Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Finally the U.S. House of Representatives took a step closer to enact President Donald Trump’s dream tax-plan by supporting it with enough votes to escalate the bill towards the Senate on Thursday. As a result, the US Dollar managed to recover some of its latest losses but the EUR didn’t refrain to bend down as investors still fear for the Senate’s approval to the Trump’s Bill as it has its own version of the proposal and Republicans hold only small majority there. The GBP managed to register across the board rise due to European President for Brexit’s optimism surrounding the UK’s cessation process while the JPY adhered to profit-booking but the Gold kept being strong on US & US Geo-political concerns favoring the yellow-metal’s safe-haven demand. Moving on, AUD and NZD slowed their downside pace after China infused heavy liquidity into the market but the CAD strengthened a bit on Saudi Arabian Finance Minister’s favor for the need of global crude production-cut accord’s extension.

Even after disturbing its latest downturn on Thursday, the greenback couldn’t hold those gains for long as news concerning investigations into Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election dragged the currency down on early-Friday. However, the EUR & GBP didn’t stop their advances but commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, dropped on New Zealand’s softer PPI & pessimism surrounding the Chinese demand going forward. Additionally, the JPY and Gold continued pleasing buyers whereas Crude softened on increasing US supply issue.

Moving towards the rest of the day releases, ECB President, Mario Draghi, is scheduled to speak at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress and the Canadian CPI, together with US housing market details, are up on economic calendar for publish. Also, the political front could keep entertaining investors with updates relating to US Special Counsel Robert Muller’s proceedings to handle the Russian meddling and how Senate perceives Trump’s tax-plan.

While ECB President is more likely to praise the regional economic status, which actually helped the EUR to rally in latest past, signal to the central bank’s rate-hike perception will be closely observed and reacted with spike in Euro. In case of economics, Canadian CPI could disappoint CAD Bulls by flashing 0.1% mark against 0.2% prior but US Building Permits & Housing Starts could again portray the strength reality sector with the former likely posting 1.25M against 1.23M prior and the later is expected to make 1.19M mark versus 1.13M earlier.

Hence, with the smaller line of economics and a bit tapered political pressure, markets might close the week by following pre-established moves; however, it’s a Friday and surprises always erupts around the same.

Technical Talk

Having failed to sustain the recent bounce from 50-day SMA, the USDJPY drops below the 112.65 support and may test 112.00 and the 111.75-70 SMA confluence with 112.65 & 113.30 acting as nearby resistances. Further, USDCAD continue respecting the upward slanting trend-line, at 1.2730 now, and may again challenge the 1.2780 while EURNZD had to clear the 1.7270-75 in order to extend its rally towards 1.7330 & 1.7390 with 1.7110 & 1.7050 being adjacent rest-points to observing during the pair’s pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although US House of Representatives managed to escalate the President’s dream tax-plan to the Senate, little acceptance from fellow republicans raised doubts over the future of such proposal during the vote in Senate where Republicans can’t risk more than two votes to remain on desk. Additionally, not so strong inflation and Retail Sales, coupled with latest news signaling further investigations of Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election, dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down for one more week. With this, the EUR managed to extend its up-moves, which later gained support from hawkish comments of the ECB President, Mario Draghi, whereas GBP struggled between gains and losses on uncertainty concerning UK PM’s future and Brexit progress confronting with upbeat Jobs report and Retail Sales. Further, the JPY and Gold kept being investors’ favorite due to macro pessimism surrounding US tax-plan & British political plays while commodity currencies dipped on China’s soft data-points and recent efforts to streamline economic focus off from manufacturing to services. Moreover, the Crude prices registered first weekly decline in previous six after EIA projected increased supply and investors adhered to profit-booking ahead of this week’s global oil producers’ meet.

Even if the political tension between Spain & Catalonia didn’t gain much attention off-late, updates signaling German Chancellor’s, Angela Merkel’s, failure to form a coalition government dragged the EUR down during early Monday. As a result, the USD and GBP could recover some of their latest losses, which in-turn negatively affected the JPY and Gold prices. Additionally, energy traders were also calm at the start of the week as they doubt over the global producers’ ability to agree on the extension of cut beyond March 2018 during month-end meeting.

On the economic front, German PPI matched prior 0.3% figure and surpassed 0.2% forecast but couldn’t do much to help the regional currency which is already facing political backlash at Germany. However, ECB President, Mario Draghi, is scheduled to deliver testimony in front of the European parliament and may help the EUR by repeating his optimism for the regional economic growth. Though, any disappointment from the testimony, in the form of Draghi’s inability to convey region’s economic recovery and ECB’s future path, can have more negatives for the Euro.

For the rest of the globe, there are no major economic details scheduled for release but the political play at US, either concerning tax-plan or probe against Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election, and at the UK, could keep entertain USD & GBP traders respectively. In case of commodity currencies, China’s another infusion of heavy liquidity raises questions regarding the strength of world’s largest industrial player and may negative affect the AUD, NZD and CAD. In all these plays, the JPY and Gold are likely to maintain their strength as investors run to risk-safety during such times of Geo-political downtime.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s dip below 1.1755-50, coupled with latest negatives for the EUR, indicate brighter chances of the pair’s plunge to 1.1680-75 with 1.1720 acting as intermediate halt while an upside break of 1.1755 may again propel the quote 1.1810. Further, the USDJPY’s daily close below 50-day SMA level of 112.70 seems pulling the pair to 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence region of 111.70 while EURJPY is likely bouncing off from 131.25-20 support-region to 131.90 & 132.30 resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

If we analyze yesterday’s up-move by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX), it can be known that lack of positivity at home isn’t an obstacle in case your rivals are suffering too. The same happened with the US Dollar on Monday when collapse of German coalition and ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish testimony dragged the EUR down and rather helped the greenback to recover some of its latest losses. Further, the GBP also stretched its advances with renewed optimism concerning the Brexit progress whereas Gold and JPY dropped on USD’s strength. Moving on, the AUD, NZD and CAD all declined as recent pessimism at China and lack of any upbeat domestic details dragged those commodity currencies to south while Crude adhered to profit-booking after investors feared that rising US production might supersede global production-cut efforts.

During early Tuesday, traders refrain to change their minds due to lack of big releases while negative outcomes of Japan’s All Industries Activity Index and RBA meeting minutes did hurt JPY and AUD respectively. Additionally, latest news that present Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, denied holding any position once Mr. Jerome Powell acquires the office gave extra mile to Mr. Donald Trump in governing the Federal Reserve as he now has to assign his choice for one more vacant position of the central-bank policymaker which traders took as a positive sign for the USD.

Moving on, today’s economic calendar is likely to remain tepid and lack any major economic events/details. However, Canadian Wholesale Sales, US Existing Home Sales and public appearance of the Fed Chair, at the New York University Stern School of Business, could offer intermediate market moves.

Looking at the data-points, the Canadian Wholesale Sales may help the CAD to halt its downside with 0.6% mark against 0.5% prior while the Existing Home Sales from US could continue supporting the greenback’s advances with 5.42M versus 5.39M earlier. Further, Fed Chair isn’t expected to reveal any secret of the US central bank but can reveal her support for the December rate-hike and tighter monetary policy going forward, which may favor the USD to remain strong for the time being.

In case of politics, the Robert Muller’s investigation and talk regarding the tax-plan may entertain short-term USD traders while US President’s latest comment to levy more sanctions on the North Korea may acquire a heated response from the hermit kingdom and can help the JPY and Gold to reimburse their losses. Alike US, the UK is also struggling on political front and updates for Brexit are likely to be analyzed closely to predict GBP moves.

To sum up, lack of important details/events could keep restricting the market performance ahead of Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday but political waves at UK, US & Germany may not lose their importance to surprise everyone.

Technical Talk

Although 1.2820-25 acts as immediate barrier for the USDCAD to clear in order to aim for 1.2860, a short-term ascending trend-channel continue portraying brighter chances for the pair’s up-moves while 1.2780 seems nearby support to watch. Further, AUDUSD seems all set to meet the 0.7515 and the 0.7500 support while 0.7570 being adjacent resistance whereas EURGBP’s break of 0.8855 TL indicates the pair’s drop to 0.8820.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even after witnessing better than forecast Existing Home Sales number and Fed Chair’s comments favoring December rate-hike, needless to mention about strong equity market performance, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t sustain its earlier gains as President Donald Trump levied extra sanctions on North Korea and its trade partners, including three firms from China. With this, Geo-political tensions concerning US-North Korea war, which has been silent off-late, grabbed investor attention while worries related to tax-plan & Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential Election became stronger enough to fetch the greenback towards south.

On the other hand, the EUR managed to recover some of its losses piled after collapse of German coalition whereas GBP remained strong because of rise in CBI Industrial Order Expectations. Further, the JPY and Gold also benefited from increased safe-haven demand after news relating to North Korean sanction whereas AUD, NZD and CAD all took a U-turn from their earlier dips on profit-booking at commodity desk. Additionally, Crude prices again rose after supply disruptions from Canada to US and dip in API inventories pleased energy traders.

While Geo-political developments kept dominating the Tuesday’s trading sessions, there seemed less change of sentiment during early-Wednesday. However, market players are likely being cautious ahead of many important economic details/events that are scheduled to release, coupled with nearness to Thanksgiving and month-end square-ups. Notable amongst them are monetary policy meeting minutes from FOMC, UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement, US Durable Goods Orders and New Zealand’s quarterly Retail Sales.

If we observe latest monetary policy meeting by the FOMC, it didn’t offer any change to the Federal Funds Rate and conveyed the central-bank’s concern for Inflation while being optimistic for the Employment sector. As today’s minute statement would be the last before crucial December meeting, investors are likely to examine details of how policymakers perceive upcoming rate-hike and chances of monetary policy tightening going forward. At the data-front, US Durable Goods Orders may not please the greenback buyers as they are expected to flash 0.4% growth against 2.0% prior while New Zealand Retail Sales might also disappoint NZD optimists with their 0.4% mark compared to 2.0% earlier.

Hence, while FOMC minutes may have to offer strong support for the December hike and some more going-forward, the Durable Goods Orders should also register welcome figures to restore USD’s upside.

In case of the GBP, UK’s autumn statement will also release Budget for 2018 by the Finance Minister and the same is important for the Theresa May as she is struggling to maintain her power in the British economy. Mr. Hammond has a crucial task to balance the government spending amid weaker growth and please British people with tax & spending plans promised by May. So, any miscommunication or disappointment could have higher implication on the present government and may again drag the Pound towards south.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD again confronts the 50-day SMA level of 1.3260 that has been restricting the pair’s upside off-late. Should upbeat UK releases help the pair to clear 1.3260, it can rise to 1.3290 & 1.3320 whereas 1.3220 & 1.3180 seem nearby support to watch during pullback. NZDUSD is struggling with a fortnight old descending trend-line resistance of 0.6850, break of which could escalate its latest pullback recovery towards 0.6880 while 0.6800 & 0.6780 may act as immediate supports. At the end, EURCHF’s trading above the 1.1615 & the 1.1600 trend-line levels keep signaling its upside to 1.1665 & 1.1690.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 23 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Having witnessed magnified market moves due to various eco-politico factors around early-week, Thanksgiving Holiday and dearth of major economics might restrict the trade performance during rest of the week. However, headline Flash PMIs from EU, Germany & US, coupled with UK GDP’s second estimate and Canadian Retail Sales, could offer intermediate trade opportunities to investors. Additionally, political plays at US, UK & Germany are also likely to keep marking their presence.
Let us describe each one of them in detail.

What’s Wrong With The USD?

Even after pushing Mr. Trump’s dream tax-plan a step ahead towards being a law and witnessing not to disappointing Retail Sales and Inflation figures, the US Dollar failed to stop its prior week’s decline and registered another weekly loss. The reasons were Senate members’ show of dissatisfaction for Republican proposal and latest investigation into Trump administration’s role in alleged Russian meddling around 2016 Presidential Election. Though, USD wasn’t the only currency that became victim of negative political waves, the GBP was also badly affected, even after having good Retail Sales and Employment numbers, on the news that nearly 40 Tory members are planning to draft their stand-off against present UK PM. As a result, the EUR proved to be the only currency that had good economics and less of political disturbance, which was well portrayed in its north-run.

On the other hand, the JPY and Gold benefitted from Geo-political uncertainty but the AUD, NZD and CAD, majorly known as the commodity currencies, couldn’t manage to enjoy the greenback’s weakness due to China’s recent efforts to shift orientation towards services sector and softer data-points. Further, Crude prices also marked its first week of decline after EIA forecasted increased supply-glut and threats from US production remained stronger.

It’s Still Not Good For The Greenback

While collapse of German coalition triggered US Dollar’s profit-booking at the start of week, those moves couldn’t last long after the Chancellor tightened her belt to avoid another election and rather tried to persuade other parties to form coalition government, which in-turn helped the EUR to recover its losses afterwards. Moving on, the GBP was also up as fears of Theresa May’s immediate impeachment receded and UK budget sound quite helpful for Brexit, even if the growth forecast was downwardly revised. However, the USD remained weak as Durable Goods dropped, FOMC minutes refrained to hide policymakers’ fear from slowing inflation while confirming the need of one more rate-hike soon and on news that US President again threatened North Korea, in the form of latest sanctions, including three Chinese firms. Additionally, shutdown of Canadian pipeline towards US and depleting inventory helped Crude to post fresh two-year high whereas AUD, NZD and CAD also rose with improvement at commodity desk. At the end, JPY continued marching northwards but the Gold witnessed pullback.

What’s Next?

As the market comes to Thursday, the Thanksgiving Day, US and Japan bourses are closed and there are lesser economics from the rest of the globe to observe. Though, German & EU Flash PMIs, coupled with UK GDP’s Second estimate & Canadian Retail Sales, can entertain investors during the rest of the day while US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI and German IFO Business Climate Index may push trade sentiments on Friday.

Looking at the economic details, both German & EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs are likely to weaken from their previous releases of 60.6 & 58.5 to 60.4 & 58.3 respectively but Services PMIs may help the buyers with 55.2 & 55.3 figures for Germany & EU compared to 54.7 & 55.00 respective priors. Further, gauge of business sentiment into the EU’s largest economy, German Ifo Business Climate, isn’t expected to cause much moves as the forecasts suggest 116.6 figure versus 116.7 earlier. Additionally, Canadian Retail Sales indicate +0.9% advance compared to -0.7% contraction while US Flash Manufacturing PMI could rise to 55.1 from 54.6 prior and the Flash Services PMI may please greenback buyers with 55.5 compared to 55.3 previous figure. At the end, UK’s Second Estimate GDP isn’t likely to change from 0.4% prelim estimate which was higher than the 0.3% growth achieved during earlier quarter.

Scheduled economic details aren’t indicating much for the near-term moves respective currencies but the EUR and CAD may adhere to profit-booking if stated details drop heavily while USD may recover its losses if Friday becomes a good-day with upbeat PMIs.

In case of politics, talks concerning the tax-plan might take the heat and may entertain the USD traders while German Chancellor’s ability to form new coalition government could help the EUR to extend its north-run. Further, GBP isn’t expected to register many moves due to no expected change in GDP and less political noise but the commodity currencies and safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, can close the week on a positive side.

Technical Analysis

Sustained break of 1.1780 indicates the EURUSD’s up-moves to 1.1865-70 with 1.1700 acting as nearby support while GBPUSD again confronts the 1.3330-35 horizontal-area that holds the gate for the pair’s rally to 1.3410 and 1.3260 being adjacent rest. Further, USDJPY broke the 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence region, 111.70-75, but bounced off 111.00 and hence it’s range between 111.75 & 111.00 is likely to prevail. Moving on, USDCAD has 1.2660 to clear in order to meet 1.2600 with 1.2820 being immediate resistance while AUDUSD may find it hard to surpass 0.7640 to aim for 0.7710 with 0.7530 support-mark to watch and the NZDUSD needs to justify its strength by surpassing 0.6900 to target 0.6980 with 0.6840 & 0.6800 acting as nearby supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although absence of US & Japanese traders confined Thursday’s market moves, sudden sell-off in Chinese equities, which many believed was result of on-going weakness in China’s bond market and government’s recent efforts to counter financial risk, entertained the investors’ fraternity. Though, USD wasn’t the one to benefit from it as pressure from FOMC minutes kept dragging the greenback towards south. On the other hand, the EUR managed to extend its north-run with Flash PMIs registering better than forecast numbers while GBP also grew a bit due to latest news indicating Theresa May’s readiness to extend her hands a bit more towards EU demands to let the proceeding go farther. Further, JPY & Gold kept being stronger on sustained safe-haven demands whereas AUD and NZD stretched their short-covering. Additionally, Crude prices flashed fresh two-year high on Keystone pipe-line shut but the CAD had to takes the losses due to slower than expected Retail Sales growth.

Coming to Friday, early-day moves were governed by the return of Japanese players who were left to take advantage of not so optimistic FOMC minutes. Also, sell-off in China and political risk concerning Theresa May’s inability to please EU policymakers when she meets them today in Brussels favored the JPY. On the economic front, narrowing deficit of New Zealand’s Trade Balance couldn’t help the NZD as imports hit record high while better than forecast Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI added strength into the Yen.

Even if US markets are scheduled to open on Friday, after taking a day-off on Thursday, the session will be a shorter one and lack of big releases may keep offering lackluster trading hours to market players. However, German Ifo Business Climate Index and Flash readings of US Manufacturing & Services PMI might entertain investors while political developments at UK, EU & US can keep playing background music.

With the German Ifo mark likely to deviate less from its prior, the EUR may take a step back from its northward trajectory and expected improvement in US figures could help the greenback to recover some of its latest losses. However, the USD is still poised for another weekly loss unless any welcome surprise erupts to please the Bulls. In case of the GBP, Theresa May will try her best to get EU’s support for closing initial Brexit proposal by 2017 end to win investors’ confidence, which seems positive for the Pound; though, German, France and Spain are tought barriers for the British leader to conquer and may disappoint the Cable traders.

Technical Talk

With the EURUSD’s failure to clear 1.1855-60 horizontal-region, chances of its pullback to 1.1800 and then to the 100-day SMA level of 1.1760 become brighter with an upside break of 1.1860 likely fueling the pair towards 1.1910. Further, USDCHF’s recent U-turn from 0.9790 is less expected to sustain beyond the 0.9835-40 area and could fetch the pair to 0.9790 & 0.9770 re-tests. At the end, AUDCAD is another pair which lacks the strength to rise further as the 0.9710-15 and the 0.9745-55 horizontal-regions are still unbroken, which in-turn could drag the quote to 0.9680 & 0.9645 levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Holiday thinned calendar and lack of big releases couldn’t help the US Dollar to safeguard against another weekly loss as not so hawkish FOMC minutes, disappointing Durable Goods Orders and uncertainty concerning Trump’s tax-plan dragged the greenback gauge (I.USDX) towards posting third consecutive negative close on the weekly basis. On the other hand, the EUR managed to recover its early-week losses, based on the news of German coalition collapse, as upbeat PMIs and German Chancellor’s ability to progress faster in forming another coalition government propelled the regional currency. Further, the GBP also strengthened a bit on optimism concerning Brexit while JPY rallied on safe-haven demand but the Gold had to witness profit-booking due to its inability to surpass technical resistance. Moving on, AUD, NZD and CAD all benefited from weaker USD and absence of pessimistic data-points while ignoring a sudden plunge in Chinese equities around later days of the week. Additionally, Crude prices again proved dear to investors with surprise decline in US stockpiles and optimism surrounding this week’s OPEC & other Oil producers’ meet.

Having witnessed not so volatile market sessions during last-week, Monday started the present-week by supporting the USD on the hopes that US President, Donald Trump, will be able to garner enough support to get his bold tax-plan passed in the Senate. Also, news that holiday shopping in US rallied considerably favored the US Dollar to recover some of its latest losses on the hope of December rate-hike. As a result, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD had to trim their gains even if Chinese Industrial Profit detail restored investor confidence into the world’s largest industrial player. Further, the Crude had to dip a bit on increased US rig counts whereas EUR, GBP and JPY remained majorly silent as they waited for important economic clues during the week.

Taking a look at the rest of the day’s economic schedule, US New Home Sales is the only thing that is up for release while speeches from FOMC members, namely Neel Kashkari & William Dudley, may get some attention to predict December rate-change. Moving on, political plays at Germany and efforts of US President to get his tax-plan passed in the Senate, coupled with Brexit related updates, can entertain investors’ fraternity.

While US New Home Sales are likely to flash softer figure, hawkish statements from FOMC members could help the greenback to extend its latest recovery. However, ability of German leader to form another coalition Government could negative affect the USD by supporting the EUR. Hence, with fewer data-points/events scheduled, chances of a softer start to the week are too high. Though, there are too many important details up for release during the rest of the week and the same could offer quite interesting market moves while going forward.

Technical Talk

With nearly two-month old downward slanting trend-line, at 0.6885 now, activating the NZDUSD’s pullback, chances of the pair’s drop to 0.6830 and 0.6785 are higher. Further, USDJPY struggles with 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence, around 111.60-70, to extend its latest U-turn towards 112.00 while failure to do so can fetch the quote to 111.00 re-test. At the end, EURCAD seems also failing to extend its north-run beyond “Rising-Wedge” resistance of 1.5185 and may revisit the 1.5075 support.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

On Monday, a decade high US New Home Sales and upbeat remarks by the to-be Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, helped the US Dollar to start the week on a positive note; though, uncertainty concerning Donald Trump’s tax-plan kept the greenback gains under check. The GBP registered noticeable moves as it initially rallied to eight-week high on optimism concerning Theresa May’s ability to please EU & fasten the Brexit process during mid-December meeting but the currency couldn’t sustain the gains after problems at Northern Ireland questioned the UK’s ability to please it’s political partner. Further, the EUR had to take the losses with no major details/events scheduled whereas JPY and Gold remained strong on prevailing political crisis at UK & US. Moving on, AUD and CAD had to liquidate some of their latest gains on worries about Chinese equities amid government’s run to safeguard financial market but the NZD strengthened with no major reasons except the likely month-end position-related squeeze. At the end, Crude prices dropped from two-year highs as speculations grew that expected increase in Russian Crude output and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran may not easily let the global oil producers to extend output-cut accord beyond March 2018.

While Monday offered shorter economic calendar, the Tuesday has comparatively longer-line of details/events that could entertain global traders. The same started giving the feel of active trading during early sessions when USD again adhered to downside as Mr. President, Donald Trump, is scheduled to hold talks with fellow republicans and democrats to gather support for his tax-plan and also to discuss federal spending plan to avoid government shutdown when the present line of credit expires around December 08. Additionally, Japan’s Kyodo News revealed that the nation found radio signals indicating a North Korean missile-launch after taking halt for few months, which in-turn dragged the JPY a bit down while AUD, NZD and CAD benefited from greenback’s weakness.

Moving forward, many central-bankers, namely BoE Governor, Fed’s to be Chair, BoC Governor and RBNZ, are all scheduled to appear at different stages before their locales and are likely to propel noticeable market moves. While heads of BoE & BoC might hesitate to convey any strong messages for GBP & CAD traders, Fed Chair and the RBNZ’s bi-annual Financial Stability report could become important for their respective currencies. At the economic front, US CB Consumer Confidence and Japanese Retail Sales are data-points that should be observed. Among them, US Consumer Confidence may please USD Bulls after latest private report suggested heavy shopping during holidays but the dip in Japanese Retail Sales may become a concern for the JPY buyers.

With Mr. Jerome Powell less likely to deviate from Janet Yellen’s path, his support for the monetary policy tightening could help the USD but Trump’s ability to garner enough support to back his optimistic tax-plan in Thursday’s Senate vote might keep dragging the greenback towards south. In case of the GBP, present political worries may supersede Mr. Carney’s optimism whereas NZD’s latest advance might be in trouble if the financial stability report continues supporting the present monetary policy amid new government’s uninvited pressure. In all these JPY and Gold are likely to be benefited but recent threats from North Korea may not allow the Japanese currency to enjoy it’s safe-haven status.

Technical Talk

USDCAD’s latest recovery may have to clear the 1.2785 trend-line resistance in order to meet 1.2820 & 1.2855, failing to which can fetch it back to 1.2710 & 1.2665. Further, AUDUSD’s inability to provide a daily closing beyond the 0.7615 TL resistance signals brighter chances of its pullback to 0.7570 & 0.7540 while break of 0.7615 may propel the quote towards 0.7650 & then the 200-day SMA level of 0.7700. Moreover, EURNZD’s U-turn from 1.7150-45 horizontal-line favors the pair’s recovery to 1.7230-40 and then to the 1.7280 but a downside clearance of 1.7145 can flash 1.7110 & 1.7070 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 29 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Be it US Republicans’ ability to push Trump’s tax-plan forward in Senate or the 17-year high Consumer Confidence, not to forget market-friendly speech by the to-be Fed Chair, the US Dollar had it all to post another daily positive closing on Tuesday. It all started with upbeat remarks of Jerome Powell, favoring December rate-hike, in his Senate confirmation hearing and 17-year high CB Consumer Confidence print; however, Bulls were more pleased when Senate Republicans managed to secure 12-11 votes for pushing Mr. Trump’s tax-plan for a full vote in the Senate during the week. Alike USD, the GBP was also buoyed by political news after Telegraph reported that UK & EU policymakers informally agreed to the divorce payment clause the Britain will be paying to the Union, which in-turn removes one major hurdle during the December-month Brexit meeting of the UK & EU leaders.

In case of the EUR, the regional currency had to take the loss due to absence of any major triggers whereas JPY and Gold also declined because of greenback’s strength cutting safe-haven support. Further, Commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, couldn’t confront the stronger USD as pessimism concerning China’s equity market and not so positive RBNZ Financial Stability Report dragged them down while Crude prices remained negative after a surprise increase in API stockpile raised barriers for smooth transition in the looming meet of OPEC & major oil producers.

While market was overtly positive for Republican leader’s ability to push forward tax-plan, news that North Korea test-fired another ICBM after nearly two-month of silence on Wednesday, that is capable of hitting the entire US, rejuvenated broader Geo-political risk. As a result, the USD started trimming some of its latest gains while Gold and JPY recovered from their recent lows; though, absence of strong response from US is something that tamed investors’ worries about the issue. Additionally, start of the global oil producers’ meeting in Vienna also became the concern for energy traders while softer mark of Japanese Retail Sales couldn’t drag the JPY towards south.

Moving forward, preliminary reading of US GDP, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventory are likely important data-points that could entertain market players while geo-political concerns relating to US tax-plan, government shutdown, North Korean threat and OPEC meet might rule the near-term sentiment.

Forecasts suggest a 3.3% mark of US GDP v/s 3.0% advance estimate, the 1.1% increase of Pending Home Sales against 0.0% prior and -2.5M Crude inventory draw compared to -1.9M earlier. Hence, economics are all favoring USD and Crude strength. However, Democrats’ skip of Spending plan discussion with President and expected outburst during the full vote on tax-plan during the week, coupled with stronger threat from North Korea, are the reasons that may curb the US Dollar’s upside. Furthermore, global oil-producers are largely expected to extend the production cut to 2018-end from March 2018, which seems already priced-in; though, an additional clause of holding a review meet in June 2018 to further extend the cuts may hurt the energy quotes. At the end, GBP’s surge shouldn’t be taken for granted as Theresa May is still struggling to hold her power at home and any news of fresh resignation of her party member, which has been a fashion off-late, could drag the Pound again towards south.

Hence, crucial data-points and geo-political developments at US, UK & Vienna will provide enough of entertainment to market-players.

Technical Talk

Even after successfully breaking the 1.3330-40 resistance-region, the GBPUSD has to clear the 1.3400 round-figure in order to aim for 1.3445-50 area whereas a downside break of 1.3330 can fetch the quote 1.3280-75 support-zone. Further, EURUSD’s latest pullback from 1.1825-30 may help the pair to challenge the 1.1900 round-figure while NZDJPY has to clear 77.30 to justify its strength in targeting 77.70 & 78.15 else it can revisit 76.30 & 76.00 support-levels as per the BPC formation.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 30 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

While US GDP & OPEC decisions are already out in the market, coupled with news about Republicans’ ability to put forward Trump’s tax-plan for a full vote in the Senate, Manufacturing PMIs from China, US & UK, together with EU CPI, Canadian GDP & Job numbers, are still left to play their roles during the rest of the week. Additionally, political moves concerning US tax-plan & UK’s Brexit proceedings may also offer intermediate trade moves to investors.

Let’s quickly go through these fundamental aspects to trade better.

Third Weekly Loss Of The Greenback Gauge

Last week was another unfortunate period for the US Dollar as the currency registered consecutive third negative weekly closing on disappointing Durable Goods Orders, not so upbeat FOMC minutes and uncertainties relating to US tax-plan. The same helped the EUR to recover some of its early-week losses and rally on the base of welcome PMI figures whereas GBP traders praised Theresa May’s efforts to get a better Brexit deal. Further, JPY remained favorite of risk-averse traders and the Crude benefited from decline in stockpile ahead of OPEC meeting but the Gold had to decline on profit-booking. Moving on, AUD, NZD and CAD managed to ignore a dip in Chinese equities as absence of negative data-points as home and weaker USD helped these commodity currencies.

Market Welcomed Republicans’ Efforts

Even if US President’s tax-plan is still to become a law, the Republican leader managed to cross two more barriers to put the proposal for a full vote in the senate and that was very much welcomed by global investors. Also, US Prelim GDP rallied by its quickest pace in three years and Consumer Confidence & housing market figures were quite positive, which in-turn helped the USD to recover some of its latest losses. However, greenback gains were kept being in check as some of the republicans are yet to sound positive for Mr. Trump’s tax-plan and the December 08 budget impasse is still hanging, failure of which may partially close the US government then after.

The EUR refrained to decline even with absence of big releases as German Chancellor seems closer to form another coalition after her previous tie-up collapsed whereas GBP rallied to early-October highs with one news-source posting that UK is ready to pay divorce bill to the EU that was considered to be one of the biggest hurdle for smooth Brexit and the Irish border issue is also about to solve. In case of commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, all remained weak due to disappointing data-points at home while Crude also seems failing to justify extension of global production-cut accord as policymakers opted to have another meeting in June to justify the extension. At the end, JPY and Gold both has to mark their south-run with broader market sentiment favoring risk-on mood.

During early Thursday, China’s official PMI managed to surpass forecast & prior and help the commodity currencies a bit whereas dip in Japanese Industrial Production & AU Government’s order to enquire big banks hurt the JPY and AUD respectively. Moreover, U.K. GfK consumer confidence slid to a four-month low but couldn’t hurt the GBP more as some of the EU members praised Theresa May’s recent efforts and sounded positive for their Monday’s meet in which initial Brexit plan may be outlined.

What Next?

Having passed by the aforementioned details/events, investors are likely to investigare more into the US tax-plan’s progress in the Senate during Thursday and Friday wherein the formal debate and vote of 100 members would be taken to make the proposal as law. Also, North Korea recently test-fired another ICBM, which the nation claimed can reach whole of US, after nearly 2 month of halt to its test-series. At the UK front, EU & UK policymakers are set to meet for a formal lunch on Monday wherein both the parties will discuss the fate of first Brexit proposal. In this case, the UK seems ready to pay for the divorce bill and may soften some of its previous border demands but the EU leaders, including that from Germany and France, are likely to ask for more and that may restrict the lunch from being an easy gathering.

At the economic front, Thursday carries, EU Flash CPI, US Chicago PMI & Japanese Inflation numbers while Friday’s UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Canadian GDP & Jobs report may entertain investors going forward.

Looking at the consensus, Chicago PMI indicates a 62.2 mark versus 66.2 previous and ISM Manufacturing points to a 58.4 number against 58.7 earlier whereas the EU Flash CPI may please EUR traders with 1.6% stat compared to 1.4% prior. Further, improvement in Japan’s National Core CPI to 0.8% from 0.7% prior, coupled with no change in the 2.8% Unemployment Rate, could add strength into the Japanese currency while increase in China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI to 51.2 from 51.00 can extend latest pullback in commodity basket. Additionally, Canadian GDP can strengthen CAD with +0.1% mark versus -0.1% earlier while the dip in Unemployment rate to 6.2% from 6.3% may also be welcome. However, less addition of the Employment Change, to 10.0K against 35.3K prior, may become a cause of worry for Loonie traders. At the end, UK Manufacturing PMI could become an additional strong support for the rising GBP with 56.6 expected mark against 56.3 prior

Hence, while US stats may keep offering rosy picture of the world’s largest economy, tax-plan concerns can restrict the greenback’s up-moves. As a result, the EUR and GBP might enjoy strong economic numbers whereas commodity basket could also take a U-turn with likely positive prints from China and Canada.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD recently respected an upward slanting TL support, at 1.1825 now, and can again challenge the 1.1950 resistance if USD weakens during the upcoming sessions. On the contrary, the GBP has already crossed 1.3450 mark and may aim for 1.3550 & 1.3620 with 1.3330 being near-term strong downside support. Further, USDJPY has to clear 112.30 to meet the 50-day SMA level of 112.80 else it can re-test the 111.70-60 area that comprises 100-day & 200-day SMA. Moving on, AUDUSD continued being pushed down by the 0.7590 TL and can rest around 0.7530-15 broad support-zone while NZDUSD’s reversal from 0.6945 TL signals it’s another drop towards 0.6780 with 0.6815 being intermediate halt. At the end, USDCAD surpassed the 1.2780 trend-line resistance and is well in direction to meet 1.2910-15 resistance region but overbought RSI could trigger the pair’s pullback to 1.2820.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 01 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Irrespective of lesser than expected Jobless Claims’ mark and upbeat Chicago PMI, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) dipped negative on the last-day of November as the Republican-led tax overhaul proposal struggled in the Senate. On the Thursday, when debate on the Republican bill started, all of the Democrats straight away registered their oppose by terming it a favor to wealthy corporate; however, Republicans managed to start the debate with opening window for some changes into the raw proposal, like trigger limit. However, the debate ran fierce after the expected effect of the tax-plan to budgetary-deficit was discussed and then it was suggested to re-start the debate the on Friday. Needless to mention that the final vote on the proposal wasn’t even discussed which in-turn could help the bill to become law.

With the USD taking a hit, the EUR managed to benefit from higher than previous reading of EU Flash CPI while the GBP rallied considerably after latest news signaled that EU policymakers are impressed with UK PM’s proposal for Brexit and Monday’s formal lunch may end well. Though, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, were not in a good shape due to continuous worries for China’s equity markets and new efforts to tame financial risk. Further, JPY and Gold both declined with rising equity markets and month-end flows triggering their profit-booking. Moving on, Crude prices remained volatile on global oil producers’ comment to have a June meet to further strengthen the production-cut accord while allowing the extension at present till the end of 2018.

As we start the new month on Friday, US Jobs report aren’t there to please momentum traders but on-going debate on the Tax-plan and the Senate vote could entertain investors. Additionally, UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing & Canada’s GDP & Job’s figures may offer intermediate moves to market-players.

During the start of the day, Japanese Inflation surpassed forecast but the figure is still not even half of what BoJ is planning to achieve, which in-turn further weakened the JPY. In case of commodities, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI spread disappointment with four-month low figure while USD remained under pressure because of tax-plan concerns.

While Canadian and UK details are likely to help respective currencies, US PMI may also follow the recent trend of posting welcome numbers. However, what everybody is looking at the moment is how Republicans can please Democrats to let their tax-plan pass the Senate vote where they hold small majority. If the Democrats continue refrain to respect the opposition’s plead, together with some of the Republicans’ vote against their party’s would-be most important achievement, there would be a big disappointment for the USD. Not only does the failure to get enough vote can hurt the USD, if the debate continues postponing the final vote on the issue, the greenback may start the month on a negative note. Hence, it is crucial to closely observe the U.S. Senate proceedings on tax-plan prior to taking any trade positions for the day.

Technical Talk

Having failed to break near-term TL resistance, USDCHF’s present moves are likely confined by the 50-day SMA level of 0.9850, which in-turn indicates the pair’s pullback to 0.9800 round-figure, comprising 200-day SMA. Further, the NZDUSD seems well set to revisit the 0.6800 and the 0.6770 support-marks while 0.6850 & 0.6910 may offer nearby resistance to the pair. At the end, NZDCAD’s inability to surpass the 0.8885 TL, followed by sustained closing below 50-day SMA level of 0.8845, points towards the pair’s further south-run to 0.8765 & 0.8745 support-levvels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Welcome Consumer Confidence & GDP figures weren’t the only factors that helped the US Dollar to register first weekly positive closing in previous four as Senate Republicans’ ability to forward Trump’s optimistic tax-plan towards being a law propelled investor sentiment in favor of the greenback. However, fresh news concerning former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, pleading guilty to lying to the FBI in connection with his contacts with Russia and agreeing to help prosecutors capped the USD’s rally. Due to this US tax-plan driven trade-optimism and upbeat data-points, rest of the major currencies, including EUR and JPY, became less favorite of market-players but the GBP managed to extend its upside as UK PM is close to prove her Brexit in front of the EU policymakers. Further, the AUD refrained to justify strong print of China’s official Manufacturing PMI, which the NZD and CAD did, whereas CAD has additional back-up in the form of hawkish employment and GDP figures. Moving on, Gold prices declined as a result of greenback’s strength while Crude also pulled itself back from two-year high even after witnessing extended global production cuts as increased US output & rig counts continued threatening energy traders.

Having pleased investors during late last-week, the US Dollar maintained its up-moves at the start of Monday when traders almost ignored the Russian meddling news and rather concentrated on what would be the next in case of US tax-plan and the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the EUR remained a bit weak without any major details but the GBP kept being strong ahead of the lunch-meet of UK PM and European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, which may deliver some good news to the Pound hawks. In case of the JPY, four-year high consumer confidence number helped the currency to recover some of its recent losses while Gold also adhered to profit-booking at week-start. However, NZD, AUD and CAD couldn’t generate buyers’ interest while Crude also dipped on higher US supply issues.

Unlike last-week, which had comparatively smaller economic calendar at the start, Monday’s economic-line is a bit longer with UK Construction PMI & US Factory Orders likely to take the front-seat & Australia’s AIG Service Index expected to offer second-tier moves. Forecasts suggest positive numbers for UK PMI but indications for a contraction in US Factory Orders may not please USD buyers. Further, AU Services gauge recently dropped and repeat of that pattern could provide additional weakness to the AUD whereas JPY and Gold might benefit due to short-covering and political uncertainty at US & UK.

Other than economic details, political moves at US & UK might also provide active trading sessions ahead. In this case, investors might like to know more about how the Republicans and Democrats together build a plan (taking clues from House & Senate results) that would become a law after US President signs on it. Also, developments relating to investigations into Russian meddling during 2016 Presidential election and probable threat from North Korea should also play their roles from time to time. In case of the UK, today’s lunch between the UK & EU leader will be crucial as the same will determine whether the British head is ready to pay a hefty divorce payment to the region and actually has some plans which could please their European counterparts. If Theresa May fails to please hardliner Europeans, clouds of uncertainty targeting December 14 meeting can drag the GBP towards south.

Hence, with political and economical details both likely to remain active, Monday could please investors during their trading schedule.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s repeated failures to dip below short-term ascending trend-line, at 1.1850 now, continue indicating its up-moves to 1.1930 & 1.1965 with a downside break favoring 1.1810 & 1.1750 to appear on the chart. Further, USDCAD has to clear 1.2660-70 horizontal-line to re-visit the 1.2610 else it can keep aiming the 1.2770 & 1.2815. At the end, GBPCAD’s sustained trading above short-term upward slanting TL, at 1.7040 now, signals the pair’s advances to 1.7170 & 1.7210 with 1.6990 being nearby support if the trend-line breaks.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 05 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even if US Factory Orders dropped lesser than forecast, the greenback index couldn’t refrain from registering a daily negative closing on Monday as investors awaited further progress on the tax-plan. The Euro, on the other hand, benefited from hopes that two grand parties of the Germany will form a coalition while GBP couldn’t rally much after Brexit-talk between UK PM & European commission leader failed to overcome the Irish boarder issue. Further, the JPY and the Gold managed to capitalize weaker USD whereas AUD and CAD remained firm on commodity basket strength but the NZD couldn’t ignore 21-month low ANZ Commodity Prices index. At the end, Crude prices also declined on the speculations that US production will continue hurting the global energy desks.

During early Tuesday, comments from the RBNZ’s acting governor revealed that the central bank is getting more flexible in its inflation-targeting, which in-turn raised hopes for a rate-hike and favored the NZD. Then after, Australia’s Retail Sales quickened more than expected and the RBA said it sees rising inflation. As a result, the AUD has been strong since the morning session. Furthermore, British Retail Consortium released details which mentioned increase in UK Retail Sales and the same helped the GBP a bit but the Pound’s overall moves were confined by lack of Brexit progress. Additionally, China’s Caixin released welcome figures of Services & Composite PMIs, which then added strength into the commodity basket.

Having witnessed active start of the day, mainly due to details/events from Australian, New Zealand and China, investors might concentrate more on the UK Services PMI, Trade Balance details from US & Canada and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the rest of the day. However, that doesn’t degrade the importance of ongoing political drama at US & UK.

In case of the US political issue, the Senate and House now need to reconcile a bill which communicates issues passed at both the places and the same signals many barriers from leaders at both the decision houses. Also, fears of US government shutdown haven’t been receded yet because the Congress is still not agreed on the spending plan for which it has the last-chance till December 08. Meanwhile, UK PM may now run to solve the Irish border issue and please the EU policy members to vote in the favor of her Brexit efforts, which in-turn could trigger noticeable GBP moves.

Looking the scheduled economics, UK Services PMI is likely to flash a bit softer figure of 55.2 against 55.6 prior while Canadian Trade deficit may shrink to -2.3B from -3.2B earlier and the same for US could widen to -46.2B versus -43.5B earlier. Also, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI might add weakness into the USD if meeting the 59.2 forecast compared to 60.1 previous.

Hence, while scheduled economics are indicating towards another negative daily closing of the US Dollar and a weaker GBP, developments on the tax-plan & the Brexit could become crucial to watch.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD’s inability to clear 1.3550, coupled with recent pessimism concerning the Brexit, seems dragging the pair towards 1.3380 and then to the 1.3330 with 1.3480 acting as immediate resistance. Further, AUDUSD is struggling with 0.7650-55 resistance-region, break of which can propel the pair’s latest recovery towards 0.7670 and to the 0.7700 while 0.7620 & 0.7590 might offer adjacent rest to the pair if it bounces back from present levels. Moving on, CADCHF is likely clearing the 50-day SMA obstacle of 0.7780 and may aim for 0.7835 & 0.7880 whereas 0.7725 & 0.7700 could please sellers during the quote’s pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

While a nine-month high US trade deficit and a sluggish ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI portrayed downside for the US Dollar, pace of tax-plan developments kept pleasing greenback buyers with the hope of getting Trump administration’s first official victory before 2017 ends. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to register a daily positive closing and hurt the safe-havens, namely the JPY and the Gold. Further, the EUR dipped on soft Services PMI figures while the GBP also weakened as Brexit talks seem stalled after Theresa May couldn’t please EU policymakers over Irish border issue. In case of commodity currencies, upbeat RBA statements and China’s Caixin Services PMI figures helped the AUD and the NZD but decline in Crude prices, due to increased distillate & gasoline stockpiles from API, did hurt the CAD prices.

During early Wednesday, slower than expected GDP growth from Australia dragged the Australian Dollar towards south while strong German Factory Orders helped EUR to recover some of its latest losses. However, the GBP is still on the downside with no major economics scheduled for release while JPY and Gold took advantage of recent pullback in USD.

Moving forward, economic-calendar for the day seems lacking any big releases, except US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, monetary policy meeting by the BoC and the weekly figure of Crude inventories. Forecasts suggest no change in Bank of Canada monetary policy, a bit softer drawdown in energy stockpile and the 189K APD mark against 235K prior.

Although, economic platter seems less entertaining for the day, political issues at US & UK could keep pleasing momentum traders. Looking at US, even if the Republicans managed to push US tax-plan closer towards being a law, the tough final stage, wherein Republicans & Democrats will take clues from House & Senate approvals to determine final tax-proposal, is still pending. Moreover, fears emanating from Government shutdown, if the congress doesn’t agree on spending plan before December 08, become additional burden for the USD optimists. At the UK, Theresa May continues facing trouble, not only from EU policymakers but also from her own party members, and lack of Brexit developments might keep dragging the GBP due to lack of critical data-points.

Given the uncertainty concerning US tax-plan & government shutdown, coupled with Brexit woes, chances of the surge in USD & GBP are lesser while the same might help the JPY & Gold to remain strong. Additionally, EUR can take benefit from the greenback’s decline with the absence of big details curbing its own runs whereas AUD, NZD and CAD could depend upon commodity basket’s moves which also seem nearly empty ahead of Saturday’s Chinese Inflation numbers.

Technical Talk

Having repeatedly failed to clear 50-day SMA, at 112.80 now, on a daily closing basis, the USDJPY seem declining to 111.60-70 region that includes 100-day & 200-day SMA whereas NZDUSD again aims to confront the 0.6930 TL resistance, break of which can help it flash 0.6980 but a drop below 0.6870 can fetch it to 0.6840. Moving on, NZDJPY moves are confined between 77.70 & 77.15 with either side breaks likely flashing 78.00 & 76.90 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 07 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

With the front-line economics from UK & Australia have already disappointed respective currencies’ traders, together with Theresa May’s failed attempt to please EU policymakers over Brexit deal, global investors are more likely to concentrate on the Friday’s US Jobs report and how proceedings of the Trump’s optimistic tax-plan take place. Additionally, fears emanating from US Government shutdown, China’s Inflation figures and British Manufacturing Production could offer intermediate trade opportunities to watch.

Let’s quickly determine fundamentals relating to each of the details/events.

It Was Finally A Good Week For The US Dollar

Having witnessed consecutive three negative weekly closing, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) finally managed to please buyers with a positive close during last week as welcome data-points, including Consumer Confidence, GDP & housing market stats, gathered additional support from Senate Republicans’ ability to push Mr. President’s hawkish tax-plan a step-closer to becoming a law. Due to this, optimistic traders didn’t pay much attention to the news threatening Trump administration over its alleged role in Russian meddling during 2016 Presidential election.

On the other hand, EUR remained sluggish even with better than previous Flash CPI while JPY and AUD had to bear the burden of stronger greenback. Further, GBP maintained its upside with investors believing that UK PM will be able to deliver optimistic Brexit deal during her lunch-meet with EU policymakers whereas CAD rallied due to upbeat GDP & employment details. Moving on, NZD could enjoy China’s better than forecast Caixin Manufacturing PMI but the Crude failed to praise global producers’ accord to extend output cut deal till 2018 with the intermediate meeting in June 2018.

Greenback Sustained Its Strength But Not The GBP

If we take a look at the present week’s Forex moves, the US Dollar didn’t refrain to extend its up-moves even though early-week data-points, including trade balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Factory Orders, flashed soft numbers as global market players remain positive for the Republican’s ability to get the tax-plan rolled before year-end. However, worries relating to the government shutdown, if congress fails to deliver spending plan before December 08, capped the US currency’s rally.

In case of the GBP, the Pound has to liquidate some of its latest gains after Theresa May failed to please European policymakers over her lunch-meet on Monday due to Irish border issue and the frontline PMIs also flashed downbeat figures. Further, the EUR remained weak due to not so positive prints of second-tier data-points whereas Gold was badly affected by the USD’s up-moves but the JPY could recover some of its losses on increased consumer confidence. Moreover, AUD became the victim of disappointing GDP & trade balance figures while the CAD had to decline on BoC’s cautious tone over future policy moves but welcome GDT Price Index & RBNZ Governor’s speech favored the NZD. At the end, Crude prices kept running down after witnessing heavy increase of Gasoline & Distillate inventories.

What’s In For The Rest Of The Week

While majority of the scheduled data-points and events have already rolled out, investors would now concentrate on the monthly release of US Employment report & how Republicans manage to prepare a formal tax-plan combining House & Senate views which will go to the President for being a law. Also, developments concerning Congress’ ability to approve spending plan, in order to avoid government shutdown, and stats from China and UK may entertain short-term traders.

Starting with the Friday’s US Jobs report, the numbers are likely to keep registering mixed signals with NFP bearing a soft consensus & the Earnings indicating an increase while Unemployment being less expected to change. Details suggest Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) might retrace a bit to 200K from its previous surge of 265K while the Average Earnings could rise from 0.0% prior towards marking 0.3% gain. However, no change in expected in the 4.1% Unemployment Rate. It should also be noted the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is also up for release on Friday and is likely to register 99.2 figure compared to 98.5 earlier-stat.

Moving on to the political front, the process of getting Mr.Trump’s Tax-Proposal towards being a law is running fast with both the Republicans & Democrats have already formed their respective committees to discuss which amendments to take from House & Senate. However, the actual work is still left, where in representatives with bargain over why & how any proposal should or shouldn’t be taken for granted. At the end of it, a final paper will roll out to get the President’s sign and then become a law. Other than tax-plan, the North Korean issues and fears relating to government shutdown are still on the card and may anytime propel the market moves in case of adverse outcome.

Hence, while US Job’s report is less likely to offer any disappointment and the tax-plan proceedings are also going well, a stumbling block from Congress’ spending plan & bargain hunting of the Democrats could lead to the greenback’s downside.

In addition to the details/events concerning US, Final version of Japan’s Q3 2017 GDP, UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, China’s Trade Balance and Inflation readings are some other data-points that shouldn’t be missed.

Forecasts suggest a contraction of -0.1% in the UK Manufacturing Production against +0.7% earlier and the higher deficit figure of -11.5B in the Good Trade Balance statement versus -11.3B prior. Further, Japanese GDP is likely to have grown by 0.4% compared to 0.3% earlier estimate while China’s CPI and the PPI could flash worrisome signs of 1.8% & 5.8% respectively compared to their 1.9% & 6.9% priors. Additionally, China’s Trade Balance might also book declining surplus and can threaten commodity traders.

Considering continuation of dovish details from UK & China, coupled with Brexit woes, the GBP & Commodity currencies, including AUD, NZD and CAD, might not gain Bulls’ attention but Japanese GDP & safe-haven flows could help the JPY to remain strong.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, EURUSD is declining towards 1.1700 TL support with the 50-day SMA level of 1.1755 offering intermediate halt but an upside break of 1.1950 could propel it to 1.2100. Concerning the GBPUSD, the pair might revisit the 1.3330-40 support-zone, breaking which it can drop to 1.3280 with 1.3450 being nearby important resistance. Further, 50-day SMA level of 112.80 and the confluence of 100-day & 200-day SMAs around 111.60-70 could limit the USDJPY moves while may keep maintaining its 1.2660 & 1.2920 range. At the end, the 0.7475 & 0.7430 can restrict the AUDUSD’s south-run and may propel it to test 0.7630 again whereas NZDUSD is less likely to depict any major moves unless breaking 0.6780 & 0.6930 levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 08 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Thursday was another good-day for the US Dollar when Jobless Claims driven initial up-moves got a boost after US Government avoided partial shutdown by temporarily extending the funds for two-weeks. The GBP also has the same story as the currency rose in early trading sessions, backed by upbeat Halifax HPI, and was later on rallied with the news that UK PM prepared fresh plan to avoid Irish border issue and win EU assent over Brexit deal during her another meet with the policymakers on Friday. As a result, the EUR was less appreciated by the traders while Gold and JPY plunged due to optimism at UK & US cutting safe-haven demand. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD kept declining because strong USD continued hurting the commodity basket while Crude prices managed to recover some of its losses.

During early Friday, Final reading of Japan’s Q3 2017 GDP surpassed initial forecasts and helped the JPY to witness a pullback while China’s welcome Trade Balance details supported commodity currencies. However, market focus wasn’t diverted from today’s US job market details and Theresa May’s meet to the EU policymakers where her plan to abandon strong Irish border seems praised by the regional heads. Other than the US Jobs report & Brexit developments, UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, coupled with US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, would also offer intermediate market moves.

While today’s US employment details would be the first clear report after hurricane season, importance of the stats are also boosted by their final appearance before next week’s crucial FOMC. Forecasts suggest, Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) might retrace a bit to 200K from its previous surge of 265K while the Average Earnings could rise from 0.0% prior towards marking 0.3% gain. However, no change is expected in the 4.1% Unemployment Rate. Further, UK Manufacturing Production may contract by -0.1% from +0.7% prior and the Good Trade Balance also signal higher deficit figure of -11.5B versus -11.3B prior. At the end, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is also up for release on Friday and is likely to register 99.2 figure compared to 98.5 earlier-stat.

On the political front, UK PM’s progress on Brexit proposal seem stronger than US policymakers’ run to have a compromised tax-plan by considering House & Senate issues. Though, EU policymakers always have the tendency to disappoint GBP buyers and hence until EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker communicates anything positive in his press conference, Pound worries are here to stay. On the other hand, US decision makers have already removed one stumbling block of government shutdown, even if only for two-week, and may now well concentrate on tax-plan, which in-turn give brighter chances of getting another good-news for the USD Bulls soon.

Hence, even if the UK economics might give a drag to the GBP, EU’s support to the initial Brexit plan of the PM may propel the GBP whereas USD is more likely to keep rising on expected upbeat economics & political outcomes.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD again heads to the critical 1.3540-50 resistance-region, break of which can propel it to 1.3610 while 1.3430 & 1.3400 may offer immediate supports to the pair. Further, USDCHF is also running towards 1.0000 psychological magnet with 0.9940 being nearby rest to watch whereas AUDNZD could re-test the 1.0945-55 region but the same might trigger the pair’s bounce towards 1.1045 & 1.1095-1.1100 resistance with a break of 1.0945 signaling the quote’s additional downside to 1.0925 and to the 1.0900.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 11 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Other than US Republican leaders’ ability to escalate President Trump’s tax-plan closer towards being a law, upbeat Jobs report and avoidance of government shutdown were also the reasons that helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post consecutive second weekly gain. In a similar line, the GBP was also in a good shape even after witnessing disappointing PMI figures as UK PM, Theresa May, finally pleased EU authorities to support considering close of initial Brexit plan and progress to trade-talks. As a result, the EUR, which had lesser economics to track, remained weaker in front of both its major rivals, namely USD and GBP, while the JPY and the Gold declined after market sentiment favored risk-on mood. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD couldn’t confront the greenback’s strength and commodity basket’s downturn on China’s latest efforts whereas Crude prices also dropped on higher US rig counts and increase in stockpiles of gasoline & distillate.

While optimism surrounding US & UK helped the market to remain positive during last week, latest news signaled threat to British PM’s Brexit efforts as Irish leaders seem skeptical on May’s promises, which in-turn dragged the GBP towards south as the final verdict on closure of initial talk is still pending to be conveyed. On the other hand, USD traders also remained cautious before the Federal Reserve announces much awaited rate-hike and plot what’s in for the next year while tax-plan proceedings offered little information so far.

In case of latest data-points, China’s inflation numbers remained softer and dragged commodity currencies further towards south but the NZD got a boost on Monday after New Zealand’s finance ministry named Adrian Orr as upcoming RBNZ Governor. Moving on, Japan’s of BIS sentiment of large manufacturers printed welcome figures but the Prelim Machine Tool Orders grew lesser than prior.

Going forward, Monday has very little details on economic calendar for global traders to watch but developments concerning Brexit, US Tax-plan and Fed Rate-hike could keep entertaining investors. In case of scheduled stats, US JOLTS Job Openings and Japanese PPI are both likely to flash softer numbers than prior releases.

At the political front, British Prime Minister will address parliament on Monday and by Tuesday she should be ready with the final version of her offerings to EU in order to escalate the Brexit talks towards trade-pact. In case of US, investors might remain a bit calmer to get a glimpse of what Federal Reserve thinks to do in 2018 when Janet Yellen will no longer be in the central bank while moves from US President, concerning his closing argument for the proposed tax reform on Wednesday, would also be closely observed.

To sum up, slew of important data-points and monetary policy decisions, coupled with political chaos at US & UK, are pushing global market players to remain cautious before final announcements become live.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s latest bounce from 1.1730 seems pushing the pair in direction to 1.1800 and the 1.1830 but a break of 1.1730 could quickly fetch it to 1.1670-75 support-zone. Further, AUDUSD is confronting the 0.7530-35 resistance-area, breaking which it can escalate latest recovery towards 0.7560 & 0.7575 while a downside break of 0.7500 might not hesitate registering 0.7470 as support. At the end, NZDJPY needs to close beyond 50-day SMA level of 78.40 in order to meet the 78.80 and the 79.50 whereas 77.80 & 77.50 may offer immediate supports to the pair if it reverses from present levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 12 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although lack of big releases confined forex moves on Monday, fresh record highs by leading US stock indices, coupled with optimism surrounding Fed’s rate-hike, helped the greenback buyers to ignore a non-fatal explosion in New York. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) extended its previous north-run and the safe-havens, namely Gold and JPY, faced another negative day. The EUR, on the other hand, remained sluggish whereas GBP had to trim some of its latest gains after positivity over Brexit deal faded. Further, AUD and NZD recovered from recent lows on profit-booking but the CAD couldn’t afford to rise due to weakness in Commodity front. Moreover, Crude prices surged on the news of a hair-line crack in North Sea Forties Pipeline System, one of the most important crude pipelines in the world.

While everybody on the floor has a dull-day on Monday, Tuesday knocks the market desk with many important data-points and events. Things started turning against US President’s tax-plan during late-Monday when Treasury Secretary released one-page analysis of the economic and fiscal impact of a Republican tax overhaul plan and the same was criticized broadly. On the UK front, Theresa May would have a hard to convince UK parliament to support her promises to EU and let the trade-talk start soon in 2018.

In case of the economic calendar, Australian Housing price gauge unexpectedly dropped and the Business Confidence rallied during early-day, which in-turn helped the AUD extend its previous gains, while a six-month high of Tertiary Industry Activity gauge from Japan favored the JPY. Moving on, USD witnessed a pullback at the start of the busy-day whereas GBP and EUR managed to remain strong ahead of important data-points scheduled for release during latest part of the day.

Moving forward, headline UK CPI is less likely to deviate from its 3.0% mark but becomes crucial for GBP traders while monthly releases of EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment figures, bearing downbeat forecasts, might again drag the EUR towards south. Further, US PPI is also expected to register same 0.4% mark but a dip in Core PPI, to 0.2% from 0.4%, might hurt the USD.

Not only does the economic calendar has important readings for EUR, USD & GBP, the political plays surrounding Brexit and US tax-plan are also crucial for traders to observe. As Republicans are running faster to get their tax-plan signed by President before 2017 end, latest rift in favor might delay the process and could equally damage the greenback’s surge. Looking into the Brexit, EU leaders seem favoring the Theresa May’s proposal, which also includes softer border norms for Ireland and a divorce payment, but she has to get it approved by the British parliament and that becomes a tough task considering her thin majority.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD’s latest U-turn from 1.3330-20 support-zone might propel the quote to 1.3400 and then to the 1.3430 but a downside break won’t hesitate in flashing 1.3265 as a level. NZDUSD recently cleared seven-week old descending TL, at 0.6930 now, and is struggling with 50-day SMA level of 0.6945 in order to aim for 0.6970 resistance-mark; though, pullback below 0.6930 can again register 0.6880 on the chart. At the end, NZDCAD’s successful break of nearly three-month old descending trend-line resistance favors it’s further upside to 0.8955 and the 0.9000 round-figure with 0.8850 & 0.8815 likely being immediate supports to watch.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

With US PPI data showing signs of a rise in producer prices, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to extend its north-run on Tuesday, which in-turn caused JPY’s additional downside but could do little harm to the Gold as investors preferred covering short positions of yellow metal before the crucial Wednesday. On the other hand, the GBP couldn’t enjoy better than forecast CPI figure as UK PM faces a challenge from her colleagues & opponents over Brexit proposal while EUR also dropped because of sluggish ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers. However, the case is different with AUD and NZD as both these commodity currencies managed to stretch their latest pullback due to recent strength in the commodity basket but CAD refrained from signaling any significant moves and remained weaker on decline in Crude prices. The energy front softened after US EIA, in its monthly report, predicted higher US production while going forward.

After all the aforementioned market moves, global investors welcomed the important Wednesday by cutting their favor for greenback on the news that Democrat Doug Jones beat Republican Roy Moore in a bitter U.S. Senate race in Alabama. As a result, the EUR managed to recover some of its latest losses but the GBP remained weaker on Brexit woes ahead of UK PM’s meet with parliament members to get an assent for her proposal to EU. Further, AUD and NZD secured an extra mile after Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment and New Zealand FPI printed upbeat figures. At the end, Crude prices also took a U-turn on declining API inventory and update that important pipeline leakage may take a bit longer to get repaired while JPY & Gold both strengthened on softer USD and political pressure at US & UK.

Moving forward, global investors eagerly await FOMC decision, scheduled to roll out during the later part of the day, not because of its much anticipated third rate-hike of 2017 but to get the hints of policy outlook for 2018. Additionally, UK Jobs report and US CPI, coupled with US’s official weekly Crude oil inventory details, are some other details/information that traders might be more interested in watching.

Given the 0.25% rate-hike is already a done deal, analysts wished to see how many such moves seem manageable by the Fed during 2018 against three instances in the present year. Observing broader consensus, two rate-hikes are likely to be offered by the FOMC for 2018 considering the Inflation lag whereas chances of a cut in Inflation forecast are also high. In case of other details, UK Jobs report might reveal higher Average Earnings, decline in Unemployment rate and increase in Claimant Count Change while US CPI is likely to please USD bulls with strong stats.

In case of politics, UK PM’s parliamentary showdown concerning Brexit and the US policymakers rush to meet their self proclaimed deadline of Wednesday to have a final tax-proposal could entertain investors. While UK policymakers seem all set to oppose the thin majority holding Theresa May by asking for a right to veto on final Brexit bill, the US leaders are less likely to disappoint Trump who will be delivering his closing argument for the legislation alongside five middle-class families and Republican tax authorities.

To sum up, FOMC’s rate-hike might not get too much attention but Fed signals for 2018, US Inflation and UK employment numbers will surely do. In case of politics, latest blow to the Republicans in Alabama, US tax-plan developments and UK Brexit news could keep making traders busy.

Technical Talk

Considering the EURUSD’s repeated bounces from 1.1730-20 support-zone, chances of the pair’s break of short-term “Falling-Wedge” resistance, at 1.1775 now, on FOMC’s disappointment are too high, which in-turn could propel it to 1.1840 & 1.1880 with 1.1720, the 1.1700 and the 1.1670 acting as nearby strong supports to watch. Further, USDJPY’s inability to sustain 113.10–113.00 region break indicates the pair’s re-test to 113.00 and then to the 50-day SMA level of 112.85 while 113.70 & 114.00 may limit its short-term advances. Moreover, AUDCAD seems finding it hard to clear the 0.9735 TL resistance and may revisit 0.9710 & 0.9690 supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 14 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Having been disappointed by the Federal Reserve, even after witnessing 2017’s third Fed rate-lift and an upwardly revised growth forecast, global investors now concentrate on slew of monetary policy decisions scheduled for release today. Amongst them, ECB is likely to grab major attention with its expected details of tapering plan while BoE & SNB could offer little information. Additionally, political plays at UK & US, concerning Brexit and tax-plan respectively, might deliver intermediate market moves to entertain traders.

Let us start discussing fundamentals for some of the crucial details/events rolling out soon.

What Helped The Markets Last Week?

Last week was another good-time for the USD Bulls as Republicans’ ability to push forward the tax-plan and avoid government shutdown was backed by upbeat jobs report, which together helped posting second weekly positive closing of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The EUR, left with very few details, remained sluggish but the GBP surged on Brexit related optimism and avoided soft PMIs. Further, JPY and Gold remained less favorites due to rising USD & optimism at equity front cutting market’s safe-haven demand while AUD, NZD and CAD dropped because of China’s new measures to control financial markets and weaker economics at home. At the end, Crude marked a negative weekly closing for the second-time on worries concerning US production and higher inventory levels of Gasoline and Distillate.

The Tale of Present Week

Having witnessed noticeable favor for the greenback during last week, the present week has been a bit troublesome for the currency as early-week positively, built by tax-plan progress, was conquered on Wednesday after the FOMC seemed worried for inflation. Even after delivering its promise of third rate-hike of the year 2017, raising growth forecasts and praising the employment scenario, the Fed policymakers couldn’t hide their concerns for inflation while promising three more rate-lifts during 2018 against the investors’ expected four such hikes.

On the other hand, EUR managed to benefit from USD’s downturn, even if EU & German ZEW economic sentiments registered weak figures, whereas GBP struggled to justify welcome Average Earnings & Inflation figures after Theresa May’s Brexit proposal was challenged in the parliament to have an amendment concerning UK policymakers’ veto over final Brexit Bill. Moving on, AUD, CAD and NZD rallied on upbeat data-points and profit-booking while Crude couldn’t praise decline in US Crude inventories and shutdown of major pipeline due to EIA’s forecast for higher US production and increasing stockpiles of Gasoline & Distillate. Moreover, JPY and Gold also strengthened with USD’s decline and political uncertainty helping the safe-havens.

During early Thursday, Australian Jobs report flashed upbeat figures but dent in China’s Industrial Production hurt commodity basket while strong Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI provided additional strength to the JPY.

What’s In For Now?

After all said and done, market players now eagerly wait for the ECB Governor’s speech in favor of the central bank’s tapering plan on Thursday when no rate-change is largely expected. Additionally, Mario Draghi’s comments on the 2018’s growth outlook, coupled with inflation forecasts, will also be the focus for investors. Other than ECB, monetary policy decisions by the BoE and the SNB are also up for release today with both the central banks less likely to offer any changes to present policies. Though, BoE will garner more attention than the SNB as uptick in Inflation and Brexit worries might hinder the path for the central bank’s rate-hike plan.

Hence, while ECB is more likely to help the EUR should Draghi continue remaining a policy hawk, the GBP might weaken if Carney shows his worries for the Brexit and rising inflation. Furtrher, SNB can also praise latest upswing in economics and can help the CHF to rise more.

In addition to the central bankers, EU Flash PMIs, US & UK Retail Sales and US Empire Manufacturing PMI are some of the top-tier data-points that could entertain investors. Forecasts suggest, US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales to rise with 0.3% & 0.7% growth numbers versus 0.2% & 0.1% respective previous but the Empire State Manufacturing PMI may disappoint the USD hawks with 18.1 stat compared to 19.4 earlier. Further, UK Retail Sales, the engine to British GDP, signals a 0.4% growth compared to 0.3% earlier while EU Flash Manufacturing PMI points to a 59.8 mark versus 60.1 and the Flash Services PMI could register 56.1 mark compared to 56.2 earlier.

Economics show altogether a different story than the central bank front wherein EU details could hurt the regional currency but the UK & US stats favor strong GBP & USD going forward.

At the political front, US tax-plan is almost ready for Presidential sign if it crosses the final vote sometime during next week. However, the same is crucial as Senate is the place where Republicans can’t afford to lose more than two votes and Democrats have been opposing the tax-proposal since beginning. In case of the UK, Theresa May’s struggle to please EU policymakers went in vein on Wednesday when parliament members, including some from her own party, asked for the right to veto final Brexit Bill before supporting her to put the proposal in front of the EU leaders to escalate the deal towards trade-talks.

Unlike central bank and economics, politics has been quite worrisome for both the USD & the GBP and hence until US President gets to sign the tax-plan and the UK leader pleases EU policymakers with her proposal backed by parliament, the greenback and the Pound might keep witnessing a downside pressure.

To sum up, while central bankers and economics seems offering a healthy hand to the GBP and a bit to the USD, ECB has to convince buyers to support the EUR. On the contrary, political plays aren’t so supportive of either USD or GBP.

Technical Talk

EURUSD has to clear 1.1880 in order to meet the 1.1960 else it can re-test the 1.1715 and 1.1660 while GBPUSD is likely running to challenge the 1.3500 resistance but failing to break the same can drag it back to 1.3320 & 1.3250. Further, USDJPY isn’t expected to move much unless breaking 113.70 & 111.60 while USDCAD continue witnessing strong resistance from 1.2900 mark which in-turn could fetch the quote to 1.2710. Moreover, AUDUSD has to clear 200-day SMA level of 0.7695 in order to meet the 0.7730 else it can come-back to 0.7550 whereas NZDUSD has 0.7050 & 0.7110 as important resistances and 0.6930 as crucial support.

Have a nice trading-day ……