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#PMI’ Indexes for the services sector have exceeded expectations in almost all countries – and all are showing #growth. The final euro-zone Services PMI for August scored 53.5 points – better than expected and above 50 – reflecting growth.
However, Manufacturing PMIs have published on Monday continued showing contraction with scores below 50. Most worryingly, Germany’s industrial sector suffers more than others.
The US #ISM Manufacturing PMI was supposed to be a hint toward Friday’s #NonFarm Payrolls. Instead, the drop to 49.1 points – the lowest in three years and reflecting contraction. Fears of a #recession are rising in the world’s largest economy – in large part due to the #TradeWar with China.
If the #US is struggling with the world’s second-largest economy, #Germany will be under pressure due to falling exports to China. US weakness is not good news for #Europe.,
With the clock ticking down to the all-important #ECB decision on September 12, the #hawks are coming out against restarting the #BondBuying scheme. #MadisMüller, Governor of the Estonian central bank, joined his German colleagues in saying that markets expect too much. A limited stimulus packed from the Frankfurt-based institution has helped push the #euro #higher.
However, the ECB also has its share of doves – first and foremost President Mario Draghi. While Draghi is stepping down in November, the nominee to succeed him, Christine Lagarde – testifying today – is no less dovish. She reiterated the need for accommodative monetary policy.
Also across the Atlantic, the Fed is split. Some members prefer no cut while others would like to slash rates by 50 basis point in on September 18. And also in Washington, the final word belongs to the Chair. Jerome Powell will speak on Friday and will have the most significant impact.
EUR/USD #Technical #Analysis
EUR USD technical analysis September 4 2019
#EURUSD still suffers from downside momentum on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (#RSI) is above 30 – thus not reflecting oversold conditions anymore. Moreover, the currency pair continues trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages.
#Support awaits at 1.0960, which was Friday’s low. It is followed by 1.0926 – Tuesday’s fresh 2019 trough. Next, we are at levels last seen in 2017. These include the 1.0900, 1.0820, and 1.0780.
#Resistance awaits at the previous 2019 low of 1.1027. Next, 1.1050 provided support last week and now works as resistance. It is followed by 1.1090 and 1.1115.