#WeekAhead #Forex #Followme #SocialTrading
Hi Traders, happy new week!
“He who seizes the right moment is the right man.”
Here is this week forex calendar highlights:
01:30 China PBoC Interest Rate Decision
reaction to Brexit vote and Canadian elections
08:00 EuropeECB Bank Lending Survey
12:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
14:30 Crude oil inventories
07:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Oct)
07:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
08:00 Eurozone PMIs
11:45 ECB Deposit Rate Decision
11:45 ECB Interest Rate Decision
12:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Sep)
12:30 ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
06:00 German GfK Consumer Climate
08:00 German Ifo Business Climate
The GBP/USD was continuing to find buyers late in the day on Friday, with investors reacting to some UK media reports that said Boris Johnson had secured enough backing to support his deal. However, what matters is the actual votes in the ‘Super Saturday’ sitting.
#Labour is strongly advising its #MPs to oppose the deal, and most, perhaps all, are likely to do so. 10 ‘no’ votes appear all but inevitable from MPs of Ireland’s DUP party that has also vowed to oppose the deal. So, the fate of Boris Johnson’s plan hangs partly on Tory pro-Brexit MPs who have repeatedly voted down previous deals
The #PM is busily making pleading calls to MPs ‘across the Commons’ as the weekend approaches, says Downing Street. There’s really no telling how persuasive he will be, till the result of the vote is known. It’s a recipe for investors to execute only the most necessary moves in advance, before a possible ‘manic Monday’ in Saturday’s wake
Should the deal get the majority required in Parliament for the #UK to leave the #EU in an orderly fashion, we could expect sterling to rally and the #FTSE to jump higher in a knee-jerk reaction, similar to what we saw on Thursday’s announcement of the Brexit deal. However, the stronger pound could eventually weigh on the #FTSE given the index’s high percentage of multinationals earning abroad which will be hit by the less favorable exchange rate.
Should Boris Johnson’s selling skills fail him, and the deal does not pass through #Parliament we can expect the pound and the FTSE to sell off sharply, the reverse of Thursday’s reaction, with the FTSE then potentially rebounding as it responds to sterling’s decline.
It will be #MarioDraghi’s last policy meeting as the head of the #ECB, and having just re-introduced #QE at the last meeting he will likely go out with a whimper. The euro has appreciated since the ECB’s last meeting, partly because of Brexit optimism and also due to a weakening dollar. Also, raised hopes over a US-China trade resolution, which could boost Chinese demand for Eurozone exports, has also supported the single currency. Furthermore, several ECB policymakers have criticized Draghi’s renewed bond-buying program and called for a change of strategy when Christine Lagarde takes over next month. The probability of further policy loosening has therefore fallen.