Daily Economic Commentary: United States

Trading Discussion News and Economy
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After several days of prevailing over the other major currencies, the greenback finally took a breather to close at a distant second yesterday. The rebound in the US markets led investors to buy higher yielding currencies, leaving the dollar on the sidelines.

Economic data in the US was mixed yesterday. The ISM manufacturing PMI topped the 55.5 forecast with a score of 58.4 in January. Personal spending on December, however, came in below the market’s 0.3% estimate with only a 0.2% gain. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index in December came in line with the 0.1% expectation.

The rally in the US capitals markets was helped by the rebound in commodity prices. Gold closed with a 1.9% gain to settle at $1,105 per ounce. Silver also rose by 2.9% to $16.66 per ounce. Similarly, crude oil likewise posted a 2.1% gain to close at $74.13 per barrel.

Data on US pending home sales in December will be issued later at 3:00 pm GMT. The figure in December is seen to have risen by 0.4% after falling sharply by 16.0% in November. The drop in November was due to the deadline of the government’s tax incentive program for new home buyers. A rise in December’s number could indicate that demand for homes has at least stabilized during the period despite the lack of rebates given by the government. Such could push the US markets on the positive territory again.

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Thanks for the reply. But then do you believe that positive data from the upcoming Pending Home Sales would raise dollar value or raise stocks? Because some have speculated that in the current market, either bad or good U.S. news data would strengthen the dollar, suggesting that good data would be fundamentally strong for the dollar because it further indicates recovery (and pressures the FOMC for a rate change), while bad data would cause global risk aversion sentiment, and being the low-yielding reserve currency, the dollar would still benefit.

Don’t know how accurate this assessment is.

But the consensus right now seems to be that even with the bank rate decisions happening this week, the biggest market mover will still likely be Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change report.

Do you believe a better-than-expected NFP number would help or hurt the dollar, given the current market? Historically, the market has almost always reacted fundamentally to the NFP (meaning the dollar would benefit in the end from positive NFP data), and given where the market is now, I would also be inclined to think that a positive NFP would hold the same effect on the dollar (positive) as Friday’s strong GDP release.

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hi im a newbie to forex. i notice yesterday there is a sudden increase in usd/jpy by about 90pips at around 10.00am 1/2/10. but the important news release which i know, US ism manufacturing is supposed to release at 1.00pm . does anyone know why there is an increase before the news release? and at about 1.00pm usd/jpy market is quiet. sorry for the poor english, hope you can understand my enquiry.

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@pkrillo

In my humble opinion, I think we’re currently in the process of “returning to fundamentals” so better-than-expected results could give a lot of buying support for the dollar, especially with the strong bias in buying dollars going around!

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For the second day in a row yesterday, the dollar gave up a bit of ground versus most major currencies. From the looks of it, the dollar’s losses for the past two days was simply corrective, and the bias in buying the currency remains… well, intact.

The report on pending home sales yesterday revealed that sales jumped by 1.0% in December, more than two times the 0.4% increase initially expected. Still, the unexpected rise in sales in December wasn’t enough to make up for the huge 16.4% drop seen the month before. Now that the $8,000 tax rebate program for first-time home buyers has expired, I think the number we saw, even if it did not make up for the losses in November, gives evidence that demand for homes are starting to recover.

For today, watch out for two important reports: the ADP non-farm employment change (1:15 pm GMT) and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT).

The ADP non-farm employment change, which is typically used as a preview for the NFP report on Friday, is predicted to show 40K net jobs were lost in January, half the job losses seen in December. Given the strength of the dollar recently, a better-than-expected result on the ADP report could give the chance for dollar bulls to stage another stellar rally.

On the other hand, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to print a reading of 51.1 in January, which is an improvement from the 49.8 reading seen the the month before. If forecast holds, it would mark the third straight month of increase. A rising reading is usually seen as bullish for the domestic currency because it indicates that business activity is picking up, which could lead to more jobs.

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I sincerely hope you are right about that! Although the dollar has been falling since yesterday, there definitely has not been that much movement. It took EUR/USD an entire two days to make up for the losses it sustained the hours after Friday’s GDP release.

My conclusion would be that this has indeed been corrective. (That’s from the technical perspective) From the fundamental perspective, I would guess that it’s been mostly spectators reacting to the USD news of today and yesterday morning.

The major, long-term investors (whom I would assume bought USD on Friday following the GDP) are likely waiting for the much more important news releases tomorrow, Thursday (ECB conference), and of course, Friday.

Non-Manufacturing PMI should be more important than yesterday’s PMI, and of course the ADP employment change will be a precursor for what will likely happen on Friday.

With any luck, these past two days will have simply been technical speculators shorting the dollar after it had reached new highs on Friday (a market-sustained correction/retracement). In other words, I do not believe fundamentals have [I]been[/I] the cause for the dollar trading lower at all, and that fundamentals will not start impacting the market for real until tomorrow morning. Hopefully the real, major investors will start moving the dollar back up to new highs following tomorrow’s data release.

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Yeehawww! The dollar made like a cowboy and rounded up all the other majors in yesterday’s trading session! The question is, is the dollar gaining because of fundamental strength or simply risk aversion?

We got some mixed results from US economic reports yesterday. The bad news was that ISM non-manufacturing PMI (otherwise known as the services PMI report) came in to have a reading of 50.5. While this was an improvement from the previous month’s reading of 49.8, it didn’t meet expectations of a score of 51.1.This indicates that while the manufacturing sector is doing quite well, other industries aren’t quite as lucky.

Now, the good news is that the ADP non-farm employment change report showed that job losses came in better than expected, as only 22,000 jobs were cut in January. It was expected that 31,000 jobs were lost. What’s more is that last December’s figures were revised to show a decline of just 61,000!

With the NFP report coming out later this week, could we be in for an upside surprise? The NFP report is boldly predicting that 13,000 jobs were added to the economy last January. If the report meets consensus, this may just boost the dollar to end the week on a high note!

Today, we’ve got more labor data coming out as the weekly unemployment claims figures will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. Claims have failed to hit consensus the past 3 weeks, so watch out for any downside surprises. It is expected that jobless claims were at 461,000 last week.

Later at 7:00 pm GMT, FOMC member Thomas Hoenig will be speaking. In the past, Mr. Hoenig’s words wouldn’t have caused much ruckus in the markets, but lately, he’s been making a name for himself by sticking his neck out and saying that the Fed should change its stance and hike interest rates sooner rather than later. Quite a statement eh? Anyway, watch out for any more comments, especially since GDP figures came in even better than expected last week.

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“Give them nothing! But take from them everything!” yelled the mighty Spartan-like greenback as it waged war against the higher-yielding currencies yesterday. After the bloodshed, the greenback ended higher against most majors, except for the unyielding Yen.

Marching under the flag of risk aversion, the greenback’s strength seemed unstoppable. Resurfacing credit woes in Europe, particularly those of Greece, Portugal, and Spain, seemed to scare the living daylights out of traders, forcing them to seek sanctuary under the safe-havens.

Aside from that, most of the US economic reports came in weaker than expected yesterday. Weekly jobless claims were worse than consensus, printing 480,000 in initial claims instead of the estimated 461,000. It also didn’t help that labor costs fell 4.4% during the fourth quarter of 2009, almost thrice as much as the 1.5% decline posted in the previous period. The only upbeat report from the US was the factory orders data, which showed that bookings were up by 1.2% in December. This was the indicator’s fourth month in consecutive increases.

Better brace yourselves for the NFP report due today. The report could show an improvement in the US labor market, with the January NFP figure landing in the green, eventually coaxing investors to pursue more risk. The consensus is an increase of 10,000 in net hiring for the month, a rebound over the 85,000 in job losses seen last December. The NFP reading actually turned out positive in November, when an upward revision revealed that 4,000 jobs were added during the month. However, traders are more concerned whether this improvement could be sustained. Recent labor indicators, such as the ADP non-farm employment report and the employment components of the ISM surveys, seem to hint at a positive NFP figure… but we’ll just have to wait and see. In the meantime, check out my buddy Forex Gump’s thoughts on the upcoming NFP report then tune in for the actual report at 1:30 pm GMT.

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Well, the dollar continued to make its mark on the markets by once again trumping the other majors last Friday. And despite the mild rally in the US equities markets, the dollar was still able to keep its head above water. The question now is will the dollar be able to maintain its top position this week?

US firms unexpectedly slashed 20,000 more payrolls in January, causing a lot of volatility in the forex market. Investors were projecting a 10,000 uptick in employment change. The surprise pullback, however, in the country’s unemployment rate gave the investors something to cheer about. The unemployment rate for the same period surprisingly dropped to 9.7% from 10.0%. Workers’ average hourly earnings also enjoyed a 0.3% gain during the period.

The US’s negative trade balance in December, which will be released on Wednesday, is expected to improve slightly to -$35.7 billion from -$36.4 billion. The government’s Federal budget balance in January is likewise seen pick up to -$66.2 billion from -$91.9 billion. The recovery in the said figures could further give the dollar some lift.

The country’s retail sales plus its weekly initial jobless claims numbers will be on deck this Thursday. Core retail sales in January are expected to register an uptick of 0.4% after losing 0.2% during the month prior. The headline sales account is also projected to have logged in the same gain after declining by 0.3% in December. On a separate report, 458,000 initial jobless claims are expected to be the count for the week ending February 6. This tally of course is better than the 480,000 mark of the previous week.

Lastly, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in February will be on tap on Friday. The index is seen to increase slightly to 74.7 from 74.4. An increase in this account could still support the dollar’s climb especially if the overall market sentiment remains to be pro-dollar this week.

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The lack of hard-hitting economic data kept the dollar trading within tight ranges against other major currencies yesterday. The dollar was bought up early on during the Asian session but buying momentum faded once the European trading session went rolling along.

From the looks of it, however, the dollar is beginning to retrace some of its winnings from last week. With the current pro-dollar sentiment, could this be another chance for dollar bulls to buy at a cheaper price? Well, I don’t know for certain but judging from the dollar’s price action last week, we could see the dollar rally furiously once it hits major resistance and support levels.

For today, event risk is minimal as only the wholesales inventories report is due. The expectation is that wholesales inventories grew by 0.5% in December, lower than the 1.5% increase from the month before. Historically though, the report garners little attention from traders as results tend to vary a lot each month. In any case, the actual results will come out later today, at 3:00 pm GMT.

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Risk appetite was strong yesterday, causing the dollar to fall against most other majors on news coming out from the EU summit. The EURUSD rose over 100 pips to close at 1.3779. Now, the question is, is this really a shift in risk sentiment?

Traders reacted positively to speculation that European leaders would start to take action and help Greece with its debt problems. ECB head Jean Claude Trichet actually attended the summit, which some market participants took as a sign that action would begin to take place. This sparked risk appetite in the markets, which caused the dollar to give up much of its gains from last week.

Wholesale inventories data revealed yesterday that inventories fell by 0.8% last December after it was expected to have risen by 0.5%. Remember, when inventories fall, it means that there is an opportunity for manufacturers to pick up production as wholesalers have to place more orders. This indicates that orders could pick up in coming months.

We could be in for some wild moves today as trade balance figures (1:30 pm GMT) and the Fed budget balance will be released today. The trade deficit is expected to come in at $35.8 billion, down from the previous month’s figure of $36.8 billion. Meanwhile, the budget deficit is expected to have been at just $66.2 billion in January. While this figure may seem large, it would be a big improvement from $100 billion figures we were seeing in the months prior.

Also, before I forget, Fed main man Ben Bernanke will be speaking before the House Financial Services Committee today at 3:00 pm GMT. Bernanke will be speaking about the Fed’s plans regarding quantitative easing measures, so I suggest you try to listen up on this report as it could signal the direction the Fed wants to take in the coming months. If he indicates that the Fed will be raising interest rates sooner than expected, it may just boost optimism towards the dollar.

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Big Ben took the greenback for a wild ride when he talked about exit strategies and the Fed’s monetary outlook during his speech yesterday. Most high-yielding currencies struggled to hold on to their recent gains but the pound failed to do so.

Bernanke said that the Fed was considering lowering the discount rate, which is the rate charged to banks for loans from the Fed. Recall that, a few years back, the discount rate was set one percentage point higher than the federal funds rate. At that time, bank lending became constricted, forcing the Fed to narrow the spread by half a percentage point. Bernanke is hopeful that lowering the discount rate further would eventually result to higher liquidity in the markets.

But before any speculations on a sooner interest rate hike could take hold, Bernanke reverted to his usual cautious stance in saying that the Fed would still keep interest rates at a low level for an extended period. Still, many market participants saw the lowering of the discount rate as a sign that the Fed is taking steps towards a full-fledged exit strategy.

On the economic front, the trade balance report released yesterday was a huge disappointment. The US trade deficit widened from $36.4 billion to $40.2 billion in December as imports far outpaced exports. However, components of the report showed that exports are still growing at a strong pace.

Today, traders turn their attention to the weekly jobless claims report and the Federal budget balance. Weekly jobless claims, which will be reported at 1:30 pm GMT, could print 460K in first-time unemployment claims for the week. Meanwhile, the Federal budget balance could show that the deficit narrowed from $91.9 billion to $66.2 billion in January.

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The US dollar traded mixed yesterday as it gained over the euro and the swissy but lost vis-à-vis the other majors. In the US, the late slide in the dollar index supported the US capitals markets’ push. The broader S&P 500 was able to log in 0.97% gain which brought back some risk taking at least in yesterday’s session.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 6 printed a better-than-expected 440,000 count versus the 460,000 estimate. The drop in the number of applications for jobless benefits signals show that companies are already laying off fewer employees. Firms are then expected to start adding more jobs as they continue to replenish their inventories.

The relatively positive result, however, did not cause much movement on the greenback.

Today (1:30 pm GMT), the US’s retail sales figures will be reported. Core sales are seen to have posted an uptick of 0.4% in December after falling short by 0.2% during the prior month. Similarly, the headline account is also expected to have gained by 0.4% after losing by 0.3%.

The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index for February is also due later at 2:55 pm GMT. The index is seen to be at 74.8 from 74.4 (positively revised from 72.8).

Upticks in the above accounts could support the markets’ upward move yesterday. Though, we could still see a mixed trading as traders close their books to end the week.

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It has been a wild ride for the dollar, gaining and losing throughout last week on shifts in risk sentiment and news on Greece’s debt problem. Still, at the end of the week, the dollar was able to close out positively against most major currencies.

The retail sales report last Friday posted positively surprising results. It showed that sales increased at a much faster pace than initially expected, gaining 0.5% in January. The consensus was only for only for a 0.4% increase. The core version of the report, which excludes vehicle sales, likewise came in better-than-expected, printing an unexpected rise of 0.6%. The results were certainly a welcome improvement from the negative figures seen the month before.

The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment survey for February failed to meet expectations though. The survey printed a reading of 73.7, lower than January’s revised 74.4 reading (up from 72.8).

Looking ahead the week, expect to see an overabundance of economic data.

Tomorrow, at 2:00 pm GMT the TIC flows report will be released. The TIC flows report shows the net difference in value between securities (the broad term used to describe stocks, government obligations, corporate bonds, etc,) bought by the US and those bought by foreigners from the US. The forecast is a positive balance of 50.3 billion dollars in December, down from 126.8 billion dollars the month before. This indicates that more securities were probably sold than purchased by the US.

On Wednesday, the report on buildings permits (1:30 pm GMT) and the FOMC meeting minutes (7:00 pm GMT) are due. The building permits report measures the annualized number of building permits issued in a certain period while the FOMC meeting minutes details the events that happened during the most recent interest rate decision. The forecast is that building permits in January fell to 630,000 from 650,000 the month before.

On Thursday, there’s the US producer price index (1:30 pm GMT), the weekly unemployment claims (1:30 pm GMT) and the Philadelphia manufacturing index (3:00 pm GMT). The PPI for January is expected to show an increase of 0.8% while the unemployment claims report is predicted to show that 445,000 people claimed jobless insurance for the week ending in Feb. 13. The Philadelphia manufacturing index is predicted to edge higher to 17.2.

On Friday, there’s the core consumer price index (1:30 pm GMT). The consensus is that the prices of consumer goods and services rose 0.2% in January, up the 0.1% in December. Despite the uptick, it is still very low, indicating that inflation probably won’t be a major concern for the Fed for the mean time.

As you can see, there are a lot of data coming out… Couple this with all the Greece debt talk, this week could bring in a lot of volatility for the dollar!

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With US traders and banks on a holiday due to President’s day, liquidity was low and trading was pretty quiet. The EURUSD traded within a range of a measly 60 pips, while similar movement was seen in other pairs.

With more data coming out everywhere today, we could see a lot more volatility in the markets, especially after yesterday’s sloth-like movement.

Tonight at 1:30 pm GMT, the Empire State manufacturing index will be released. The index measures economic conditions in the New York area based on the sentiment of local manufacturers. The report is expected to print a reading of 17.9, which would be a slight improvement over last month’s score of 15.9. Take note, scores above 0.0 indicate that business conditions are improving.

Later on at 2:00 pm GMT, the TIC Long- Term Purchases report is due. This reports measures the net difference in long term securities (basically financial assets like stocks and bonds) purchased by US citizens and foreigners. Traders look at this report as a signal of demand for the dollar, as investors need US dollars in order to purchase US securities.

The report is expected to print a balance of $50.3 billion, down from $126.8 billion the previous month. Take note that this report varies a lot, so the large drop doesn’t necessarily mean that demand for the dollar is waning. After all, the dollar has been on a major rally as of late as risk aversion has been dominating market sentiment.

FOMC member Thomas Hoenig will also be speaking today at 5:00 pm GMT. Remember Hoenig? He’s the dude who said that the Fed should look to raise interest rates sooner rather than later, even though all his colleagues suggest otherwise. It’ll be interesting to see whether he has a similar tone later when he delivers a speech about government debt.

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Risk appetite came back in full swing yesterday, forcing the safe-haven greenback to bow down to the other majors. Strong economic data from the US encouraged investors to take on more risk and pursue higher-yielding assets.

The Empire State manufacturing index exceeded expectations and surged from 15.9 to 24.9 in February. This marks the indicator’s fastest pace of increase in the past four months, indicating that the expansion in the manufacturing industry has been significantly strong during the month. Components of the indicator show that the rise was spurred by an improvement in employment and an increase in sales.

The TIC long-term purchases report also printed better than expected results when it showed that foreign purchases of US securities amounted to $63.3 billion in December, a bit higher than the consensus of $50.3 billion. However, the December figure was lower than the previously reported amount of $126.4 billion in November, signifying that international demand for US assets has slowed. The decline was seen to be a result of China’s dumping of US assets for the second straight month.

We’ll find out whether the US dollar rally would be here to stay upon the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting at 7:00 pm GMT today. The previous FOMC minutes showed that the committee was a bit upbeat about the nation’s economic prospects but a speech by FOMC member Hoenig yesterday hinted that the Fed’s moves are still restricted by fiscal problems.

A bunch of economic data are also in store for today. First, there’s the building permits report due at 1:30 pm GMT. It could show that building permits for January total to 0.63 million. The housing starts report, also due 1:30 pm GMT, could post a 0.58 million figure for January. Then, import prices could report a 0.9% increase in January after staying flat in December.

Later on, the US will release its capacity utilization rate and industrial production data. Industrial production is projected to rise by 0.7% in January after printing a 0.6% uptick in the previous month. Meanwhile, the capacity utilization rate is expected to edge from 72.0% to 72.6% during the month. Watch out for these reports at 2:15 pm GMT.

Lastly, the Federal budget balance is set for release along with the FOMC minutes at 7:00 pm GMT. A deficit of $44.2 billion is expected for the month of January, much smaller than the $91.9 deficit seen last December. Judging from the recent run of risk appetite, better than expected data from the US could push investors to move away from the safe-havens and pursue higher-yielding currencies.

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The US capital markets managed to advance for a second straight session despite the rally in the US dollar index. The dollar index booked a 1.0% gain over a basket of other currencies, overshadowing its 0.9% loss during the previous day.

Good US economic results in January, upbeat earnings forecast from Deere & Co. (the leading manufacturer of agricultural machineries in the world), and a GDP forecast upgrade by the FOMC kept the mood positive during the US session.

US building permits came in a tad lower than 0.63 million consensus with a 0.62 million score. Housing starts, however, came in slightly better at 0.59 million versus the 0.58 million estimate. Import prices and industrial production also came in better than expected with gains of 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively, while the capacity utilization rate was on target with the 72.6% gauge.

As mentioned, the FOMC meeting minutes showed that the Fed has raised their GDP forecast in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.2%. Despite becoming more optimistic about the economy’s outlook, the Fed deemed that a low interest rate is still needed to support growth.

Today, several top tier economic reports are again due later in the US. First up are the US’s PPI figures which will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. The headline PPI is expected to show a 0.8% uptick in January after gaining by 0.2% in December. The core account is also seen to be at 0.2% after coming in flat at 0.0% during the month prior.

Initial jobless claims data for the week ending February 13 is next in line. Claims for the said week are seen to be at 440,000, which is the same count as the previous week. The report will be released at 1:30 pm GMT as well.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which will be issued at 3:00 pm GMT, is projected to have improved to 17.2 in February from 15.2. The recent upturn in US retail sales could positively reflect on the country’s manufacturing activity. Such of course is good for the economy but could be bearish for the USD in the short term.

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Speculation that the Fed could hike rates earlier than expected spurred currency traders to buy up the dollar late in the US session yesterday. The dollar index, which pits the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is treading the 81.60 region, its highest level since June 2009.

Data that came out of the US yesterday was mixed.

The producer price index, which measures the change in prices of goods and services sold by producers, jumped by 1.4%, higher than initially predicted. This marked the fourth straight month of increase, suggesting that inflationary pressures in the US is starting to pick up. Generally, a rising producer price index leads to higher inflation because increased costs by businesses are passed on to their customers.

The Philadelphia manufacturing index also exceeded expectations and climbed to 17.6 in February from 15.2 the month before. Since the result was higher than the base line reading of zero, it means that the conditions in the manufacturing industry in Philadelphia are improving. Digging deeper into the index would reveal that it was the huge upticks in the components related to employment, new orders and shipments that helped the index post better-than-expected results.

The weekly unemployment claims report failed to follow suit though. It showed that 473,000 people claimed for jobless insurance for the week ending in Feb. 13, higher than last the number of claims seen the week before.

Early today, the Fed surprised the markets when they decided to raise the discount rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The discount rate is an interest rate the Fed charges banks and other financial institutions that borrow reserves from it. Note, however, that the federal funds rate, which is the benchmark interest rate for consumers and companies who borrow from commercial banks still remains unchanged at 0.25%. According to the statement, the increase in the discount rate was done to encourage interbank lending, instead of banks borrowing directly from the Fed.

We’ll find out whether the dollar’s rally will push through until the end of the week upon the release of the US consumer price index (CPI) at 1:30 pm GMT today. January’s CPI, which measures the monthly percentage change of consumer goods and services, is predicted to show a 0.3% increase in prices, higher than December’s 0.1% rise. The core version of the report, which excludes food and energy prices in its computation, is show a climb of 0.2%. If the actual figures come out higher, we could see the dollar start edging higher against other major currencies again.

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It looked like the dollar was going for a home run but was forced for a double after USD buying didn’t make it over the fence. After trading as low as 1.3444, the pair retraced back to near its weekly opening price to close at 1.3595. Is the dollar rallying coming to an end?

Last Friday, consumer price index figures were released, with both headline and core data failing to meet expectations. Consumer prices rose by 0.2%, pumped up by rising gasoline prices. Still, this didn’t hit expectations of a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, core CPI fell by 0.1%, after it was expected to rise by 0.2%.

If inflation continues to remain subdued, it’ll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts. Remember, the Fed raised the discount rate last week, giving rise to speculation that they would raise other interest rates. If however, prices remain steady, could we see an extended pause for hiking interest rates?

Tomorrow, at 3:00 pm GMT, the CB consumer confidence index will be released. The index is expected to have dipped from 55.9 last month to 55.0. This would indicate the consumer confidence is still rising, but at a slower pace than before.

The big news coming out later this week are the new home sales and core dubable goods orders report due on Wednesday and Thursday. The annualized rate of new home sales is expected to rise slightly to 350,000, while core durable goods orders are seen to risen by 1.2% in January. If these reports come out better than expected, it may just boost sentiment towards the dollar.

Watch out also on Wednesday, when both Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner will be delivering speeches. With those two being big shots (hey, Bernanke was Time’s “Person of the Year” in 2009 ya know!?), their words normally keep traders on their heels. Watch out for any surprises and big moves in the markets.

Lastly, we’ll end the week with some fireworks as preliminary GDP figures are due on Friday. Will the US shows its might once again and post growth of 5.6%?