Daily Forex Market by FXCC

alayoua · December 6, 2013, 4:41am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 06 2013

NFP day could witness a surprise ‘jobs’ number

Friday sees Japan’s leading indicators published, France’s trade balance is expected in at €-5.1bn, Germany’s factory orders are expected to fall by -0.4%. Canada’s unemployment number is expected to rise to 7.0%. Non-farm jobs created are expected in at circa 184K, with the USA unemployment expected in at 7.2%. Personal spending in the USA is expected in up 0.4%, whilst the preliminary university of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment expected in at 76.2. Later on Friday sees FOMC member Evans hold court, with the BOJ governor Kuroda holding court later in the evening. Late Friday evening-early Saturday morning China’s trade balance is published. The euro advanced 0.6 percent to $1.3671 late in New York on Thursday after rising to $1.3677, the strongest level since Oct. 31st. The single currency was little changed at 139.10 yen after weakening as much as 0.5 percent. The dollar fell 0.6 percent to 101.74 yen. The euro rose to a five-week high versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi refrained from introducing further monetary stimulus. Sterling slumped 0.9 percent to 83.74 pence per euro late London time Thursday, the biggest decline since March 7th. The pound dropped 0.4 percent to $1.6315 after climbing to $1.6443 on Dec. 2nd, the highest since August 2011. The DJIA equity index future is at the time of writing down 0.43%, SPX future down 0.44%, NASDAQ down 0.11%. STOXX future is down 1.24%, DAX down 0.50%, CAC down 1.21%, FTSE future down 0.34%.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | USA. Unemployment Rate (Nov)
2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Nov)
2013-12-06 13:30 GMT | Canada. Net Change in Employment (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-06 04:45 GMT | Yen slides on GPIF headlines
2013-12-06 04:45 GMT | EUR/USD not relenting on upside – which shows just how strong Europe is perceived to be
2013-12-06 03:38 GMT | USD/JPY continues downside correction despite good US numbers from Thursday
2013-12-06 00:12 GMT | GBP/USD pulling back after touching upside projected target at 1.6425 this week

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36742 LOW 1.36566 BID 1.36608 ASK 1.36611 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed yesterday offers key resistance level at 1.3676 (R1). In case of price appreciation above it our focus would be shifted to the higher targets at 1.3692 (R2) and 1.3709 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.3640 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.3621 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.3599 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3676, 1.3692, 1.3709
Support Levels: 1.3640, 1.3621, 1.3599

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63414 LOW 1.6319 BID 1.63243 ASK 1.63249 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.6340 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6369 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.6392 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.6310 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.6289 (S2) and 1.6266 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6340, 1.6369, 1.6392
Support Levels: 1.6310, 1.6289, 1.6266

USDJPY :
HIGH 102.167 LOW 101.631 BID 102.114 ASK 102.117 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Currently price deviates from its initial downside extension. Clearance of our next resistance level at 102.30 (R1) might trigger corrective action towards to our initial targets at 102.58 (R2) and 102.81 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 101.93 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 101.69 (S2) and 101.43 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.30, 102.58, 102.81
Support Levels: 101.93, 101.69, 101.43

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 9, 2013, 4:41am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 09 2013

China’s trade surplus reaches a four year high as exports rise signalling strength returning to the world’s second largest economy

Sunday evening’s trading session sees a raft of information published from Japan, the final GDP figure is predicted to come in at 0.4%, with the final GDP price predicted to come in at -0.3%, bank lending should come in at 2% improvement. There is important inflation data published on Sunday regarding China’s economy; the CPI is predicted to come in at 3.0% with PPI expected to be in at -1.5%. Monday sees Germany’s trade balance published; expected in at €17.4bn positive, Germany’s month on month industrial prediction is expected in at 0.8%. The Swiss unemployment rate is predicted to come in at 3.2%, with retail sales up 1.7%. Europe’s Sentix index is published with the expectation of a print of 10.5. There are also various Eurogroup meetings held. Monday also sees the UK BoE governor Mark Carney deliver a speech as does a significant person from the FOMC, Mr Bullard. The UK RICS house price balance is expected in at 59% suggesting that 59% of surveyors questioned are witnessing higher house prices in the UK. Japan publishes data on manufacturing index activity, predicted to come in at 17.2, with tertiary activity expected to print at 0.3%. Later that evening Australia’s leading confidence index, from the National Australia Bank, is published, the expectation is for a print of circa 5, which is similar to the previous month’s print. Australia’s home loans figure is expected to come in at 1.3%. The consumer confidence index for Japan is published, expected in at 44.2, up from 42.1 the previous month.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-09 24h | EU. Eurogroup meeting
2013-12-09 11:00 GMT | EU. Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Oct)
2013-12-09 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-09 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-09 06:16 GMT | EUR/USD back in the red and below breakout point of 1.3708 ahead of European session
2013-12-09 04:29 GMT | Gold opens the week on a flat note; 1172 technical target looms
2013-12-09 03:45 GMT | GBP/USD pulling back after touching upside projected target at 1.6425 last week
2013-12-09 01:53 GMT | EUR/JPY off highs but nicely higher for session on “risk on” mood and sluggish Japanese data

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37212 LOW 1.36997 BID 1.37 ASK 1.37002 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR/USD is entering the retracement stage on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.3730 (R2) and 1.3748 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.3712 (R1). Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.3658 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.3640 (S2) and 1.3621 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

Resistance Levels: 1.3712, 1.3730, 1.3748
Support Levels: 1.3658, 1.3640, 1.3621

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63535 LOW 1.63227 BID 1.63504 ASK 1.63507 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6360 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6392 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6423 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.6318 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.6290 (S2) and 1.6266 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.6360, 1.6392, 1.6423
Support Levels: 1.6318, 1.6290, 1.6266

USDJPY :
HIGH 103.22 LOW 102.89 BID 103.037 ASK 103.039 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 44:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 103.13 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 103.29 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 103.46 (R3) . Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 102.77 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our supportive barrier at 102.62 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 102.46 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.13, 103.29, 103.46
Support Levels: 102.77, 102.62, 102.46

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 10, 2013, 4:49am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 10 2013

ECOFIN meetings might affect Euro direction, whilst important USA economic data is published in the New York session

Tuesday sees the publication of China’s industrial production figures, expected in at 10.2%, retail sales in China are predicted to rise by 13.2%, with fixed asset investment predicted to rise by 20.1% - year on year. In Europe both French and Italian Industrial production figures are published, both expected in at circa 0.2-0.3%. The UK’s manufacturing production is expected to fall to 0.4% from the previous month’s 1.1%. The UK’s trade balance is expected to stay at circa £9.1 bn for the month. The UK’s NIESR also publishes its latest data, suggesting that economic activity will be stable at circa 0.7%. In Europe the ECOFIN meetings will take place with Mario Draghi then holding court with a speech discussing the outcomes of the meetings in relation to any policy change, or additions. In the USA there is a raft of information published in the afternoon trading session; the NFIB small business index is published expected in at 92.7. JOLTS job openings are expected in at 3.96 million, with wholesale inventories in the USA expected to shrink to 0.3%. Later in the evening on Tuesday Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index is published, the expectation is for a figure similar to the previous month of 1.9%. Japan publishes its core machinery orders, expected in at 0.9%, up from the previous month’s negative print. The corporation inflation number is also printed, expected in at 2.7% year on year. Equity index futures are looking insipid with regards to tomorrow’s trading opportunities, the DJIA equity index future is up 0.05%, SPX future up 0.07%, NASDAQ up 0.07%. Looking towards the European open the STOXX future is up 0.34%, DAX up 0.35%, CAC up 0.08% and the FTSE future is up 0.22%. NYMEX WTI oil closed flat on the day on Monday at $97.34 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas closed the day up a significant 2.87% at $4.23 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day up 0.42% at $1234.20 per ounce with silver up 0.91% at $19.70 per ounce. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known, rose 0.1 percent to C$1.0627 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after falling as much as 0.3 percent. It touched C$1.0708 on Dec. 6th, the weakest since May 2010. One loonie buys 94.10 U.S. cents.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-10 12:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
2013-12-10 15:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Nov)
2013-12-10 23:30 GMT | Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)
2013-12-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-10 05:41 GMT | AUD/USD capped by 0.91/9120 offers cluster
2013-12-10 02:44 GMT | USD/JPY rolling over short-term as traders sell greenback; 103.54 remains key resistance
2013-12-10 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD bursts through 1.3750 barrier
2013-12-10 01:51 GMT | NZD/USD tilting towards 0.83 handle

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37676 LOW 1.37341 BID 1.37498 ASK 1.37501 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3768 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3788 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3728 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3768, 1.3788, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64657 LOW 1.64186 BID 1.64491 ASK 1.64497 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.6465 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.6493 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.6428 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.6403 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518
Support Levels: 1.6428, 1.6403, 1.6382

USDJPY :
HIGH 103.394 LOW 103.167 BID 103.341 ASK 103.344 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 103.38 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 103.70 (R2) and 104.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 102.92 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 102.68 (S2) and 102.47 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.38, 103.70, 104.03
Support Levels: 102.92, 102.68, 102.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 11, 2013, 3:42am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 11 2013

Could USA oil supplies data cause WTI oil to flirt with the critical $100 a barrel level?

Wednesday sees the publication of USA oil supplies data, expected to print at -5.6 bn barrels, whilst the USA federal budget balance is expected to print at $154.6 bn, significantly worsening from the previous month’s figure of $91.6 bn. In New Zealand the cash rate is announced, predicted to stay the same at 2.5%. The press conference, the rate statement and the policy statement will accompany the announcement of the base interest rate, finally later that evening the RBNZ governor Wheeler will conduct a conference. Later Australia will announce the change in unemployment and as a consequence publish the unemployment rate; expected to rise to 5.8% with circa 10K new jobs created. Looking towards equity index futures for Wednesday, the DJIA future is down 0.30%, SPX future down 0.33%, NASDAQ down 0.07%. STOXX is down 0.90%, DAX future down 0.84%, CAC down 1.02%, FTSE future down 0.36%. Commodities enjoyed an improvement through Tuesday’s sessions. NYMEX WTI oil up 1.20% at $98.51 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas up 0.12% at $4.24 per therm, COMEX gold enjoyed a significant bounce, up 2.18% at $1261.10 per ounce with silver at $201.41 up 3.60% on the day. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3761 late in New York after reaching $1.3795, the strongest since Oct. 29th. The six straight increases were the most since the seven days ending Dec. 18th, 2012. The common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.53 yen after climbing to 142.17, the highest since October 2008. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 102.85 yen. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the U.S. currency versus its 10 major counterparts, dropped 0.3 percent to 1,012.57, reaching the lowest level since Nov. 1st. The Swiss franc advanced by 0.2 percent to 1.22169 per euro in London’s afternoon session after appreciating to 1.22065, the strongest level since May 2nd. The currency rose for a sixth day versus the dollar, gaining 0.4 percent to 88.66 centimes per dollar. The Swiss franc advanced to the strongest level in seven months against the euro as investors weighed improving economic data before the nation’s central bank meets this week.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-11 12:00 GMT | USA. MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 6)
2013-12-11 15:00 GMT | USA. Treasury Sec Lew Speech
2013-12-11 19:00 GMT | USA. Monthly Budget Statement (Nov)
2013-12-11 20:00 GMT | New Zealand. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-11 06:10 GMT | EUR/USD reaches up to 1.3791 Fibo target and finally relents – for now
2013-12-11 03:48 GMT | AUD/USD stuck in the intraday doldrums after sluggish consumer confidence
2013-12-11 03:37 GMT | USD/JPY projected circa 106.00 by Q4 2014 - JPMorgan
2013-12-11 02:26 GMT | GBP/USD pausing after less-than-convincing breakout above 1.6442 previous resistance

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37654 LOW 1.37468 BID 1.37578 ASK 1.37583 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We expect consolidation development after the initial uptrend formation on the hourly chart frame though possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.3775 (R1). Break here is required to establish further bullish pressure, targeting 1.3789 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3728 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3775, 1.3789, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64579 LOW 1.64306 BID 1.64332 ASK 1.64335 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.6465 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.6493 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.6421 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 1.6403 (S2) and 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518
Support Levels: 1.6421, 1.6403, 1.6382

USDJPY :
HIGH 102.948 LOW 102.574 BID 102.732 ASK 102.734 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 102.93 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 103.15 (R2) and 103.38 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 102.65 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 102.47 (S2) and 102.30 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38
Support Levels: 102.65, 102.47, 102.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 12, 2013, 5:15am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 12 2013

Markets sell of due to ‘taper’ rumours, will better than expected unemployment numbers raise a seasonal cheer?

Thursday Mario Draghi speaks, whilst the Swiss publish their monetary policy intentions and assessment with the Libor rate also published. The Swiss bank head Jordan will also hold a conference; the ECB will publish the latest monetary policy in the form of a monthly bulletin. European industrial production is expected to rise to 0.4% from the previous month’s fall of -0.5%. In the USA core retail sales data is published, expected in at 0.2%, with retail sales up 0.6%. Unemployment claims are expected in at circa 321K after the surprise fall last week of 289K. Import prices in the USA are expected to fall to -0.7% (month on month). Canada’s central bank governor Poloz speaks late on Thursday, whilst the business New Zealand index is published, expected to be similar to the previous month’s print of 55.7, whilst Japan’s revised industrial production is expected in at 0.5%, identical to the previous month’s print. NYMEX WTI oil closed down on Wednesday by 1.13%, at $97.41 per barrel, with NYMEX nat gas closing up 2.43% on the day at $4.34 per therm. WTI advanced 5.3 percent last week, the most in five months, as U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 11 weeks and TransCanada Corp. announced plans to start part of its Keystone pipeline to the Gulf Coast from Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX futures. COMEX gold closed down 0.61% at $1253.40 per ounce with silver at $20.28 down 0.17% on the day. The DJIA equity index future is (at the time of writing) down 0.89%, SPX down 1.24% NASDAQ down 1.31%. Looking towards Europe’s open the STOXX 50 future is down 0.61%, DAX future is down 0.54%, CAC future is down 0.34%, FTSE future down 0.81%.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-12 09:00 GMT | EU. ECB Monthly Report
2013-12-12 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB press conference
2013-12-12 13:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
2013-12-12 18:05 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Poloz Speech

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-12 02:49 GMT | Gold sees a little downside Wednesday; 1268.30 remains resistance
2013-12-12 01:19 GMT | USD/JPY heading to the 100 handle?
2013-12-12 00:41 GMT | AUD/USD spikes
2013-12-12 00:20 GMT | GBP/USD posts bearish reversal candle Wednesday. Could it have a date with 1.6250?

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37981 LOW 1.37731 BID 1.37889 ASK 1.37892 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3806 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3832 (R2) and 1.3860 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 1.3757 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 1.3728 (S2) and 1.3706 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3806, 1.3832, 1.3860
Support Levels: 1.3757, 1.3728, 1.3706

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.638 LOW 1.63533 BID 1.63654 ASK 1.63659 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market descended, however price appreciation might be possible above the next resistance level at 1.6398 (R1). Break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.6428 (R2) and 1.6465 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6346 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.6319 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.6290 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6398, 1.6428, 1.6465
Support Levels: 1.6346, 1.6319, 1.6290

USDJPY :
HIGH 102.754 LOW 102.387 BID 102.649 ASK 102.651 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 102.93 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 103.15 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 103.38 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 102.30 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 102.10 (S2) and 101.92 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38
Support Levels: 102.30, 102.10, 101.92

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 13, 2013, 2:45am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 13 2013

Aussie dollar sells off after RBA governor sets a target to devalue the Aussie

Friday sees the production of the German WPI, wholesale production inflation expected to be at 0.4% month on month, Swiss producer inflation is expected in at 0.3%, whilst employment change in Europe is expected to remain flat. USA core PPI is published on Friday, expected to be flat, with core PPI expected at 0.1% The DJIA closed down 0.66% on Thursday, the SPX down 0.38% and the NASDAQ down 0.14%. European markets also closed in the red; STOXX down 0.65%, CAC down 0.43%, DAX down 0.66% UK FTSE down 0.97%. Equity index futures are, at the time of writing, pointing to a negative opening in Europe on Friday and the USA. The DJIA equity index future is down 0.69%, SPX down 0.33%, the NASDAQ future down 0.30%. European futures are also down sharply; STOXX down 0.68%, DAX future down 0.70%, CAC future down 0.43% with the FTSE future down 1.15%. Commodities closed the day mainly downing Thursday; NYMEX WTI oil down 0.05% at $97.39 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas closed up 0.90% at $4.38 per therm due to storage data being below expectations. COMEX gold sold off sharply to close the day down 2.56% at $1225.00 per ounce, with silver on COMEX down a substantial 4.25% at $19.49 per ounce. The greenback gained 0.2 percent to $1.3753 per euro after falling to $1.3811 Wednesday, its lowest level since Oct. 29th. The U.S. currency climbed 0.9 percent to 103.38 yen, the strongest level since May 23rd. Japan’s currency slipped 0.7 percent to 142.18 yen per euro.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-13 10:00 GMT | EU. Employment Change (YoY) (Q3)
2013-12-13 13:00 GMT | Poland. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
2013-12-13 13:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-13 13:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-13 04:08 GMT | EUR/JPY just above 142.62 3rd wave resistance; possible 4th wave target 138.65
2013-12-13 03:55 GMT | USD/JPY sets fresh 2013 highs
2013-12-13 02:32 GMT | AUD/USD correcting higher after Thursday’s selling hysteria
2013-12-13 00:39 GMT | EUR/USD posts bearish reversal candle Thursday – may be time for a pullback

EURUSD
HIGH 1.37596 LOW 1.37421 BID 1.37497 ASK 1.37503 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Short- term tendency is bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Though risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 1.3777 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3792 (R2) and 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: A break of the support at 1.3739 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3723 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 1.3706 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3777, 1.3792, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3739, 1.3723, 1.3706

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.636 LOW 1.63328 BID 1.63431 ASK 1.63439 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Rise above the resistance at 1.6369 (R1) might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.6384 (R2). Further market increase above it would then face final resistive structure at 1.6398 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.6319 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.6304 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.6290 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.6369, 1.6384, 1.6398
Support Levels: 1.6319, 1.6304, 1.6290

USDJPY :
HIGH 103.921 LOW 103.355 BID 103.728 ASK 103.732 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 36:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 103.91 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 104.18 (R2) and then mark at 104.41 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 103.46 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 103.24 (S2) and 103.06 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 103.91, 104.18, 104.41
Support Levels: 103.46, 103.24, 103.06

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 16, 2013, 2:39am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 16 2013

All eyes on the FOMC meeting later this week, whilst Markit Economics PMIs also take centre stage

Sunday evening witnesses the publication of the Westpac consumer sentiment survey for New Zealand, the previous print came in at 115.4, the anticipation is for a similar result. The Japanese Tankan manufacturing index is published late Sunday evening, predictions are for a figure of 15, up from the previous month’s figure of 12. The non-manufacturing Tankan index is also published, expected in at 16 from the previous print of 12. In the UK the Rightmove asking house price index is published, in the previous month asking prices fell by 2.4% therefore an improvement is expected. The Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing index is published late Sunday evening with the expectations that a small rise from 50.5 to 51 will be witnessed. Monday sees the publication of French flash PMI manufacturing and services data courtesy of Markit economics; both indices are expected to rise, manufacturing to 49.1, services to 48.9. Germany’s twin PMI Markit gauges are also published; manufacturing predicted in at 53.1 services at 55.2. Finally Europe’s are published with manufacturing predicted in at 51.9 with services at 51.5. Europe’s trade balance published Monday is expected in at €15.2 bn, meanwhile the Bundesbank’s tentative monthly survey is published. In the USA we witness the publication of the Empire State manufacturing survey, last month saw a surprise fall to -2.2%, a restoration of positive data is expected, with the print potentially coming in at 4.9. Flash Markit manufacturing PMI is published for the USA, expected in at 54.9, whilst industrial production is expected to rise by 0.6% from the previous month’s figure of -0.1%. The ECB president Mario Draghi speaks mid-afternoon European time on Monday, the expectation is that he’ll cover the subjects of: the strength of the euro, countries such as Ireland moving out of various bailout imposed austerity measures, interest rate reductions, European banking union and the potential for quantitative easing - through a bond buying programme.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-16 13:58 GMT | USA. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)Preliminar
2013-12-16 14:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
2013-12-16 14:00 GMT | USA. Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Oct)
2013-12-16 14:15 GMT | USA. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-13 22:14 GMT | Session recap: Dollar extends the swing ahead FOMC
2013-12-13 21:58 GMT | AUD/USD, stay bearish?
2013-12-13 21:42 GMT | EUR/CAD a sure sell?
2013-12-13 21:25 GMT | GBP/JPY ending the week on the back foot

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3761 LOW 1.37287 BID 1.3756 ASK 1.37564 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias tends to slide into the bearish side. Further market rise is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 1.3777 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.3792 (R2) and last one at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3737 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3723 (S2) and 1.3706 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3777, 1.3792, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3737, 1.3723, 1.3706

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63095 LOW 1.62871 BID 1.63069 ASK 1.63075 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Even though instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate downside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.6314 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.6333 (R2) and 1.6353 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.6290 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.6268 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support at 1.6246 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6314, 1.6333, 1.6353
Support Levels: 1.6290, 1.6268, 1.6246

USDJPY :
HIGH 103.291 LOW 102.643 BID 102.821 ASK 102.827 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the local high at 102.92 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 103.08 (R2) and 103.28 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 102.65 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 102.51 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 102.35 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.92, 103.08, 103.28
Support Levels: 102.65, 102.51, 102.35

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

allycapozz · December 16, 2013, 5:28pm

I share something short I read about accuracy by 2014. “the prospect is positive for the USD in 2014 due to the weakness of the currencies of emerging countries, this is the result of the deterioration of the emerging economies. The deterioration of the current account, the challenges of inflation and poor domestic debt dynamics are one of the symptoms of the decline in the economy of emerging countries. With what Morgan Stanley recommends is long on the dollar against the currencies of emerging countries.”

alayoua · December 18, 2013, 3:58am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 18 2013

All eyes on the last FOMC meeting of 2013, expect taper speculation to reach fever pitch

Wednesday sees the publication of the German IFO business climate index, expected in at 109.7. The UK publishes its latest claimant count figures, predicted to be down 35.2 K month on month. The expected percentage unemployment claimant count is expected in at 7.6%. The UK’s BoE MPC reveals the votes on interest rate setting and quantitative easing both expected in as unanimous votes. ECONFIN meetings continue through the week, whilst the Swiss ZEW sentiment index is published. In the afternoon session attention turns to the USA data, housing starts data is predicted in at 0.91 million year on year, whilst crude oil inventories might have the capacity to shock again with the previous week’s figure coming in -10.6 m barrels. Then attention turns to the FOMC and the expected news regarding the potential taper, the Fed’s base rate decision will be announced expected to remain at 0.25%, thereafter the FOMC will deliver an explanatory statement and deliver their economic projections. The DJIA closed down marginally by 0.06% at 15875 on Tuesday, SPX down 0.31%, NASDAQ by 0.14%. European indices suffered a sharp selloff over the two trading sessions on Tuesday; STOXX 50 down 1.24%, CAC down 1.24%, DAX down 0.86%, FTSE down 0.55%. The DJIA equity index future is down 0.08% at the time of writing (10:00pm UK time), the SPX future is down 0.42%, NASDAQ down 0.27%. STOXX future is down 0.97%, DAX future down 0.62%, CAC future down 1.00%, FTSE future down 0.33%. NYMEX WTI oil is down 0.38% on the day at $97.11 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas is up 0.02%, COMEX gold sold off sharply by 1.15% at $1230.10 per ounce, silver on COMEX is down 1.02% at $19.90 per ounce. The dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 102.67 yen mid-afternoon New York time Tuesday, after touching 103.92 yen on Dec. 13th, the strongest level since October 2008. It was little changed at $1.3768 per euro. The 17-nation common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.36 yen. The dollar traded at almost a five-year high versus the yen as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting that may will result in a reduction of currency-debasing stimulus. The Aussie fell 0.4 percent to NZ$1.0773 after earlier touching the weakest since October 2008. It was 0.5 percent weaker at 88.98 U.S. cents. The Aussie dollar fell to a five-year low versus New Zealand’s currency as the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its most recent meeting that it maintained the option to cut interest rates. The pound fell for a fifth day versus the dollar on Tuesday after a government report showed U.K. consumer-price inflation unexpectedly slowed in November to the lowest level in four years. Sterling declined 0.2 percent to $1.6267.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-18 09:30 GMT | UK. Claimant Count Change (Oct)
2013-12-18 09:30 GMT | UK. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Oct)
2013-12-18 19:00 GMT | US. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-12-18 19:30 GMT | US. Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-18 04:25 GMT | USD/JPY hits 103.00 on high-volume Nikkei 225 rally
2013-12-18 02:31 GMT | GBP/USD on the rise ahead of the Fed; 1.6317 is ST “correction resistance”
2013-12-18 01:40 GMT | AUD/USD: Rally finds resistance at 0.8930
2013-12-18 01:06 GMT | EUR/JPY surges from weekly lows

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37748 LOW 1.37627 BID 1.37709 ASK 1.37714 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.3792 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3814 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.3832 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3746 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3729 (S2) and 1.3709 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3792, 1.3814, 1.3832
Support Levels: 1.3746, 1.3729, 1.3709

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.62888 LOW 1.6262 BID 1.62839 ASK 1.62846 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 36:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the resistance level at 1.6309 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.6333 (R2) and 1.6353 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.6260 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our supportive barrier at 1.6244 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.6228 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6309, 1.6333, 1.6353
Support Levels: 1.6260, 1.6244, 1.6228

USDJPY :
HIGH 103.034 LOW 102.564 BID 102.954 ASK 102.958 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 36:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 103.11 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 103.28 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 103.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Neutral market structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome next support level at 102.64 (S1). Any penetration below this level might determine medium-term negative bias and expose our intraday targets at 102.46 (S2) and 102.24 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.11, 103.28, 103.42
Support Levels: 102.64, 102.46, 102.24

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

alayoua · December 19, 2013, 3:24am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 19 2013

After the USA FOMC taper tantrum focus now shifts back to key fundamentals such as the USA claimant count

Thursday we receive data on Europe’s balance of payments which is predicted to print at €14.2 billion positive. Retail sales in the UK are predicted to come in at 0.3% up on the month. USA unemployment claims are predicted in at 336K, down from 368K, existing home sales are predicted in at 5.04 million annual rate, a slight seasonal fall from the previous month. The Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to come in at 10.3, significantly up from 6.5 the previous month. Natural gas storage data is printed for the USA. Last week was down -81bn. Late evening Japan publishes its monetary policy statement and the Bank of Japan holds a press conference. The U.S. Dollar Index, which monitors the greenback versus its 10 major counterparts, gained 0.5 percent to 1.021.53 late in New York Wednesday. The greenback added 1.4 percent to 104.12 yen, the highest level since Oct. 6, 2008. The U.S. currency advanced 0.6 percent to $1.3685 versus Europe’s 17-nation euro. The dollar rose to a five-year high versus the yen after the Federal Reserve officials voted to reduce monthly asset purchases that are seen as debasing the U.S. currency amidst signs that economic growth is strengthening. The DJIA closed up 1.84% on Wednesday, a new record high at 16167, the SPX closed up 1.66% and the NASDAQ up 1.15%. In Europe STOXX closed up 1.13%, CAC up 1.00%, DAX up 1.06% and the FTSE up 0.09%. Looking towards Thursday the equity index future for the DJIA is up 1.89%, SPX up 1.79%, NASDAQ future up 1.38%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 0.88%, DAX up 0.88%, CAC up 0.97%, FTSE up 0.02%. NYMEX WTI oil closed the day up 0.60% at $97.80 per barrel, NASDAQ nat gas down 0.30% at $4.27 per therm, COMEX gold up 0.40% at $1235.00 per ounce with silver on COMEX down 0.66% at $19.71 per ounce.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-19 09:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-19 13:30 GMT | US. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)
2013-12-19 14:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q3)
2013-12-19 15:00 GMT | US. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Nov)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-19 05:34 GMT | GBP/AUD remains at multi-year highs just above 1.8500; next long-term target is 1.9670
2013-12-19 05:17 GMT | EUR/USD extends bearish bias, 1.3615 support eyed
2013-12-19 04:47 GMT | EUR/JPY pulling back early Thursday after big up day Wednesday; next upside target 145.76
2013-12-19 03:11 GMT | GBP/USD may have completed 5th wave higher Wednesday at 1.6483; 1st pullback target 1.6089

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36939 LOW 1.36493 BID 1.36744 ASK 1.36747 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative short-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.3697 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.3715 (R2) and 1.3731 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3656 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3634 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3615 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3697, 1.3715, 1.3731
Support Levels: 1.3656, 1.3634, 1.3615

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63972 LOW 1.63656 BID 1.63763 ASK 1.63768 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.6391 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.6408 (R2) and 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.6353 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 1.6337 (S2) and 1.6324 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424
Support Levels: 1.6353, 1.6337, 1.6324

USDJPY :
HIGH 104.363 LOW 103.782 BID 104.006 ASK 104.009 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 37:24

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 104.36 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 104.60 (R2) and 104.83 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 103.83 (S1). Clearance here would suggest lower targets at 103.54 (S2) and 103.24 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 104.36, 104.60, 104.83
Support Levels: 103.83, 103.54, 103.24

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Broker | ECN Forex Trading Platform | Foreign Currency Exchange | Best Currency Online Trading | FXCC )[/B]

alayoua · December 20, 2013, 4:18am

[B]Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 20 2013

USA final GDP data for 2013 published expectation at 3.6% annually, as UK current account data is expected to worsen

Friday sees the publication of German PPI for the month, predicted to come in flat with the German GfK business climate expected in at 7.4. The UK’s current account data is expected to worsen at -13.8 bn, with public sector borrowing predicted to remain steady at £6.6 bn and final GDP expected in at 0.8%. Core data for Canada includes CPI predicted to come in at 0.1% with retail sales expected to be flat and CPI expected in up 0.2%. The USA final GDP data is predicted to show growth of 3.6% annually. Europe’s consumer confidence is predicted to come on at -15 whilst the last high impact news event of the week sees the nomination vote for Fed chairman. The DJIA closed up marginally by 0.07% on Thursday, the SPX closed down 0.06% and NASDAQ down 0.29%. European markets played catch up with the bullish momentum move post the Fed’s taper decision on Wednesday; STOXX closed up 1.88%, CAC up 1.64%, DAX up 1.68%, FTSE up 1.43%. Looking towards Friday’s open; the DJIA equity index future is up 0.02%, SPX future down 0.17%, NASDAQ future down 0.45%. Euro STOXX equity index future is up 1.78%, DAX future up 1.56%, CAC future up 1.66%, FTSE up 1.52%. NYMEX WTI oil rose 0.99% to $98.77 per barrel on Thursday, NYMEX nat gas rose a significant 4.52% to $4.44 per therm due to storage capacity concerns. COMEX gold experienced a significant sell off, down 3.69% on the day to $1189.40 per ounce. COMEX silver closed down on the day 4.11% at $19.24 per ounce. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.3655 per euro mid-afternoon Thursday New York time after advancing to $1.3650, the strongest level since Dec. 6th. The U.S. currency dropped 0.1 percent to 104.21 yen. The yen gained 0.3 percent to 142.29 per euro after sliding to 142.90 yesterday, the weakest level since October 2008. The dollar climbed to the strongest level in almost two weeks against the euro as investors assess Federal Reserve plans to wind down bond-buying next year amid signs that economic growth is gaining momentum. The U.S. currency advanced versus most of its 16 major counterparts after the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it would slow monetary stimulus to $75 billion a month from $85 billion.
Market Analysis | FXCC Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-20 09:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q3)
2013-12-20 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Nov)
2013-12-20 13:30 GMT | US. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
2013-12-20 n/a | US. Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-20 06:16 GMT | EUR/USD extends decline to 2 week low
2013-12-20 05:45 GMT | EUR/GBP continues to slide Friday ahead of data; 0.8299 is next support
2013-12-20 04:11 GMT | USD/JPY holds at 5-year highs after BoJ
2013-12-20 03:46 GMT | AUD/NZD back on the downside after Thursday bounce; downtrend intact with target of 1.0560

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3667 LOW 1.36253 BID 1.36362 ASK 1.36365 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EUR/USD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.3663 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.3678 (R2) and 1.3691 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low offers key supportive barrier at 1.3631 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum on the downside and expose our intraday targets at 1.3615 (S2) and 1.3600 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3663, 1.3678, 1.3691
Support Levels: 1.3631, 1.3615, 1.3600

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.63722 LOW 1.63502 BID 1.63527 ASK 1.63529 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.6391 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.6408 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.6424 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6351 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.6337 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.6324 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6391, 1.6408, 1.6424
Support Levels: 1.6351, 1.6337, 1.6324

USDJPY :
HIGH 104.591 LOW 104.213 BID 104.44 ASK 104.442 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 43:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers key resistance level at 104.60 (R1). In case of price appreciation above it our focus would be shifted to the higher targets at 104.83 (R2) and 105.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly positive however possible progress below the initial support level at 104.09 (S1) might expose our intraday targets at 103.83 (S2) and then 103.54 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 104.60, 104.83, 105.05
Support Levels: 104.09, 103.83, 103.54

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )[/B]

kelvs · January 11, 2014, 3:47am

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