Daily Economic Commentary: United States

Trading Discussion News and Economy
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It looked like the USD was headed for another sweep of the table, but US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made some comments that made traders take a double take on the dollar. The dollar fell following his speech and gave up part of the gains it had made against other major currencies.

Big Boss Bernanke expressed concern yesterday that last Friday’s NFP report could be a one-month wonder and that the job market was still weak. Talk about bursting a bubble! Bernanke also said that more evidence was needed before it could be declared that the US was indeed headed towards sustainable recovery. He also indicated that he expects interest rates to remain low for an “extended period”. So once again, Bernanke expressed cautiousness that we have grown so accustomed to the past few months.

Not much high impact news coming out from the US over the next couple of days. I’m interested to see whether how traders react as there seems to be a lot of confusion in the markets. Does the recent USD rally have any legs? Or is this merely an opportunity for traders to buy higher yielding currencies at cheaper levels? Be safe my young padawans, and may the force be with you! (I really love that series!)

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All hail the mighty greenback! Major currencies bowed down to the US dollar as risk aversion plagued the markets yesterday. Obstacles to global recovery dampened demand for higher-yielding currencies as growing government deficits worldwide brought forth credit downgrade concerns.

Greece suffered a credit downgrade after Standard & Poor’s issued a report saying that Greek banks faced the highest default risks in Western Europe. Concerns about Dubai’s mounting debt problem resurfaced, aggravating the selloff of high-yielding currencies. Moody’s credit rating agency had already downgraded six companies from Dubai since government support is unlikely to provide aid for these firms.

Regarding the US economy, Moody’s noted that the US debt is also facing the possibility of a downgrade. This announcement sparked a flight to the safe-havens USD and JPY. It also didn’t help that investors were already losing risk appetite at the start of this week after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a downbeat speech on the state of the US economy.

Consumers are not too upbeat about their economic outlook as well. A gauge of economic optimism released yesterday showed that consumers became increasingly pessimistic about the US economy this November. The reading for the month fell from 47.9 to 46.8.

With the US economic calendar devoid of any high-impact reports today, the prevailing risk sentiment could continue to prop up the US dollar by virtue of its safe-haven status - unless the US winds up getting a credit downgrade today. Still, keep an eye out for wholesale inventories and crude oil inventories due 3:00 pm GMT.

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The greenback snapped its winning streak against most of the other major currencies yesterday due the lack of major economic flows in the US. The Dollar Index closed yesterday’s with a 0.3% loss.

Today, US’s trade balance and initial jobless claims are due at 1:30 pm GMT. The country’s trade deficit is seen to have widened again to -$36.9 billion in October from -$36.5 billion. An expansion in the trade gap means that more money left the country.

On a separate note, the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the week ending December 5 is expected to have reached 463,000, slightly higher than the previous week’s tally of 457,000. Claims continue to linger at the high 400,000s for five weeks now. Such tells me that US’s labor market remains frail.

Given the weak expected figures above, traders could once again run back to the safety of the USD.

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Good stuff PipDiddy! Added this thread to my daily reading list!

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Glad you like it!

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The dollar traded in a mixed fashion against other major currencies on Thursday. The dollar generally lost against the commodity-based currencies (CAD, NZD, AUD) but managed to remain resilient against the European currencies (GBP, EUR, CHF) and bounced around the session highs and lows.

Results on the economic news that came out were also mixed. The trade balance, which was suppose to show that the country’s trade deficit widened to 36.9 billion dollars October, narrowed to 32.9 billion dollars instead. According to the report, the weakening dollar helped pushed the country’s exports for the sixth month in a row.

Meanwhile, the unemployment claims for the week ending Dec. 5 printed a worse-than-expected figure. It reported that 474,000 people claimed for jobless insurance, slightly higher than the 463,000 forecast.

There’ll be a couple of data on the economic radar today but the market moving ones are the are the retail sales report for November (1:30 pm GMT) and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for December (2:55 pm GMT).

The retail sales report, which tracks the month-on-month increase (or decrease) of merchandise sold at the retail level, is expected to print a 0.6% increase for November, slightly slower than the 1.4% growth seen the month prior. However, the core version of the report, which leaves out automobile sales in its calculation, is predicted to show a 0.5% growth, higher than October’s 0.2% increase.

On the other hand, the forecast on the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment survey currently stands at 68.6, higher than November’s revised up reading of 67.4. A rising reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the dollar because it means that people are becoming more optimistic about the economy. If people have more faith on the situation economy and their own financial standing, the greater the chance they would spend. Still, a better-than-expected reading could inspire some risk appetite in the markets and could provide fuel for the bulls to buy up higher-yielding currencies and sell the dollar.

Fellow traders, also remember that today is a Friday. There is a high chance that we could see some nice movement in the forex markets as traders close shop for the week… Couple that with increased those high-profile economic reports I mentioned, we could be in for a wild ride!

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Hip hip hooray! The USD benefitted from some good data that was released on Friday. It seems that the inverse correlation between the dollar and equities is breaking more and more. Will this continue to be the theme for this week?

Retail sales figures were available last Friday, showing a rise of 1.3% in November, which beat expectations of just a 0.6% increase. And the rise wasn’t just attributed to car sales either. Core retail sales – which excludes automobile sales – rose by 1.2%, indicating that demand may be on the rise. Also released was the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The index posted a reading of 73.4, which was much higher than the projected score of 68.6.

Alas, before we all start jumping for joy and celebrating like its New Year’s Eve (just a few weeks away – I can’t wait!), please remember what you did right after Thanksgiving this year… No, I’m not talking about sitting in front of the tube and watching the ball game – I’m talking about Black Friday and Cyber Monday! There’s no doubt that sales were boosted by these two days of sales. Also, October’s sales were revised down from 1.4% to 1.1%! That being said, I think we should still be cautious and see if this sudden rush of consumer spending continues past the holiday season.

Taking a look at my economic calendar, it looks like there is a boat load of economic data docking in during the middle of this week. Let me pinpoint some reports that you should mark down.

On Tuesday, the Empire State manufacturing index and monthly industrial production reports will be available at 1:30 pm and 2:15 pm GMT respectively. The index is expected to post a score of 25.1, which indicates improving business conditions in the New York state, while the industrial production report is expected to show a month on month increase of 0.6%.

On Wednesday, housing data will be released in the form of the building permits and housing starts reports, both due at 1:30 pm GMT. The consumer price index will also be available at that time. Still, these reports may be overlooked as traders focus on the FOMC statement due later in the day at 7:15 pm GMT. While the Fed isn’t expected to raise rates, they may drop hints of when they could possibly hike rates some time in 2010.

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In the absence of top-tier economic reports, the USD snapped back to quiet trading mode yesterday. Price action calmed down as news of Abu Dhabi’s $10 billion support for Dubai World put a halt to the USD buying frenzy.

USD price movement could be a tad more exciting today since the US economic calendar has plenty of reports on deck. The PPI report, due 1:30 pm GMT, is expected to show that producer prices rose by 0.8% in November. Core PPI is projected to rise by 0.3% and rebound from the 0.6% decline in October. The Empire State manufacturing index, also due 1:30 pm GMT, could climb from 23.5 to 24.7, indicating that manufacturing conditions continue to improve.

Later on, TIC long-term purchases due 2:00 pm GMT are slated to drop from $40.7 billion to an estimated $38.3 billion in October. If the actual figure falls below consensus, it implies that demand for US securities has significantly weakened. This could cause traders to lose their appetite for the USD as well.

Moving on, the industrial production report could print a 0.6% increase for November, a more notable improvement over October’s 0.1% uptick. The actual figure is due 2:15 pm GMT.

If these reports fail to turn the heat up on the USD price action, consolidation could be the name of the game for the next couple of days as traders await the release of the FOMC statement on Wednesday. Would Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke take a more hawkish stance, considering how the recent employment and spending reports printed strong numbers? Or would he emphasize the central bank’s pledge to “keep interest rates at a low level for an extended period of time”? Tune in on Wednesday 7:15 pm GMT to find out!

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The US dollar fashioned another broad-based win over all the major currencies in yesterday’s forex action with the dollar index closing with a 0.7% gain. Expect volatility to ensue today because of the Fed’s interest rate decision.

The US equities markets slumped yesterday given some disappointing data that added some selling pressures on the market. The Empire State manufacturing index fell abruptly to 2.6 from 23.5. The TIC long-term purchases in October also dropped to $20.7 billion from $40.7 billion, indicating that foreign demand for US securities has dropped over the period. The only positive account was November’s industrial production which netted a 0.8% gain.

In the meantime, the Fed is due to have its interest rate decision today at 7:15 pm GMT. While the Fed is expected to leave its rate unchanged at 0.25%, bank officials are expected to speak of a potential monetary tightening over the foreseeable future given fresh inflation concerns. PPI for the month of November rose sharply by 1.8% over the 0.8% projection. Now, producer prices are directly linked to inflation since any hike in the input prices are usually transferred to the end users.

US’s headline CPI is only seen to reach 0.4% from 0.3% over the same period. But with the quick rise in November’s PPI, it is also possible for the account to log in a similar increase. If such happens, will it be enough reason for the Fed to take an immediate contractionary policy? My friend Forexgump wrote an interesting article regarding today’s FOMC meeting and decision. See his article here.

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Wow, these dollar bulls are tough. For awhile, it seemed that they were starting to loosen their grips on the market, when the dollar started to give back some of its gains during the Asian session… But when the FOMC rate statement came in, the dollar bulls flexed their muscles once again for the forex world to see.

Although the Fed renewed their promise that they would keep rates at ultra-low levels for an “extended period”, they did say that they would let their stimulus measures expire come early 2010. As for the economy, the Fed said that it still remains weak but the improvements in housing and spending is helping it pick up. Inflation, however, remains constrained. Currency traders saw the statement as dollar positive, especially when the Fed said that they would let their stimulus measures end. Could this be the humble beginnings of the Fed’s exit strategy?

Surprises were kept to a minimum yesterday though, as most of the economic data released came in just as expected.

The consumer price index released showed a 0.4% rise in the price of goods and services purchased bought by consumer November-on-October, which was in line with consensus. The core version of the report, which excludes the price of food and energy, was slightly off-target though. It came in flat, slightly lower than the 0.1% increase initially predicted.

The forecast of the building permits and housing starts report for November was right on the money too, printing an annualized number of 580,000 and 570,000 for November, respectively. Rising building permits and housing starts are usually seen as positive for the domestic currency because they indirectly stimulate the economy. New buildings, for instance, requires workers and the purchase of new furniture.

Okay… moving on to today… there’s the weekly jobless claims report (1:30 pm GMT) and Philadelphia manufacturing index (3:00 pm GMT).

The forecast for the jobless claims report is a figure of 466,000 for the week ending Nov. 12, slightly lower than the 474,000 claims the week before. The jobless claims report counts the number of people who claimed unemployment insurance for the first time in the given week.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia manufacturing index for this month is expected to print a reading of 16.2, down from the 16.7 seen in November. Since the reading is above base line zero, it means that the conditions in the manufacturing industry in the Philadelphia region are improving.

If the reports come in better-than-expected, we could see another round of dollar buying in the foreign exchange markets…

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The dollar continued its winning ways yesterday, as it gained across the board. With this being the last day of the last full week of 2009, will traders take off some of their positions before heading out to finish their Christmas shopping?

Recently, we’ve been seeing the dollar been pushing around other majors, presumably on the fundamental strength. There is now speculation however, that it isn’t purely fundamentals driving the market, but perhaps another run of risk aversion. Equities took a dip yesterday, yet the dollar remained strong, while the yen made some nice moves as well. Not to mention that there have been more fears coming out from the euro zone, UK and Australia…

Stocks falling, strong USD and JPY, bad news from other countries… Hmmm… Sounds like the idea of risk aversion driving the market isn’t as far fetched as it sounds. Just putting it out there…

Mixed data from the US didn’t stop the dollar’s good run yesterday. The bad news was that initial jobless claims rose for the 2nd week in a row, as the report came out worse than expected. Claims for last week rose to 480,000, up from the 473,000 figure last week. Take note that the most recent non farm payrolls report was considered a main catalyst for the recent rise of the USD – if the labor market shows signs of weakness in coming months, the USD might lose some of its punch.

And now, onto the good news! The Philly Fed manufacturing index came out higher than projections, printing a score of 20.4. It was expected to have a reading of 16.2. Scores above 0 indicate expansion; scores below it suggests otherwise. This was extra good news as the New York manufacturing index printed a major drop. This indicates that the drop in manufacturing may be isolated to the New York area.

With no economic data coming out today, we could be in for some quiet trading. Let me warn you though, with the last week of 2009 coming to an end, we could see some profit taking at play. This may lead to some choppy trading, more specifically during the US session. With that said, be careful and hope you enjoy your weekend!

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It’s Christmas week and, as most traders start the holidays early, lower liquidity could mean higher volatility. Yikes! Would the greenback be able to sustain its recent rallies even until the end of 2009?

This week’s schedule contains loads of economic data that could have a huge impact on the greenback’s direction. First, there’s the final Q3 GDP release on Tuesday 1:30 pm GMT. Economic growth is expected to rise by 2.8% as previously reported. Later on, existing home sales report could show a rise from 6.10 million to 6.31 million in November.

On Wednesday, we’ll see the new home sales report along with a bunch of consumer sector data. Just like existing home sales, new home sales are also expected to rise in November. Data on personal spending and personal income are due 1:30 pm GMT and could print a 0.6% and 0.4% increase respectively. University of Michigan is set to report its revised consumer sentiment reading at 2:55 pm GMT. They could announce that consumer sentiment improved from 73.4 to 74.3 in December.

Come Thursday, data on core durable goods orders will be released. A 0.9% rebound from the 1.3% decline in November core durable goods is expected. Watch out for that, along with the weekly jobless claims report, at 1:30 pm GMT.

Then, on Friday, well… It’s Christmas! Traders and bankers step away from the markets to enjoy the holiday. Be mindful though that, as Christmas day draws closer and closer, reduced liquidity could cause volatility to spike.

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It’s Christmas for the dollar indeed as it continued to dominate most of the other major currencies yesterday despite not having any economic reports from the US! Dollar bulls must be crazy partying at this moment!

Today (1:30 pm GMT), US’s final GDP for the third quarter will be due. No change from the 2.8% growth is expected so any positive or negative revisions would definitely shake up the markets.

At 3:00 pm GMT, data on US existing home sales will be released. Sales on November are seen to reach 6,290,000, which is better than the 6,100,000 units sold in October. Nowadays it’s hard to gauge whether an increase in the account would be bullish or bearish for the dollar. Still, given the recent sentiment for the dollar, chances are it will remain in favor at least until the year ends.

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Supported by the strong reading on the existing home sales report, the USD turned up the heat against the majors currencies yesterday… Except versus the CAD, that one’s tough and refuses to melt! Is this more evidence that currency traders are returning to watching fundamentals than risk sentiment? It sure looks like it.

The existing home sales report for November leapt to 6.54 million (annualized number) from 6.09 million in October. The forecast was for existing home sales to increase to 6.24 million only. The surge in sales was apparently caused by the rumor that the tax credit given to first-time home buyers could end soon. As I keep saying in my previous posts, as long as strong US economic data keeps on printing, the USD will be the prime choice of currency traders.

The final GDP, however, wasn’t as rosy. The initial reading of 2.8% growth was revised down slightly to 2.2%, causing dollar buying to ease up a bit.

The US has a lot on its economic cupboard today.

First up will be the personal spending report for November at 1:30 pm GMT. The expectation is that consumer spending increased 0.6%, slightly lower than the 0.7% growth seen the month before. Shortly after, at 2:55 pm GMT, the revisions on the UoM consumer sentiment survey previously released will print. The initial reading of 73.4 is predicted to be revised up to 74.0. Lastly, at 3:00 pm GMT, the report on new home sales for November will be released. The consensus is an annualized number of 442,000, up from October’s 430,000. Given the surprisingly strong existing home sales reading, we could see the new home sales report come in higher-than-forecast too.

Okay, that’s it for today. Be sure to watch these data as better-than-expected readings could push the dollar higher again, especially since currency traders seem to have returned to watching fundamentals than risk sentiment.

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Last week, saw a retracement in the recent USD move, as the dollar lost out on Wednesday and Thursday. After hitting as low as 1.4220, the EURUSD pair jumped right back to test the 1.4400 handle before some good data from the US gave the dollar some support. The pair ultimately ended the week at 1.4357.

The dollar’s rally was halted when a report showed that the annualized figure of new home sales fell to 355,000 – it’s lowest level in 7 months! This marked an 11% drop from October’s figure of 400,000. It seems that end of government tax incentives and the 10.0% unemplyoment rate are showing their effects on the housing market. If this continues in 2010, could we see a prolonging of low interest rates in order to give consumers more incentive to purchase new homes?

Fortunately for dollar bulls, they found some respite when durable goods orders rose by 0.2%. While this was lower than forecasts of a 0.6% increase, it was still much better than October’s decline of 0.6%. In addition, core durable orders – which excludes expensive items like airplanes – rose by 2.0%, almost double the 1.1% expectation. This indicates that businesses are looking to spend, which would be good for the US economy.

In addition, unemployment claims fell to 452,000, down from the previous week’s figure of 480,000. This brought the 4-week moving average down to its lowest level since September 2008. Coupling this with the nice surprise we got from the latest NFP report, could this be a sign that the labor market is stabilizing?

It will be a quiet week in the forex markets, as not much high impact news will be released. Still, better to be informed just in case you decide to trade! Tomorrow, at 3:00 pm GMT, the CB Consumer Confidence index will be released. It is expected to print a reading of 53.3, up from the previous month’s score of 49.5. This would indicate growing confidence amongst consumers.

On Wednesday, the Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) will be available at 2:45 pm GMT. The index’ score is projected to dip to 55.4, down from November’s release of 56.1. Also, on Thursday, weekly unemployment claims are due at 1:30 pm GMT. Claims are expected to rise slightly from last week’s figure to 461,000 this week.

If these report comes in worse than expected, it could be bearish for the USD. It seems that traders are now basing their positions on fundamental strength (or weakness) as opposed to simple risk sentiment. Also, be on the look out for exaggerated moves. With low liquidity in the markets, we could see some unwarranted moves.

With that said, enjoy the rest of the holidays and good luck if you decide to jump in the markets!

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The USD bid farewell to 2009 in a mixed fashion as it gained against the JPY and EUR but lost ground against the rest of the majors. The start of the new year looks exciting, with the US gearing up for a hefty amount of economic data this week. Among the top tier reports due this week are the FOMC minutes and the much-awaited NFP report. Let’s get started, shall we?

Today kicks off with the ISM manufacturing PMI due 3:00 pm GMT. The index is expected to climb from 53.6 to 54.1 in December, suggesting that the manufacturing industry continues to expand at a faster pace. Data on construction spending and ISM manufacturing prices are also due 3:00 pm GMT today. Construction spending is expected to fall by 0.4% in November after holding steady last October. Meanwhile, ISM manufacturing prices are projected to climb from 55.0 to 57.7 in December.

On Tuesday, the US will release its pending home sales report at 3:00 pm GMT. An estimated 2.5% decline could be posted for November, following a strong 3.7% increase in the month prior. Also due on Tuesday are factory orders data, which could print a 0.5% increase. Total vehicle sales and the AIG services index are also set for release then.

Wednesday’s agenda contains the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI. The ADP employment report could show that only 74K jobs were lost in December, a much better figure than the 169K in net job losses for November. Does this hint at another stronger than expected NFP figure? We’ll just have to wait and see! The ISM non-manufacturing PMI could finally cross over the 50.0 mark and land at 50.5, indicating that the non-manufacturing industry is expanding. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, due 7:00 pm GMT, could cause some volatility in the currency markets. Recall that, for the latter part of 2009, the Fed has been relatively more hawkish with their monetary policy stance. More upbeat comments regarding the US economy could lead to more USD buying.

Moving on… Thursday has the usual weekly jobless claims on tap. Initial unemployment claims are expected to increase slightly, from 432K to 449K in the previous week. However, this report is slated to have a minimal impact on price action since traders are all eyes and ears on the NFP report due Friday. If employment continues to increase, the USD could continue amassing gains. Still, watch out for extra volatility around the release of the report at 1:30 pm GMT. The fireworks might not be over yet!

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The new year started positively for the dollar bears as the USD slumped against most of the other majors in yesterday’s trading. US equities markets were off on a good start with Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 winning 1.50%, 1.73%, and 1.60%, respectively. Is the inverse relationship between USD and equities on track again? We’ll see in the coming days and months.

The better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI for the month of December supported buying interests in the US equities markets. Consequently, the dollar fell as the good old ‘risk appetite’ appeared to be yesterday’s theme. The account exceeded expectations with a score of 55.9. The consensus was only 54.1.

Today (3:00 pm GMT), data on US pending home sales and factory orders in November will be released. Pending home sales are seen to have contracted by 2.3% after posting a 3.7% gain during the month prior. Factory orders, on the other hand, are projected to have increased again by 0.5% on top of September’s 0.6% gain. Between the two accounts, the former has the heavier weight in swaying the markets so a drop in the former’s figure could be bullish for the dollar, assuming that the inverse relationship that I mentioned earlier will hold.

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After giving up some ground last Monday, the dollar bulls finally decided gussy up yesterday. The dollar bulls also found it helpful that equity markets failed to sustain their bullish momentum from the day before.

News from the economic front were mixed through.

November’s pending home sales report, which was predicted to print a 2.3% decrease in sales, came out much worse. It showed that sales dropped 16.0%, opposite the 3.9% gain (revised up from 3.7%) seen the month before. On a brighter note, factory orders for November grew 1.1%, more than twice the 0.5% increase initially predicted. Digging deeper into the report would reveal that the jump in orders was primarily caused by increased demand for business equipment by companies.

Today could prove to be an exciting one for news traders out there as the ADP non-farm employment report, which is considered as a good leading indicator of the NFP report coming out on Friday, will be released. The consensus is that net job losses amounted to 74,000 in December, down from the 169,000 losses seen in November. If a lower figure comes out, we could see the dollar gain further support. The actual figure will be shown at 1.15 pm GMT.

Following shortly after is the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3:00 pm GMT. The expectation is a reading of 50.5 for December, up from the 48.7 seen in November. The non-manufacturing PMI gauges whether the non-manufacturing industry is growing or shrinking using a boom/bust scale. A reading above 50.0 means the industry is growing.

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Yowza! After it looked like it was on pace for another day of wins, the dollar slipped and fell late in the US session. It appears that risk appetite remains strong, which explains why traders are looking for higher yielding currencies.

The dollar also took a hit once the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting were released. Apparently, the big shots over at the Fed are undecided about when to withdraw economic stimulus and raise interest rates. In fact, one member even suggested further expansion of quantitative easing methods! This came after last month’s statement which was relatively positive and indicated that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than expected. Talk about bursting a bubble!

The ADP non-farm employment change report showed a decrease in job losses, with a figure of 84,000. While this missed projections of 74,000 job cuts, it was still much better than last month’s revised figure of 145,000. It also marked the fewest job cuts since the recession began. I keep hearing whispers that the NFP report due later this week may actually show that job losses have ended this past December. Let’s hope so!

In other news, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in slightly worse than expected, printing a reading of 50.1 for the month of December. Expectations were for a rise from November’s score of 48.7 to 50.5. This indicates that the service industry is still lagging behind the manufacturing sector.

Today, weekly unemployment claimswill be released at 1:30 pm GMT. Jobless claims are expected to be at 449,000 for last week. While this is normally medium to high impact event, I suspect we may see some quiet trading if traders decide to sit on the sidelines ahead of the NFP report due tomorrow at 1:30 pm GMT. Also, be on the look out as a couple of FOMC members will be speaking over the next couple of days. Given the recent developments of the latest FOMC meeting, perhaps we will hear more clamors for the “need” of further economic stimulus.

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As traders held their breath in anticipation for the release of today’s NFP report, most US dollar pairs shifted to consolidation mode. Only the Yen gave way to the greenback, bringing the USDJPY to a high of 93.41 during the US session.

This week’s unemployment claims came in better than expected, printing 434K in first time jobless claims instead of the estimated 449K. This upbeat jobs indicator, along with the previously released ADP employment figure, builds up expectations for strong NFP numbers. Only 3K in net job losses are expected for December, implying that the US labor market is on the path to recovery. Given the recent bias towards fundamentals, the US dollar could react positively if the actual figure meets or beats the consensus. The US labor market could actually print a positive NFP reading this time… Who knows? My buddy Forex Gump has plenty of insights on the upcoming NFP report and you might want to check it out here.

Also due today is the unemployment rate, which is slated to climb a notch from 10.0% to 10.1% in December. This is due along with the December NFP reading at 1:30 pm GMT. Keep an eye out for any revisions on the previously reported figures since this could also cause a ruckus in the currency markets, particularly for the EURUSD and USDJPY pairs.