Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 28 – June – 2018

Hello Traders,

While receding fears of the U.S. policymaker’s break on Chinese investments seem helping the US Dollar off-late, the present risk-off sentiment in the financial markets is likely to remain for longer due to importance of the upcoming events like EU Summit, GDP numbers from US, UK & Canada, followed by China’s official PMIs.

Hence, it becomes crucial to discuss fundamentals concerning each one of them; however, taking a look at recent market performance would be a good start.

Trade Protectionism Hurt The USD

In spite of registering upbeat prints of second-tier economics and hawkish statements from the Fed Chair at ECB Forum, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t stretch its previous gains forward as the U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade-protectionism was harshly criticized by many influential global leaders. On the other hand, the EUR managed to benefit from the USD’s decline and improvement in German & French stats while GBP rallied after BoE’s chief economist favored interest rate-hike. Further, trade-sensitive currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD kept being under pressure due to pessimism surrounding future demand but the AUD recovered some of its prior losses on pullback in metal prices. Going forward, the JPY maintained its place as the much demanded currency at the time of risk-off while the Gold dropped on worries that US-China tussle could hurt the yellow metal’s demand from its big buyer. Additionally, Crude prices rallied on speculation of favorable US summer season and declining US inventories but had to trim some of the gains around late-week when OPEC-led alliance agreed on Russia-Saudi Arabia’s proposal to soften global production-cut accord.

US Retreat Pleases The Greenback Buyers

Although early-week comments from White House representatives did extend the greenback’s loss to Monday, follow-on communications from the policymakers offered a sigh of relief to global trade-watchers when it was said that the U.S. will use less confrontational approach towards China’s investment in its tech-sector. While USD was gaining despite registering not so positive data-points, the EUR had to drop as political problems at Germany, which threatens the Chancellors fragile coalition, dragged the regional currency down. In case of the GBP, the British currency couldn’t sustain its last-week’s gains based on rate-hike concerns as comments from incoming BoE member challenged the central-bank’s rate-hike when the Brexit developments were also not up to the mark.

With the receding tensions of trade-war between the U.S. & China, JPY also lost its charm and witnessed additional downside pressure due to sluggish economics favoring the BoJ’s sustained easy monetary policy whereas Gold has an extra-reason, in the form of strong USD, to decline further. Moving on, AUD, NZD & CAD continued trading southwards because of disappointing data-points from respective economies, RBNZ’s dovish outcome and stronger USD hurting commodity demand. At the energy front, depleting inventory levels and supply shortages at Canada & Libya, coupled with US pushing its allies to stop purchasing crude from Iran, continued pleasing the Bulls.

Crucial Events Ahead…

Given the US announcement to have a less stringent approach towards Chinese investment helps to ease global trade-watchers’ fear, investors might now shift their attention to the slew of upcoming details/events that are crucial enough to fuel market volatility.

Among them, two-day long EU summit, starting from Thursday, takes the headline while GBP numbers from US & UK, up for Thursday & Friday respectively, followed by China’s official PMIs, to be release on Saturday, could hold the second stage of importance. Other than that, Friday’s EU Flash CPI, Canadian GDP & US Chicago PMI are some additional data-points that can entertain momentum traders.

Starting with the EU summit, the EU policymakers will be gathering to discuss wide range of regional problems ranging from immigration to Brexit, not to mention about US trade protectionism. However, no strong action plans are likely to take place due to internal divide between the regional members. In case of Immigration, Germany is being forced to support the creation of an EU budget with standing funds to help immigrants between the regional economies but Angela Merkel’s coalition partners are already against it and may blow the government if Germany agrees to the same during the summit. Moving on to the Brexit, this is likely to acquire lesser highlight considering snail pace of talks but any discussion on Irish border issue and single-market access to UK can help direct the GBP. Coming to the trade issues, the EU recently joined hands with China and said to take joint retaliation measures if Mr. Trump continue on his “America First” agenda. Hence, any talks to take independent action against the US goods, after Mr. Trump threatened EU assembled car-makers, could rejuvenate market fears for trade-wars.

Turning towards economics, the Final reading of US Q1 2018 GDP is likely disappointing the greenback buyers with 2.2% mark against 2.9% print for Q4 2017. Further, UK Final GDP for Q12018 is also expected to confirm initial estimates of 0.1% growth while the EU Flash CPI could help the EUR recover its losses if matching the 2.0% consensus against 1.9% earlier. Moreover, Canadian GDP may keep hurting the CAD as it is likely to print a softer growth mark of 0.1% against 0.3% earlier while China’s Flash PMIs could signal confusing signs as Flash Manufacturing PMI is likely to print 51.8 mark against 51.9 earlier while the Flash Non-Manufacturing PMI could post 55.0 figure compared to 54.9 prior.

As Trump administration’s softer stance against China is presently playing its role in helping the USD in spite of witnessing not so upbeat economics, any disappointments from the GDP can be less harmful to the greenback unless the trade-peace remain in place. However, any disappointments from EU summit for the same factor and/or China’s surprise retaliation might not hesitate dragging the US Dollar southwards, which in-turn could rejuvenate JPY.

The EUR is less likely to regain its strength considering the ECB’s dovish outlook and negative outcomes from the EU summit whereas GBP could also extend its south-run if the EU policymakers remain firm in their demand to UK in exchange of single-market access. Furthermore, the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, might not be able to recover their losses any time soon as USD’s strength & weaker economics from China can continue being negative for them.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD’s reversal from 1.1720-25 signals brighter chances of the pair’s 1.1500 re-test, breaking which 1.1415 and 1.1380 can appear on the chart whereas 1.1640-45 can offer immediate resistance to the pair before fueling it to 1.1720-25 and then to the 1.1790. Further, the GBPUSD is also likely to decline towards testing 1.3030 & 1.2950 with 1.3200 & 1.3290 being immediate important resistances to watch during the pair’s pullback. Moving on, USDJPY struggles in a broader symmetrical triangle between 110.80 & 109.50 with 111.35 & 109.00 being follow-on levels to observing in case of either side breaks whereas USDCAD seems finding it hard to surpass 1.3385 and may revisit 1.3200 if 1.3250 is broker; though, an upside clearance of 1.3385 can propel prices to 1.3430 & 1.3500 resistances. Additionally, AUDUSD has to provide a weekly close below longer-term ascending trend-channel support, at 0.7335 in order to extend its south-run towards 0.7250 & 0.7140 else it can take a U-turn to 0.7440 & 0.7500 levels. At the end, NZDUSD’s D1 close below 0.6775 can make it vulnerable enough to plunge towards 0.6660 while 0.6860 & 0.6950 may limit the pair’s near-term advances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 29 – June – 2018

Hello Traders,

With the softer than expected print of Q1 2018 US GDP and higher than forecast Jobless Claims disappointing USD Bulls during mid-Thursday, EU leaders’ ability to agree on the migration bill further weakened the greenback gauge (I.USDX) towards posting a negative daily close at the end of yesterday. The EUR could aptly justify the success of EU summit’s first-day talks when thorny issue concerning migration-bill was agreed by regional leaders despite Italy’s hard stand. On the other hand, the GBP remained on a negative side as there were no updates for Brexit from EU summit at the end of first day. With the Trump administration’s less confrontational approach to Chinese investments and happy start at the EU summit rejuvenating investor confidence, safe-havens like JPY & Gold declined further whereas AUD managed to recover some of its latest losses due to risk-on sentiment. However, NZD had to bear the burden of dovish RBNZ but CAD took advantage of Crude’s surge based on supply shortage at Canada, Venezuela & Libya.

During early Friday, global traders remained quite optimistic concerning recent positive news out of US & EU that provided additional strength to the EUR and hurt more to the JPY but upbeat prints of Japanese Industrial Production & Unemployment Rate restricted the Japanese currency’s plunge. Moving on, the Gold prices witnessed pullback on USD’s sustained drop whereas GBP also strengthened before headline GDP release. Moreover, the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, also marked gains but Crude kind of stopped from its north-run as worries concerning increased output from OPEC-led alliance regained investor attention.

Despite successful first-day discussions at EU summit fueling investor sentiment, upcoming details/events from EU, UK, Canada & US aren’t likely to lose their importance as some of them are crucial to respective central-bankers’ next policy moves. Among them, Final reading of UK Q1 2018 GDP will be the first to please Pound traders while EU Flash CPI will soon follow the announcement to entertain EUR players. After EU CPI, monthly prints of Canadian GDP, US Personal Spending & Chicago PMI can make investors busy before Saturday’s official Chinese Flash Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Forecasts suggest no change in UK GDP figure of 0.1% and an increase in EU Flash CPI to 2.0% from 1.9% prior. Further, the Canadian GDP might soften to 0.0% from 0.3% earlier whereas US Personal Spending could also flash slower pace of gains by dipping to 0.4% from 0.6%. At the end, the Chicago PMI might not please the greenback optimists as it is likely to register 60.1 mark versus 62.7 previous. For the Chinese PMIs, Flash Manufacturing PMI is likely to print 51.8 mark against 51.9 earlier while the Flash Non-Manufacturing PMI could post 55.0 figure compared to 54.9 prior.

In addition to the data-points, developments from EU summit will also be closely watched as issues related to Brexit and EU’s stand to retaliate against US protectionism are still left untouched.

Given the recent success of EU summit and likely strong figures for Flash CPI, the EUR might reverse it prior losses, which in-turn could hurt the USD when its own scheduled details aren’t expected to post any good news. In case of the GBP, any disappointment from either the GDP of from EU summit concerning Brexit might again drag the Pound to south. In all these, the JPY & Gold may witness downside as improved risk-sentiment hurts the safe-havens whereas AUD, NZD & CAD can take benefit of USD’s decline but negative readings from China may weaken these commodity-linked currencies.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s recent surge on the back EU leaders’ ability to agree on migration deal couldn’t surpass immediate TL resistance, at 1.1665, which in-turn signals brighter chances for the pair’s pullback to 1.1600 & 1.1550 while an upside break of 1.1665 can propel the quote to 1.1720 resistance-mark. In case of the GBPUSD, the pair has to clear the 1.3150 barrier in order to aim for the 1.3230 otherwise chances of its decline to 1.3050 & 1.3000 can’t be denied. Moving on, the CADJPY is also less likely to sustain its upside unless breaking the 83.85-95 resistance-confluence, which in-turn can help the pair rise towards 84.30 & 84.70. As a result, the 83.25-20 and the 82.70 seems regaining traders’ attention at the moment.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 02 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Even if successful agreement over migration at EU summit and not so strong US data-points did hurt the US Dollar during early last-week, Friday’s Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, helped the greenback index (I.USDX) to remain close to positive region on a weekly basis by reaching the central-bank’s 2.0% target on YoY. The EUR, on the other hand, benefited from EU summit & welcome print of Flash CPI but the GBP had to take the losses despite marking better than forecast GDP as uncertainty concerning Brexit kept dragging the UK currency southwards. Moving on, the JPY & Gold had to bear the burden of receding trade-war concerns when US took a less confrontational measure towards Chinese investments. Furthermore, AUD and NZD also declined as weaker stats from China & RBNZ’s dovish stand threatened such commodity currencies; however, the CAD rallied on weekly basis due to Crude’s surge on US stockpile drop & supply outage at Canada, Libya & Venezuela.

While EU leaders manage to agree over migration issues at last-week’s gathering, Germany faced its harsh after-shocks on Monday as one of Angela Merkel’s coalition partner threatened to resign during weekend if the government follows migration rules agreed recently. As a result, another challenge to German Chancellor’s authority dragged the EUR downwards at the start of the week. At the commodity front, sluggish PMIs from China continued spreading worries for further commodity demand and weakened AUD, NZD & CAD while Crude also witnessed pullback on expectations of increased Saudi Arabian output after US President Donald Trump requested the Middle-East nation to do so. Additionally, softer than expected outcomes of Japanese Manufacturing indices further weakened the JPY while Gold couldn’t avoid the USD’s recent strength due to negative developments at rest of the world.

At the trade front, Canada recently announced retaliation to US tariffs and rejuvenated the trade-war concerns between US & rest of the developed world whereas China is waiting for the Friday when first round of US tariffs will be in practice.

Having witnessed the impacts of Chinese & Japanese PMIs, UK Manufacturing PMI & US ISM Manufacturing PMI are still left to propel global market moves when there is a holiday at Canada. Hence, today can better be termed as a Manufacturing PMI day for traders.

In case of the UK Manufacturing PMI, the leader factory gauge may print 54.1 mark against 54.4 and can weaker the GBP further whereas its US counterpart can also soften to 58.2 from 58.7 earlier.

Even if the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to soften a bit, chances of the USD to maintain its latest up-moves are quite brighter. The reason being political pessimism at EU, economic weakness at China and Brexit uncertainty at UK.

To sum up, leading factory growth are likely to offer another volatile trading day together with political & trade related issues but the USD might keep benefitting from its comparative strength then that of its other developed counterparts.

Technical Talk

Notwithstanding the USDJPY’s inability to surpass 111.00, an upward slanting trend-line, at 110.50 now, continue signaling the pair’s upside to 111.00 and then to the 111.40 while a dip beneath 110.50 can reprint 110.00 on the chart. Further, AUSDUSD couldn’t clear near-term descending TL and is indicating 0.7355 & 0.7320 re-test but an upside break of 0.7405 trend-line resistance could fuel the quote to 0.7440. In case of the EURGBP, the pair again failed to conquer medium-term trend-line resistance, at 0.8890, which in-turn favors its pullback to 200-day SMA level of 0.8815 and then to the 0.8790 whereas successful trading above 0.8890 can flash 0.8950 & 0.9000 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Monday proved to be a better start for the US Dollar as political pessimism at Germany & four-month high ISM Manufacturing PMI continued making the greenback favorite among trader fraternity while global trade-tensions fueled the USD against commodity-currencies. However, Trump administration’s another red signal for China, in the form of raising barriers for China Mobile Ltd. to enter into the U.S. market, confined the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) rally. The EUR couldn’t deny German coalition member’s threat to Angela Merkel’s authority whereas GBP failed to portray gains of Manufacturing PMI as Theresa May struggles to collect cabinet members’ assent to her Brexit plan. Further, the AUD, NZD & CAD kept traded southwards due to the fact that weakness in Chinese data-points and global trade-war concerns threatens future commodity demand but the Crude posted a daily positive closing despite US President Donald Trumps’ pressure on Saudi Arabia towards increasing output. The much discussed reason for the Crude’s upside can be supply outage at Libya, Venezuela & Canada. At the end, the JPY & Gold couldn’t enjoy the rejuvenated trade-tussle between China & US as rising USD did dim their safe-haven allure.

During early Tuesday, US trade protectionism became talk of the town when US President said WTO hasn’t treated the U.S. properly and he may have to do “something” to sort the issue. The sentiment got boosted when Mr. Trump downplayed EU leaders’ readiness to retaliate against his order to investigate EU assembled cars on national security issues around late-May.

At EU, political drama at Germany stopped when Angela Merkel’s party reached a deal with coalition members to safeguard against illegal immigrants, which in-turn receded the fears of one key policymaker’s resignation. As a result, the EUR recovered some of its latest losses and did hurt the US Dollar a bit.

With the USD’s pullback, commodity-linked currencies witnessed short-covering wherein AUD was a big gainer as RBA, even without altering its present monetary policy, praised weaker currency’s support for the export-oriented economy. In case of Crude, energy prices extended their north-run as Libyan Geo-political crisis worsened while the Gold ticked up but the JPY couldn’t due to BoJ’s sustained favor for loose monetary policy on the back of weaker economics.

Looking forward, UK Construction PMI & US Factory Orders are the only stats scheduled for publish on economic calendar wherein the UK PMI may strengthen a bit to 52.6 versus 52.5 earlier and the U.S. Factory Orders may reverse their earlier -0.8% contraction with +0.1% growth.

Given the lack of big data-points on the card, recently rejuvenated trade-war concerns could offer an active trading-day to market players but the USD may adhere to profit-booking if global leaders exert pressure on Mr. Trump to relinquish control over macro trade-system. While USD may decline due to trade issues, the EUR, the GBP and commodity currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD may benefit from it while JPY seem to less affected unless receiving any strong signs from the BoJ policymakers.

Technical Talk

Short-term symmetrical triangle is likely to confine EURUSD’s immediate moves between the 1.1680 & 1.1570 but overall weakness on the pair signals the quote’s downside to 1.1540 & 1.1500 on the break of 1.1570. On the contrary, an upside break of 1.1680 can trigger the pair’s recovery towards 1.1725 & 1.1750 resistances. Further, the GBPUSD also struggles in 1.3185 & 1.3110 region with either side breaks signaling 1.3210 & 1.3050 to appear on the chart. It should also be noted that AUDNZD cleared an important resistance-line, at 1.0920 and also surpassed the 1.0960 barrier, which in-turn can escalate its rally to 1.1000 & 1.1050, while a downside break of 1.0920 may pull the prices back to 1.0900 & 1.0920.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. & China gained additional support on Tuesday when the Dragon nation banned chip sales by the former’s firm Micron Technology Inc. in the country despite American signal to let China’s ZTE Corp. resume some of its businesses. Additionally, around 40 global countries, including 28 from EU, complained against Mr. Trump’s “America First” agenda at WTO forum while China is pushing Euro region to issue a joint retaliation against the U.S. trade protectionism.

As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) registered losses even after posting welcome Factory Order growth whereas commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, benefited on the expectations that global pressure may push Donald Trump to lessen his grip over trade-terms, which in-turn could result increased future demand. Among them, AUD had an additional advantage when RBA said weaker currency favors export-oriented economy while CAD strengthened when Crude prices extended their rally on the back of API stockpile release. Moving on, the JPY & Gold also strengthened as global-trade pessimism favored safe-havens whereas EUR recovered some of its latest losses when German row over migration pact resulted into a happy-ending with coalition’s support. At the end, the GBP also remained firm as the UK Construction PMI posted 2018 highs.

While trade-tussles kept making investors busy on Tuesday, Wednesday might find absence of US traders being a barrier to liquidity. However, Mr. Trump is yet to respond to the global pressure and he won’t miss a chance when he comes back from holiday on Thursday. Hence, such speculations may keep entertaining market-players. It should also be noted that presence of UK Services PMI, engine to British GDP, might add strengthen trade-sentiment.

At the start of the day, global traders witnessed lack of US players but upbeat AU Retail Sales & Trade Balance figures, followed by four-month high reading of China’s Caixin Services PMIs, further propelled the commodity basket. With this, the AUD, NZD & CAD extended their latest recoveries while Crude kept rising on expectations that official US stockpiles may follow API’s dip and please the energy Bulls at the time when supply disruptions at Canada, Venezuela & Libya are gaining attention.

Given the global policymakers’ expected retaliation likely to dim the importance of U.S. absence, safe-havens and commodity-linked currencies might stretch their recent up-moves while GBP’s moves depend upon how well the UK services PMI’s forecast of 54.0 unchanged mark justifies itself. For the EUR traders, political improvements at Germany and row against the U.S. can help the regional currency but ECB’s comparative weakness against the Fed may challenge the Euro’s strength.

Technical Talk

NZDUSD seems ready to confront the 0.6790 TL resistance, breaking which 0.6825 & 0.6850 can appear on the chart whereas 0.6730 & 0.6685 can keep limiting the pair’s near-term declines. In case of the USDCHF, the pair’s U-turn from 0.9990 may find a reversal spot around 0.9890, comprising ascending trend-line, which in-turn can flash 0.9940, 0.9960 & 0.9990 on the chart; though, failure to respect the 0.9890 support may print 0.9855 on the chart. Further, the EURCAD’s dip beneath a month-long ascending TL is soon likely to be challenged by the 50-day & 200-day SMA confluence of 1.5275-70, breaking which 1.5200 should be targeted if holding short positions while 1.5365 & 1.5400 can entertain the counter-trend traders during the pair’s pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 05 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

While US holiday & investors’ fear before planned implementation of punitive trade-tariffs have confined global market moves so far during the week, the upcoming FOMC minutes, US jobs report and the final day on which the U.S. raise barriers for Chinese goods could offer volatile sessions going forward. In addition to this, US ADP Non-farm Employment Change, Canadian Employment numbers & Ivey PMI, together with the recent news that North Korea hasn’t done anything as agreed with US during Singapore summit, may also provide extra busy schedules to traders.

Let’s start discussing fundamentals for each one of them.

Volatile Week Ended On A Positive Note

The US Dollar was near to register its second consecutive negative weekly closing till Thursday as sluggish data-points and success of EU summit dragged the greenback southwards but then upbeat print of Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, strengthened speculations concerning the Federal Reserve’s more rate-hikes and helped greenback to remain positive by the weekend. On the contrary, the EUR remained strong on the back of regional leaders’ ability to agree on migration deal, together with strong EU Flash CPI, whereas the GBP had to bear the burden of Brexit uncertainties. Further, the safe-havens like JPY & Gold kept being vulnerable after US took less confrontational approach towards Chinese investments while the CAD managed to surge on the Crude’s rally that took advantage of US stockpile’s drop. Additionally, the AUD & NZD kept being weaker as disappointing stats from China and dovish comments from RBNZ played their roles in dragging these commodity-linked currencies down.

Subdued Trading Since The Start

With the absence of US players from trading on Wednesday and lack of big releases, except from UK, trade-sentiment remained subdued since the start of the week. However, the USD is in the negative region so far since the week-start even after registering welcome prints of second-tier numbers as receding political tension at Germany & global policymakers’ signal to retaliate US trade protectionism threatened the greenback Bulls. In case of the EUR, the regional currency troubled to justify political peace at Germany due to not so positive economics. It should be noted that the GBP is the stronger one at the moment with upbeat headline PMIs while the Gold also recovered some of its losses on trade-war fears emanating from US. Though, JPY kept being weaker due to BoJ’s sustained favor for the loose monetary policy and commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, are also on the downturn because of speculations that global trade-war could hurt future demand of commodities.

Active Days Ahead…

Contrary to lack of market moves till now, slew of upcoming crucial details/events are likely to fuel the trade volatility going forward. Among them, Thursday’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & FOMC minutes, followed by Friday’s US Jobs report, activation of US tariffs on China and Canadian employment stats are likely to gain high attention.

Starting with the FOMC minutes, the Fed policymakers did agree to announce second rate-hike during its latest meeting and also raised their dot-plot, signal for future rate-lifts, towards four such actions for 2018 then previously promised three. Investors will closely examine as to how many FOMC members are in favor of the four rate-hikes and whether there is something more to be happy about the US economy from the minutes to determine future moves of the Federal Reserve.

Moving on to the Employment stats, the first US Job indicator, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a precursor to the NFP, might push investors to be more optimistic about the US labor market if matching the 190K forecast against 178K earlier. However, the crucial Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) could disappoint the optimists if matching 195K forecast against the 223K earlier. Additionally, no change is expected to take place in 3.8% Unemployment Rate & 0.3% Average Earnings.

In case of the Canadian Job stats, Employment Change may reverse previous contraction of -7.5K with +20.4K while the Unemployment Rate isn’t likely to change from 5.8%. Also, the Ivey PMI might keep Loonie Bulls intact should it mark 63.2 figure compared to 62.5 prior.

Coming to the trade front, the Trump administration is all set to levy punitive tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese good starting from Friday and the China is also ready to retaliate with the same efforts. However, China has recently denied that it won’t be the first to start the trade-war and will wait for the US levies to be announced officially before pushing the button. During the week, US has given some room to China’s ZTE corporation to resume its business in America while raising barrier for China Mobile Inc. but the dragon nation disappointed Mr. Trump more by banning US company Micron Technology Inc from its country and joining hands with major global leaders to retaliate against trade protectionism.

At the Geo-political level, North Korea seem taking a back-foot from its promise of complete denuclearization agreed during Singapore summit as latest news suggest that Mr. Kim Jong Un added some more factories into his nuclear arsenal. Hence, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, is in North Korea to discuss the progress on Singapore agreements between the U.S. & Pyongyang.

To sum up, investors are all attentive to the developments at Sino-US trade-war, which if goes as shown, could become negative for global economy and the USD as well but the JPY & Gold may benefit from the same. However, strong US jobs report and Trump’s expected dominance over North Korea might limit the greenback’s downturn.

For other majors, EUR doesn’t have more triggers than to portray counter-moves by the USD whereas commodity-currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, can continue remaining weak due to global trade-pessimism and economic weakness at China but the Canadian Dollar can become least affected mainly because of Crude’s strength.

Technical Analysis

Break of short-term symmetrical triangle can help the EURUSD aim for the 1.1760 trend-line, breaking which 1.1850-55 may entertain the buyers while the 1.1645, the 1.1580 and the 1.1500 could restrict the pair’s near-term declines. For GBPUSD traders, the 1.3300 and the 1.3330 seem adjacent resistances to break ahead of aiming the 1.3410 & 1.3450 whereas the 1.3150, the 1.3080 and the 1.3050 may become important supports on the downside. Moving on, USDJPY has to clear the 111.40 barrier in order to aim for 112.10 else 110.20 & 109.80 could play their roles as strong supports; however, the case is different for USDCAD where 1.3110 & 1.3050 are likely upcoming levels for the pair during its further south-run with 1.3200 & 1.3260 being nearby resistances to watch if prices take a U-turn from present levels. Further, AUDUSD couldn’t sustain break of immediate TL resistance and signals 0.7320 & 0.7300 re-test with 0.7410 & 0.7470 acting as strong upside resistances. At the end, NZDUSD needs to conquer the 0.6860 to revisit the 0.6920 mark otherwise its drop to 0.6685 & 0.6630 can’t be denied while USDCHF seems in a range-bound condition unless trading between 0.9990 & 0.9890 with either side breaks favoring 1.0040 & 0.9820 to appear on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Return of US traders from holidays couldn’t please the greenback buyers as FOMC minutes, even after reassuring upbeat economic situation & gradual rate-hikes, remained mostly neutral because of some policymakers that remained divided over how many rate-lifts could take place in 2018 and is there any risk of recession looming on the world’s largest economy or not. Adding to that, upbeat Germany Industrial Orders and ECB members’ inclination that end of 2019 is too far a time to introduce rate-hikes at EU fueled the EUR & dragged the USD southwards. In case of the GBP, the British currency surged during early-day trading when BoE Governor mentioned he was confident that an economic slowdown was temporary but looming uncertainty over the Brexit and challenges faced by the UK PM fetched the Cable down at the day-end.

Commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, and the Gold benefited from the USD’s decline but the JPY remained sluggish on monetary policy divergence between the BoJ & the Fed. Moving on, Crude prices registered negative daily closing for the first-time in July as surprise rise in US stockpile and Mr. Trump’s pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase oil production disappointed energy traders.

While US traders failed to witness a warm welcome on Thursday, Friday offered an active start to global investors when the U.S. formally announced tariffs on more than 800 Chinese goods $34 billion with the readiness to offer another list of residual $16 billion worth of items to hurt the dragon nation by $50 billion of tariffs. The U.S. President went a step ahead and has ordered the USTR to identify another $200 billion of Chinese products on which to possibly levy duties. As a result, Mr. Trump is targeting $550 billion tariffs on China, just over its 2017 deficit with the world’s second largest economy. In retaliation to the U.S. tariffs, Chinese authorities also announced $34 billion worth of goods that can bear extra-burden due to Donald Trump’s trade-protectionism. However, official announcement from the Chinese policymakers are still in pipeline. Hence, how China responds to US tariffs & threats by Trump administration seems a crucial even of the day.

Not only the actual beginning of Sino-US trade-war, investors have many other important details/events that could offer a volatile trading-day to market players during Friday. Among them, British cabinet meeting by the U.K. PM to gather support for her Brexit Plan, monthly readings of US & Canadian Job numbers and Geo-political tensions between the US-Iran could become highlights.

Starting with the UK Cabinet meeting, PM Theresa May is ready to propose new plan to please his cabinet members which are divided over UK’s trade status with EU after Brexit. Mrs. May faces a tough challenge of not only securing a majority at home but to assure EU policymakers who strongly wish to maintain their customs region intact unless heavy duties being paid by the British.

Looking at the Employment front, job numbers from US & Canada are both likely to print positive marks but may have higher repercussions from greenback that Loonie as Fed is already on the monetary policy tightening while BoC is still a bit far from that goal. Forecasts suggests US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) could mark a soft numbers of 195K against the 223K earlier whereas no change is expected to take place in 3.8% Unemployment Rate & 0.3% Average Earnings. In case of the Canadian Job stats, Employment Change may reverse previous contraction of -7.5K with +20.4K while the Unemployment Rate isn’t likely to change from 5.8%. Also, the Ivey PMI, up for release late today, might keep Loonie Bulls intact should it flash 63.2 figure compared to 62.5 prior. Hence, overall economics are good for both USD & CAD with USD likely to remain stronger as NFP remains well near the 200K mark and Fed is hawkish.

At the Geo-political front, Iran recently threatened US that it can block all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Navy responded with statements that said it stood ready to ensure free navigation and the flow of commerce. Hence, any disturbance to commerce by Iran near its strategic waterways could trigger tension among global investors. It should also be noted that after the U.S. withdraw from Iran deal, EU is taking over with rest five countries to progress in the Iran energy deal but the middle-east nation said it isn’t satisfied by the EU’s vague promises and may not sign the deal unless it is being compensated from US sanctions.

To sum up, China-US trade-tussles seemed to have responded by now and investors may shift to employment numbers and other Geo-political factors emanating from UK & Iran to determine rest of the day’s moves.

Given the upbeat expectations from employment figures, the USD might extend its up-moves but global trade-war concerns could confine the greenback’s rally which may also hurt the CAD and restrict its upside after strong job figures, if any. In case of the EUR & GBP, response to Theresa May’s Brexit plan at cabinet meeting and EU’s ability to please other nations to sign a deal with Iran can portray Pound & Euro moves. In all these, safe-heavens like JPY & Gold may gain but the BoJ’s dovish stand can challenge the Yen’s strength.

Technical Talk

In spite of clearing immediate TL resistance, the EURUSD might find it hard to surpass the 1.1745-50 area comprising 50-day SMA & nearly two-month old descending trend-line, which if broken could further escalate its recovery to 1.1820 & 1.1850; though, failure to do so can quickly fetch the quote back to 1.1670 & 1.1630 supports. Further, USDCAD’s sustained trading beneath the 1.3210-1.3200 region signals brighter chances for the pair’s 1.3100 & 1.3050 re-test while an upside break of 1.3210 can have 1.3260 & 1.3330 as follow-on resistances to watch. Moreover, EURJPY has to provide a daily closing beyond 129.70 trend-line and 130.30 mark, including 100-day SMA, if it is to justify its strength otherwise 50-day SMA level of 129.10 and the 128.50-45 can come-back on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

In addition to confusing job numbers & not too hawkish FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to bear the burden of Sino-US trade-war and global criticism for Mr. Trump’s “America First” agenda during last-week. As a result, the EUR extended its latest up-moves backed by news that German coalition is almost out of danger which threatened Angela Merkel’s leadership. Moving on, the GBP benefited from upbeat PMIs & Theresa May’s ability to get cabinet approval for her Brexit plan whereas JPY & Gold took advantage of the greenback’s decline. Further, the commodity currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD registered noticeable gains as sluggish USD & welcome data-points at home played their roles while surprise hike in US oil inventories couldn’t restrict the Crude’s north-run as supply outage at Libya, Turkey & Canada kept being in highlight.

While trade-wars between the world’s two largest economies raised worrisome signs for global investors during last-week, start of present week proved to be a quite optimistic one as traders ascertained positive outcomes of Trump’s EU visit and upcoming earning reports from big enterprises. As a result, the USD recovered some of its losses, which in-turned triggered profit-booking of JPY & Gold, but the EUR managed to hold its gains based on welcome trade-balance numbers from Germany. Looking at the commodity-currencies, AUD & NZD kept being stronger due to upbeat commodity-front while CAD dropped on fears emanating from NAFTA talks with the U.S. It should also be noted that Crude prices kept being strong as comments from OPEC Chair neglected US President’s pressure on the cartel to increase output whereas supply shortage at Canada and workers’ strike at Norway provided additional strength to the energy hawks. At the data-front, welcome readings of Chinese headline inflation numbers became extra boost for the Aussie and commodity front.

On the top of aforementioned details/events, one thing that drove markets was the political pessimism at UK. The reason being unexpected resignation of three top-notch policymakers from Theresa May’s team since weekend, namely Foreign Secretary, Brexit Secretary & his deputy, after they chose to show their revolt over Mrs. May’s proposed closed ties with the EU after Brexit. With this, the GBP plunged against majority of its counterparts.

Given the recent challenge to Theresa May’s leadership, Pound traders are less likely to extend their support for the British currency but expected strength of UK Manufacturing Production, to +1.0% from -1.4% earlier, and reducing trade deficit to -11.9B versus -14.0B can limit the Cable’s plunge. For the EUR, ZEW Economic Sentiment may disappoint regional currency traders as German gauge is bearing forecast of -17.9 against -16.1 prior while that of EU may dip to -13.2 from -12.6.

Hence, with the receding trade-related fears and optimism surrounding upbeat earnings report may keep pleasing optimists, political pessimism at the UK, coupled with British Manufacturing Production, Goods Trade Balance & EU ZEW Economic Sentiment, can offer a volatile trading day to market players.

Technical Talk

Even if 50-day SMA & political pessimism at UK confined the GBPUSD’s recent recovery, an upward slanting trend-line, at 1.3210, seems an immediate important support for the pair. Should the pair drops beneath the 1.3210, it can test the 1.3150-45 while the 1.3280, the 1.3310 & the 1.3350 may challenge short-term buyers. In case of the USDJPY, the pair is again aiming to confront the 111.40 resistance, breaking which 112.00 can appear on the chart whereas 110.80 & 110.30 could offer nearby support during its pullback. Additionally, NZDCAD’s break of 0.8965-70 region indicates the pair’s extended recovery towards 0.9015 & 0.9030 but a dip beneath adjacent TL, at 0.8940, can drag prices to the 0.8890 number to south.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 11 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

The early-week optimism surrounding corporate earnings couldn’t last long as release of new U.S. list containing Chinese goods worth $200 billion to bear additional 10% tariffs rejuvenated trade-war concerns between world’s two largest economies and triggered risk-off sentiment. However, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) remained on the upside as disappointing EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and welcome JOLTS Job Openings kept pushing investors towards the greenback than its European counterpart. On the other hand, the GBP recovered some of its latest losses due to upbeat Manufacturing Production and monthly GDP stat while NZD benefited from China’s inflation numbers but AUD couldn’t enjoy the same as renewed threat on its largest consumer, China, damaged commodity prices and Aussie. Moving on, the Canadian Dollar closed with no major changes as strong Crude prices was favoring the Loonie’s upside but threat to commodity basket and Canada’s recently bitter relationship with the U.S. kept hurting the CAD. Additionally, extended decline in API stockpiles supported the Crude prices while JPY & Gold had to bear the burden of stronger USD but CHF remained strong due to its safe-haven nature.

Following the release of new tariff list from Trump administration, global markets remained under pressure during Wednesday, which in-turn favored the USD and kept punishing the JPY & Gold. The EUR and the GBP was also in pressure ahead of the WTO ministers’ two-day meet at Geneva where US & EU, together with some other developed nations, might join hands to complain against China’s unfair trade practices. In case of commodity-currencies, the AUD & NZD dropped on worries relating to US-China trade-war whereas Crude dropped after news broke that US may approve requests from some countries to not have punitive measures if they do business with Iran after the U.S. sanctions activate in November. Moreover, the Canadian Dollar also weakened ahead of the monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada (BoC) where the Canadian central-bank is all set to announce a 0.25% rate-hike.

While new list of US tariffs, WTO ministers meet and BoC are in highlight today, one thing is bearing higher probabilities, i.e. weakness of commodity-currencies. It is mainly because in all these events China is the one which is expected to be hurt after US tariffs and WTO decision, if any, while CAD may also decline further if BoC adheres to dovish hike.

Consensus suggest that escalating US protectionism could continue hurting the Chinese economy for a bit longer than expected while combined complains from developed world economies may push WTO to rethink on its old decision to allow China to join the union. In case of the BoC, the central-bank has all the reasons, in the form of higher inflation, welcome GDP & upbeat employment stats to announce a rate-hike and favor many more in future. However, its recent tussle with the U.S. and OPEC’s threat to divert oil investment towards US if the Canadian policymakers fail to upgrade their energy transmitting infrastructure can cause Mr. Governor to sound a bit cautious during his press conference.

Hence, while US tariff list and WTO ministers meet are likely to acquire front-seats of market attention, BoC will also be crucial for the CAD traders as Governor’s speech will direct the bank’s next moves.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD’s U-turn from 0.7480 signals brighter chances for the pair’s dip towards 0.7360, breaking which it can re-test the 0.7310 support-mark while 0.7440 can act as immediate cap for price-rise before highlighting the 0.7480 as a resistance. Further, NZDUSD also reversed from near-term descending TL and can drop to 0.6790 support prior to aiming the 0.6745 rest-point; though, quote’s break of 0.6840 trend-line can trigger its recovery to 0.6885 & 0.6900 round-figure. As a result, AUDNZD dip beneath the short-term ascending TL, at 1.0880, and may visit 1.0855 & 1.0840 supports while 1.0925-30 & 1.0960 can keep limiting the pair’s short-term upside.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 12 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

While short-lived lull in Sino-US trade-war and upbeat US PPI helped the USD to recover most of its last-week’s losses, developments concerning WTO ministers’ meet, Theresa May’s new Brexit plan and US CPI could play their role in entertaining market-players going forward.

Let’s discuss fundamentals relating to each one of them.

Lack of Supportive Factors Dragged The USD Downwards Last-Week

Not only Fed policymakers division over how many rate-hikes can take place in 2018 despite upwardly revised dot-plot but sluggish job report and rejuvenated US-China trade-war dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) towards a negative weekly closing. The EUR, on the other hand, benefited from the greenback’s decline and political peace at Germany whereas Theresa May’s ability to get her Brexit proposal passed at Cabinet & welcome UK PMIs propelled the GBP. While activation of trade-tariffs triggered risk-off sentiment, the JPY & Gold benefited from the same when the USD was weak whereas AUD & NZD took advantage of China’s positive numbers & recovery in commodity basket. In case of the CAD, dropping US crude stockpile & global supply threats helped Oil prices extend its north-run, which in-turn was aptly enjoyed the Loonie as Crude is Canada’s highest export-earner.

Tale of Ups & Downs In Trade-Tussles And Latest Economics

Even if US & China began the formal trade-war at the end of last-week, investors felt a sigh of relief at the week-start as expectedly positive outcome of earnings season and US President Donald Trump’s EU visit spread optimism among market-players. However, the same couldn’t last-long when Trump administration released fresh list of $200 billion worth of Chinese products to bear additional 10% duties starting from September. The same did threatened the recent recovery in commodity-linked currencies while the US Dollar managed to rally as EU’s ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers were disappointing. Adding to that, US PPI marked the strongest gain in more than six years and strengthened speculations favoring increased pace of Fed rate-hikes, which then helped the US Dollar to post across the board rally. As a result, the JPY & Gold had to plunge whereas AUD, NZD & CAD dropped on worries for their future demand based on commodity-basket.

Looking forward, the GBP again came under pressure when Theresa May is ready to propose another plan, after two of her leading policymakers resigned, that offered different trade treatments to Goods & Services after Brexit and is less likely to be accepted by their EU counterparts. At the end, the EUR couldn’t digest Mr. Trump’s angst against Germany over its Russian pipeline project and the greenback’s strength whereas Crude prices dropped heavily despite US declining US inventory details as pessimism at trade-front and Libya’s readiness to re-start exports challenged energy Bulls.

Review of China Trade Policy, US CPI & Theresa May’s ‘New’ Brexit Proposal Are Crucial

Having witnessed sustained market support for the USD, despite trade-wars, coupled with welcome PPI, investors are preparing to conquer the upcoming week based on various Eco-Politico factors. Amongst them, Thursday’s monthly reading of US CPI and Theresa May’s presentation of new Brexit plan, followed by review of China’s trade policy at WTO and US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday, could become highlights for rest of the week.

Starting with the crucial price-gauge for the U.S., the CPI, the inflation indicator is likely follow PPI’s foot-steps and may strengthen Fed’s outlook for two more rate-hikes during the month. The CPI (YoY) is bearing consensus to post 2.9% growth against 2.8% prior while MoM figure may remain unchanged at 0.2%. For the Core CPI, yearly figures may register 2.3% mark compared to 2.2% earlier with no change expected for monthly stat of 0.2%. Hence, while monthly numbers are more likely to remain stable, yearly figures can please the greenback Bulls if meeting market expectations.

Moving towards the UK PM Theresa May’s ‘New’ Brexit plan, Mrs. May seems tired of her colleagues’ arguments over free customs region for Goods after Brexit and hence thought of challenging them with 100-page proposal for a different treatment to services which accounts for majority part of the British GDP. In her proposal, Mrs. May can put forward a different treaty for UK-EU and UK-rest of the world services’ trade while the goods trade between Britain & EU may not have any restrictions. However, there are still many other issues except the customs region, like Irish border, details of European Court of Justice and many other plans that EU & UK have jointly started, that can make her future leadership continuously worrisome.

Coming to Friday’s WTO’s review of China’s trade policies, US President has already blasted at WTO by saying that the union isn’t capable of reckoning China’s trade-tactics. However, the global trade union has offered a strict review of the dragon nation’s trade policies when not only US but EU, Japan & some other developed world nations have also complained against China’s unfair trade practices. Hence, if China is found guilty of treating its trade-partners unfair, US may have an added advantage while bargaining with the Chinese authorities to loosen its trade-restrictions. Moreover, China may find it hard to sustain amid global competition and trade-restrictions and may end-up hurting the commodities and commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD.

At the economic calendar, China’s Trade Balance release is likely to start Friday with another negative sign for commodity traders if matching 188B surplus against 157B prior as increasing surplus can raise problems for the nation specially at the time when global leaders are against its trade policy. In case of the U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, the consumer confidence gauge may soften a bit to 98.1 from the 98.2 mark posted last-month.

To sum up, China is likely to have tough days ahead be it expected negative developments at WTO or from the U.S., which in-turn can further drag the commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD downwards. The USD, on the other hand, may gain as upbeat inflation and growing acceptance of Mr. Trump’s tough stand against China can keep pushing traders towards greenback.

Further, political problems at Britain may keep hurting the GBP whereas EUR, JPY & Gold may have to bow down in front of the USD’s strength. In case of the Crude, energy traders may curtail their longs favoring oil prices as trade-tussles and expected increase in global production are likely to play their role going forward.

Technical Analysis

With the 50-day SMA & short-term descending trend-line aptly restricting the EURUSD’s upside, the pair is likely to revisit the 1.1600 and the 1.1540 supports before aiming the 1.1500 during further declines. However, an upside break of 1.1735 TL could trigger the pair’s rally towards 1.1840 and then to the 1.1935-40 resistances. In case of the GBPUSD, the pair recently dipped beneath the immediate upward slanting TL, at 1.3255 now, which signals the pair’s additional drop to 1.3145 and the 1.3110 rest-points while sustained trading beyond 1.3255 can have 1.3300 trend-line and 50-day SMA level of 1.3335 as follow-on barriers to conquer in order to target 1.3385 & 1.3450 numbers to north. Moving on, the USDJPY can now look for 112.80, 113.40 and 113.80 till it trades above 112.30 with 112.00 and 111.40-30 being strong downside levels to watch whereas USDCAD needs to conquer 1.3265 in to regain its status above 1.3350 but a downside break of 1.3050 TL can print 1.2960 as quote. Furthermore, AUDUSD indicates 0.7300 and 0.7230 to appear on the chart with 50-day SMA level of 0.7490 being nearby crucial resistances while NZDUSD can test 0.6715 & 0.6625 during ifs further south-run with 0.6780 & 0.6835 acting as short-term important resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

In addition to steady buildup of U.S. inflation pressure likely helping the Federal Reserve to increase its rate-hike pace, China’s lack of retaliation to Mr. Trump’s latest list of $200 billion Chinese goods to bear additional tariffs and optimism surrounding strong US earnings also helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to maintain its strength on Thursday. As a result, the EUR had to bear the loss as being without any major catalysts to follow but the GBP witnessed pullback on Theresa May’s fresh blueprint of Brexit proposal that signals softer departure from the EU with customs region favoring free movements of goods. In case of trade-related currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, absence of China’s tough response to Mr. Trump helped trigger short-covering but the Canadian Dollar’s gains were challenged by the dip in Crude prices as concerns favoring Libyan oil’s return to market grew stronger. Moving on, the JPY kept declining against the greenback due to perceived monetary policy divergence between the Fed & the BoJ while Gold recovered some of its latest losses.

During late-Thursday, the U.S. President Donald Trump warned his UK counterparts of killing any future US trade relations if she wish to go ahead with present Brexit proposal as the same supports free movements of goods between the UK & the EU. Following the threat from her guest, office of UK PM said Mrs. May will soon sit down with Mr. Trump to clarify how the proposal isn’t harmful for their relations; though, it couldn’t help the Pound which dropped heavily on Friday.

Other than Donald Trump’s threat to UK, commodity basket also witnessed a blow when China registered record high trade surplus with the U.S. The same heightened risk sentiment in the market as the data arrived at a time when not only US but some other developed world countries are also against China’s trade policies at WTO. With this, the commodity-currencies, namely AUD, NZD & CAD, again traded southwards whereas the US Dollar maintained its across the board strength.

Given the trade related problems are in lime-light, be it at UK or at WTO, political developments surrounding the same may compensate for the lack of big economic release for the day. The only important stat that should be observed is Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment from US. The monthly consumer confidence gauge is likely to remain mostly unchanged with consensus indicating 98.1 mark versus 98.2 prior.

As US data-point isn’t likely to harm the greenback’s present strength, the currency might end-up posting a positive weekly closing with Mr. Trump having an upper hand at global trade bargains. Though, any disappointments from the WTO’s review of Chinese trade policy and/or UK’s refrain to respect US trade demands could negatively affect the USD and in-turn help commodity basket, EUR and the safe-havens.

Technical Talk

Having reversed from descending trend-line & 50-day SMA, the EURUSD is likely taking rest around 1.1650-45 before targeting the 1.1600 mark during its further downside whereas the 1.1700 & 1.1760 may restrict the quote’s near-term advances. Further, USDCHF’s sustained trading above 1.0000 psychological-magnet signals brighter chances of its additional rally to 1.0040 and the 1.0055 prior to highlighting the 1.0100 mark for the Bulls; however, a downside break of 1.0000 can avail 0.9990 & 0.9945 follow-on supports. At last, the EURCHF must conquer the 100-day SMA level of 1.1715 in order to aim for the 1.1770 & the 1.1800-1.1805 resistance-zone else it can revisit the 1.1655-50 and the 1.1615 support-levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Not only welcome inflation numbers and hawkish comments from some of the FOMC members, absence of Chinese authorities’ counter-attack on the newly announced list of $200 billion goods to bear additional tariffs from the U.S. helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post a positive weekly closing. The greenback’s surge was strong enough to drag JPY & Gold downwards whereas pessimism at China proved to be negative for commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD. The CAD couldn’t justify BoC’s rate-hike and readiness to announce some more as Crude prices dropped on receding supply-crunch fears after Libya said to restore its production and global energy-leaders stand ready to increase their output. Moving on, the EUR had to bear the burden of disappointing data-points and Trump’s comments mentioning EU as a foe while the GBP failed to enjoy upbeat economics after the U.S. President raised doubts over post-Brexit UK-US trade relations after observing Mrs. May’s draft proposal that showed close ties with EU even after leaving the region.

While receding Sino-US trade tensions helped the greenback during last-week, start of the present week wasn’t in favor of the USD Bulls when Mr. Trump reformed his wordings towards British-American trade-relations after Brexit. Moreover, investors remained worried ahead of Trump-Putin meet and also responded to softer Chinese GDP & Industrial Production with cold blood while praising Retail Sales’ rise. As a result, the commodity-linked currencies managed to recover some of its latest losses but the Crude kept declining as Saudi Arabia seemed exporting more oil and US may use its strategic oil reserve to counter prevailing price-hike. In case of the EUR, the regional currency benefited from the USD’s decline while GBP also gained ahead of British lawmakers’ vote on amendments to Brexit legislations considering Theresa May’s latest victory in Cabinet for her proposal.

Having witnessed initial response to China’s data-points and political news emanating from UK, US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, market watchers are ready to forecast US Retail Sales and Empire Manufacturing Index, followed by New Zealand CPI. Consensus signal a 0.4% rise in Retail Sales against 0.8% prior while Core Retail Sales may also print 0.4% number compared to 0.9% earlier. Further, the Empire State Manufacturing Index could flash 20.3 mark versus 25.0 whereas New Zealand’s quarterly CPI is likely to remain unchanged at 0.5%.

In case of the political front, Trump-Putin meet at Helsinki could acquire the front-line before British votes on Brexit amendments. Mr. Trump has already criticized EU before meeting Russian President and has paved the way for a smoother talks but his demands to increase global oil outputs and reveal more facts concerning 2016 Presidential election might not be much welcomed by Mr. Putin. Moving forward, British policymakers may support many amendments to the Theresa May’s initial Brexit proposal and could try derailing her leadership but Mrs. May’s view of soft Brexit might over the opponents.

Hence, despite Japan’s absence from trading floors on Monday, slew of top-tier releases from US & New Zealand, coupled with Trump-Putin meet and voting on Brexit at UK, could constitute an important trading day for global markets.

Technical Talk

USDCAD’s U-turn from 1.3215-20 might be challenged by an ascending trend-line around 1.3100, if not then the 1.3060 & the 1.2980 could reappear as quotes. Alternatively, the 1.3165 & the 1.3200 can please the buyers before questioning them with 1.3215-20 resistance-region. In case of the NZDUSD, the 0.6800 and the 0.6830 are likely nearby resistances that the pair needs to conquer in order to aim for the 0.6860 while 0.6750 & 0.6715 can limit the pair’s immediate declines. Additionally, GBPCHF witnesses pullback from 1.3265-75 resistance-confluence in direction to the 1.3240 & 1.3200 but an upside clearance of the 1.3275 can quickly flash 1.3315 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Despite registering solid Retail Sales numbers, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) ended up closing in negative territory on Monday as comments from an FOMC member derailed speculations concerning increased pace of rate-hikes at a time when global policymakers and IMF consider Donald Trump’s trade protectionism as a global threat. Even if the greenback failed to start the week on a positive note, JPY & Gold couldn’t deny sellers on the Japanese holiday as White House officials continued trying to justify their tough stand on trade and termed retaliations from other countries as WTO breach, which in-turn depicted their strength in global trade system and favor for the USD. However, the same wasn’t right with EUR that benefited from USD’s decline whereas GBP dropped on the news that Theresa May accepted four amendments to her Brexit Customs Bill after some of her own party-members voted against the initial draft. Moving on, the AUD, NZD & CAD took advantage of China’s upbeat Retail Sales published early-day and weaker US currency but the Crude plunged after Saudi Arabia was said to export more oil and Libya is also restarting its production.

During early-Tuesday, unexpected rally in RBNZ’s preferred gauge of inflation propelled New Zealand Dollar across the board while Crude continued on its south-run contrary to the fact that Geo-political crisis at Norway is restricting its output as US is likely to use its strategic oil reserve to tame rallying energy prices. Additionally, the AUD also witnessed additional recovery when RBA minutes revealed that the Australian central bank expects stronger economy cutting down the Unemployment and lift inflation. At political front, US President Donald Trump shocked his own colleagues when terming Russia as a good friend and denying its intervention in 2016 Presidential election.

Hence, all in all it was a good start to the crucial day comprising US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s first testimony and the UK Employment report. Though, investors remained a bit cautious considering US’s tough stand on international trade likely hurting the global growth. As a result, the USD was on it’s positive marks again but the Gold recovered some of its latest losses.

Looking at the economic calendar, the first release to offer noticeable market moves will be British job numbers. Among them, increase in Claimant Count Change to +2.3K from -7.7K could disappoint GBP buyers while Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings aren’t expected to change from their 4.2% and 2.5% respective numbers. After then, US Industrial Production could offer intermediate USD moves with consensus favoring +0.5% growth versus -0.1% earlier contraction.

Having analyzed UK job stats and US industrial production, traders would turn to the biggest event of the day, i.e. Fed Chair’s testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee. In his appearance, the central-banker will first read the prepared statements supporting recent semi-annual Fed policy report and then answer questions asked by the committee. During the recent semi-annual report, the Fed praised economic momentum of the U.S. and proposed two more rate-lifts by the year-end. Even if Mr. Powell isn’t expected to step back from his hawkish mood, needless to mention about his refrain to criticize Donald Trump’s trade protectionism, his ability to convince the Banking Committee towards four rate-hikes a year plan will be crucial to watch.

Given the forecast concerning British data-points signaling further weakness for the GBP, contrast to upbeat consensus for US Industrial Production and Fed Chair’s testimony, the greenback is likely to maintain its latest strength unless Mr. Powell fail to answer questions about undermining the trade-protectionism as a threat to Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

Technical Talk

Having bounced off the 1.3100, the GBPUSD again rises towards the descending trend-line resistances, at 1.3280, break of which can escalate its recent recovery to 50-day SMA level of 1.3320. However, a downside break of 1.3190 can drag the quote to 1.3145 & 1.3100 for one more time. Further, the USDJPY seems trading in the 112.15-112.80 range with either side breaks signaling 111.60 and the 113.20 on the chart respectively. It should also be noted that CHFJPY needs to clear the 112.95-113.00 resistance-confluence, comprising 200-day SMA, in order to aim for the 113.30 & 113.65 otherwise it can come back to 112.55 and the 112.00 re-test.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Tuesday proved to be a good-day for the greenback buyers when Fed Chair’s testimony to Senate Banking Committee revealed upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy favoring gradual interest-rate lifts. Not only Mr. Powell’s hawkish statements but better than expected Industrial Production growth also helped investors to care less for Donald Trump’s trade-protectionism and recent U-turn from criticizing national intelligence agency for Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election.

On the other hand, the EUR kept trading southwards with not much information to gauge from their home-land while the GBP plunged across the board as hike in UK Claimant Count Change and Theresa May’s struggle to maintain her leadership at British Parliament portrayed the Pound’s weakness. Moving on, the AUD, NZD & CAD also had to decline against the USD as stronger greenback negatively affects the commodity-basket whereas strong U.S. economic scenario seems hurting the JPY & Gold’s safe-haven appeals. Additionally, Crude prices couldn’t stop their previous downturn after industry report showed surprise hike in US inventories.

While presence of important details/events diverted market attention off the Sino-US trade tussles during Tuesday, the same is likely to happen today as headline inflation numbers from UK & EU, US housing market stats and second part of the Fed Chair’s testimony could rule trade sentiments.

Forecasts suggest the UK CPI to post 2.6% mark against 2.4% and the EU Final CPI to remain unchanged at its initial prediction of 2.0%. In case of US housing market stats, the Building Permits may rise to 1.33M versus 1.30M earlier while the Housing Starts could soften to 1.32M from 1.35M prior. It should also be noted that US official Crude inventory release, likely to flash -3.4M mark compared to -12.6M previous, seem important for the energy traders.

Other than aforementioned data-points, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will be present for his second round of testimony, this time in front of the House Financial Services Committee. He is expected to maintain yesterday’s hawkishness while reading prepared speech but may be asked to clarify his views on how trade-barriers could raise bars for the Fed’s future monetary policy moves.

To sum up, an economic calendar having some crucial details/events is likely to keep dimming trade-war concerns’ impact on market. However, Fed Chair’s acceptance to the fact that global war might challenge the central-bank’s hawkish assessment, together with welcome inflation prints from EU & UK, could trim some of the recent USD gains.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD’s inability to surpass the 0.7440 dragged it beneath immediate TL support, which in-turn points to its further declines towards 0.7330 and the 0.7300 marks while 0.7410 can offer quick resistance in case prices take a U-turn from present levels. Further, USDCHF bounced back above 0.9985-90 and may revisit the 1.0030 and the 1.0065 resistances with the 0.9940 being follow-on support to avail during the pair’s dip below 0.9985. At the end, GBPNZD’s sustained trading beneath a month-old ascending trend-line favors the pair’s additional south-run to the 1.9260-55 and the 1.9200 rest-points; though, an upswing beyond the 1.9430 might not hesitate flashing 1.9500 as a quote.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 19 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

So far it seems a good week for the USD buyers with Fed Chair’s hawkish testimony and upbeat Industrial Production, coupled with welcome earnings report, taming fears of global trade-war. However, the economic platter has fewer things to offer going forward, which in-turn could divert market attention back to Sino-US trade-tussles. On the economic side, UK Retail Sales, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Canadian CPI & Retail Sales can provide intermediate trade opportunities.

Let’s discuss fundamentals concerning each one of them in detail.

A Week Full of Positivity For The Greenback

Not only upbeat data-points and FOMC members’ optimistic comments favoring increased pace of Fed’s rate-hikes but pessimism at EU-UK and China’s refrain to retaliate on US President’s fresh tariff threat also resulted a week full of positivity for the greenback during last-week. With this, the EUR sellers gave more importance to soft ZEW numbers whereas GBP failed to respect welcome data-points due to Mr. Trump’s threat to cancel US-UK trade-ties in case of soft Brexit. Moving on, the AUD, NZD & CAD kept bearing the burden of China’s economic weakness negatively affecting the commodity front while JPY & Gold lost their risk-safety allure because of rising USD. Furthermore, Crude prices plunged in spite of declining US stockpiles as restoration of output at Libya and Saudi Arabia’s readiness to pump more oil into the market pleased energy Bears.

So Far So Good For The USD Bulls

Even after witnessing sluggish start to the week, mainly due to Mr. Trump’s negative comments on the U.S. intelligence while meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin and global policymakers’ criticism of US protectionism, the US Dollar seems running towards another positive weekly closing. The reason being welcome economic numbers and Fed Chair’s hawkish testimony. However, commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD are gradually recovering their latest losses on welcome stats at home and pullback in commodity prices.

In case of the EUR, the regional currency still needs some more boost, even after witnessing no change in strong EU CPI, in order to please buyers while the GBP continued on its downturn as weaker than expected data-points and political pessimism at UK play their parts. In all this, the JPY & Gold failed to please the Bulls due to stronger USD and the Crude also extended its downturn on supply worries.

While aforementioned catalysts played their role well till mid-week, early-Thursday release of AU employment details and Japanese export numbers helped AUD & JPY respectively for short time after the release. Though, threat by Chinese policymakers to introduce some of restrictions on US goods to recover losses after Mr. Trump’s steel tariffs rejuvenated trade-war concerns and hurt the commodity basket.

Political Plays To Compensate For Lack of Big Releases

Having witnessed impacts of headline data-points/events so far during the present week, there are very few catalysts left on the economic calendar to observe. As a result, recently rejuvenated trade-war concerns, coupled with political threat for UK PM’s leadership, can acquire headlines for rest of the week.

Starting with the economics still left for publishing, the UK Retail Sales will be the first to entertain Pound traders with expected 0.1% growth against 1.3% prior. After that, the U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is likely to print 21.6 mark compared to 19.9 earlier. Following Thursday’s, Friday’s Canadian CPI & Retail Sales could perform its role. The CPI is likely to remain unchanged at 0.1% but the Retail Sales can reverse its previous contraction of -1.2% with +1.0% growth.

At the political side, the UK PM, Theresa May, only narrowly won parliamentary votes on Brexit amendments and realized a bigger threat to leadership when her own party-members are questioning the her Brexit proposal. As a result, Mrs. May has cautioned her colleagues to co-operate in resulting a soft Brexit in order to avoid another snap election. Hence, political plays at Britain is quite hot at this moment.
In case of the global trade-front, China’s recent signal to announce some more measures to counter US tariffs may push Mr. Trump to go ahead with closing another sector for his trade-partners, namely the Uranium business.

Hence, while lack of big releases could keep highlighting the political plays, USD may maintain its strength as comparative bargaining power of Mr. Trump and Fed’s hawkish policy signals are big benefits for the greenback. However, any harsh action by the Chinese authorities, together with EU & other WTO members, might not hesitate dragging the US Dollar southwards.

Further, political pessimism and weaker economics may continue hurting the UK currency while EUR, JPY & Gold can witness sustained downside pressure due to USD’s strength. Moving on, the AUD, NZD & CAD have to bear the burden of global trade tensions while Crude might find it hard to confront increased supply in order to recover its recent losses.

Technical Analysis

With its inability to surpass the two-month long descending trend-line, the EURUSD continue signaling 1.1530 and the 1.1500 re-test with 1.1700-1.1710, comprising 50-day SMA & aforementioned TL, seem restricting the pair’s near-term upside before highlighting the 1.1840 resistance. Further, GBPUSD has yet to close beneath the 1.3000 round-figure in order to meet the 1.2920 & 1.2800 supports otherwise it’s pullback to 1.3200 & 1.3260 can’t be denied. Moving on, USDJPY can keep indicating 113.40 & 113.80 as upcoming quotes unless declining below 112.00, which in-turn could trigger its dip to 111.30, while the USDCAD’s recent U-turn from 1.3260 may fetch it to the 1.3130 TL and the 1.3060 rest-points with 1.3215-20 & 1.3255-60 acting as nearby resistances. Additionally, AUDUSD has to clear the 0.7300-0.7480 range in order to visit either the 0.7270 or the 0.7560 levels whereas NZDUSD has 0.6685 and 0.6660 as strong supports contrast to 0.6840 & 0.6900 resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[Wonel]

Fundamental analysis are important in every business. All the complex things are made of some basic things and if you have the basic knowledge then you can learn about the technical knowledge very easily. I usually rely on the fundamental analysis. What is your story?

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

In addition to nearly five decade’s low of US Jobless Claims and better than expected Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, fundamental & political negativity at rest of the major developed economies also supported the US Dollar to mark third consecutive gaining day on Thursday. Among the losing economies, China was on the headlines as plunge in Yuan dragged commodity-currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, downwards whereas GBP also extended its south-run due to disappointing UK Retail Sales figures joining political pessimism at Britain. Moving on, the EUR and the JPY witnessed pullbacks while Gold kept declining on the back of stronger greenback hurting safe-havens. Furthermore, the Crude prices stretched their latest recovery on comments from Saudi Arabia that showed the nation’s intention to not flooding the energy market unnecessarily.

While everything was in favor of the US currency, the U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments at CNBC’s interview gave a shock to global investors as Mr. Trump criticized Fed’s role of fueling the US Dollar that isn’t favorable to world’s largest economy. This was the first case in nearly two decades of US history when a President directly targeted Federal Reserve and undermined the Treasury committee by speaking on the strength of currency. Not only US President, but European commission also triggered market response to its communication requiring faster pace of Brexit talks specially at the time when UK PM lacks political support at home.

As a result, the US Dollar, EUR & GBP remained weak on early-Friday, which in-turn was supportive to the AUD, JPY, NZD & CAD. However, the JPY stretched its yesterday’s gains forward while Crude also pleased buyers considering supply crunch at Venezuela & Iran, coupled with recent statement from Saudi Arabia.

With the aftershocks of comments from US President, European Commission and Saudi Arabia are making investors busy, Canadian CPI & Retail Sales could add volatility into the global markets to please momentum traders for the rest of the day. Forecasts suggest no change in the headline CPI number of 0.1% but a reversal of -1.2% Retail Sales contraction to +1.0% growth.

Given the upbeat expectations of Canadian data-points, the CAD may move forward in recovering its losses while AUD & NZD could enjoy Friday if USD keep bearing the burden of Mr. Trump’s rhetoric comments. The EUR & JPY may witness some more good time but political problems at the UK can keep hurting the GBP.

Technical Talk

Even after witnessing pullback, the EURUSD continue signaling 1.1585 and the 1.1550 support re-test unless it manages to surpass the 50-day SMA level of 1.1690, adjacent to near-term descending trend-line of 1.1710. In case of the USDCAD, the 1.3215 and the 1.3125 can keep restricting the pair’s immediate declines with 1.3330 and the 1.3385 being important resistances to watch in case of the quote’s rise. Additionally, the EURAUD might find it hard to extend its latest recovery as the 1.5880-90 resistance-confluence still stand intact, which in-turn could drag the pair to 1.5770 and the 1.5700 supports; though, pair’s successful break of 1.5890 might not hesitate flashing the 1.5965 and the 1.6000 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

I like the balanced approach giving equal weight to Fundamentals & Technical Analysis.

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

In spite of receiving upbeat data-points and hawkish testimony from the Fed Chair, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t post a weekly positive closing at the end of last-week as U.S. President’s comments criticizing Fed’s rate-hike and accusing EU-China of manipulate their currencies spread fears that trade-war is likely entering into currency markets. With this, the greenback plunged on Friday, eroding all of its earlier gains, while helping the EUR to witness pullback. However, that move failed to help the GBP in countering pessimism backed by sluggish economics and Brexit uncertainty.

For the commodity-linked currencies, the AUD had to ignore strong employment stats due to soft Chinese numbers and trade-war threats but the NZD could enjoy short-covering whereas CAD justified the strength of CPI & Retail Sales numbers. Moving on, the JPY marked its first positive weekly closing with rising speculations that the Bank of Japan policymakers are discussing over monetary policy tightening but the Gold kept declining as break of important support and expected demand crunch from China did disappoint the Bullion buyers. Additionally, the Crude prices extended their south-run as rising US inventories and expected negative impacts of global trade-tussles weigh on Saudi Arabia’s comments signaling its understanding of not to over-supply the energy markets.

While early-Friday’s comments against the Fed and readiness to slap tariffs on all $500 billion worth of Chinese goods from Donald Trump dragged the USD southwards at the end of the week, the same moves remained present at the start of Monday as G20 kept criticizing US Protectionism and Trump’s rhetoric statements. As a result, the greenback kept witnessing downside pressure during early-trading, which in-turn was aptly enjoyed by rest of its counterparts. Out of them, JPY was the strongest gainer followed by the commodity-currencies and then the EUR & the GBP.

Looking forward, month-end lack of economics might challenge the trade-sentiment during Monday as US Existing Home Sales is the only data-point up on the calendar for release. Forecast suggest the housing market number to post 5.46M versus 5.43 prior and helping the USD to recover some of its latest losses. It should also be noted that US tech-giant Alphabet Inc. will publish its quarterly results during the later part of the day and may offer some moves to global financial markets specially at the time when EU has recently levied fine on the company.

At the political front, US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has shown readiness on the part of the U.S. to relinquish their trade barriers if other trade-partners take a step-back from their retaliation and remove benefits attached to domestic goods landing in US. However, the EU has already ignored such proposal and China isn’t also showing any inclination to follow US directives.

Hence, while lack of economics may restrict the global market moves on Monday, fears of trade-war spilling in currency markets and US housing detail could offer intermediate trade opportunities to investors.

Technical Talk

Not only 110.90-85 but the 50-day SMA & upward slanting TL, at 110.50 could also confine the USDJPY’s immediate downside, which in-turn signal brighter chances for the pair’s U-turn towards 111.40 and the 111.90 resistances. Further, the NZDUSD is near to trend-line resistances figure of 0.6830, breaking which it can rise 0.6860 while failure to surpass the same can well drag the quote to 0.6785 and the 0.6750 supports. At the end, NZDJPY keep indicating further downside towards 75.20-10 horizontal-support and then the 74.40-35 rest-point unless it clears the 76.65-70 resistance-confluence on a daily closing basis; though, 76.30 may please short-term buyers in case of the pair’s pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

With positive results from leading US companies and rising yields, backed by expectations of Fed’s sustained rate-hike pace, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to ignore softer Existing Home Sales figure and registered gains on Monday. On the other hand, the EUR & the GBP had no major releases/events to follow which in-turn dragged both of them southwards when greenback was ruling buyers’ minds but the JPY remained strong due to speculations that Bank of Japan may soon tighten its monetary policy. Moving on, AUD, NZD & CAD all had to bear the burden of plunge in Chinese Yuan and pessimism surrounding the world’s largest industrial players, i.e. China, whereas the Gold reversed its recent gains after USD strength did hurt safe-havens. Moreover, Crude marked its first negative daily closing in previous four-days as energy traders gave higher importance to risk of oversupply than US-Iran’s war of words.

After witnessing a welcome start to the week, the US Dollar carried its gains forward during early-Tuesday when disappointing Manufacturing PMI from Japan questioned hawks expecting BoJ’s monetary policy tightening. However, the U.S. President Donald Trump’s harsh comments against Iran did restrict the JPY’s losses but the same couldn’t help Gold as slew of monetary policy actions by China’s central-bank, indicating threat to one of the largest precious-metal buyer, coupled with rising USD, kept making the Bullion despicable among investor fraternity.

While Japanese PMI has already offered an active beginning to global market-players, Flash Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMIs from EU and Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs from the U.S., followed by New Zealand’s Trade Balance, could keep fueling trade sentiments for the rest of the day.

Looking at the forecasts, the EU Flash Manufacturing PMI may register a 54.7 mark against 54.9 prior whereas the Flash Non-Manufacturing PMI can dip to 55.0 from 55.2 earlier. In case of US PMIs, the Flash Manufacturing PMI might weaken to 55.1 against 55.4 previous but the Flash Services PMI could maintain its stand at 56.5 number. At the end, the New Zealand Trade Balance is expected to post 200M mark versus 294M.

If we look at the economics, the EUR, the USD and the NZD are all are likely to weaken but comparative strength of the US Dollar, mainly due to hawkish Federal Reserve, could keep helping the greenback to remain o positive side. Though, any increase in US-Iran tensions or negative announcements from trade front could challenge the USD optimists.

Technical Talk

Following its inability to conquer the 1.3160 barrier, the GBPUSD seems declining towards 1.3050 and the 1.3000 support re-test while 1.3120 can provide immediate resistance to the pair during its U-turn. Further, USDCHF’s bounce off the 0.9900 may help it revisit the 0.9960 and the 1.0000 levels but a downside break of 0.9900 can fetch the quote to 0.9855 rest-point. Additionally, the EURJPY may find it hard to dip beneath the 129.20-15 support-confluence and can witness pullback in direction to 130.80 & 131.50; though, failure to respect the 129.15 mark might not hesitate flashing the 128.50 and the 127.20-10 numbers on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……