pound today and chances are, they too would dictate its price action.
At 9:30 am GMT, the final reading of the U.K.'s Q4 2012 GDP will be on tap. No changes are expected from -0.3%. Also, the current account report for the same quarter is anticipated to print a 12.8 billion GBP deficit.
Worse-than-expected figures would most likely send the pound lower while positive readings could give it a boost. So watch out, okay?
Uh oh! It looks like the pound’s good luck is quickly running out! GBP/USD extended its losses to a third day in a row. GBP/USD dropped to an intraday low of 1.5094 before finishing the day 31 pips lower at 1.5129.
But I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. With risk aversion haunting the markets on concerns about Cyprus and disappointing data from the U.K., traders found little reason to buy up the pound. The current account report for Q4 2012 came in worse than expected when it printed a 14 billion GBP deficit, more than the 12.8 billion contraction that experts estimated.
Today the Nationwide HPI will be on tap at 7:30 am GMT. If it comes in below the market consensus of 0.2%, we could see further downside on the pound.
Of course, make sure that you also keep tabs on updates regarding Cyprus as the recently-bailed out country could once again affect market sentiment. Good luck!
As expected, with most major banks out on holiday, Friday turned out to be a very slow day in terms of price action. Cable exhibited little volatility as it paced back and forth in a 50-pip range. The currency pair found resistance at 1.5220 and support at 1.5180.
U.K. banks will remain closed today in observance of Easter, which means we could see Cable move horizontally once again. It’s also important to note that the economic data cupboard is also empty today. Looking further ahead into the week, however, we’ve got a few tier 1 events scheduled to happen.
Tomorrow, at 8:30 am GMT, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI will be published. It’s expected to print a reading of 48.9, slightly higher than last month’s reading of 47.9. Then on Wednesday, the Construction PMI will be released. For that survey, the forecast is a reading of 47.7, which is also an increase from the prior month’s reading of 46.8.
On Thursday, the Services PMI and the BOE’s interest rate decision are scheduled. For the Services PMI, market participants are anticipating a reading of 51.4, up from the previous month’s 51.8. For the BOE rate decision, they widely believe that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and keep the asset purchase facility at 375 billion GBP.
Since risk sentiment has been the driving force behind price action in the last few days, better-than-expected results on the reports I mentioned will probably lead to bullish rallies on Cable.
With the U.K. out on a banking holiday, the pound’s price action was dependent on movement from the other currencies. Dollar weakness boosted GBP/USD by 34 pips while yen strength dragged GBP/JPY by a whopping 103 pips.
Will we see a more cohesive direction from the pound pairs today? At 8:30 am GMT the U.K. will print not only its manufacturing PMI but also its individual lending and mortgage approvals data. Analysts will pay close attention to these reports because many are still cautious about the U.K.’s recovery despite the upside surprises that we’ve seen in some major reports. Right now the U.K.’s manufacturing PMI is expected to jump to 48.9 after showing a 47.9 reading last month.
Good luck and good trading, homies!
Oh, the bloodbath! The pound got heavily beaten during yesterday’s trading with GBP/USD falling close to the 1.5100 handle and GBP/JPY tumbling to the 141.00 mark. What the heck happened and will the pound have a chance to recover today?
Weaker than expected U.K. manufacturing PMI is to blame for the pound’s massive selloff during the London and New York sessions yesterday. The actual figure climbed from 47.9 to 48.3, below the consensus at 48.9, which meant that the contraction in the industry was worse than estimated. Remember that BOE officials are currently keeping close tabs on business surveys before they come up with their interest rate decision later this week.
It didn’t help that the U.K. also suffered a significant decline in mortgage approvals for the month of February as the figure dropped from 54K to 52K, its lowest reading since September 2012.
Another business survey that could have a huge impact on pound price action is today’s construction PMI reading. The report could show that the contraction in the industry slowed down as the figure is slated to rise from 46.8 to 47.8. If the actual result disappoints again though, GBP/USD could break below the 1.5100 handle and possibly reach the 1.5000 major psychological level. Keep an eye out for the actual report due 9:30 am GMT.
Not bad, pound bulls! The pound might have weakened against most of its counterparts but it had also posted gains against the Greenback. Guppy slipped by 47 pips but Cable shot up by 32 pips. What’s ahead for the pound today?
Let’s see if the Asian session traders will react to the miss in construction PMI yesterday. After all, the data came in at 47.2 when analysts were expecting a 47.7 reading. Never mind that the previous reading was at 46.8!
At 8:30 am GMT today we’ll see the services PMI report. Market players are looking for a 51.4 reading, which is slightly lower than the previous month’s 51.8 figure. A big miss could weigh on the pound, especially since many are getting skeptical over the U.K. economy’s economic recovery lately.
At 11:00 am GMT we’ll also hear from the BOE folks as they print their monetary policy decision. Right now many are expecting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep its interest rates and asset purchases steady. This could be a non-event for the pound since there would be no press conference following the decision (unless they actually change something).
A lot of traders are watching these reports today so don’t even think of missing it!
My, my! What a rally by the pound! GBP/USD climbed all the way back above the 1.5200 major psychological level during yesterday’s trading while GBP/JPY skyrocketed to the 146.00 area. What the heck caused those rallies?
Stronger than expected U.K. services PMI turned the frowns upside down for the pound pairs as the figure for March came in at 52.4, up from the previous month’s 51.8 reading and higher than the estimated 51.4 figure. This reveals that the expansion in the services sector strengthened last month.
On top of that, pound traders were also relieved to find out that the BOE didn’t make any changes to its monetary policy. The minutes of their recent meeting should shed more light on the policymakers’ assessment of the U.K. economy and their outlook for the near term, but it’s pretty clear that they believe the British economy will be able to get by even without additional stimulus.
Only the Halifax HPI is set for release from the U.K. today and this report should give a picture of how the housing sector is faring. House prices are expected to have ticked up by 0.2% in March, weaker than the 0.5% increase seen in February. A smaller than expected increase or a drop in house prices might force the pound to return some of its recent gains.
The rally continues! For the third straight day, GBP/USD finished above its opening price as it posted a 102-pip gain to end the week. Will the pound continue to dominate this week?
Although the Halifax HPI revealed that the increase in house prices ticked down from 0.5% to 0.2% in March (as expected), the pound had no problems appreciating against the dollar.
Word on the street is that the pound got a boost from MPC member Spencer Dale. He claimed that the recent improvements in the labor market have left policymakers scratching their heads. He also added that he doesn’t think it’s wise to surprise the markets with changes in monetary policy, which means that the BOE may drop hints and manage expectations long before it makes its next policy move.
We’ve only got a couple of minor reports coming out at 11:01 pm GMT today. The BRC retail sales monitor is due, and it’ll be interesting to see if sales growth increased from the 2.7% surge we saw in February. Meanwhile, the RICS house price balance report is set to show a 4% decline in house prices for the month of March, which isn’t exactly the best follow-up to February’s 6% slide.
If you’re looking to play more notable reports, you’ll have to wait until Tuesday, when the U.K. publishes its manufacturing production and trade balance figures. 'Til then, y’all should sit tight, homies!
After consolidating above 1.5300 for most of the day, GBP/USD sold off during the U.S. session and reached the 1.5250 area. GBP/JPY, on the other hand, moved sideways between 150.75 and 151.50. What’s in store for the pound today?
Earlier today, the U.K. reported a 1.9% increase in its BRC retail sales monitor for March, following the previous 2.7% growth. This means that the increase in same-store sales at the retail level slowed down recently. Meanwhile, the RICS house price balance showed a 1% decrease, better than the projected 5% drop, which means that less surveyors are posting house price declines in their area.
Later on, the U.K. will print its manufacturing production figure for February and possibly post a 0.4% rebound from the 1.5% decline seen last January. Also due today is the U.K. trade balance for February, which is projected to show a wider deficit of 8.7 billion GBP from the 8.2 billion GBP in the previous month. Keep an eye out for those reports due 9:30 am GMT as these could trigger a pound selloff if the actual figures miss expectations.
The pound continued to make headway against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen yesterday as GBP/USD inched up to the 1.5300 major psychological level while GBP/JPY reached a high of 152.40. Will the pound continue to rack up the gains today?
Economic data from the U.K. was as mixed as a bag of nuts yesterday as the manufacturing and industrial production reports came in strong while the trade balance missed expectations. Manufacturing production is up by 0.8%, better than the expected 0.4% increase, but the previous figure suffered a downward revision. Industrial production recovered by 1.0% after dropping by 1.3% in the previous period. Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened from 8.2 billion GBP to 9.4 billion GBP, larger than the estimated 8.7 billion GBP shortfall.
There are no reports due from the U.K. today so the pound might be in for quiet trading for the rest of the day. If you’re trading GBP/USD, don’t forget to take a look at the FOMC meeting minutes set for release during the U.S. session as this could spark volatility for the pair.
Not much action for pound pairs yesterday, as no U.K. data was released. GBP/USD stayed within range, while EUR/GBP dipped slightly. Will we see a repeat performance in today’s action?
The only bit of significant news that came from the U.K were comments made by MPC member David Miles, who said that the Bank of England needed to implement even more aggressive monetary policy in order to boost growth for the economy. Not much of a surprise here, as Miles is one of the policymakers who voted in favor of more bond purchases.
No hard data on tap once again today, so we may see more of the same type of consolidation on pound pairs. Nevertheless, pay attention to what’s happening in the euro zone or in the U.S., as you never know what might rock the markets!
Soarin’! Despite the lack of economic reports from the U.K., it would seem that the pound didn’t have any trouble finding demand in yesterday’s trading. It finished the day higher at 1.5389 after opening at 1.5325 against the dollar. Meanwhile, against the yen, it closed with a 43-pip win at 153.37.
There still isn’t anything on tap from the U.K. today. However, the U.S. retail sales report is scheduled to be released and euro zone finance ministers will start their meetings. Keep tabs on these events because they may just spark volatility on the charts that could move the pound!