Daily Economic Commentary: United States

Trading Discussion News and Economy
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It didn’t take long for bulls to regain control of the dollar. They put its two-day slide to an end and erased some of its recent losses as a flight to safety boosted the safe haven currency. While EUR/USD slid 52 pips to close at 1.2995, USD/JPY finished 25 pips higher and ended at 78.03. Can the dollar hold on to its gains this time around?

So far, the dollar seems to be benefitting from uncertainty in the euro zone. Even though the European Union recently drew plans to set up a 150 billion euro credit-line with the International Monetary Fund, a lot of questions remain unanswered, and in turn, this has been weighing down on investor confidence.

Considering the fact the investors are still quite focused on the European debt crisis, I would say that market conditions continue to favor the dollar. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it chalk up more gains today!

Let’s just hope that today’s housing starts and building permits data don’t disappoint. The reports, which are due at 1:30 pm GMT, could trigger a dollar rally if they show positive results. Housing starts are expected to tick up from 630,000 to 640,000 while building permits are seen to fall from 640,000 to 630,000. Since this will give the markets its first taste of significant U.S. data this week, it could have a substantial impact on the dollar, so don’t miss it, homies!

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So much for a putting an end to the dollar’s losses! Thanks to better-than-expected economic data from the U.S., the high-yielding currencies gained ground against the Greenback. The dollar bears were able to push GBP/USD 156 pips up from its open price, while EUR/USD also rocketed by 83 pips to 1.3078.

The good vibes started spreading during the London session when Germany printed better-than-expected economic reports. Not only that, Spain apparently had a successful bond auctions too, selling 5.64 billion EUR worth of bonds against the target of only 4.5 billion EUR.

Still, it was the U.S. economic reports that sealed the deal for the currency bulls. The U.S. building permits printed at 680,000 in November, a 9.3% jump that represents the highest level in 19 months. In addition, housing starts clocked in at 690,000 in the same month against expectations of only a 640,000 million figure. Booyah!

Let’s see if the U.S. can follow through with its string of strong economic reports today. At 3:00 pm GMT we’ll get hold of the existing home sales report, followed by the crude oil inventories data at 3:30 pm GMT.

Keep a close eye on these reports if you’re trading the news!

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The dollar made up for its lackluster performance on Wednesday by taking back a good number of pips it had lost against its major counterparts. It stole 23 pips away from the yen while snatching 31 pips away from the euro. Let’s see if it’ll hold on to its gains today!

Although existing home sales data came in disappointingly, the dollar remained the king of the hill as the ECB’s decision to dish out big loans to European banks boosted demand for the safe haven currency.

Existing home sales fell short of expectations last month, registering an annualized number of homes sold of just 4.42 million rather than 5.04 million. To make matters worse, October’s 4.97 million figure was revised down to just 4.25 million. Ouch! We already knew the U.S. housing market was in bad condition… but apparently, it’s even worse than we thought!

At 1:30 pm GMT today, we’ll take a look at the latest unemployment claims data. Survey says that a total of 376,000 individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week, slightly up from the previous week’s 366,000 claims.

At the same time, the U.S. final GDP report will be due. No changes are expected to be made to the previous estimate which measured GDP growth at 2.0% last quarter. That being the case, the markets may react if we see a figure other than 2.0%.

Last but not least, at 2:55 pm GMT, the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment report will be available. My homeboys say we’ll likely see an upward revision from 67.7 to 68.1.

Phew! With so many reports on tap, we could be in for another wild day! Just remember to practice smart risk management so you don’t get burned, playas!

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What a comeback by Uncle Sam! What looked like a surefire loss turned out to be not-so-bad, as the greenback was able to buck its earlier losses. After hitting a high at 1.3120, EUR/USD came crashing back down to finish at 1.3050, just 3 pips higher than its opening price. Meanwhile, GBP/USD backed off the 1.5700 handle to close at 1.5677, right smack at its opening price.

So changed that allow the dollar to rally?

Apparently, we saw a mini wave of risk aversion creep back into the markets, as we received some disappointing GDP figures. The U.S. economy grew 1.8% last quarter, which was below the expected 2.0% figure. That figure, along with rumors that France may get downgraded, spooked the markets and helped the dollar rally.

In other news, initial jobless claims came in slightly better-than-anticipated, printing at 364,000. This was below the expected 376,000, and also marked a small improvement from last week’s 368,000 number.

Meanwhile, the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 69.9, which was a decent improvement from the initial report’s score of 67.7.

For today, we’ve actually got a slew of red flags coming up during the New York session.

At 1:30 pm GMT, both the core durable goods and core PCE price index will be released. Expectations are that core durable goods orders grew by 0.5% last month. If today’s report comes in worse-than-expected, it could spark another wave of risk aversion. As for the PCE price index, just remember that this is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and it is expected to show that inflation remains subdued at 0.1%. Any major deviation from this figure may elicit a strong market reaction, so be careful.

Later on at 3:00 pm GMT, new home sales figures will also be available. Word is that the annualized rate of new home sales increased from 307,000 to 314,000 in the past month. Take note that we’ve seen mixed results from the housing sector this past week, so don’t be surprised if the report comes in exceedingly better or worse than projected.

That’s it for this week folks! Let me just wish you a Merry Christmas! Hopefully you get an early Xmas present and make some pips today!

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Will the Greenback be able to party like it’s 2012? It seems like it spent the last few days of 2011 losing ground to most of its major counterparts, except for the euro. EUR/USD ended the year below the 1.3000 handle while the rest of the higher-yielding currencies enjoyed the Santa Claus rally.

Although there weren’t a lot of hard-hitting economic reports released towards the end of the year, we saw a pretty decent risk rally as Forex Gump predicted in his article about a possible Santa Claus rally. One reason that could explain this was that traders closed out their positions before 2011 came to a close. Another reason was that Italian bond auctions turned out slightly better than expected, as yields didn’t spike up too much.

Aside from that, the U.S printed a couple of better than expected economic figures just after Christmas. Pending home sales beat expectations and showed a 7.3% increase, which was a lot higher than the estimated 1.7% gain for November. Chicago PMI came in at 62.5, surpassing the consensus at 60.4.

For today, the economic calendar is as empty as my wallet after all that holiday spending. Banks are still on a holiday, which means that we could see less trading activity for the day. Better use this time to review how the major currencies fared last year or to read up on what’s in store for the markets this 2012!

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With traders still partyin’ likes its 2012, consolidation reigned over the markets as expected. EUR/USD traded within a tight range of just 50 pips, while GBP/USD trading was choppy and eventually closed at 1.5501, just 3 pips below its opening price for the day.

No surprises here, as most markets were still off on holiday and no hardcore data was released. That could all change today though, as we’ve got some really red flags on deck during today’s New York session.

First, we’ve got the ISM manufacturing PMI coming out at 3:00 pm GMT. The index is projected to print a reading of 53.3, which would mark the third consecutive month that the index has improved. If the figure comes in much better-than-expected, it could serve as a catalyst for a risk rally, so watch out!

Later on at 7:00 pm GMT, Ben Bernanke and his boy band will turn up the heat when the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting are released. The minutes will reveal what was discussed and what exactly are on the minds of Fed officials.

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Aha! It looks like currency bulls tried to put their Usher on but they just couldn’t ignore positive data and let them burn. Risk appetite caused the demise of the dollar on the charts yesterday which consequently scored losses against all of its major counterparts.

EUR/USD rallied 127 from its opening price to close the day at 1.3054. Meanwhile, USD/CHF ended the day with an 82-pip loss at .9321.

It was reported yesterday that U.S. factories grew at the fastest pace in six months in December. The ISM manufacturing index printed at 53.9 after coming in at 52.7 in November, topping the consensus which was for a more modest increase to 53.3. This, along with positive reports data from the euro zone (details in my EUR commentary), sparked risk appetite.

With that said, be sure to keep tabs on the roster of reports that we have on tap today. Only the factory orders report for November is due from the U.S. (eyed at 1.9%). However, we do have a few from the U.K. and the euro zone too which could shift market sentiment.

Also, another event that we have to look forward (about three weeks from now) is the Fed’s first published interest rate forecast. Yup, you read that right. The FOMC minutes revealed that the Fed will begin publishing its forecasts. Apparently, the dudes and dudettes of the FOMC decided on the move in December but chose to keep it a secret until yesterday. Sneaky, eh?

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Guess who’s back in the game! The dollar yo! It followed up its big loss on Tuesday by clawing back and snatching a few pips away from its major counterparts. It managed to steal 108 pips away from the euro while gaining 8 pips against the yen. Will concerns about the euro zone debt crisis continue lifting the dollar today?

Judging by yesterday’s market action, it seems like the tides of risk sentiment may be turning in favor of the dollar again. Euro zone debt jitters resurfaced as a report from Spain indicated that the government is considering applying for a loan from the IMF and EU to restructure its banking sector. In turn, this helped fuel demand for the dollar.

Developments in Europe aside, it would be wise to also catch today’s U.S. reports. Considering how the markets reacted to Tuesday’s positive U.S. data, we could see a similar reaction if the ADP non-farm employment report prints an upside surprise later at 1:15 pm GMT. Forecasts have this report showing an increase of 176,000 jobs last month, down from the 206,000 increase in November. However, there are those that believe that the ADP report will confirm the economy’s recent positive momentum.

Keep an eye on for this report, lads! Remember, employment has been one of the Fed’s main considerations in determining monetary policy. Besides, the ADP report is often viewed as a preview to the NFP report, which is already due this Friday.

After that, at 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll take a look at initial claims data. This weekly report is slated to show a total of 375,000 filings for unemployment benefits, down from the previous week’s 381,000 claims.

Last but not least, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI will round up our day at 3:00 pm GMT. Look for this index to mirror Tuesday’s manufacturing PMI data and show a nice improvement from 52.0 to 53.0.

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Who’s the king of the forex hills? That’s right, the Greenback is! The dollar showed the markets who’s boss yesterday after it gained sharply against its major counterparts on risk aversion and strong U.S. reports. EUR/USD plunged by as much as 119 pips, while USD/CHF shot up to close 111 pips higher than its open price. Booyah!

I could tell you about concerns in the euro zone and how the latest bond auctions gave the region’s investors more worries, but I’ll just tell you about the other factor why the dollar strengthened so much yesterday.

Why, it’s the employment-related reports, of course! The Challenger report on planned job cuts started the day on a positive note by printing at its lowest levels since June last year. Not only that, the ADP report also clocked in at 325,000 in December, which is A LOT better than the 176,000 figure that many were expecting.

Then, the initial jobless claims report also showed an improvement, dropping by 15,000 from its revised 387,000 number. The ISM services PMI disappointed expectations though, with its 52.6 reading against expectations of 53.00. Still, it was a bit better than November’s 52.0 figure, so I guess the investors didn’t feel too bad about it.

For today the NFP report and the U.S. unemployment rate are due at 1:30 pm GMT. For the newbies who just started trading forex, you should know that these reports are one of the closely watched, if not the most closely watched reports in across markets because of their significance on the world’s biggest economy.

Good luck trading the NFP, brothas!

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The safe haven Greenback continued its domination last Friday thanks to a strong employment report. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the currency versus other major currencies, ended the week at its highest level in almost a year at 81.85.

The U.S. employment report showed that 200,000 net jobs were added in December, which was much higher than the 152,000 increase initially predicted. The unemployment rate also improved, falling to 8.5% from 8.7% the previous month.

Whether the Greenback’s rally will continue this week or not will depend on how high economic reports from the U.S. will come out.

The first red flag on the economic calendar is the U.S. retail sales. It is scheduled to publish at 1:30 pm GMT on Thursday, and is expected to print a 0.3% rise. The core version of the report is also predicted to show the same increase.

The unemployment claims that will be released at the same time is also something to keep an eye out for. The consensus is a 370,000 figure. Given the strong employment figures for December, we could actually see the actual figure beat forecast.

On Friday, watch out for the Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The survey tends have a strong impact on price action, so pay attention to it! The market is expecting a 70.8 reading, which is a slight improvement from the previous month’s 69.9.

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After tearing up the joint to start the year, the dollar bulls finally took a break, allowing the greenback to retrace. EUR/USD climbed 85 pips to finish at 1.2773, while GBP/USD closed at 1.5465, up 42 pips from its opening price.

While we did see more risk-taking across different markets yesterday, probably the biggest reason why the dollar lost out was due to position covering by bigger institutions. Dollar longs (and euro shorts, for that matter) were at all-time highs, so it’s no surprise that some traders took off their positions and booked some profits.

No hard data lined up for today, but be aware that we have two more Fed mob bosses (Williams and Pianalto) speaking during the New York session. Take note that in a speech yesterday, Fed member Dennis Lockhart had a slightly optimistic tone, and mentioned that he now expects the U.S. economy to expand by 2.5%-3.0% in 2012. If Williams and Pianalto also portray an optimistic stance, it may just spark more risk-taking in the markets.

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The Greenback lost ground against most of its major counterparts yesterday as risk appetite extended its stay in the markets. EUR/USD was able to hold on to its recent gains as it closed at 1.2753 while GBP/USD ended at 1.5480. Against the yen, on the other hand, the U.S. dollar was able to edge higher as USD/JPY closed 1 pip higher than its 76.84 open price.

Even though the U.S. didn’t release any hard-hitting reports yesterday, traders seemed to have lost their appetite for the Greenback. For one thing, risk aversion stayed in check, thanks to the lack of disappointing news from the euro zone. Another factor that triggered the U.S. dollar selloff was the downbeat tone in some of the Fed officials’ speeches.

In his testimony, FOMC member John Williams talked about the need for the central bank to do anything in its power to keep the U.S. economy afloat. He pointed out that joblessness is likely to remain high and that, if inflation dips way below their target, another round of QE could be necessary. Meanwhile, FOMC member Sandra Pianalto also highlighted the weaknesses in the labor market while hinting at the need for looser monetary policy.

Today, another set of FOMC members are set to testify. FOMC members Lockhart, Plosser, and Evans will be making their speeches starting 2:00 pm GMT, and another round of dollar-selling might be in the cards if these officials emphasize the need for more easing. Bear in mind that both Evans and Lockhart are usually dovish about the U.S. economy while Plosser tends to be hawkish.

Also due today is the Beige Book report, which would contain the data and analysis used by the FOMC members to make their monetary policy decisions. The report is expected to note the significant improvements in the U.S. economy and, at the same time, pinpoint the economic threats that remain. Keep your eyes peeled for the release at 7:00 pm GMT.

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Thanks to a cautious market environment yesterday, the Greenback was able to sneak in some pips against its major counterparts. USD/CHF inched higher by 51 pips to .9542, while EUR/USD ended the day 66 pips lower than its open price.

Aside from the not-so-awesome news that popped out from the euro zone and the U.K. yesterday, the dollar was also supported by the Beige book report showing the U.S. economy expanding at a modest to moderate pace by the end of the year.

Seven out of twelve districts reported a “modest” growth; four registered a “moderate” growth, while only the Richmond district reported a flat or slight improvement in activity.

But wait, the fun doesn’t end there! The Fed members also made waves yesterday with both voting and non-voting members giving their two cents on the economy.

Voting member Lockhart straddled the fence by indicating that he’s open-minded about the need for more stimulus, while Lacker showed his hawkishness by saying that headwinds in the economy are more serious than originally thought. In the non-voting camp Plosser predicted a rate hike by mid-2013, while Evans leaned towards easier policy.

Will the Greenback pocket more gains today? At 1:30 pm GMT we’ll get hold of the big U.S. retail sales report together with the initial jobless claims data for this week. Though employment numbers have been making the investors giddy for the past couple of months, analysts only expect to see a 0.3% growth in retail sales for December.

We also have interest rate decisions from both the ECB and the BOE so make sure you keep your eyes glued to the tube for those potential market-moving reports!

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Aaah, there’s nothing like bad data to get the bears attacking. Just ask the dollar! Yesterday, the currency lost to almost all of its major counterparts following the disappointing retail sales report for December. EUR/USD ended the day 120 pips higher at 1.2827 while USD/JPY closed 10 pips below its opening price at 76.79.

It was reported yesterday that consumer spending only grew by 0.1% during the last month of the year and disappointed the 0.3% consensus. Excluding automobile purchases, the core retail sales report printed a 0.2% decline which also fell short of the market forecast which was for an increase of 0.3%.

Of course, it didn’t help that market sentiment improved thanks to a relatively optimistic ECB statement. However, the disappointing U.S. data gave investors more reason to flee the dollar.

Taking the figure into context, it seems like the improvement in the labor market which we saw in the December NFP report hasn’t translated to consumer spending. This has gotten economic gurus saying that the U.S. may have a harder time recovering.

Talking about the labor market, we also had the unemployment claims report yesterday which also upset dollar bulls. The Department of Labor reported that there were 399,000 people who filed for unemployment benefits last week, more than the market’s more modest forecast of 373,000. Yikes!

Given that, be sure you keep tabs on the economic data we have on tap from the U.S. today. At 1:30 am GMT, the trade balance report for November is going to be released and it is seen to print a deficit of 44.8 billion USD. Data on import prices will also be released alongside it and market junkies have predicted the report to come in flat for December.

Then at 2:55 pm GMT, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report will be on tap. An improvement in consumer confidence is expected for January as the forecast is higher at 71.2 than December’s 69.9 reading.

Because it seems like the market is trading based on fundamentals, better-than-expected reports will probably be bullish for the dollar. So watch out!

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Dollar bulls attaaaaack! Thanks to growth concerns in the euro zone and a positive report from the U.S., traders bought the Greenback like it was a new Apple product. EUR/USD plummeted by a whopping 143 pips to 1.2684, while USD/CHF rose by 84 pips to .9522. HA-OOH! HA-OOH!

Investors barely paid attention to the U.S. trade balance last Friday, which showed the country’s trade deficit widening from 43.3 billion USD to 47.8 billion USD in November. Heck, who would want bad news when the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report provides good vibes?

According to the UoM data, consumer sentiment rose from a 69.9 reading in December to a reading of 74.0 in January, mostly due to the recent increase in employment numbers. If only that would translate to more consumer spending!

Of course, we can’t talk about the dollar’s strength without mentioning the euro zone’s financial troubles. In a move that surprised no one but those who are living under a rock, credit rating agency S&P downgraded France, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Portugal’s ratings, with Portugal’s rating reduced to junk. Yikes! I have the details on my euro writeup if you want to read up on it.

For this week, will the currency bulls sustain their appetite for the Greenback? The U.S. is on a bank holiday today to celebrate Martin Luther King day, but tomorrow we’ll get hold of the New York manufacturing index at 1:30 pm GMT.

Not only that, we’ll also see the PPI, TIC long-term purchases, industrial production, and NAHB housing market index on Wednesday, followed by the building permits, CPI, initial jobless claims, housing starts, and the Philly Fed index report on Thursday. Lastly, the country’s existing home sales data will be released on Friday at 3:00 pm GMT.

Good luck trading this week, fellas!

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Consolidation was the name of the game yesterday as most dollar pairs, except for AUD/USD and USD/CAD moved sideways. EUR/USD hovered below the 1.2700 handle while GBP/USD kept its head above 1.5300. Will these pairs find a clearer direction today?

Since U.S. traders were off on a holiday, there was hardly any movement among the U.S. dollar pairs yesterday. This means that most U.S. traders haven’t had the chance to react to the recent S&P downgrades of nine euro zone nations and of the EFSF, hinting that we might see some strong moves as they return to their trading desks today.

There aren’t any economic reports due from the U.S. today, which suggests that risk sentiment could dictate where the dollar pairs are headed. Having a quick review of our School of Pipsology lesson on gauging market sentiment could come in handy!

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The Greenback generally found itself weaker yesterday as a slight case of risk appetite hit the markets. The U.S. dollar index that tracks the overall performance of the currency against other major currencies fell to 81.61 from its opening level during the Asian trading session.

It appears that the risk rally was primarily caused by happenings in China. Even though the country’s GDP weakened to 8.9% from 9.1%, reports on industrial production and retail sales came out positively. Industrial production rose 13.9% while retail sales surged 18.1%. This gave the market reason to believe that China won’t experience a sudden economic downturn like previously speculated.

Today, we’ve got a couple of red flags on the economic cupboard. At 1:30 pm GMT, the U.S. producer price index will be released. Both the headline and core version of the report is expected to show a 0.1% gain.

Following at 2:00 pm GMT are the TIC Long-term purchases and the Industrial production reports. TIC Long-term purchases are predicted to have risen to 27.3 billion USD from 4.8% billion USD. Meanwhile, industrial production is anticipated to have increased by 0.5% from -0.2%.

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Risk on, baby! The higher-yielding currencies enjoyed strong rallies yesterday but, unfortunately for the safe-haven Greenback, it turned out to be a day of losses. Will risk appetite stay in the markets today or will the Greenback bounce back?

It seems that traders are no longer bothered by the recent euro zone debt downgrades since they already saw that coming. The lack of safe-haven flows, combined with better expected reports from the U.S. was a recipe for disaster for the Greenback yesterday as it slumped against the riskier currencies.

U.S. TIC long-term purchases came in better than expected, as the report showed a 59.8 billion USD figure, more than twice as much as the consensus of 27.3 billion USD. On top of that, the figure for the previous month was revised up from 4.8 billion USD to 8.3 billion USD.

The PPI report, on the other hand, came in mixed with the core figure beating expectations and the headline figure coming up short. The headline PPI showed a 0.1% decline in producer prices instead of the projected 0.1% uptick while the core PPI printed a 0.3% increase.

With that, we can probably expect mixed CPI data from the U.S. today as well. Both core and headline figures are expected to post a 0.1% increase for December so watch out for the report due 1:30 pm GMT. Also due then are the building permits data for December, which could hold steady at 0.68 million. The housing starts report will also be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to come in at 0.69 million.

Later on, the U.S. will release the Philly Fed index which is expected to show a slight improvement in manufacturing activity for this month. The reading is projected to climb from 10.3 to 10.7 for the month, but a weaker than expected figure could undermine risk appetite. Keep an eye out for the actual release at 3:00 pm GMT.

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Dollar bears were beastin’ on the charts yesterday, causing the dollar to give ground and submit to its higher-yielding counterparts. That makes it 4 out of 4 for the bears this week! Will they complete the sweep today?

The dollar received another beating yesterday as the risk rally continued. Y’all know how investors love buying up high-yielding assets in times when risk appetite is up! Unfortunately, this often works against the dollar, and that’s exactly what we saw yesterday.

Though dollar would’ve probably had a better day if the reports it printed out worked in its favor. Unfortunately, it found no support from any of them!
Building permits only came in as expected, showing an annualized number of permits issued in December of 680,000, a repeat of November’s stats. Housing starts

Meanwhile, the headline CPI fell below expectations, showing a 0.0% figure once again instead of the 0.1% uptick that most were expecting to see. On the other hand, the core CPI fell in line with forecasts to print a 0.1% increase.

Then to end the day, the U.S. received more bad news as the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell from 10.3 to 7.3 rather than rising to 10.7 as so many economists had predicted.

With only existing home sales data, which is expected to improve from 4.42 million to 4.65 million, on tap today, it’ll be interesting to see if the dollar can reverse its recent losses. But if you ask me, it’s probably unlikely that the dollar will make much progress today considering the strength of the bearish moves we saw yesterday. In any case, I suggest you catch the report’s release at 3:00 pm GMT in case it prints a big surprise!

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The dollar’s price action was as mixed as a bag of beans last Friday as traders remained cautious on what the euro zone officials are planning for the days ahead. GBP/USD climbed by another 75 pips to 1.5568, but USD/JPY slipped to 76.97 while EUR/USD also dropped by 33 pips to 1.2934.

The U.S. wasn’t without its fireworks though. Last Friday’s U.S. existing home sales report reveals 4.61 million USD worth of existing homes were sold in December. The figure is a bit higher than November’s 4.39 million USD figure, but is still a bit lower than the 4.65 million USD figure that many were expecting.

Will the U.S. get its fair share of spotlight this week? No reports are scheduled for release today, so the Richmond manufacturing index tomorrow at 3:00 pm GMT will start the week for the U.S.

Wednesday will mark the first day of the annual World Economic Forum in Switzerland, a gathering of central bankers, finance ministers, and even prime ministers to talk about the global economy. At 3:00 pm GMT we’ll also see the U.S. pending home sales, and OFHEO house price index.

At 7:15 pm GMT also on Wednesday, we’ll get hold of the Fed’s first FOMC statement where the members will actually reveal their interest rate forecasts. Though the Fed is expected to retain its current interest rates, some believe that publishing their forecasts will create market volatility. Keep a close eye on this report, will ya?

We’ll see tons of other reports on Thursday when the core durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, new home sales, and CB leading index reports are released. Then, rounding up the economic reports on Friday is the big U.S. GDP data at 1:30 pm GMT. Market geeks expect the number at a 3.1% growth in the fourth quarter, but a much lower number might inspire risk aversion.

Good luck in your trades this week, fellas!